MLB DFS Correlation: Stacking And Pitcher Strategy For DraftKings & FanDuel

Baseball is a daily fantasy sport where your players tend to score in bunches or not at all, and understanding why is the difference between a lineup that spikes and one that dies quietly in the middle of the pack. That "score in bunches" idea is correlation, and it is one of the biggest levers in MLB DFS lineup construction on DraftKings and FanDuel. Below is how I think about it, how the Stokastic Sims build it in for you, and how to pair your pitcher so you are never rooting against your own roster.

What MLB DFS Correlation Actually Is

Correlation just means that certain players tend to score together. In baseball it is baked into the rules: runs come from rallies, and a rally is a chain of hitters who bat near each other in the order. If your leadoff man walks and your No. 2 hitter doubles him in, both of them bank fantasy points off the same sequence. If the No. 3 hitter then homers, three of your rostered bats just cashed on one swing. That is positive correlation, and it is why stacking several hitters from the same lineup is the foundation of MLB DFS.

The mechanic runs deeper than "they play for the same team." A baserunner forces the pitcher into the stretch and out of his comfortable wind-up. A big deficit brings in a tired middle reliever who serves up more damage. The scoring rewards it directly: on DraftKings a home run is worth 10 points on its own, and one crooked-number inning can lift several of your roster spots at once. Roster one hitter from a team and you are betting on that single plate appearance. Stack four or five in a row and you are betting on the whole inning, and MLB scoring pays out in innings, not at-bats. If you want the terms defined from scratch, the MLB DFS glossary covers the building blocks.

The flip side matters just as much. Two hitters in the same lineup are positively correlated, but a hitter and the pitcher he is facing are negatively correlated: for your bat to score, the pitcher has to fail, and vice versa. Ignore that and you build a lineup that fights itself. Respect it and every piece pulls in the same direction.

How Stokastic Sims Bake Correlation Into Your Lineups

The reason correlation is hard to do by hand is that a spreadsheet treats every player as an independent projection. It has no idea your No. 4 and No. 5 hitters rise and fall together. The Stokastic MLB Sims do. They simulate each slate thousands of times, and they carry the real correlation structure through every run, so your stacked hitters move up and down as a group the way they actually would on the field.

That solves the practical problem the old optimizers created. The Sims keep your stacked hitters adjacent in the batting order instead of scattering them across the lineup, and they factor that correlation in for you automatically. A few tools do the heavy lifting, and the full walkthrough lives in how to use the MLB DFS Sims:

• Contest Sims run your player pool against a large simulated contest field and rank every lineup by simulated ROI, correlation already built in. They generate and optimize the lineups for you.
• The Top Stacks Tool does the stack hunting for you. The tool surfaces the team stacks that pair the highest ceiling with the best leverage on a given slate, so you are not eyeballing which offense to build around.
• Ownership Projections tell you where the field is piling in, so you can find the correlated stacks nobody else is on.

This is the same simulation engine behind Awesemo.com, now Stokastic.com, and the current Stokastic tools apply the same stack, ownership, and leverage framework. You are not guessing which four hitters go together; the model has already simulated the slate thousands of times.

Build correlated lineups the fast way. The Stokastic MLB Sims simulate the slate thousands of times and rank every lineup by ROI with stacking correlation built in. New to Stokastic+? Use code MLBDFS10 for 10% off your first payment of the MLB package: start with the Sims.

Choosing A Stack Format That Maximizes Correlation

Once you accept that innings win, the question becomes how many hitters from one team to roster. First know your platform's cap: DraftKings lets you roster up to 5 hitters from one team, while FanDuel caps you at 4 per team, so the biggest primary stack you can build differs by site. The common MLB DFS stack shapes each trade off correlation for flexibility:

Stack Format	Where it fits	Correlation vs. flexibility
5-2-1 Or 5-3 (DraftKings Only)	Full 5-man primary plus a smaller secondary	Highest correlation; leans on one offense going off
4-4 Or 4-3-1 (FanDuel Max, Also DK)	Two team stacks, capped at 4 per team	Strong two-way correlation; great in large-field GPPs
3-3-2 (Both Sites)	Three partial stacks	More diversified; lower ceiling, balanced spread

There is no single right answer. In a big tournament where you need a huge score to win, the largest stack your site allows gives you the most correlated ceiling, since a full primary stack can account for a large share of your roster's scoring on a night the offense erupts. On DraftKings that is a 5-man stack; on FanDuel your ceiling shape tops out at a 4-man. When you want to differentiate or spread risk across two strong offenses, a 4-4 does the job on either site. The key is to keep your stacked hitters adjacent in the batting order so they share the same rallies, and to avoid stacking a team the whole field is already on unless the Sims say the ceiling justifies the ownership. For a deeper look at each shape, see the full MLB DFS stacking guide.

Quick rule of thumb: the bigger the field, the bigger the stack. A 5-man stack maximizes correlation for large-field GPPs; a 3-3-2 gives you more diversification when you want a balanced build.

Pairing Your Pitcher With The Right Side

Your pitcher is the other half of the correlation equation, and it is where a lot of lineups quietly lose. Two rules keep the whole roster pulling together:

1. Never stack hitters against your own starting pitcher. If you roster a strong pitcher and then stack the opposing lineup, you are betting on your own arm to get shelled. Root for one, and you root against the other. Stack your hitters against a different game entirely.
2. Stack your hitters against a vulnerable arm. The best offensive spots are lineups facing a pitcher who gives up hard contact and fly balls. Scan the opposing starter and weigh the stuff that predicts damage: a high HR/9, an elevated fly-ball rate, poor swinging-strike numbers, and a hitter-friendly park. Environment is a real multiplier here, and the top home-run parks play well above league average. A fly-ball pitcher in a home-run park is a prime stack target; a ground-ball arm in a pitcher's park suppresses your ceiling.

On the pitching side of your own roster, you want the opposite profile: a starter with strikeout upside facing a team that whiffs a lot, ideally in a park and matchup that limits the long ball. Target the arms with real K upside, exploit lineups with high strikeout rates, and balance a high-priced ace against a value starter who can outscore his salary. The ideal build is a strong pitcher in one game and a hitter stack teeing off in a separate game, so no single result can sink two parts of your lineup at once.

If you also bet, the same research travels: when a matchup screams offense, the MLB home-run props on OddsShopper let you shop that read across books.

Correlation, Ownership, And Leverage In GPPs

Correlation raises your ceiling; ownership decides how much that ceiling is worth. In cash games (double-ups and 50/50s) you just need to beat half the field, so you build the highest-floor lineup from projections and worry less about who else is on it. Tournaments are the opposite: your score matters relative to everyone else, so you want correlated stacks the field is under-rostering.

That is the leverage play, and it is the core of a contrarian MLB DFS strategy. The Sims and Ownership Projections flag spots where a strong, correlated stack is going overlooked because the projection sits a hair below the popular chalk. Rostering that stack gets you above the field on a lineup with real upside. Just remember that the Contest Sims, simulated ROI, and leverage framing are GPP tools; for cash, lean on the floor build instead. And MLB is a high-variance sport. Even the best pre-lock lineup can finish near the bottom on any given night, so size your entries sensibly and judge yourself over the long run, not one slate.

A Worked Example: Building A Correlated GPP Stack

Here is how the process looks when I sit down to build a tournament lineup. Say the slate has an offense in a great spot: a strong lineup facing a fly-ball starter in a hitter's park, with a total near the top of the board. I will build my player pool in the MLB Sims, then anchor a 5-man DraftKings stack around the top of that batting order, the No. 1 through No. 5 hitters, so my rostered bats sit right next to each other and share every rally.

From there I add a two- or three-man secondary stack from another high-total game to complete the 5-2-1 shape, which gives me a second offense that can carry the lineup if my primary team lays an egg. For pitching, I roster a strikeout arm from a third game, one facing a heavy-whiff lineup, so my pitcher is never throwing to hitters I need to score. Then I run the Contest Sims across a full simulated field, check where my exposure lands against the field's ownership, and nudge toward the correlated stacks that are coming in under-owned. Every lineup comes back ranked by ROI, and I ride the ones that pair the highest ceiling with the lowest ownership.

MLB DFS Correlation Strategy Summary

Correlation is not a trick or a single stat. It is the way baseball scoring actually works, and building your lineup to match it is one of the most reliable edges in MLB DFS. The quick recap:

• Stack hitters who bat next to each other so they cash on the same innings, not scattered one-off bats.
• Match your pitcher to a different game than your hitter stack, and stack against arms that give up fly balls and hard contact (a high HR/9 and an elevated fly-ball rate).
• Target high-total games and hitter-friendly parks, where the top home-run venues play well above average.
• In GPPs, use ownership to find correlated stacks the field is off; in cash, build for floor instead.
• Let the Sims carry the correlation math so you are not eyeballing which players go together.

Lean on the Stokastic Sims for the correlation, pair your pitcher with the right side, and you give yourself the ceiling to win a tournament instead of just cashing.

See Your Correlation Edge On The MLB DataHub

Want to see the correlation output on a live slate? The Stokastic MLB DataHub shows projections, ownership, and the Top Stacks read, and you can try the DFS Sims for free before you subscribe.

New to Stokastic+? The MLB package runs the Sims, Contest Sims, Top Stacks, and Ownership Projections that turn correlation from a concept into a ranked list of lineups. Use code MLBDFS10 for 10% off your first payment: get the MLB Sims.

FAQ

What is correlation in MLB DFS? Correlation is the tendency of certain players to score fantasy points together. In baseball, hitters who bat near each other in the order share the same rallies, so stacking them means one big inning can pay off several of your players at once.

Why should I stack hitters in MLB DFS? Because runs come from innings, not isolated at-bats. Stacking correlated hitters from the same lineup lets you capture a whole crooked-number inning, which raises your ceiling far more than rostering one hitter each from several teams.

Should I ever stack against my own pitcher? No. A hitter and the pitcher facing him are negatively correlated: for your bats to score, that pitcher has to get hit. Roster your pitcher from a different game than your hitter stack so no single result works against two parts of your lineup.

How do the Stokastic Sims handle correlation? The MLB Sims simulate each slate thousands of times and carry the real batting-order correlation through every run, so your stacked hitters rise and fall as a group. Contest Sims then rank every lineup by simulated ROI with that correlation already built in.

What is the best stack format for MLB DFS tournaments? It depends on the slate and your platform. On DraftKings, which allows 5 hitters per team, a 5-2-1 or 5-3 gives the most correlated ceiling when you love one offense. On FanDuel, capped at 4 per team, a 4-4 or 4-3-1 is your biggest primary stack. Either way, a 4-4 spreads risk across two strong lineups. Use the Top Stacks Tool and Ownership Projections to pick the format and team the field is under-rostering.