MLB DFS Live Before Lock Picks: August 17, 2026
August 17, 2026
Monday splits the two sites in opposite directions. DraftKings breaks its slate up into separate lock windows, while FanDuel keeps everything on one bigger board with a few extra games mixed in, and that gap changes which pitchers are even worth talking about site to site. Blake Snell (LAD) is close to an auto-play on DraftKings, sitting in roughly 70% of the lineup pool against a Colorado lineup that just lost Hunter Goodman (COL) to a scratch, but on FanDuel host Eric Lindquist prefers Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) over Snell outright. The board changes again in the final minutes before lock, when Ketel Marte (ARI) gets placed on the restricted list and pulls Arizona's whole stack down in price. The full pitcher pools, the stack math on both sites, and why Framber Valdez (HOU) is the pitcher Lindquist keeps coming back to are below. Host Eric Lindquist runs both builds live on the show, embedded below.
Blake Snell — one of the featured players on today's slate.
Watch The Video
Monday's full DraftKings and FanDuel builds get put together live below, including the last-minute Arizona lineup scramble after Ketel Marte's restricted-list news broke with the game already close to lock.
The Quick Answer
On DraftKings, Blake Snell (LAD) at Colorado is the chalk play at roughly 70% of the lineup pool, a highly-projected arm against a Rockies lineup missing Hunter Goodman, but the real value is Framber Valdez (HOU) at $7,500 against a Pittsburgh lineup that's been one of the worst offenses in baseball vs. left-handed pitching since August 1. On FanDuel, Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is the preferred pitcher over Snell, a heavy favorite to work deep into his start against Miami. Late breaking news pulled Ketel Marte (ARI) out of Arizona's lineup on the restricted list, which drops the cost of an Arizona stack that ends up as Lindquist's single highest-owned team by lock. The full pitcher pools, stack math on both sites, and the FanDuel value picks at catcher and in the outfield are below.
- Blake Snell (LAD) at Colorado is the DraftKings chalk, projected the highest pitcher on the slate by more than a fantasy point and a half over Nolan McLean, and rostered in around 70% of Lindquist's lineups.
- Framber Valdez (HOU), $7,500 against Pittsburgh, is the "stand of the day" — the Sims' top pitcher play, sitting under 25% owned against a Pirates lineup hitting well below league average vs. left-handers since August 1.
- Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is the preferred pitcher on FanDuel, a heavy favorite to complete six innings against Miami and get the win and quality-start bonuses.
- Ketel Marte (ARI) was placed on the restricted list shortly before Arizona's game locked, and the resulting cheaper Diamondbacks lineup becomes Lindquist's single highest-owned stack of the night.
- Carter Jensen (KC) is the favorite tournament bat on FanDuel, a fly-ball hitter catching a fly-ball-prone Mason Barnett with the fences in at Kauffman Stadium.
DraftKings Pitchers: Snell Is The Chalk, Valdez Is The Value
Blake Snell projects as the highest-owned and highest-projected arm on DraftKings, and it isn't close, he's projected more than a full fantasy point and a half ahead of Nolan McLean (NYM), the next arm up. Colorado is without Hunter Goodman, its most dangerous bat against left-handed pitching, and the rest of the lineup, Jordan Beck batting second, Connor Norby, Brett Sullivan and Ezekiel Tovar, is one of the weakest units in the sport. The only real concern is Coors Field itself, still the best hitting environment in baseball, but Snell's last start is the more interesting data point: 84 pitches, well above what he'd been running before it, a sign the workload management from earlier in the year is loosening up. Lindquist is rostering him in around 70% of his lineups.
The pitcher he keeps coming back to underneath Snell is Framber Valdez at $7,500 against Pittsburgh. "He is my stand of the day. He is the stand of the Sims," Lindquist said, and Pittsburgh's offense backs it up: the Pirates have been running a sub-80 wRC+ against right-handers since August 1 and are chasing a 28%-plus strikeout rate against left-handed pitching over that same stretch. The Sims have Valdez around 50-52% owned, and Lindquist capped his own exposure near that same number, but the field is projected well under 25% rostered, a gap he called out directly as one of the better mismatches between price and projection on the board.
Nolan McLean is the most expensive arm on the slate at $9,800, and the case against him is San Diego's recent form: an 18.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and a 117 wRC+ since August 1, a lineup that has stopped missing bats against anyone. Lindquist called it "a major risk of ruin" but still plans to be around a quarter of the field on him given the thin alternatives at the top of the pool. Shota Imanaga (CHC) against the Chicago White Sox is the other popular arm, an extreme fly-ball pitcher who gives up real power to right-handed bats; Lindquist is under the field's ownership there, treating him as a hold rather than a fade.
| Pitcher | Team | Matchup | DK price | Exposure | The read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Snell | LAD | vs. COL | Top-projected | ~70% | Highest-projected arm on the slate; Rockies missing Hunter Goodman |
| Framber Valdez | HOU | vs. PIT | $7,500 | Under 25% (field) / ~50% (Lindquist) | Pittsburgh sub-80 wRC+ vs. RHP and 28%+ K rate vs. LHP since August 1 |
| Nolan McLean | NYM | vs. SD | $9,800 | ~25% | Most expensive arm; San Diego's 18.8% K rate vs. RHP is the risk |
| Shota Imanaga | CHC | vs. CWS | Chalk tier | Under the field | Extreme fly-ball pitcher; White Sox carry real right-handed power |
| Luis Castillo | CIN | vs. CHC | Value tier | ~7-8% | Small bump over the field's ~4% on a sub-8-strikeout total |
Every price and exposure number in this pool comes out of the Stokastic MLB DFS projections, ownership and stacks in the DataHub, the same screens the show runs live. Code MLBLBL takes 10% off any MLB or All Access package.
DraftKings Stacks: Kansas City Is The Favorite, Arizona Is The Late Pivot
Kansas City is Lindquist's favorite single-entry stack of the night, built around Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) and Carter Jensen against an Athletics lineup that got a last-minute update, Jacob Wilson (ATH) scratched, with a corresponding shuffle at the top of Oakland's own order. He's targeting north of 18% ownership there once lineups lock. The Chicago White Sox against Imanaga is the sneaky single-entry play, over 10% ownership, leaning on the same fly-ball, right-handed-power profile that makes Imanaga a hold rather than a chalk play in the pitcher pool. Atlanta against Minnesota's Bailey Ober (MIN) is a "very serviceable stack" behind Ronnie Acuña Jr. (ATL) and the rest of Atlanta's left-handed bats, even though Lindquist isn't playing it at the field's roughly 8% number.
The Boston-Arizona game is the stack he called the most uncomfortable click of the slate, and he's still building around it. Boston's Mitch Bratt is a rookie up from Triple-A, where the Pacific Coast League is the most hitter-friendly environment in the sport, and Arizona's own follow pitcher has a poor track record as a starter this season despite thriving in relief. The total has sat steady at 9 all day even as the rest of the slate's lines move, and Lindquist reads that as the market signaling real scoring in a game the field isn't fully engaging with; he's targeting 13-15% combined exposure there.
The last stack of the show is also the biggest swing: Ketel Marte was placed on the restricted list minutes before Arizona's game locked, pulling Arizona's best hitter out of the lineup and dropping the cost of stacking the rest of the Diamondbacks. Corbin Carroll (ARI) and Geraldo Perdomo (ARI) stay in, Jordan Lawlar (ARI) moves into center field, and Nolan Arenado (ARI) is the one bat Lindquist is fading outright in that lineup. "Nobody's going to play Arizona," he said, before rebuilding several of his own lineups around exactly that in the final minutes.
| Stack | Opponent | The read |
|---|---|---|
| Kansas City Royals | Athletics | Favorite single-entry stack; Bobby Witt Jr. and Carter Jensen lead an updated A's-facing lineup |
| Chicago White Sox | Shota Imanaga (CHC) | Sneaky single-entry play; fly-ball, right-handed power matchup |
| Atlanta | Bailey Ober (MIN) | Serviceable stack behind Ronnie Acuña Jr.; Lindquist plays it under the field |
| Boston | Arizona (Mitch Bratt) | Uncomfortable but real; steady 9 total signals more scoring than the field expects |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | Boston | Cheapened by the Ketel Marte restricted-list news; becomes the highest-owned stack of the night |
FanDuel: Sanchez Over Snell, Carter Jensen The Favorite Bat
FanDuel's bigger slate flips the pitching order Lindquist likes best. Cristopher Sánchez against Miami is a massive favorite for both the win bonus and the quality-start bonus, priced to get through 18 outs as close to a lock as pitching gets, with an earned-runs prop sitting at 1.5. Blake Snell is still in the player pool at around 20% ownership, but Lindquist isn't treating him as the automatic top play the way he is on DraftKings; Snell's own earned-runs prop sits a full run higher than Sanchez's at 2.5, and getting through 18 outs isn't the same lock on FanDuel pricing that it is on DraftKings. If Snell isn't in the lineup, Jordan Beck becomes one of the better value bats on the board at sub-5% ownership against Colorado's own weak pitching.
Carter Jensen is the favorite tournament bat on the entire FanDuel slate. He's a fly-ball hitter facing Mason Barnett, a fly-ball-prone visiting pitcher, with the fences brought in at Kauffman Stadium and heavy humidity in the forecast. Jansen Junk is a smaller dart, rostered in around 1-of-20 lineups against a Philadelphia lineup that includes Kyle Schwarber (PHI) and Trea Turner (PHI), both back after a day off; the Phillies stack against him is the third-most popular team stack on the site. Atlanta against Bailey Ober rounds out the stacks Lindquist likes on FanDuel, the same matchup case as the DraftKings side.
| Pitcher | Team | Matchup | FanDuel read | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristopher Sánchez | PHI | vs. MIA | Massive favorite for win + QS bonus; 1.5 ERA prop | ~20% |
| Blake Snell | LAD | vs. COL | Not the auto-lock it is on DK; 2.5 ERA prop | ~20% |
| Jansen Junk | — | vs. PHI | Survives lefties; cheap dart against a loaded Phillies lineup | ~5% (1-of-20) |
Worked Example: Funding The Framber Valdez Play Around A Cheap Second Arm
On DraftKings, pairing Valdez's $7,500 price with Luis Castillo's cheaper tag frees salary for a full Kansas City stack, Witt, Jensen and the rest of the lineup, without forcing a discount bat anywhere else in the build. That's the same logic behind the Sanchez-over-Snell call on FanDuel: Sanchez is both the higher-projected arm and the cheaper leverage point relative to his ownership, so paying up for him still leaves room to fund Carter Jensen and a Kansas City stack in the same lineup. For more on building a stack around a chalk or value pitcher, see our guide on MLB DFS stacking strategy.
The Through-Line: A Slate That Changed In The Final Minutes
DraftKings and FanDuel started this Monday in different places, Snell as the clear top play on one site, Sanchez preferred on the other, and Framber Valdez the value angle either way. But the board that actually locked wasn't the one Lindquist built an hour earlier. The Ketel Marte news hit with Arizona's game close to starting, cheapened the rest of that lineup, and turned what he'd called an afterthought stack into his single highest-owned team of the night. That's the argument for building lineups as close to lock as the tools allow rather than banking them early. For the full board through lock, see our MLB DFS picks hub.
Build Your Own Lineups
Every projection on Monday's show came out of the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims: track how Arizona's ownership moves after the Ketel Marte news, watch whether the field catches up to Framber Valdez on DraftKings, and see which pitcher the Sims support once final lineups are locked in. Try it on tonight's slate with code MLBLBL for 10% off any MLB or All Access package.
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