MLB DFS Picks Today (7/1): Two Arms Fund a Dodgers Stack

Pitching is the whole story on Wednesday's DraftKings MLB DFS main slate. It's a short seven-game main slate, it's blistering hot across the country, and, as Dave Loughran put it on the Stokastic Perfect Lineup show with Josh Engleman, "where it isn't hot, you just don't have good pitchers." So the build gets contrarian on purpose: two arms nobody else wants to trust, then spend all the leftover salary on the best stack on the board. Here's the full breakdown, grounded in the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims & projections. For the wider board of top pitchers and hitters by projection, pair it with our MLB DFS picks today hub.

In Summary

• SP1: Max Meyer (MIA) at Coors Field. A weird spot on paper, but a 27% strikeout rate, reverse splits, and a lefty-heavy Rockies lineup make him a low-owned pivot.
• SP2: Tatsuya Imai (HOU) vs the Twins. The highest-projected pitcher on the slate at just $7,300, with two straight 30-point, double-digit-strikeout games.
• Top Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics RHP J.T. Ginn (ATH). Cheap pitching means you can afford the whole thing.
• Built live in the Single Lineup Simulator: the first pass graded out at a 3.7% sim ROI, so the show remixed the bats up to a 30% sim ROI.
• All Week Only: 10% off Stokastic MLB with promo code PERFECT10.

Watch: Stokastic MLB DFS Perfect Lineup (July 1)

Dave and Josh walk through every play and build the lineup in the Sims on the show. Watch on YouTube.

The read: On a slate with no safe ace, pedigree and strikeouts beat matchup. Two low-owned, high-strikeout arms fund a full Dodgers stack, and the Sims say the remixed version grades out at a 30% ROI.

The Slate: Hot Weather, Thin Pitching

Seven games, very hot temperatures, and a pitching pool with a question mark on almost every arm. That's the setup, and it drives the entire strategy. When there's no "safe" ace to pay up for, the edge shifts from matchup to pedigree and strikeout upside, the ability to go get you points regardless of who's in the box. Cheap, high-strikeout arms also let you build a monster of a stack, which is exactly where this lineup ends up.

SP1: Max Meyer (MIA), The Coors Field Pivot Nobody Wants

Starting a pitcher at Coors Field looks like a mistake. It usually is, because it's the biggest home-run and run environment in the sport. But dig into the specifics and Max Meyer (MIA) is a defensible contrarian play:

• Strikeouts Travel. Meyer carries a 27% strikeout rate and limits power. Whiffs are park-proof, and a punchout counts the same at altitude as anywhere else.
• He's A Reverse-Splits Arm This Year. He's posted roughly a 30% strikeout rate and a .195 average allowed to left-handed (opposite-handed) hitters, and he's giving up only about a third of a home run per nine to lefties.
• The Rockies Lean Left. Colorado is expected to run a lefty-heavy lineup, which plays directly into Meyer's reverse split. The only right-handed bat that scares you is Hunter Goodman (COL).
• Conditions Help. It's about 86 degrees, but the wind is blowing in at 13 mph from right field, a real dampener on the Coors carry.
• He Goes Deep. Meyer has been averaging over six innings per start the last couple of months, so the strikeout volume has a runway.

None of that makes him a "smash." It makes him a good, real pitcher who will likely draw lower ownership than four or five other arms on a short slate. On a slate with no clean options, that combination of upside and leverage is the play.

SP2: Tatsuya Imai (HOU), The Slate's Top Projection At A Bargain

Tatsuya Imai (HOU) faces a Minnesota Twins lineup that projects to run as many as six lefties, especially with Byron Buxton (their best hitter) nursing a hip impingement and likely out again. That's a mild concern, since Imai is better against righties, but Loughran talked himself into it and the price is why:

• He's Underpriced. DraftKings has him at just $7,300, the seventh-highest salary on the slate, despite back-to-back 30-DraftKings-point starts with double-digit strikeouts in both.
• The Pitch Is Real. Imai throws essentially a two-pitch mix (fastball/slider), and the slider moves the "wrong" way, with arm-side movement, the opposite of a normal slider. He can also throw it glove-side, so hitters never know what's coming. Until they solve it, there's no obvious reason his ~30% strikeout rate regresses. His strikeout prop sits at 5.5, juiced to the over (see today's full MLB strikeout props).
• The Sims Love Him. He's the highest-projected pitcher on the slate, with the highest top-two-pitcher probability and the highest value percentage, at the seventh-highest salary. Good matchup? Not really. Low ownership? No. But the price is way lower than the profile deserves.

The Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

Because both pitchers are cheap, the hitters get the whole budget. The easiest way to spend it is the obvious one: stack the Los Angeles Dodgers. They're first in the top-stack rankings, the park is great, and they draw Athletics right-hander J.T. Ginn (ATH).

Ginn doesn't get smacked around by righties (they barely touch him), but he gives up more power to lefties. So the build tilts to the Dodgers' left-handed bats:

There's a quirk that makes this cheaper than usual. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) was sitting in the DraftKings pool as a pitcher (they had him penciled to start, and he's not), so you can't roster his bat right now. That's a bummer on its own, but it means the Dodgers stack is more cost-effective than it typically is: you're getting the top stack without paying up for Ohtani.

How To Build It In The Sims: A Worked Example

Time to finish the job in the Single Lineup Simulator. The show locked Meyer and Imai on the mound and loaded five Dodgers bats (Rushing, Freeman, Muncy, Tucker, and Teoscar Hernández), leaving a second baseman, a shortstop, and an outfield spot with about $3K per slot to fill.

The first pass was, in Loughran's words, the worst lineup they'd naturally built in the Sims to that point. Rather than settle, they swapped some Dodgers bats around, moved off Freeman to Jonathan Aranda (TB) at first, and plugged Taylor Walls (TB) in at short. Same core read (Imai, Meyer, and the Dodgers bats), but the Sims found the version that actually grades out.

That's the whole point of building in the Sims: you get an objective read on your lineup before you ever submit it, and you can remix until the number tells you you're pointed the right way. Chasing more power on the same slate? Cross-check your bats against our MLB home run picks before you lock.

Get 35% Off The Stokastic MLB Tools

All week only, everything on Stokastic is 10% off with promo code PERFECT10 (Core or Max, weekly, monthly, or All Access). It's the simplest way to get the Sims, projections, optimizer, and the Single Lineup Simulator this show is built on.

Get 10% off Stokastic MLB with code PERFECT10 →

FAQ

Who are the top MLB DFS pitchers for July 1? On the Perfect Lineup, Dave Loughran went Max Meyer (MIA) at Coors Field and Tatsuya Imai (HOU) vs the Twins. It's a thin seven-game pitching pool, so both are pedigree-over-matchup calls. Meyer is in for his strikeout upside and reverse splits, and Imai is the slate's highest-projected arm at a discount price.

What is the top MLB DFS stack for July 1? The Los Angeles Dodgers. With cheap pitching freeing up salary, the show stacked the Dodgers against Athletics right-hander J.T. Ginn (ATH) and leaned on the left-handed bats (Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Kyle Tucker, Dalton Rushing) plus Teoscar Hernández.

What are Stokastic Sims? Stokastic runs millions of simulations of each slate to produce projections, projected ownership, leverage, and optimal-lineup rates. The show builds and grades lineups in the Single Lineup Simulator, which returns a sim ROI, cash rate, and chance-to-win for any lineup you enter.

How do I get the Stokastic MLB tools? All week only, use promo code PERFECT10 for 10% off any Stokastic MLB plan (Core or Max, weekly, monthly, or All Access).

Final Word

On a short, hot, pitching-poor slate, the Perfect Lineup's edge is leverage: two contrarian, high-strikeout arms in Max Meyer (MIA) and Tatsuya Imai (HOU) that fund a full Los Angeles Dodgers stack against J.T. Ginn (ATH). Run your own build through the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims and remix until the ROI agrees.