MLB DFS Picks Today: DraftKings Plays for June 17

Looking for MLB DFS picks today? This is the Wednesday, June 17 edition, and it is the same build we walked through on the Perfect Lineup show, where Loughy handles the pitchers and Josh handles the stacks while we let the Stokastic MLB Sims do the heavy lifting. It is a split slate, so these DraftKings 🎁 MLB DFS picks are built for the main slate only. You have already played the early games, so everything below targets the night cap.

If you would rather watch us put the whole lineup together live, the full show is embedded at the bottom. Otherwise, here are the plays, the salaries, and the reasoning.

In summary

• George Kirby (~$9,000) is the top pitcher. The Orioles carry the lowest team total on the entire board at 3.5 runs, and Kirby pitches in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. He is tied for the highest top-two-pitcher probability on DraftKings in our DataHub.
• Carlos Rodon ($8,700) is the preferred pairing. Six strong starts since returning from the IL, a 26.5% strikeout rate, and a 5.5-strikeout prop juiced to the over against the White Sox.
• Brandon Sproat ($5,800) frees up your SP2 salary. He faces a Cleveland offense dead last in isolated power against righties, and he sits at just 8% projected ownership.
• Blue Jays are the stack, but as a leverage play, not a smash spot. They are cheap, low-owned for their top-stack odds, and let you fit two strong arms. The matchup itself is neutral, so this is a salary and ownership decision.
• Let the Single Lineup Simulator finish the build. We seeded our core and let the Sims fill the open spots with the optimal plays.

The slate

Wednesday is a split slate, so we are focused on the main only. Pitching sets up cleanly with two arms in plus park or matchup spots, and the bat side is more about leverage than a single obvious team to hammer. The plan: spend up for two pitchers we trust, save real salary in the stack, and let the simulator do the optimizing.

Pitching: top targets

George Kirby (Seattle, ~$9,000)

Kirby is this slate's SP1, and the case is close to the one we made for Logan Gilbert the day before. Gilbert had not been living up to expectations either, the Sims kept force-feeding him, and he went out and dominated the Orioles for 35 DraftKings points at a low-$9K price. The lesson carries over: it is easy to look at a pitcher's down season and decide he "isn't good anymore," but that ignores a lot of important context.

Here is the context with Kirby. The Orioles have the lowest team total of any team on the entire day, including the early slate, at just 3.5 runs. Kirby still holds a 6.5-strikeout prop, a 17.5-out prop, and a 1.5-earned-run prop, and he does it inside one of the most pitcher-friendly parks known to man. His strikeout stuff is down this season, which is fair to note, but the K prop is still big and the Orioles own the fourth-highest strikeout rate on their active roster against right-handed pitching in all of baseball.

That combination is why Kirby is tied for the highest top-two-pitcher probability on DraftKings inside the Stokastic DataHub. He projects well on value too. Does any of this mean he will dominate? Of course not. It means he is objectively a good play no matter what happens. He will be popular, but ownership by itself is never a good enough reason to fade a pitcher in a spot this clean.

Carlos Rodon (NY Yankees, $8,700)

Rodon is our preferred pairing with Kirby. He is fully stretched out, with six starts since returning from the IL and solid work across the board: a 26.5% strikeout rate, a 3.68 FIP, and just 0.58 home runs allowed per nine. The walks have nagged him a little, but that is the kind of number we would expect to settle back toward his career norm, and everything else still looks the part.

The White Sox have actually hit lefties reasonably well this year, so this is not a pure smash spot for Rodon. What keeps him in play is the run environment: Chicago carries only a 3.18 team total today, and Rodon still has a 5.5-strikeout prop juiced to the over. Pay up for both arms and you are starting from two trustworthy floors.

Bargain arm: the value pitcher

Brandon Sproat (Milwaukee, $5,800)

If you want a seller-dweller to free up salary at SP2, Sproat is interesting, and the reasoning is all about the opponent. Cleveland's offense simply is not good right now. The Guardians are dead last in isolated power against right-handed pitching and dead last in home runs with 31 on the season, and we are a decent way into the year. That does not mean they cannot have a good game, but the profile is weak.

We talked about Robert Gasser ($5,500) in the same matchup the day before. The Sims pushed us toward him, we dug in, liked it, and he turned in a great start. Sproat's issues are walks and power, with 1.8 home runs allowed per nine, but against a lineup last in ISO and last in home runs, that risk is muted. He also carries a 22% strikeout rate. He sits at only 8% projected ownership on Stokastic and ranks as the sixth-highest projected pitcher despite being just the 13th-most expensive on the slate. That is a real leverage option if you need the savings.

We are paying up for Rodon today rather than taking the discount, but Sproat is the pivot if you want to spend elsewhere.

The stack: Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays are our stack, and we want to be honest about why. Treat this as a leverage and salary play, not a "they are going to mash" play. Toronto sits sixth in top-stack odds, so they are near the top without being the chalk team. They are first in top value, eighth in slate ownership, and second in stack score, all because of how cost-effective they are. Their top-stack odds are already outpacing their ownership, which is exactly the kind of gap we want.

The matchup is neutral at best. Jake Bennett is on the hill for the other side, a left-hander and mildly interesting command prospect with a 26% strikeout rate in Triple-A, though he does not really profile as a strikeout arm to us. The Jays are 28th in wRC+ against lefties this season, which is not helpful, and they are middle of the pack in most other splits. So we are not projecting a blow-up. We are buying a cheap, correlated stack against a pitcher we do not have to fear, with the lineup tilted heavily right-handed.

On salary, this is where the build breathes. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the most expensive bat at $4,400, and nobody else in the projected lineup is north of $3,600. There are punt-priced options down in the $2,100 to $2,300 range, two separate catcher options if you want them, and contributors like George Springer, Alejandro Kirk, Ernie Clement, and Davis Schneider to choose from. Stacking whatever you want from the Jays costs almost nothing, which is the entire point: spend on Kirby and Rodon, save here, and let the rest of the roster fill out.

Worked example: building the lineup in the Single Lineup Simulator

Here is the part a text-only recap cannot give you, because it runs on our own tools. Read this as a GPP build, so we are optimizing for tournament upside, not a cash-game floor.

We opened the Single Lineup Simulator and seeded our core: Kirby and Rodon on the mound, plus a five-man Blue Jays stack (Springer, Kirk, Guerrero, and Clement among the bats). That left roughly $4,900 per remaining position across a shortstop and two outfield spots, which is plenty to land big names.

We clicked "complete this lineup," and the simulator returned the three optimal plays for those open spots using Stokastic projections and ownership. We picked up a little extra stack synergy along the way: Seiya Suzuki and Pete Crow-Armstrong gave us two Cubs in the outfield, and Jose Caballero (Yankees) filled shortstop. That put us at $521 of remaining salary on the initial draft.

Then we ran the lineup simulation. The output: an 82% Sim ROI (an 82% ROI across the simulated field), a 0.3% chance to win the tournament, and a 37% cash rate for this build. In theory you can rebuild it again and again to test different versions, but we liked this one. Two strong, chalky pitchers (both owned in the 30s) paired with a relatively low-owned Toronto team is the kind of leverage that feels right in a large field.

How we built this, tool by tool

• DataHub: team totals, top-two-pitcher probabilities, top-stack odds, projected ownership, and stack score. This is where Kirby's top-pitcher rank and Toronto's value-vs-ownership gap come from.
• MLB Sims / Single Lineup Simulator: seed your core, auto-complete the open spots with optimal plays, then simulate the lineup for Sim ROI, win rate, and cash rate.
• Top Stacks and projections: the leverage read. Sproat at 8% projected and the Jays outpacing their ownership are both ownership-driven calls, not gut feel. This is also where you compare MLB DFS stacks by top-stack odds, stack score, and value before you commit salary.

The principle underneath all of it, and the reason Stokastic MLB DFS players lean on the Sims: do not just play the highest-projected names. Build a correlated, leverage-aware lineup, then let thousands of simulations rank it.

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FAQ

Who is the top MLB DFS pitcher today?

George Kirby (~$9,000) is our top target. The Orioles hold the lowest team total on the board at 3.5 runs, he pitches in a strongly pitcher-friendly park, and he is tied for the highest top-two-pitcher probability on DraftKings in our DataHub.

Who is the best value pitcher on the slate?

Brandon Sproat ($5,800) against Cleveland. The Guardians are dead last in isolated power against right-handers and last in home runs, and Sproat is just 8% projected ownership while ranking sixth among projected pitchers. He is the pivot if you need to save salary off Rodon.

Which stack should I target?

The Blue Jays, but as a value and leverage stack rather than a smash spot. They are cheap (Guerrero at $4,400 is the priciest bat, nobody else over $3,600), low-owned relative to their top-stack odds, and they let you afford both Kirby and Rodon.

How do I build the actual lineup?

Seed your pitchers and stack in the Single Lineup Simulator, use "complete this lineup" to fill the open spots with optimal plays, then run the simulation and read the Sim ROI. This is a tournament workflow. For cash games, build for floor from projections instead.

Watch the full show

Watch the full build on the Perfect Lineup show: MLB DFS Picks & Strategy | DraftKings Top Plays for Wed June 17.

Lock in your build, then take 10% off any Stokastic MLB subscription with code PERFECT10 at stokastic.com/join DFS is a long-run, high-variance game, so manage your bankroll and play the process.