MLB DFS Live Before Lock Picks: Miller Or Webb? (7/24)
July 24, 2026
Bryce Miller, one of the featured players on today's slate.
In Summary
- Bryce Miller (SEA) is the most expensive pitcher on the board at $10,000, but Eric Lindquist thinks his price and Logan Webb (SF)'s $9,700 tag have it backwards: Miller's last few starts (4.34 ERA, 3.62 SIERA) are a real step down from his blistering 2.95-SIERA start to the year, while Webb is due positive regression (3.87 SIERA over his last couple of starts, mostly bad luck on balls in play) against an Angels lineup that strikes out constantly.
- Logan Webb (SF) is still the cash-game auto-play on both sites, no real alternative, targeted around 40-45% of Lindquist's DraftKings builds.
- Dustin May (STL) at $7,800 is Lindquist's highest-owned pitcher of the night, "way overweight" the field, against a Cincinnati Reds lineup that strikes out even more than the Angels do.
- Roki Sasaki (LAD) is only 6% owned in the field's Sims, and Lindquist wants to be "a lot higher than that," pointing to a filthy splitter and a strikeout rate (17%) he expects to climb.
- The Toronto Blue Jays against Patrick Sandoval (BOS) are Lindquist's favorite stack of the night, the team he says he'd deploy the most if he were playing single-entry.
Watch The Video
Eric Lindquist runs the full DraftKings and FanDuel build live, pitcher pool to stacks to home run plays, right up to Friday's lock.
Two Backwards Salaries: Miller At $10K, Webb At $9,700
Every build tonight starts with the same fork Lindquist keeps circling back to: Bryce Miller (SEA) is priced at $10,000, the single most expensive arm on the entire slate, facing the Texas Rangers. Logan Webb (SF) is $9,700 at home against the Los Angeles Angels. On paper that's a normal gap. Lindquist's argument is that it should run the other way.
Miller opened the season striking out everybody and walking nobody, a ridiculous 2.95 SIERA right out of the gate. Over his last few starts that's cooled off hard: a 4.34 ERA and 3.62 SIERA, still solid, but not $10K-arm solid against a Texas lineup that, without Corey Seager, isn't imposing enough on its own to justify paying the field's top price for a pitcher whose left tail (his chance of getting hit hard) looks meaningfully worse right now than Webb's. Webb, meanwhile, is one of the few pitchers on the slate who reliably eats innings and pitches deep, and he's taking on an Angels lineup that strikes out constantly against right-handers. His 3.87 SIERA over his last couple of starts is mostly bad-luck-on-balls-in-play, not declining stuff, and Lindquist reads that as a pitcher about to catch a positive bounce at a discount to the market's most expensive arm.
"If they had different salaries, if things had been different" is Lindquist's own framing for it: the matchup quality and recent form point one way, the DraftKings pricing points the other. That's not the same thing as calling either pitcher bad. Miller stays in the player pool. It's a case for weighting Webb over Miller relative to what their price tags alone would suggest, not for removing Miller outright.
| Pitcher (Team) | Price (DK) | Opponent | The read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Miller (SEA) | $10,000 | at Texas Rangers | Most expensive arm on the slate; Lindquist is underweight after a 4.34 ERA / 3.62 SIERA stretch |
| Logan Webb (SF) | $9,700 | vs. Los Angeles Angels | Cash-game auto-play on both sites; ~40-45% target; due positive regression per Lindquist |
| Dustin May (STL) | $7,800 | vs. Cincinnati Reds | Lindquist's highest-owned pitcher; "way overweight" the field |
| MacKenzie Gore (TEX) | $8,400 (FD) | vs. Seattle Mariners | 30-35% target, trimmed slightly; Mariners are dead-last in ISO vs. lefties |
| Joey Cantillo (CLE) | $9,400 (FD) | at Tampa Bay Rays | Slightly overweight if the walks stay in check |
| Shane McClanahan (TB) | n/a | vs. Cleveland Guardians | Roughly at the field on DraftKings; zero interest on FanDuel |
| Trevor Rogers (BAL) | $8,900 (FD) | vs. Atlanta Braves | ~10% target; moderate interest only |
| Trey Yesavage (TOR) | n/a | at Boston Red Sox | Faded; fastball command concerns against a red-hot Boston lineup |
The row worth sitting with is Miller's: it's the single most expensive pitcher on the board, and Lindquist is fading him below the field while he's overweight the two arms priced almost $2,000 cheaper.
Every number above comes from the same board you can build against yourself in the Stokastic MLB DataHub, the Sims, ownership projections and Top Stacks tool run live on the show.
Dustin May And Roki Sasaki: Where The Real Overweight Lives
Dustin May (STL) at $7,800 is the pitcher Lindquist is most stacked up on tonight, calling himself "way overweight" the field. The matchup is the same shape as Webb's: Cincinnati strikes out even more than the Angels do against right-handed pitching, with an 85 wRC+ that's well below league average even though the Reds' raw power numbers hold up better than that mark suggests. May did walk four batters in each of his last two outings after going months with barely any walk trouble at all, a wrinkle Lindquist isn't ignoring, but not one severe enough to knock him out of a projected fantasy line that's clearing the field. He's also the pitcher Lindquist is on the over for regarding his 5.5-strikeout prop.
Roki Sasaki (LAD) is the leverage pitcher Lindquist keeps coming back to. He's sitting at just 6% ownership in the field's Sims, and Lindquist says flatly he wants to be "a lot higher than that," likely into double digits. The stuff is real: a splitter Lindquist calls filthy relative to almost anyone else on the slate, the kind of pitch most pitchers coming over from Japan need to have just to make it. The swing-and-miss numbers haven't caught up to the raw stuff yet, a 25% swinging-strike rate that would normally translate into a strikeout rate well above the 17% Sasaki is currently running against left-handed bats, which is the one real risk in tonight's matchup given the lefties in the Mets' lineup. Lindquist was choosing between Sasaki and Trevor Rogers (BAL) for his second pitcher slot and lands on "the rookie side," Sasaki, for the bigger ownership gap.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) is the third arm Lindquist is actively overweight, and the matchup case is as clean as any on the slate: the Seattle Mariners are dead-last in the league in ISO against left-handed pitching and carry an 87 wRC+ against lefties on the season. Lindquist is targeting somewhere around 30-35% of his lineups on Gore, trimmed down slightly off his initial number, and the FanDuel gap is the tell: Gore is 14% owned there against Webb's 28%, half the ownership at a price ($8,400) that Lindquist says "sticks out like a sore thumb."
Joey Cantillo (CLE) gets a smaller version of the same treatment: not a matchup Lindquist loves for strikeouts on its face, but a pitcher with real strikeout stuff when his walks stay in check, priced at $9,400 on FanDuel with sub-10% ownership there, a real discount relative to the $9,700-and-up tier.
What FanDuel Looks Like Differently
FanDuel reshuffles the board in a way DraftKings doesn't. Webb remains the unquestioned cash play. Lindquist calls him "your mega chuck," with no real alternative if you're building for cash on FanDuel tonight. In tournaments, Gore's ownership gap (14% to Webb's 28%) is the entire case for pivoting there instead. Dustin May, at $8,600 on FanDuel, is Lindquist's next favorite arm in line behind the two of them. Bryce Miller pulls 14% ownership on FanDuel, more viable there than on DraftKings, but Lindquist is still underweight him relative to the field given the same regression concerns from above. Shane McClanahan gets zero interest from Lindquist on FanDuel ("none, zilch"), and Trevor Rogers, at 4% owned and $8,900, isn't something he expects to roster either.
On the hitting side, FanDuel's cheap-and-underpriced angle is Byron Buxton (MIN) at $3,600, a price Lindquist calls "way too cheap for his production," which is exactly why Buxton is the most popular hitter on the entire FanDuel slate. Royce Lewis (MIN) sits right next to him at $2,900. If the Sasaki/Gore chalk isn't for you, Lindquist points to Yordan Alvarez and Shohei Ohtani at $4,300 and $4,100 as lower-owned power options in that same range.
Build tonight's board before you lock anything. Check the same MLB DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub that power every number in this recap, then use code MLBLBL for 15% off any DFS or Props package.
The Stacks: Toronto Is The Favorite, Minnesota Is The Tool's Top Pick
Lindquist calls this "a very flat stack day," no team is separating itself the way a true chalk stack usually does on a normal slate. His favorite is unambiguous, though: the Toronto Blue Jays against Patrick Sandoval (BOS). If he were playing single-entry, Toronto is the team he says he'd deploy the most.
The build starts with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR), a piece Lindquist says most of the field won't be clicking on tonight but he is. Alejandro Kirk (TOR) is in the mix despite a rough season at the plate (a barrel rate under 3.5%) because the rest of the lineup construction around him still grades out well. Ernie Clement (TOR) rounds out the middle infield exposure, George Springer (TOR) gets a mention for his home run price on the board, and Daulton Varsho (TOR) fills out the rest of the build.
| Team | Stack Note |
|---|---|
| Toronto Blue Jays (TOR) | Lindquist's favorite stack; single-entry team of choice vs. Patrick Sandoval |
| Minnesota Twins (MIN) | Top stack in the Sims/Top Stacks tool; Lindquist is under Ryan Jeffers relative to the field |
| Chicago White Sox (CHW) | Underweighted by the field at ~2% vs. Spencer Arrighetti; Lindquist wants more |
| Baltimore Orioles (BAL) | Viable but secondary vs. Grant Holmes; weather isn't as strong as Toronto/Boston |
The Minnesota Twins are the top stack in Stokastic's own Top Stacks tool, built around Byron Buxton (MIN), Royce Lewis (MIN) and Ryan Jeffers (MIN). Lindquist's one real disagreement with the Sims here is Jeffers: the tool has him in roughly half of Minnesota lineups, and Lindquist thinks that's light. He plans to run more Jeffers than the tool is building, not less.
The stack Lindquist wants MORE of than the field is the Chicago White Sox against Spencer Arrighetti (HOU), currently sitting around 2% owned. His case is regression: Arrighetti is carrying a 1.81 HR/9 and a 4.70 SIERA, numbers Lindquist has flagged on the show for weeks as unsustainably bad, and he thinks the correction is finally arriving. Baltimore, against Grant Holmes (ATL), is the other stack he doesn't mind (Holmes's home run rate has come down but he's still "gettable"), though the hitting weather isn't as favorable there as it is at Fenway Park, where wind blowing out toward the Green Monster makes the Toronto-Boston game the best hitting environment on the slate. Outside those anchor stacks, the two individual bats Lindquist likes best that the Sims are also pushing are Jarren Duran (BOS) and Colton Cowser (BAL).
Worked Example: Reading A Salary Gap The Right Way
The Miller-Webb salary gap above is worth walking through as a template for how to read any pricing mismatch on a slate like this. Value in DFS isn't about which price is higher or which pitcher "feels" better. It's about what a price is asking you to believe relative to what the matchup and recent form actually support. Miller's $10,000 tag is asking the field to pay top dollar for the same pitcher who posted a 2.95 SIERA in April, but his actual form over his last several outings (4.34 ERA, 3.62 SIERA) is closer to a mid-tier arm. Webb's $9,700 is asking the field to pay slightly less for a pitcher who's actually seeing better matchup conditions (a strikeout-prone Angels lineup) and unlucky underlying numbers (3.87 SIERA that BABIP is dragging down) that point toward positive regression, not decline. Read that way, the $300 gap between them doesn't reflect the real gap in expected outcome, which is Lindquist's whole argument for leaning Webb over Miller regardless of which one "sounds" more exciting to roster.
The Bottom Line
Tonight's board comes down to salaries that Lindquist thinks are pointed the wrong direction and two clear leverage arms underneath them. Fade Miller below his $10K price, lean Webb for cash, and go overweight Dustin May and Roki Sasaki for tournaments. MacKenzie Gore and Joey Cantillo are the next tier of arms worth a real look. On the bats, Toronto is the stack of the night, Minnesota is the tool's top pick with more Ryan Jeffers than the Sims want, and the White Sox against a regressing Spencer Arrighetti is the field's biggest ownership miss. Build the same board yourself in the Stokastic MLB DataHub before tonight's lock, and check our MLB DFS stacking guide or contrarian strategy primer if any of the ownership or leverage language above is new to you. For yesterday's board, see the July 23 Live Before Lock recap.
Build Your Own Lineups
Everything on today's show ran through the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims: build the player pool, filter to your pitchers, see which stacks the Sims keep building around, and grade your lineup before lock. Code MLBLBL takes 15% off any DFS or Props package.