MLB DFS 8/10: Skubal Chalk, Lindquist's Best Slate
August 10, 2026
Monday's 10-game MLB slate has a quirk Eric Lindquist has wanted all season: every game starts after 7:00 p.m. Eastern, and six of the ten don't get going until after 9:00 p.m. That leaves a four-game early window that reports back roughly two hours of real information, stack results, weather, late scratches, before the rest of the slate locks. Lindquist is calling it his favorite slate of the year for exactly that reason, and almost every decision he makes tonight, how much Tarik Skubal (LAD) he plays, which stack he leans into late, comes back to what those first four games do.
Tarik Skubal — one of the featured players on today's slate.
The Quick Answer
Lindquist is playing Tarik Skubal (LAD, $10,700 on DraftKings, 58% owned on FanDuel) as a near-automatic cash piece against a Kansas City Royals lineup that's gone 1-6 since trading him away, but he's holding his DraftKings second-pitcher spot open for early information out of Dean Kremer (MIN) or Christian Scott (NYM). His flagship stack is Tampa Bay against Athletics starter Jacob Lopez at Sutter Health Park, and his best value read of the night is a barely-owned St. Louis Cardinals stack against a short-rest Andrew Painter (PHI). The full pitcher pool, the stack math, and why he's fading Arizona are below.
- Tarik Skubal (LAD) vs. Kansas City draws 58% FanDuel ownership and anchors Lindquist's builds on both sites; he's playing him in cash no matter how the early games break.
- Dean Kremer (MIN) vs. Baltimore is Lindquist's top DraftKings pivot, targeted at 20-25% of lineups on a park that suppresses left-handed power.
- Tampa Bay Rays against Jacob Lopez (ATH) is the stack Lindquist calls his favorite of the night, projected at roughly 30% of his builds.
- St. Louis Cardinals against a short-rest Andrew Painter (PHI) is Lindquist's biggest value angle, sitting at just 3.5-4.9% projected stack ownership.
- Arizona Diamondbacks against Gabriel Hughes is the fade: Lindquist calls it his least-favorite stack of the night despite it running second-most-popular on FanDuel.
Watch The Video
Eric Lindquist builds Monday's full pitcher pool and stack portfolio live below, including the FanDuel utility-slot rule and the late-swap plan for the evening window.
Pitching: Skubal Locked In, The Second Slot Stays Open
Skubal is the story on both sites. He's making his Dodger Stadium start after being traded away from Detroit, and he draws a Kansas City lineup that's been in freefall since the deal, swept by the Cubs and blown out by Arizona in between. Kansas City actually ranks sixth-best in MLB at avoiding strikeouts against left-handed pitching this season (21% K rate), but that number has crept up since July 1, and Lindquist traces it to two things: Bobby Witt Jr. missing time on the injured list, and Carter Jensen batting leadoff during that stretch instead of his usual five-hole. Today, Nick Loftin leads off and Jensen is back at five, which Lindquist reads as a red herring, not a real signal that Kansas City's lineup got tougher. OddsShopper's best number has the Dodgers at -275, with -300 available at other books.
| Pitcher | Team | Matchup | DK price | Lindquist's exposure | The read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | LAD | vs. KC | $10,700 | Locked in both sites, 58% FD-owned | Royals' K-rate spike since July 1 is a personnel blip, not a real matchup edge for KC |
| Dean Kremer | MIN | vs. BAL | Mid-tier | Targeting 20-25% | Target Field suppresses lefty power; Baltimore rolled out a righty-heavy lineup today |
| Christian Scott | NYM | vs. ATL | $7,400 | Alternative to Kremer | No real platoon split, strikes out both sides; light rain in the forecast |
| Mackenzie Gore | TEX | vs. LAA | $9,200 | ~9% DK | Preferred over Detmers; hitter-friendly Anaheim weather, weak Angels lineup outside Neto/Trout |
| Reed Detmers | LAA | vs. TEX | $8,500 | Similar to Gore | Cory Seager's lineup carries the fifth-highest K rate vs. lefties in baseball |
| Logan Henderson | MIL | vs. SD | $10,200 | Pivot only | Padres have gotten harder to strike out since a lineup shuffle; not the easiest spot |
On FanDuel's single-pitcher format, Skubal is close to unfadeable: Lindquist calls him "on an island" relative to the rest of the pool and is comfortable rostering him in more than half his lineups regardless of what happens early. On DraftKings, where two pitchers are required, the math changes. Skubal, Gore and Detmers are all pitching in the evening window, so none of them can be swapped off bad news. That's exactly why Kremer and Scott matter: they're Lindquist's flexible second slot, and he wants to see how the early stacks hit before committing size to either one.
Every price and exposure number in this pool comes out of the Stokastic MLB DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub, the same screens the show runs live. Code MLBLBL takes 10% off any MLB or All Access package.
The Game Theory: Why The Early Window Decides Everything Else
This is the part of the slate Lindquist keeps coming back to. Four games get going first, and if one of his early stacks goes nuclear, nine or ten runs, a couple of home runs, he leans harder into a solo Skubal build rather than paying up for a second correlated stack. If the early stacks come up empty, he shifts DraftKings salary toward Tampa Bay and keeps his second pitcher slot flexible for whichever evening arm still looks live. He's building his lineups now with that pivot point already accounted for, which is the entire reason Kramer and Scott stay in the player pool instead of getting locked to a single number. "There will not be enough people late swapping on this slate," he said, arguing the field treats this slate like a normal MLB night when it should be played more like an NBA slate with a real early-information edge.
Stacks: Tampa Bay Is The Priority, But St. Louis Is The Value
Tampa Bay against Athletics starter Jacob Lopez is Lindquist's favorite raw-projection stack of the night. Lopez pitches at Sutter Health Park, which he calls one of the more flyball-prone parks in baseball, and Lopez's expected numbers have been far better than his actual results all season, a sign of bad luck and a bad home park rather than bad stuff. Lindquist expects to roster the Rays in close to 30% of his lineups, built around the top of the order rather than the platoon-limited bottom.
| Stack | Opponent | Projected exposure | The read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | Jacob Lopez (ATH) | ~30% of lineups | Flyball-prone park, Lopez's expected stats way better than his results |
| St. Louis Cardinals | Andrew Painter (PHI) | 3.5-4.9% stack ownership | Painter on four days' rest coming off a hamstring issue, walks a lot of hitters |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | Gabriel Hughes | 2nd-most popular on FanDuel | The fade — see below |
The stack nobody's talking about is St. Louis. Andrew Painter is making this start on just four days of rest after dealing with a hamstring issue, and even at full strength he's walked too many hitters and given up too much hard contact. His offspeed pitches grade out well, but he leans on a fastball that's been exploitable, especially against left-handed bats. St. Louis is projected at a big team total, and Lindquist's Sims have the Cardinals at only 3.5-4.9% stack ownership, well behind where the field is landing on a Boston stack that's simply won more games recently. "I like this St. Louis side against Painter... no ownership," Lindquist said, calling it the most undervalued stack on the board.
Dean Kremer's own matchup cuts both ways worth knowing. Even with the case for Kremer as a pitcher, Baltimore's top of the order, led by Gunnar Henderson, is still capable of punishing him if the park factor doesn't hold. That's the honest risk on a Kramer build, not a reason to avoid him, but a reason his ownership stays capped at 20-25% instead of going higher.
The Fade: Arizona's Popularity Outruns Gabriel Hughes' Numbers
Arizona is drawing a lot of ownership tonight, running second-most-popular on FanDuel by Lindquist's value scores, and he's fading it. The matchup is Gabriel Hughes, a pitcher Lindquist admits isn't a name most DFS players respect, but whose actual numbers, a 3.73 SIERA and a track record of not giving up meaningful power at any level he's pitched, argue the field is pricing him like a pushover he isn't. "This is the guy that we want to have second most popular over on FanDuel? No, no, no, no," he said, pointing his own ownership toward Baltimore instead. For more on separating a popular team from a good matchup, see our MLB DFS contrarian strategy guide.
Notable Value Plays To Know
Carson Williams (TB) is priced at just $2,100 on FanDuel and projected under 10% owned despite batting ninth, a spot Lindquist doesn't love but is willing to play anyway given the power he flashed in his MLB debut. Junior Caminero (TB) carries some of the best home run odds on the entire board tonight as part of that same Rays stack. And Zach Neto (LAA) is showing up in 18% of Lindquist's simulated lineups against Mackenzie Gore, built on a .171 isolated-power mark against left-handed pitching that says he should already have more than five home runs in 134 plate appearances against lefties this year, exactly the kind of platoon-split outlier that drives a lineup decision on this slate.
Worked Example: Funding The Stack Around Skubal's Chalk
Spending $10,700 on Skubal eats a huge chunk of a DraftKings budget, which is exactly why the Tampa Bay stack matters so much to the build: Carson Williams at $2,100 and a $5,500 Jacob Lopez in the alternate pitcher pool leave real salary room for a second correlated piece like Junior Caminero. Pivoting to Dean Kremer at pitcher instead frees up different salary, but it also means paying closer attention to Baltimore's top of the order as the counter-play if that matchup breaks the wrong way. Either path only works if the lineup keeps an open slot for late swap, the same principle covered in our MLB DFS multi-entry strategy guide.
FanDuel: One Pitcher, One Hard Rule
FanDuel's single-pitcher format doesn't change the Skubal call, he's still the play in the vast majority of lineups. But Lindquist has one non-negotiable roster rule for tonight: never play Gunnar Henderson in the utility slot. Henderson is locked into a normal position spot already; burning the flexible utility slot on him instead of a player from the early window, like Carson Williams, wastes the one roster spot built for late information. Tampa Bay stays the preferred stack on FanDuel for the same reasons it does on DraftKings.
The Through-Line: Lock Skubal, Hold Everything Else For Late Swap
Monday's slate rewards patience more than any night this season. Skubal is the one call Lindquist makes early and doesn't touch, but the second pitcher slot, the stack size on Tampa Bay versus St. Louis, and how much Dean Kremer risk to carry all stay open until the first four games report back. That's not indecision, it's the correct read of a slate where 60% of the games start after 9:00 p.m. Eastern and most of the field won't be paying attention closely enough to pivot. For the full board through lock, see our MLB DFS picks hub, and check back for Tuesday's edition of this series.
Build Your Own Lineups
Every projection on Monday's show came out of the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims: track the early window the way Lindquist did, watch how Tampa Bay's ownership shifts through lock, and see which second pitcher the Sims support once the first pitch results are in. Try it on tonight's slate with code MLBLBL for 10% off any MLB or All Access package.
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