MLB DFS Picks Today: Live Before Lock (July 4)

Happy Fourth of July. Eric "EMac" MacPherson broke down the full 11-game main slate on Stokastic's MLB DFS Live Before Lock, and this is his read on where the DraftKings and FanDuel edges are: the pitchers to build around, the stacks in the best spots, and the one bat he's calling for a home run. Every pick below is grounded in the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims and projections, and the full show is embedded at the bottom. For the daily numbers behind these plays, our MLB DFS projections hub ranks every arm and bat by Sims projection and projected ownership.

In Summary

• Top Pitcher: Chris Sale (ATL), the slate's best arm and its chalk, with a 30% strikeout rate into a swing-and-miss Mets lineup.
• Best Value Arm: Sonny Gray (BOS), a phenomenal SP2 at a reasonable salary against a high-strikeout Angels order.
• Leverage Play: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) in the late 10 p.m. window is heavily under-owned, the pivot off Sale.
• Stacks: San Francisco (SF) at Coors, Miami (MIA) and the Athletics (ATH) in wind-blown West Sacramento, and Milwaukee (MIL) against a fading Merrill Kelly (ARI).
• Home Run Of The Night: Brice Turang (MIL).
• Build it all in the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims & optimizer.

The Pitcher Pool At A Glance

The Pitchers To Build Around

Chris Sale (ATL) vs. New York Mets is the top play and, by the Sims, the chalk of the slate near 40% projected ownership. Sale has been carving hitters up, running a 30% strikeout rate with six-plus punchouts in all but two starts this season, and the Mets bring four high-strikeout bats to the plate for him to feed on. His salary sits right next to Yamamoto's, and the strikeout ceiling is what tips it. If you want to come off the crowd a touch, trimming Sale to the mid-30s in exposure is reasonable.

Sonny Gray (BOS) vs. Los Angeles Angels is the SP2 to pair with him. Gray does not have Sale's strikeout ceiling, but at a very reasonable salary he draws an Angels lineup stacked with whiff, including Zach Neto (LAA) near a 33% strikeout rate and Jo Adell (LAA) around 25%. Gray has surrendered more than three earned runs in only one outing all year, which is exactly the kind of stable floor you want out of your second arm. On FanDuel he is worth doubling the field.

Jesús Luzardo (PHI) vs. Kansas City Royals is squarely in the mix. Kansas City limits strikeouts as a team, but the back of their order is close to powerless, so the bottom four of that lineup should be a comfortable path for him. The one caution: Jac Caglianone (KC) can make left-handers pay with power in a lefty-lefty spot, so Luzardo can't afford to nibble.

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) vs. San Diego Padres is the leverage arm. He headlines the lone 10 p.m. game, and the Sims had him down near 1% projected ownership while Sale sat at 40%, an enormous ownership gap for two pitchers at a similar salary. Push Yamamoto toward 20-30% and you're double the field or more on a strong arm backed by the Dodgers offense. The Padres roster better contact hitters than most, but Yamamoto's floor and that leverage make him the pivot of the slate.

Sean Burke (CWS) vs. Cleveland Guardians is the cheap arm to know. Around $7,000 on DraftKings, Burke draws a Cleveland lineup with five bats at a 25% strikeout rate or higher. His own strikeout rate (24.4%) isn't elite and Cleveland has used an opener behind him before, but at that price the strikeout upside is very much a punt SP2 worth playing.

Arms To Avoid

• Robbie Ray (SF) At Coors Field. Ray has not cleared the fifth inning in his last three starts at altitude. Coors flattens his slider, the Rockies carry a 5.8 team total, and there are simply too many better arms to pay for this risk.
• Hunter Greene (CIN). This is his first start back after an arthroscopic elbow procedure, so expect a 75-to-80-pitch cap. He'll challenge hitters and rack up strikeouts, but a bandbox park, hitting weather, and an $8,700 tag are too much to trust on debut.
• Sandy Alcantara (MIA) At The Athletics. West Sacramento's hitter-friendly park is the wrong place to spend up on him. His offense is far more interesting than his arm here.
• Brandon Young (BAL) At Cincinnati. A matchup-dependent arm you want in a pitcher's park, not in Cincinnati with the wind up. Save him for a better spot.

The Stacks To Target

San Francisco Giants (SF) at Colorado headline the board. The Rockies swapped in rookie left-hander Sean Sullivan (COL), a No. 28 org prospect who has allowed 16 earned runs over his last three starts, and this is Coors Field. The Giants are the chalkiest stack on the slate, with Heliot Ramos (SF) one of the highest-owned players out there, but even at roughly 30% exposure this spot is worth being on.

Miami Marlins (MIA) and the Athletics (ATH) in West Sacramento are the weather stack. Kevin Roth's forecast has a 10-to-12 mph breeze blowing out to center and left-center with mid-80s temperatures, classic hitting weather in a park that already plays hot. The A's are banged up and missing several regulars, but that Triple-A ballpark keeps them a strong, affordable DFS offense. Stack both sides.

Milwaukee Brewers (MIL) at Arizona are the leverage stack. Merrill Kelly (ARI), now in his age-36 season, has been vulnerable to left-handed hitters for two-plus years, and the field looks a step slow to Milwaukee here with Coors and West Sacramento soaking up the attention. Target the Brewers' power bats in the top six of the order.

Boston Red Sox (BOS) at the Angels are a lighter play against Sam Aldegheri (LAA). Boston's offense has been among the league's weakest, but Aldegheri gets very few strikeouts and has given up 11 runs and three homers across two of his last three starts. It's a spot to attack, though Boston doesn't always give you a clean five-man stack, so a shorter 3-to-4-man build fits better. Tampa Bay (TB) at Houston against Hunter Brown is also worth some exposure.

One name to pass on tonight: Colson Montgomery (CWS), usually a favorite, runs into a lefty-lefty matchup against Parker Messick (CLE) that takes the shine off.

Home Run Of The Night

The freedom dong of the day is Brice Turang (MIL). He's the home run call for the Fourth, with Milwaukee's power in a good spot against Kelly.

How To Build The Slate

This is an 11-game, 22-team board, so ownership is spread thin, and I lean into that. Here's how I'm attacking it: cap pitcher exposure around 30%, mix your stack shapes (3-3, 4-2 and 4-3) with roughly a third of my builds going five-man on the big slate, and keep any single hitter near 30% at most. The clearest edge is the pitcher pool. Fading a slice of 40%-owned Sale to get my lineups overweight on roughly 1%-owned Yamamoto is free leverage in a top-heavy GPP, and it's where we'd spend our uniques. Run it all through the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims and optimizer to lock in projected ownership before you build, and check more MLB DFS picks for the rest of the slate.

Halfway through the season and there's a lot of baseball left. Get every slate's Sims, projections, and optimizer with ⚾ 15% off any DFS or Props package with code MLBLBL ⚾. Claim it here

Watch The Video

EMac walks through the full July 4 slate, every arm, every stack, and the live Sims build, on MLB DFS Live Before Lock. Watch on YouTube.

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