DFS Sims Strategy: From Beginner to Winner

Winning a large DFS contest can feel a lot like winning the lottery. Exciting, but unrealistic. I am living proof it does not have to be that way, and the thing that changed it for me was a dfs sims strategy built around Stokastic's simulation tools. Not long ago I was an extremely casual player. Most of my contests were private ones with friends, and while I occasionally fired into the massive GPPs, I never came close to winning anything. That all changed once I started taking the Sims seriously.

I want to walk you through exactly how that happened, because the process is the part that transfers. The wins were nice. The repeatable way I get into contention is what actually matters, and you can copy it.

In Summary (TL;DR)

• A DFS sims strategy optimizes for win probability, not one projected score. Stokastic's Contest Sims simulate the contest tens of thousands of times and rank lineups by average simulated ROI.
• Learn the inputs first. I watch the daily strategy videos and the Live Before Lock show, then lean on Projections, Ownership, and Boom/Bust before I ever run a sim.
• GPPs and cash are opposite builds. The Sims and simulated-ROI workflow are a GPP tool. For cash games (double-ups, 50/50s) you want the highest-floor lineup built from projections instead.
• In showdown, the captain decides the slate. The captain earns 1.5x points, so picking the right one is the whole game. The Sims flagged captains I never would have considered on my own.
• Process over results. Even the best pre-lock lineup can finish near last. You manage that with bankroll discipline and contest selection, not by chasing a single outcome.
• The tools: Stokastic+ gives you Sims, the Lineup Generator, Projections, Ownership, Boom/Bust, Top Stacks, and Live Before Lock. New users can try the free sims first.

What a DFS sims strategy actually is

Most beginners build a lineup the same way I used to: stack up the highest projected players and hope. The problem is that a projection is a single number, and a tournament is decided by thousands of other people building around the same single numbers. You can have a "good" lineup on paper and still be drawing dead the moment the slate locks.

A sims strategy flips that. Instead of one projected score, Stokastic's Contest Sims simulate the entire contest tens of thousands of times, with correlation and a realistic field built in, and then tell you which lineups win the most often. You are no longer optimizing for points. You are optimizing for win probability, which is the only thing that pays in a GPP.

That distinction is why I started leaning on these tools in the first place, and it is the same reason Alex "Awesemo" Baker built the original projection engine years ago on Awesemo.com (now Stokastic.com). The whole philosophy of the site has always been to model the contest, not just the players.

How I learned to use the Sims (the part beginners skip)

Once I got access to the Sims, I knew the tool was only as good as my understanding of it. So before I chased any leaderboard, I spent time learning the inputs.

My process starts by watching the daily strategy videos and reading the articles from our content team. These come from some of the sharpest DFS players in the world, and they walk through tournament strategy, single-lineup building, and how to think about correlation. The Live Before Lock show is the one I never miss, because it covers late news right up against lock, when a ruled-out player or a batting-order change can completely reshape a slate.

Alongside the shows, I keep three free-tier data tables open while I work:

• Projections for the baseline expectation on every player.
• Ownership projections to see where the field is going to pile in, so I can find leverage off the over-owned chalk.
• Boom/Bust to understand a player's range, not just his median, since ceiling is what wins tournaments.

You can pull all of this from the NFL DataHub or the NBA DataHub, depending on your sport. Some days I am pressed for time and I just run the Sims and pick from the top of the list. Even that stripped-down version has been profitable, because the simulation is doing the heavy correlation work for me. The point is that you do not have to be an expert at anything. I sure was not when I started.

How to run the Sims: a worked example from a College Football GPP

My first real victory came on a College Football Saturday. I enjoy CFB and follow my team (Nebraska) closely, but I am no expert at crafting an optimal CFB lineup. The slates are huge and the scoring is volatile.

So I leaned entirely on the process. I opened the CFB Sims, adjusted the settings to match the contest I was entering (large field, the right max-entry pool, first-place-heavy payout), and then selected the 14 lineups with the highest average simulated ROI. That was the whole build.

Later that evening I checked my entries and could not believe it. I was in first place out of 8,000 entries, with a $10,000 top prize on the line. I eventually slipped to third, but I still cashed $2,500. It took me only a few weeks of using the Sims to get into a position to finish top three in a field that size, and I had never sniffed a cash in a big contest before that.

Showdown is a captain problem, and the Sims solve it

Two of my next wins came in single-game showdown contests, and showdown is where a sims strategy really separates you from the field.

The first was a Sunday morning game I happened to be watching anyway. I noticed DraftKings had a showdown contest for it, ran the Sims, and submitted a few lineups. The whole thing took five to ten minutes. By the end of the game I had won $1,000, and the winning lineup finished with a comfortable margin. A night like that always needs the games to break your way, so I am not going to pretend the build alone did it. What the Sims gave me was a correlated, leverage-aware lineup that was in a spot to win if the variance cooperated, instead of one that had no path even on a good night.

The biggest one came in a Sunday Night Football showdown. I adjusted the Sims for the contest layout (large field, max pool size, first-place-weighted payout) and generated lineups about 20 minutes before kickoff so the latest projections were baked in. Then I reviewed the top simulated-ROI lineups and selected the highest-rated ones plus a couple I liked.

One lineup that stood out was captained by Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs. I would never have put him in the captain spot on my own. In showdown, the captain earns 1.5x the points of a flex player, so getting that one slot right or wrong is most of your result. The Sims identified Doubs as an optimal captain leverage play, the build delivered, and from running the simulation to uploading lineups the whole thing took about five minutes.

That is the lesson. In showdown, the captain is the bet. The tool surfaces the captains the field is sleeping on by evaluating every option across the full range of simulated game scripts, which is exactly the spot I could never find by eyeballing projections.

Want this exact workflow? Stokastic+ is the subscription that unlocks the Contest Sims, the Lineup Generator, Projections, Ownership, Boom/Bust, and the Live Before Lock show. It is the same toolset I used for every win above, and it does the correlation and field-modeling work automatically so you do not have to. New users can start on the free sims, and code STOK10 takes 10% off your first Stokastic+ payment: see Stokastic+ pricing.

GPP versus cash: do not run the same lineup in both

One thing I had to unlearn early: the simulated-ROI workflow is a tournament tool. It is built to differentiate you in a large field where you only get paid for finishing near the top.

Cash games are the opposite problem. In a double-up or a 50/50 you only need to beat about half the field, so you want the highest-floor lineup you can build, not the highest-ceiling one. For cash, I lean on the Projections and the Lineup Generator to lock in safe, high-floor players, and I leave the simulated tournament pool and the leverage plays out of it. Same tools, different setting. Using a GPP build in a cash game is one of the most common ways new players quietly bleed money.

The repeatable daily process

Here is the version I actually run, in order:

1. Read the field and the news. Watch the daily strategy video and Live Before Lock for injury news and game-script reads.
2. Open the inputs. Projections, Ownership, and Boom/Bust from the DataHub, so I know where the field is and where the leverage is before I touch the Sims.
3. Set the contest. Match the Sims settings to the exact contest: field size, max pool, payout shape. This step is where most beginners go wrong, because a build for a 8,000-person GPP is not a build for a 50-max.
4. Run and read the ROI list. Generate lineups close to lock, then take the highest simulated-ROI builds plus a few I have a personal read on.
5. Late swap. Right up against lock, check for news. A ruled-out player or a lineup change is the single highest-value adjustment you can make in-slate.

That is it. On a busy day, steps three and four alone have been enough.

A realistic word on variance

It goes without saying that beating thousands of entries takes an element of luck. The simulation cannot remove that. What it does is get you into a position where luck can work in your favor instead of against you, because your build is sound, correlated, and leveraged before the games start.

The flip side is real too. Even the best pre-lock lineup can finish near the bottom on a given night. That is the nature of DFS, especially in high-variance sports. You manage it the boring way: size your entries sensibly, do not chase a bad night, and judge yourself on the long-run process rather than any single slate. There are no locks here, and anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something. The edge is in repeating a good process over hundreds of contests.

In Summary

I went from a casual player who never cashed a big GPP to someone who has finished top three out of 8,000 and won multiple showdowns, and the only thing that changed was my process. A dfs sims strategy does the part I am bad at (modeling the contest and finding leverage) so I can focus on the parts I am good at (reading news and picking from a strong shortlist). You do not need to be an expert. You need a solid foundation, and that is exactly what the Sims provide.

If you are serious about competing, this is the toolset I would start with. New users can run the free sims to see how it works, and code STOK10 takes 10% off your first Stokastic+ payment when you are ready to unlock the full Sims, Lineup Generator, Projections, Ownership, and Live Before Lock. Get yourself into contention with a Stokastic+ package. If you want the deeper tournament theory next, read my guide on how to win DFS tournaments, how to think about DFS bankroll management, and the fundamentals of DFS stacking strategy.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a DFS sims strategy?

A DFS sims strategy builds lineups by simulating the entire contest tens of thousands of times and ranking lineups by win probability, instead of just stacking the highest-projected players. Stokastic's Contest Sims handle the correlation and field-modeling for you and return the lineups with the best average simulated ROI.

Are DFS Sims good for beginners?

Yes. I was an extremely casual player when I started, and the Sims did the hard modeling work for me. The fastest way to learn is to watch a few of the daily strategy videos and the Live Before Lock show, then run the free sims on a small slate before you scale up.

Should I use the Sims for cash games?

No. The simulated-ROI workflow is built for tournaments, where you need to differentiate from a large field. For cash games like double-ups and 50/50s you want the highest-floor lineup built from Projections and the Lineup Generator, not the leverage-heavy tournament pool.

How do the Sims help in showdown contests?

In showdown the captain earns 1.5x points, so the captain choice decides most of your result. The Sims evaluate every captain across the full range of game scripts and surface optimal, often lower-owned captains the field overlooks, which is how I landed a Romeo Doubs captain build I never would have considered on my own.

How much does Stokastic+ cost and is there a discount?

Pricing for each Stokastic+ package is on the pricing page. New users can try the free sims first, and code STOK10 takes 10% off your first payment.