MLB DFS Picks Today (6/15): DraftKings Perfect Lineup

Summer is here, baseball rules the slate, and Monday hands us one of those nights where there is no obvious lock to anchor around. That makes it a perfect single-lineup day. Below is the full read from the Perfect Lineup show, where Dave Loughran handles the pitchers, Josh Engelman handles the stacks, and the Single Lineup Simulator stitches it all into one DraftKings tournament build you can actually fire.

In Summary

• Shota Imanaga ($8,500 DK) is the most interesting arm on the board at home against Colorado, a spot you can argue for playing or for stacking against.
• MacKenzie Gore ($7,800 DK) is the value anchor against Minnesota, ranking second in top-two pitcher probability behind only Chase Burns at $3,200 less salary.
• Chase Burns ($11,000 DK) is elite but priced out of a one-lineup build at Great American Ball Park.
• Arizona is the primary stack, a fifth-ranked team in the Top Stacks Tool that sits only eighth in projected ownership against Ureña.
• The finished single-lineup build graded at a 47% simulated ROI and a 34% cash rate straight out of the Stokastic Single Lineup Simulator.

Watch the Video

Dave and Josh walk through every decision live, then run the finished roster through the sims on screen. Watch the full Perfect Lineup show here: Watch on YouTube.

Monday's MLB DFS Slate at a Glance

This is not a "these are the guys, cut and dry" kind of night. As Dave put it, there is no real lock on this slate to begin with, which is exactly why a disciplined single-lineup approach matters. With only one roster to build, every salary decision has to earn its spot, and the goal is leverage on a board where the chalk is not overwhelming.

A reminder on how this read is built. Everything below runs through the Stokastic MLB Sims and DataHub that the show uses live, so the calls are graded on projected ownership, value and stack score, not just a raw projected total. If you want the framework this slate read assumes, the stacking guide and ownership and leverage guide cover the fundamentals.

Picking Your Pitchers

Dave handled the arms, and the headline decision was less about who is best and more about who fits a single tournament lineup at the right price.

Shota Imanaga ($8,500 DK) is the unique one. He draws a home matchup with the Colorado Rockies at Wrigley Field, and Dave made the case both ways. On the good side, Colorado is brutal against left-handed pitching: the Rockies came into the prior day dead last in wRC+ against lefties and own the highest strikeout rate against lefties in all of baseball. Even after a 23-run explosion the day before in Las Vegas, much of it against lefties, they only climbed to a 79 wRC+ against southpaws and still sit last by 10 full points.

The other side of the coin is real, though. Imanaga had been hit hard before his last outing, surrendering 12 home runs across four straight starts and 14 over a six-start stretch, before turning it around five days ago against this very Rockies team at Coors Field. The wind is blowing out at Wrigley and the game carries a 9.5 total, so this is the rare arm you can legitimately build around or stack against. With a 6.5 strikeout prop and slightly less ownership than Chase Burns, he is a defensible centerpiece if you want the ceiling.

MacKenzie Gore ($7,800 DK) is the value play that does the heavy lifting here. Against Minnesota, he carries the second-highest top-two pitcher probability in the Stokastic data, behind only Chase Burns, yet costs $3,200 less. He ranks second in value percentage (behind only Ryan Nelson) and second in projected fantasy points on the slate. The underlying numbers back the price: a 3.54 FIP, a 25% strikeout rate and just 0.75 home runs allowed per nine, plus a 5.5 strikeout prop juiced to the over and a 1.5 earned-runs prop you rarely see under $8,000. The Twins have been average at best against lefties all season. Gore will be popular, but when Dave ran the sims that morning, the build kept spitting out a ton of Gore, which tipped the call.

The leverage read: Burns is the best arm on the board, but at $11,000 in a homer-friendly Great American Ball Park against the Mets, he does not fit a single-lineup build. Pairing the cheaper Gore with Imanaga banks salary for the bats and gets you off the most obvious chalk. For why ownership shapes a tournament, see the ownership and leverage guide.

Dave also flagged the fallback arms he considered before settling: Kai-Wei Teng against Detroit, Ryan Nelson (a strong value score against an Angels lineup that strikes out a lot, dampened by Soler landing on the IL), and JT Ginn against Pittsburgh. All viable, but Gore won the slot.

The Top Stack to Target: Arizona

With pitcher mostly settled, Josh took over on the bats, and Arizona was the team that jumped off the Top Stacks Tool. The Diamondbacks rank fifth in top stack and third in top value, so you are getting value at both pitcher and hitter, which should leave room for quality filler later. Just as important, they sit only eighth in projected ownership, so this is positive leverage rather than a chalk stack.

The opposing pitcher is Ureña, who Josh was not worried about in any way: okay stuff, a little swing-and-miss, but no command, so extra baserunners are in play. This is not a pure power spot. Arizona's active roster ranks 27th in wRC+ at 94, 20th in ISO at 150 and 22nd in strikeout rate at 20.8%, with a fine 9.5% walk rate (13th). So expect a few free passes and lean on the bats that can do damage when they connect.

The names give you real optionality across the price range:

• Left side: Ketel Marte ($5,300) and Corbin Carroll ($5,800) are the first two you reach for, with Pavin Smith ($2,500), Geraldo Perdomo ($4,000) and catcher Adrian Del Castillo ($3,000) as cheaper lefty bats.
• Right side: Gabriel Moreno, Arenado and a $2,700 Jordan Lawlar, whose multi-position eligibility makes him an interesting roster-construction piece.

That mix of salaries is the point. A stack with both $5,000-plus anchors and sub-$3,000 fill lets you build five bats from one team and still pay up for two pitchers.

Example Build: The Perfect Lineup in the Single Lineup Simulator

Here is where the tools do the work, and where we let the math settle the close calls. We take the two pitchers and the Arizona core into the Stokastic Single Lineup Simulator and let it fill the rest.

Our starting point: Imanaga and Gore on the mound, plus five Diamondbacks, Moreno, Smith, Marte, Arenado and Corbin Carroll, locked in right out of the gate. That leaves us about $4,400 per hitter for a shortstop and two outfielders. One click of "complete this lineup" returns the three optimal plays that fit the salary: Jeremy Peña at shortstop as the one-off, plus Pete Crow-Armstrong and Lawrence Butler in the outfield. The result is a 5-1-1-1 build that leaves just $100 on the table.

Running the simulation on that roster is the payoff: a 47% simulated ROI and a 34% cash rate, an easy lineup to piece together.

This is the proprietary edge. The Single Lineup Simulator simulates the full contest and grades your exact roster on ROI and cash rate before lock, so you are not guessing whether a build is good. Stokastic MLB puts that tool, the Top Stacks Tool and the projections in your hands. The show's code PERFECT10 takes 10% off any MLB package or all-access this summer.

Build your lineup with Stokastic Sims

Iterating: One Swap, A Second Look

The strength of a single-lineup approach is that we can test variations in seconds rather than committing blind. So we swapped one Arizona bat to see how the build moved, trading Arenado at third base for Geraldo Perdomo at shortstop, which freed roughly $4,200 per remaining position. Completing that version returned Eugenio Suárez along with the same Pete Crow-Armstrong and Lawrence Butler, and it graded in the same range: a 41% simulated ROI and a 34.5% cash rate.

Add a touch of randomness and the optimizer surfaces slightly different shapes. At 10% randomness, Wyatt Langford sneaks in over Lawrence Butler, with bats like Shohei Ohtani showing up as alternatives in the pool. Same core principle, a handful of different ways to get there. That is the entire workflow we run every night: pick your anchors, let the Sims fill and grade the rest, then iterate until the construction feels right. The DFS strategy guide walks through the primary-and-secondary-stack framework this build leans on.

FAQ

Who is the top MLB DFS pitcher today? For a single-lineup build, MacKenzie Gore ($7,800 DK) against Minnesota is the value anchor: second in top-two pitcher probability behind Chase Burns at $3,200 less salary. Shota Imanaga ($8,500) is the higher-ceiling option against Colorado.

Why fade Chase Burns at $11,000? Burns is elite, but in a one-lineup tournament build his $11,000 price at homer-friendly Great American Ball Park against the Mets does not leave enough salary for the bats. Gore gets you most of the production for far less.

What is the best MLB DFS stack today? Arizona. The Diamondbacks rank fifth in top stack and third in top value against Ureña, and at only eighth in projected ownership they offer leverage rather than chalk.

How did the finished lineup grade out? The completed 5-1-1-1 build (Imanaga, Gore, five Diamondbacks, Jeremy Peña, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Lawrence Butler) returned a 47% simulated ROI and a 34% cash rate in the Single Lineup Simulator.

The Bottom Line

Monday is a no-lock slate that rewards a clean single-lineup build. Pair the value of MacKenzie Gore with the ceiling of Shota Imanaga, anchor the bats to a low-owned Arizona stack against Ureña, and let the Single Lineup Simulator fill and grade the rest. The first build cleared a 47% simulated ROI, and you can chase a better one in seconds. Just remember those grades are simulated projections, not promises: MLB DFS is high-variance, the best pre-lock build can still finish near the bottom, so size your entries and manage your bankroll.

Ready to build your own? Stokastic MLB gives you the Single Lineup Simulator, the Top Stacks Tool and the projections the Perfect Lineup show runs on. Use code PERFECT10 for 10% off any MLB package or all-access.

Get Stokastic Sims for tonight's slate