MLB DFS Picks Today 7/2: Cheap Arms Fund Ohtani

In Summary

• SP1 Anchor: Bryce Miller (SEA), the highest-projected pitcher in the Stokastic Sims and the top-two-pitcher probability leader, in the best pitching park on the slate.
• SP2 Leverage: Roki Sasaki (LAD), a high-ceiling tournament arm at $7,700 against a Padres offense sitting dead last in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching.
• Top Stack: the Kansas City Royals (KC), the No. 4 value stack on the board against lefty Ian Seymour (TB), anchored by a $6,100 Bobby Witt Jr. (KC).
• Payup Bats: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Chandler Simpson (TB), the two big-salary hitters our cheap Royals stack pays for.
• Build it yourself in the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims & Single Lineup Simulator. Code PERFECT10 takes 10% off Stokastic MLB through Saturday.

Watch The Video

Watch the full Perfect Lineup build with Dave Lachman and Josh Ingamman: Watch on YouTube.

This is the DraftKings build from Stokastic's Perfect Lineup show, with Dave Lachman on the pitchers and Josh Ingamman on the stacks, for Thursday's six-game main slate. The whole approach is to let the tools do the heavy lifting: we rank the plays on the Stokastic Sims, then build and grade the lineup in the Single Lineup Simulator. Here's where the projections point. (New to this format? Start with our guide to how to win at MLB DFS.)

Bryce Miller (SEA) Is The SP1 Anchor

Miller (SEA) is our clear top pitcher on the board, and the numbers explain why. Since his season debut on May 13, he ranks top-four among all starters in the three categories that matter most: a 34% K rate, a 3.4% walk rate (tied third), and a 2.23 xERA. That's an ace-level process over the last six weeks.

The matchup only sharpens it. The Los Angeles Angels rank second in K rate, 29th in walk rate, and 25th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching on their active roster. That's a lineup that strikes out, doesn't work counts, and doesn't hit. Add the park: T-Mobile Park grades dead last for hitting on the Statcast park-factor leaderboards. A high-strikeout righty, a whiff-prone lineup, and the most pitcher-friendly stadium on the slate is about as clean as a DFS pitcher spot gets.

The market sees it too. Miller carries a 6.5-strikeout prop juiced heavily to the under, and the Angels sit on a slate-low three-run team total. In the Stokastic data he's the highest-projected pitcher and holds the top pitcher-probability on the board. He'll be chalky, but on a six-game slate that's fine. An early Sims run returned 70% exposure, and the only real worry is that it might not be enough. Yes, a 99% strand rate and a low BABIP say he's run a little hot, but the skills and the spot are real. He's the anchor.

Roki Sasaki (LAD) Is The Leverage Arm At SP2

If Miller is the safe anchor, Sasaki (LAD) is the tournament dart next to him, and the opponent is the sell. The San Diego Padres are dead last in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching, dead last in weighted on-base average, and 26th in ISO. They carry just a 3.7 team total. That is the profile you want behind a high-ceiling, lower-floor arm.

Sasaki has been a roller coaster this season, but at $7,700 with a 5.5-strikeout prop on most books, the price fits the volatility. He's flashed several spike starts over the last couple of months, and spike weeks are exactly what a GPP build is chasing. The Sims back the read: he's top-four in projected DraftKings points, fourth in top-two-pitcher probability, and fourth in value despite being only the seventh-highest-priced starter on the board. Targeting a high-ceiling arm against a bad offense doesn't hit every time, but it hits more often than it doesn't, and this is that spot.

🔓 Build these on the Sims, not on a gut feel. Miller, Sasaki, and the Royals stack all grade out on the Stokastic MLB Sims, millions of simulations per slate for projections, ownership, leverage, and optimal-lineup rates. Code PERFECT10 takes 10% off Stokastic MLB through Saturday.

Unlock Stokastic MLB

The Kansas City Royals Are The Top Value Stack

No Dodgers bats here. Our value is in Kansas City. The Royals (KC) grade out across every step of the Sims: third in top-stack rate, fourth in top-value, third in ownership, and second in stack score, the fourth-best value stack of the day.

It isn't a perfect spot, and that's the point. Lefty Ian Seymour (TB) is a real arm, average-to-better with some upside stuff, so this isn't a soft matchup. He doesn't give away power, but he doesn't avoid it like the plague either, so there's a crack. The Royals themselves are middling against lefties (19th in wRC+, 24th in ISO, 23rd in walk rate), but they're 26th in K rate vs. LHP, meaning they put the ball in play. More contact means more base runners, more variance, and more chances for a stack to spike. The bigger edge is the salary: the Royals are cheap enough to let us pay up everywhere else. Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) is worth every penny of his $6,100 at shortstop, and around him the prices get friendly: Carter Jensen (KC) at catcher ($4,400), Salvador Perez (KC) ($3,300), Nick Loftin (KC) at third ($2,900), Lane Thomas (KC) in the outfield ($3,100), and Michael Massey (KC) at second. Because the Royals come cheap and moderately owned, they double as a contrarian leverage stack, not just a chalk one.

The Build: A Worked Example In The Single Lineup Simulator

Here's how it comes together in the Single Lineup Simulator. We lock the baseline (Miller and Sasaki at pitcher, then the cheap Royals core of Jensen, Perez, Loftin, a $6,100 Witt, and Thomas), and roughly $4,300 per spot is left across second base and two outfielders. That's enough to buy the best of what's left.

Click Complete Lineup and the optimizer fills the optimal plays off the projections: it pays down at second base to Zach McKinstry (DET) so it can pay up for Shohei Ohtani (LAD), and adds Chandler Simpson (TB) in the outfield. Now we've got the double payup bats and a unique lineup, because low-owned pieces in Jensen, McKinstry, and Loftin give it leverage the field won't have. (That balance of ceiling and uniqueness is the heart of how to win DFS tournaments.)

Run the simulation and it grades the build against the field. Our first pass came back around a 25% projected Sim ROI with a 34% cash rate. That's the simulator's read on one lineup, not a promise, so it's worth moving pieces to find better. Shift Perez to catcher, slide the salary around, and the optimizer lands on a KC/Tampa Bay game stack (five Royals plus Yandy Diaz (TB), Cedric Mullins (TB), and Victor Mesa Jr. (TB)) that grades in the same range with a slightly better chance to win. Either way the Sims tell us exactly where the build stands before we enter it. That's the whole edge.

10% off, through Saturday only. Everything above, the Sims, projections, ownership, and the Single Lineup Simulator, is Stokastic MLB. Code PERFECT10 takes 10% off with the Fourth of July sale.

Get Stokastic MLB

FAQ

Who is the best MLB DFS pitcher today (7/2)? Bryce Miller (SEA) is the top-projected pitcher in the Stokastic Sims for Thursday's main slate. Since his May 13 debut he ranks top-four among all starters in K rate (34%), walk rate (3.4%), and xERA (2.23), and he draws a strikeout-prone Angels lineup in T-Mobile Park, the toughest hitting environment on the board.

What is the best MLB DFS stack today? The Kansas City Royals are the No. 4 value stack in the Stokastic Sims. Lefty Ian Seymour (TB) is a solid arm but doesn't fully suppress power, and the Royals' cheap salaries let us fit two payup bats around a Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) core.

How do I build these MLB DFS lineups myself? Use the Stokastic Single Lineup Simulator. Lock your core, click Complete Lineup to fill the optimal plays from the projections, then run the sim to grade the build's ROI, cash rate, and chance to win before you enter.