MLB DFS Perfect Lineup: Top Plays For Monday, June 29

On the Stokastic Perfect Lineup show, hosts Josh and "Lafy" build one MLB DFS tournament lineup for DraftKings, lean on the Stokastic Sims to do the heavy lifting, then run it back the next day. Monday, June 29 is an 11-game main slate coming out of the weekend, with wind blowing out at Wrigley, hot weather across the country, a Coors Field game, and a stack of five-run-plus totals. In other words, a night built for offense. Here are the plays we landed on.

In Summary

• SP1: George Kirby ($8,600) is the smash spot of the slate, home against the Angels at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.
• SP2: Robert Gasser ($6,700) gives us cheap leverage against a strikeout-prone Reds lineup, and pairing him with Kirby leaves the bats wide open.
• Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers, third in top-stack and fourth in stack score, with enough salary to buy the whole top of the order.
• The Build: lock the two arms and the Dodgers core, then let the Stokastic Single Lineup Simulator complete and grade the lineup. For the rest of the board, see today's full MLB DFS picks.

The Slate Setup: A Night For Offense

This is the part the Sims make easy. The wind is blowing out at Wrigley, it is hot nationwide, and the totals reflect it. The Cubs are up at 6.5, the Marlins sit at 5.8, and the Rockies are at 5.5 in a Coors Field game. When this many lineups are projected for five-plus runs, the strategy shifts. We want to pay down at pitcher where the matchups are elite, then spend everything we save on a high-ceiling stack. That approach is exactly how we attack Monday.

SP1: George Kirby Is The Obvious Smash

If you have looked at this slate for even a moment, you already know the answer. George Kirby is home against the Los Angeles Angels, and the matchup is as clean as it gets in MLB DFS.

The Angels carry a 25% strikeout rate against right-handers and the lowest walk rate in the league. That is the second-highest K rate paired with the worst plate discipline, and they also rank bottom-five in both wRC+ and weighted on-base average versus righties. Their team total is a slate-low 3.1, and the game sits at T-Mobile Park, one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball.

Kirby's props line up with the projection: roughly a 6.5-strikeout prop, an 18-out prop (17.5 in some books, juiced to the over), and a 1.5 earned-runs-allowed prop. He is the highest-projected pitcher in the Stokastic Data Hub and carries the highest top-two pitcher probability at a mid-$8K price point. He is priced like a starter having a down season, which he is, but not like one facing the Angels in Seattle. He will be popular, and that is fine. If you are mass-multi-entering, just get double the field on him instead of fading the chalk. In a single lineup, he is locked.

SP2: Robert Gasser, The Cheap Leverage Arm

With Kirby eating only $8,600, we go cheap again at SP2. The discount pitchers have been delivering lately, with multiple 30-plus DraftKings-point games out of arms priced around $6K.

Robert Gasser ($6,700) is the pick. He has thrown 90-plus pitches in three straight starts and owns a 24% strikeout rate across his 30 innings this season, and he draws a Reds team that strikes out a ton. Cincinnati hits lefties better than righties, no hiding that, but they still whiff against southpaws, and crucially this game is not at their bandbox in Cincinnati. Gasser ranks sixth in DraftKings-point projection and top-two pitcher probability in the Data Hub while sitting just 14th in pitcher salary, which gives him the third-highest value percentage of any arm on the board.

You do not have to go this cheap at SP2. But in a single lineup, Kirby plus Gasser is barely over $15,000 across two pitchers, and that is what frees up the stack. If you want to pay up instead, Trey Yesavage at home against the Mets and Ryan Weathers at home against the Tigers are the next two arms I like most.

The Stack: Load Up On The Dodgers

When both pitchers are this cheap, the money has to go somewhere, and there is no better place than the Los Angeles Dodgers. They rank third in top-stack on the slate and fourth in stack score, and they draw Gage Jump and the Athletics in a launching-pad park where command is at a premium. That is the run-scoring environment we want to buy into.

Because the salary is there, we do not have to cut corners on the bats:

• Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Andy Pages are the premium pieces north of $5K.
• Mookie Betts ($4,800) and Teoscar Hernandez give us mid-priced ceiling in the $4K range.
• Tommy Edman rounds out a stack that gives us bats on both sides of the plate, up and down the salary spectrum.

The point is not picking the right four Dodgers. It is that we have enough salary to play whichever ones we want.

Building It In The Single Lineup Simulator

Here is where the Stokastic Single Lineup Simulator earns its keep. Lock in Kirby and Gasser, then load the Dodgers core of Ohtani, Edman, Betts, Hernandez, and Pages. That leaves a catcher, a third baseman, and an outfielder to fill, with about $3,500 per spot left over. That is a comfortable number given how much we spent up on the stack.

Click complete-this-lineup and the Sim drops in the three optimal one-offs by projection: Carson Kelly at catcher, a third baseman, and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the outfield, spending every last dollar. Run the simulation and the build grades out with roughly a 53% simulated ROI, a 36% cash rate, and a 2% chance to take down the contest.

From there the Sim's flexibility is the real edge. Add 5% randomness and it reshapes the one-offs. Swap in Manny Machado at third and a different Padres or Marlins bat in the outfield, re-run, and the build grades slightly better. You can swap a Dodger, nudge the randomness, or rebuild the bottom three in seconds, all while keeping the powerful core intact. That is the whole idea of the Perfect Lineup: pay down at pitcher into elite matchups, pay up for a stack, and let the Sims fine-tune the rest. If you want raw hitter upside to mix in, our MLB home run picks board lines up the best power plays for the same slate.

How To Use This Board

These plays are built on the same Stokastic MLB tools you can run yourself: the Single Lineup Simulator, the pre-contest Sims, projected ownership, and the full Data Hub. The Sims simulate the slate thousands of times to surface projections, top-stack and stack-score rankings, and value percentages, so you build on simulated outcomes instead of gut feel. Browse all of today's Stokastic articles for the rest of the slate.

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Watch The Video

Watch on YouTube for the full Perfect Lineup breakdown for Monday, June 29, with the lineup built live in the Single Lineup Simulator.

FAQ

Who is the top MLB DFS pitcher for June 29? George Kirby is the Perfect Lineup's SP1. He draws the Angels at pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park, he is the highest-projected pitcher in the Stokastic Data Hub, and he carries the highest top-two pitcher probability at his mid-$8K price.

What is the best MLB DFS stack for June 29? The Dodgers. They rank third in top-stack on the slate and fourth in stack score, and with both pitchers cheap there is plenty of salary to load up on Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Teoscar Hernandez, and the rest.

How does the Stokastic Single Lineup Simulator work? You lock in the players you want, click complete-this-lineup to fill the rest with the optimal one-offs by projection, then run a simulation that grades the build with a projected ROI, cash rate, and chance-to-win, so you see how the lineup performs before you enter it.

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