MLB DFS Picks Today: DraftKings Perfect Lineup for June 22

Monday gives us a full DraftKings main slate, and this is the exact build we walked through on the Perfect Lineup show, where Loughy handles the pitchers and Josh handles the stacks before we hand the roster to the Stokastic MLB Sims to finish. Below are the plays, the salaries, and the reasoning, plus the full lineup we ran through the simulator.

In Summary

• Kyle Bradish ($8,500) is the SP1 anchor. He is coming off a 12-strikeout game and now draws a thinned-out Angels lineup, and he sits second in projected fantasy points and second in top-two-pitcher probability in our DataHub.
• Anthony Kay ($6,500) is the value SP2. Cleveland is one of the worst offenses in baseball against left-handers, and Kay is second in value in the DataHub while still landing top-six in projected points.
• The Dodgers are the stack. They are expensive and they will be owned, but they rank first in wRC+ and first in ISO against right-handed pitching, and they barely strike out.
• Let the Single Lineup Simulator finish the build. We seeded two pitchers and a five-man Dodgers stack, then let the Sims fill the open spots for a 37% Sim ROI tournament lineup.

Watch: The Perfect Lineup Build

Watch the full build come together on the Perfect Lineup show: Watch on YouTube. The hosts set the pitchers and the stack, then build the actual roster live in the Single Lineup Simulator.

Reading Today's MLB DFS Slate

The pitching slate is not bad, which matters, because there is a real cheap-arm path at SP2 today that frees up money for an expensive bat stack. The plan is straightforward: pay for a top-tier SP1, save real salary on a value lefty in a strikeout-friendly matchup, then spend the savings on the best offense on the board. From there, the simulator does the optimizing.

Pitching: Kyle Bradish Leads at SP1

Bradish at $8,500 is the SP1 we keep coming back to, and the case starts with the team he is facing. The Angels' active roster is bottom-10 in wOBA, ISO, and wRC+, they own the seventh-highest strikeout rate, and they carry the lowest walk rate in all of baseball against right-handers at 6.4%. With Jorge Soler out and Mike Trout on the IL, the lineup loses two bats with an ISO north of .200 against righties. That cuts into the strikeout upside a little (the pair combined for a 29% strikeout rate), but it also leaves a watered-down Angels group that is not a power threat right now.

Bradish himself has been all over the map this season, which is exactly when you lean on the projections, the props, and the matchup instead of the narrative. He is coming off a 12-strikeout game, he holds a 6.5-strikeout prop at $8,500, and he sits second in projected fantasy points and second in top-two-pitcher probability inside the Stokastic DataHub. He also ranks top-five in value percentage at that price, which is loud for a sub-$9K arm.

He will be popular. We have him as one of the highest-owned plays on the board. That does not scare us off: you can play a chalky pitcher at twice his field ownership and still be different from the room. Fading a high-owned arm is only one way to get leverage. Going heavily over the field on him is another.

If You Want to Pivot Off Bradish

SP1 is a deep position today, so the pivots are real:

• Hunter Brown ($10,800): a tough matchup from a strikeout standpoint, which is a lot to ask at that price.
• Dylan Cease: an absurd 36% strikeout rate and pure dominance lately, even if the matchup is only fair.
• Gavin Williams: a hard arm to trust start to start, but the matchup against the White Sox is tough to argue with.

Value at SP2: Anthony Kay and a Punt

Here is where the slate pays you. Anthony Kay at $6,500 is the value SP2, and the matchup is the entire pitch. Cleveland is not a good hitting team, and they are especially bad against left-handers. With Jose Ramirez, Angel Martinez, and Chase DeLauter off the active roster, the Guardians carry the second-highest strikeout rate in the league against southpaws at 25%, trailing only Baltimore. They are also 29th in wRC+ and ISO against lefties and dead last in wOBA. Kay brings a 4.5-strikeout prop juiced to the over, he is second in value in the DataHub, and he still lands top-six in projected fantasy points. At $6,500, that is a clean way to bank salary for the bats.

If you want to get even cheaper and weirder, the hosts also flagged a second dirt-cheap left-hander drawing that same Baltimore club, which owns the highest strikeout rate on its active roster against lefties at nearly 27%. Neither of these arms is close to elite, and we are not going to pretend they are. What they offer is strikeout upside at dirt-cheap prices in good matchups, which is the whole reason we target the position this way.

The lesson underneath the cheap SP2 is why we care about strikeouts so much. Our value arm on Friday gave up three runs and still posted 11 strikeouts for 30 DraftKings points. That does not happen every time, and plenty of cheap SP2s blow up because they are not elite. But strikeout upside in a soft matchup is what gives a punt arm a tournament-winning ceiling at a price that funds the rest of your roster.

The Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

The bats are easy today, and they are expensive. The Dodgers face Minnesota and Zebby Matthews, a pitcher whose command is fine but whose strikeout stuff has evaporated this year. Los Angeles does not care either way: they are first in wRC+ against right-handers, first in ISO against right-handers, and 23rd in strikeout rate, so they simply do not give away outs. In the DataHub they show up fourth in top-stack score, third in ownership, and only 16th in top value, which tells you the truth about this stack. Cost efficiency is not the appeal here. It is simply the best offense on the board.

We are leaning into a five-man Dodgers stack anchored by Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, and Tommy Edman, with Andy Pages ($5,000) and Max Muncy rounding out the bats you can pair with them. Because the SP2 is so cheap, salary is not the constraint it usually is for a Dodgers stack, so you have room to roster the bats you want without punting elsewhere.

Worked Example: Building the Lineup in the Single Lineup Simulator

This is the part a text recap cannot replicate, because it runs on our own tools. Read this as a tournament (GPP) build, since the goal is upside, not a cash-game floor.

We opened the Single Lineup Simulator with the core locked: Bradish and Anthony Kay on the mound, and the five-man Dodgers stack. Even with all that salary committed, we still had $3,500 left for a catcher, a third baseman, and an outfielder, which is plenty. One click of complete this lineup, and the Sims returned the three optimal one-offs for those open spots using our projections: William Contreras at catcher, Caleb Durbin at third base, and Tyler O'Neill in the outfield. That left just $300 on the table.

Then we ran the lineup simulation. The output: a 37% Sim ROI (a 37% ROI across the simulated field), a 0.2% chance to take down the tournament, and a 32% cash rate for this build. To show how fast you can iterate, we pulled one of the outfielders, brought in Dodgers catcher Dalton Rushing to keep the stack five deep, and let the simulator complete it again into a three-man Red Sox stack anchored by Ceddanne Rafaela and Masataka Yoshida plus a third Boston bat. That version ran weaker, at a 25.5% Sim ROI and the same 32% cash rate, which is exactly the point: build a few versions, simulate each, and keep the one the numbers like best.

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How We Built This, Tool by Tool

• DataHub: top-two-pitcher probability, projected fantasy points, value percentage, top-stack score, and ownership. Bradish's pitcher rank and the Dodgers' value-versus-ownership read both come from here.
• MLB Sims and the Single Lineup Simulator: seed your pitchers and stack, auto-complete the open spots with optimal plays, then simulate the full lineup for Sim ROI, win rate, and cash rate.
• Top Stacks and projections: the leverage read. The Dodgers ranking fourth in stack score while sitting third in ownership is an ownership-aware call, not a gut feel.

The principle underneath all of it, and the reason Stokastic MLB DFS players lean on the Sims: do not just play the highest-projected names. Seed a correlated, leverage-aware core, then let thousands of simulations rank your lineup before lock.

Get 25% Off Stokastic MLB

⚾ 10% OFF Stokastic MLB with Promo Code PERFECT10. Whether you want weekly, monthly, or All-Access, the MLB package gives you the Sims, Single Lineup Simulator, Top Stacks, and projections behind this build. Use code PERFECT10 at checkout. DFS is a long-run, high-variance game, so manage your bankroll and play the process.

FAQ

Who is the best MLB DFS pitcher today?

Kyle Bradish ($8,500) is our SP1. He is coming off a 12-strikeout game, the Angels have lost Jorge Soler and Mike Trout from an already bottom-10 offense, and he ranks second in top-two-pitcher probability in our DataHub.

Who is the best value pitcher on the slate?

Anthony Kay ($6,500) against Cleveland. The Guardians are dead last in wOBA against lefties and second in strikeout rate against southpaws, and Kay is second in value in the DataHub with a 4.5-strikeout prop juiced to the over.

Which stack should I target?

The Los Angeles Dodgers. Los Angeles ranks first in wRC+ and first in ISO against right-handers and barely strikes out, facing a Zebby Matthews who has lost his strikeout stuff. The stack is expensive, but the cheap SP2 lets you afford it.

How do I build the actual lineup?

Seed your pitchers and stack in the Single Lineup Simulator, click complete this lineup to fill the open spots with optimal plays, then run the simulation and read the Sim ROI. This is a tournament workflow. For cash games, build for floor from projections instead.