MLB DFS Home Run Projections Today: July 21 Targets
By Sam Smith
July 21, 2026
MLB DFS Home Run Projections Today: July 21 Targets
Tuesday's home run board on DraftKings has a clear center of gravity, and it isn't a mystery where the power lives. Stokastic's MLB DFS home run projections, modeled in the Sims and surfaced in the Data Hub, put Colorado's Hunter Goodman on top at a 26.5% chance to go deep, and the two highest team totals on the whole slate belong to a single game. That tells you where to point a tournament roster. What it doesn't tell you is where the leverage is, and the one number I keep coming back to is a 24.4% home run projection sitting at just 4.0% projected ownership. Hold that pairing, because it is the entire tournament game, and I will come back to it.
In Summary
- Top HR% Play: Hunter Goodman (COL) at 26.5%, the chalk with a real ceiling ($6,100, 16.4% projected ownership).
- The Leverage Bat: Munetaka Murakami (CWS) at 24.4% HR% and only 4.0% projected ownership.
- Best Value: Kyle Stowers (MIA) at $4,000, the best value among tonight's home run leaders at 2.28 projected points per $1K.
- The Stack To Build: Colorado Rockies vs. Washington, the two highest team totals on the board at 6.7 and 6.9.
- The Tool: every number here comes from the Stokastic Sims, surfaced in the MLB Data Hub.
Today's Top Home Run Projections On DraftKings
The place to start is the ranked board. These are the five hitters the Stokastic Sims give the best chance to hit a home run tonight, next to the DFS numbers that decide whether the ceiling is worth the roster spot: DraftKings salary, projected points, value (points per $1,000 of salary), projected ownership, and the hitter's team total.
| Rank | Hitter (Team) | Pos | HR% | DK Salary | Proj | Value | Own% | Team Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hunter Goodman (COL) | C | 26.5% | $6,100 | 10.6 | 1.73 | 16.4% | 6.7 |
| 2 | Munetaka Murakami (CWS) | 1B | 24.4% | $5,100 | 8.7 | 1.70 | 4.0% | 4.5 |
| 3 | James Wood (WSH) | OF | 24.2% | $6,900 | 12.7 | 1.84 | 14.3% | 6.9 |
| 4 | Yordan Alvarez (HOU) | OF | 24.1% | $6,600 | 10.2 | 1.54 | 7.6% | 4.9 |
| 5 | Mickey Moniak (COL) | OF | 23.8% | $5,700 | 10.6 | 1.86 | 11.7% | 6.7 |
The row that matters most isn't the one on top. Goodman's 26.5% is the highest home run projection on the slate, but at 16.4% projected ownership he is also the most popular power bat in the pool, so being right on him doesn't separate your lineup from the field. Murakami, one line down, carries a 24.4% home run projection at 4.0% ownership. Almost the same ceiling, a quarter of the exposure. That gap is where tournaments are won, and it is the pairing I flagged up top.
The Leverage Play: A Worked Example In HR% Vs. Ownership
In a large-field tournament you don't just need a hitter to go deep. You need him to go deep while most of the field is somewhere else, because that is what turns a home run into a jump up the standings instead of a wash against everyone who owned the same bat. So the read on this board is a two-part test: how high is the home run projection, and how low is the projected ownership behind it?
Work the top of the board through that test and Murakami is the cleanest answer. Here is the example, side by side: Goodman projects for a 26.5% home run chance at 16.4% ownership; Murakami projects for 24.4% at 4.0%. You give back roughly two points of home run probability to get a bat that four times fewer lineups will have. When both hitters homer, the Goodman rosters cancel out against each other while the Murakami rosters climb. That two-point trade for a quarter of the field is the calculation I run on every power bat.
Murakami is not the only one. Matt Olson (ATL) sits at a 21.9% home run projection and just 3.9% projected ownership, and Cal Raleigh (SEA), tied with Olson at 21.9%, is on only 4.1% of rosters. Both sit among the top nine home run projections on the board and the field is almost entirely ignoring them. Each fits the same shape of a leverage play: a real ceiling the Sims can see, at an ownership number that says the field can't.
Where these numbers come from: the Stokastic Sims simulate the full DraftKings slate thousands of times to project every hitter's home run chance, fantasy points, and ownership in one place. Code HRUPSIDE10 takes 10% off your first month of Stokastic MLB: start here.
Value On A Budget: Points Per $1K
Leverage is only half of a roster. The other half is salary, because every dollar you spend chasing a ceiling at the top is a dollar you can't spend elsewhere. That is where the value column earns its keep: it measures projected points per $1,000 of salary, and the cheap power bats are how you fit two or three home run shots into one lineup instead of one.
The standout is Kyle Stowers (MIA) at $4,000, batting leadoff, with a 22.1% home run projection and the best value on this board at 2.28. Right behind him is Jake Burger (TEX) at $3,600, a 20.4% home run projection at 2.16 value and only 3.9% projected ownership, which stacks the value angle on top of the leverage angle. Raleigh, again, does double duty: $4,000, 1.90 value, and that same 21.9% ceiling. Even Moniak, back in our top-five table at $5,700, grades out at 1.86 value while carrying a 6.7 team total, which is a rare combination of a mid-salary bat in a premium run environment.
The pattern is that the cheapest power on this board is also some of the least-owned, so the value plays and the leverage plays are frequently the same names. Build around them and the salary you save funds a swing at Goodman or James Wood up top.
The Power Stack: Colorado Rockies Vs. Washington
Everything so far points back to one game. The Colorado Rockies and Washington Nationals carry the two highest team totals on the slate at 6.7 and 6.9 implied runs, and that is the environment you stack for home run upside. It is not a coincidence that three of the top five home run projections come out of this single matchup.
On the Colorado side you get Goodman (26.5%) batting third and Moniak (23.8%) batting second, both at that 6.7 team total. On the Washington side, James Wood leads off at a 24.2% home run projection, the highest projected point total among tonight's home run leaders at 12.7, and a 6.9 team total, which is the best combination of ceiling and floor on this board. Stacking bats from a high-total game clusters your roster in the same run environment, so when the game goes the way the projections expect, several of your hitters cash at once instead of one at a time. If you want a broader view of how tonight's builds are shaping up, the today's MLB DFS picks hub tracks the full slate, and the MLB DFS strategy breakdown covers how the Sims weigh these spots.
Building It In The Data Hub
The projections in this article are not something to eyeball once and forget. Ownership shifts as lineups lock and salaries get bid up, so the leverage bat at noon isn't always the leverage bat at first pitch. The MLB DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub update through the day, so you can watch a name like Murakami or Olson and see whether the field is still off him when you build. If you want the mechanics behind sizing exposure to a low-owned bat, the DFS ownership and leverage guide walks through it.
The specific thing I'd watch: whether Murakami's 4.0% projected ownership is still under 6% by first pitch. As long as it is, the leverage play I built the whole read around is still live, and the same goes for Olson at 3.9% and Burger at 3.9%. If any of them climbs into double digits once lineups lock, the edge has moved and I'd re-sort the board to find the next low-owned ceiling.
How I'd Approach Tonight
Pull it back up to the slate. The chalk with a ceiling, Goodman and Wood, is a fine base for a tournament roster because their home run projections earn the ownership. But the lineups that actually separate are the ones that pair that base with the bats the field is fading, and tonight those are sitting right there in the projections: Murakami at 4.0% ownership, Olson at 3.9%, Burger at 3.9% and cheap. That 4.0% number I opened with is the point of the exercise. Same ceiling as the chalk, a fraction of the exposure. Finalize which of them is still low-owned when you build, and you have a roster that wins when the power shows up instead of one that only ties the field.
New to Stokastic? The Sims model every DraftKings MLB slate to project home run chance, fantasy points, and ownership for every hitter, so you can find the low-owned power in seconds instead of by hand. Code HRUPSIDE10 takes 10% off your first month: Get the MLB Data Hub.
FAQ
What are MLB DFS home run projections? They are the Stokastic Sims' estimate of each hitter's percentage chance to hit a home run on tonight's slate, shown next to DFS inputs like DraftKings salary, projected points, value, and ownership. They tell you where the power upside is for tournament rosters, not who to bet.
Who has the best home run projection today, July 21? Hunter Goodman (COL) tops the board at a 26.5% home run projection, followed by Munetaka Murakami (CWS) at 24.4% and James Wood (WSH) at 24.2%.
How do I use HR% for DFS tournaments? Pair a high home run projection with low projected ownership. A bat like Murakami at 24.4% and 4.0% ownership gives you a ceiling close to the chalk while far fewer lineups have it, which is where large-field tournaments are won.
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