MLB DFS Picks Today (6/30): Woo, Schlittler & The Padres Stack

My MLB DFS picks today center on a simple split: cheap, low-total pitching on one side, and the bats packed into three bandboxes on the other. It is a true 12-game main slate on Tuesday, June 30, with 12 starters carrying a strikeout prop of 5.5 or higher and six arms sitting at a 9.0-K prop or better. The edge tonight is being right about which expensive pitchers actually earn their price. Here is how I am attacking the Stokastic MLB Sims for DraftKings and FanDuel.

In Summary

• Top Pitchers: Bryan Woo (SEA) at $9,000 and Cam Schlittler (NYY) at $10,500. They are the two highest-projected arms on the board and both pitch in 7-total games.
• Leverage Arm: Joe Ryan (MIN), with a 6.5-strikeout prop juiced to the over against the Astros.
• Top Stacks: San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs (both in the slate-high 11.5-total Wrigley game), with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tampa Bay Rays behind them.
• The Build Technique: running five uniques in the Sims to flatten a 59% Fernando Tatís Jr. (SD) build into a balanced one without capping anything by hand.
• Big totals at Wrigley, Coors, and Sacramento are doing the work, so the high-strikeout, low-total arms free up salary for bats.

Watch: Stokastic MLB DFS Strategy Show (6/30)

The full Tuesday walkthrough is on the show, with the Sims, the Top Stacks Tool, and projected ownership pulled up live as the board gets built out.

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Today's Slate At A Glance

Pull up the team totals in the DataHub and the shape of the day is clear: 10 teams sit above a 5.0 implied total and three clear 6.0, but there are also seven offenses parked at 4.1 or below. That spread is the whole slate. The weather amplifies it. Wrigley is 92 degrees with a 14 mph wind blowing out to left-center, Sacramento is 85 and blowing out, Coors is 87 with the wind out to right, and Kansas City is 91 and blowing out to left. Then there are the two pitcher games: Tigers at Yankees and Angels at Mariners, both sitting at a 7.0 total.

That split is why the right pitchers are easy to find and the bats take real work. The arms in those 7-total games are the ones you want, and the savings on cheaper strikeout pitchers fund the expensive stacks in the bandboxes.

Build Today's Slate With The Stokastic MLB Sims

Everything below comes out of the same place: our morning MLB Sims and projections. The Sims run the full contest thousands of times to produce projected ownership, optimal exposures, and a simulated player ROI for every name on the slate, then the Contest Sims build the actual lineups. The Top Stacks Tool ranks each team's value, and the Perfect Lineup surfaces the highest-upside build of the day. That engine is behind the Woo lean, the Padres call, and the uniques trick further down.

Run the same Sims we used to build today's board. Stokastic Sims gives you the MLB Sims, projected ownership, the Top Stacks Tool, and the Perfect Lineup for DraftKings and FanDuel. For this week only, code MLBSTRATEGY takes 15% off any DFS or Props package in the Fourth of July sale.

Start with Stokastic Sims Simulate the slate up to thousands of times to find the highest-upside lineups instead of trusting one projected score.

Pitchers: Bryan Woo And Cam Schlittler Lead

The outlier on this slate is what Bryan Woo has done at home, and it is not close.

Bryan Woo (SEA) · $9,000 · Mariners vs. Angels

There is no reason he should be a flat $9,000 today. Over seven home starts spanning 45 innings he has posted a .191 wOBA allowed, a 32% strikeout rate, and a 4% walk rate. That is a near-unhittable line at a mid-tier price in a 7.0-total game against the Angels. He grades as the second-highest projected pitcher on the board and one of its best values at once.

• The Case: 7.5-strikeout prop, a 1.5 earned-runs-allowed prop, and elite home splits. Yes, he is getting ownership; in this spot I do not care.
• The Comp: he has been better at home this season than George Kirby, who went eight innings the day before. The price simply has not caught up.

Cam Schlittler (NYY) · $10,500 · Yankees vs. Tigers

Schlittler is the number-one projected pitcher and has been one of the best arms in baseball this year. He carries a 7.5-strikeout prop, a 17.5-outs prop juiced to minus-178, and a 1.5 earned-runs-allowed prop, all in the other 7.0-total game. He is the pay-up that needs no explanation.

Tarik Skubal (DET) · $10,000 · Tigers vs. Yankees

Skubal has not been sharp in three starts since returning, but the strikeouts never left: 17 of them over his last two games, and a 7.5-K prop here. The Yankees bats have been quiet, and if you want elite ceiling in that pitcher game, he is the third option I am happy to roster. Woo, Schlittler, and Skubal are my three highest-exposed pitchers, and that is exactly where I want to be.

The whole pitcher read is the two 7.0-total games. Woo, Schlittler, and Skubal pitch in them, they all carry a 7.5-K prop, and that is why I am comfortable being on the chalk here.

Joe Ryan (MIN) · Twins vs. Astros

Ryan is the cleanest leverage play, priced a notch above Kevin Gausman's $8,700. He has a 6.5-strikeout prop juiced to the over at minus-145 and is simply more consistent than the arms priced around him. Seattle and Houston are nearly identical against righties (similar wOBA, ISO, and strikeout rate), so the Ryan-versus-Soriano choice comes down to the pitcher, and Ryan is the better one.

The value tier is where the savings come from:

• Brandon Sproat (MIL) · vs. Reds — Cincinnati owns the league's highest strikeout rate against righties (25%), and Sproat went six one-hit innings with 10 strikeouts the last time he saw them. At $6,500 he ends up in some builds naturally.
• Connelly Early (BOS) · vs. Nationals — a 24% strikeout rate in a soft Washington spot, with a strikeout history at every level he has pitched.
• Griffin Jax (TB) · vs. Royals — the contrarian dart: a 24% strikeout rate against a weak Kansas City offense, with the only worry being the power he can give up in that wind.

Who I am fading at the price: Kevin Gausman (TOR) at $8,700 is too volatile for that tag, José Soriano (LAA) at $9,500 gets the park but the worse strikeout stuff, and Nolan McLean (NYM) at $9,300 carries a 15-point projection that just does not justify the salary when Woo is cheaper and Schlittler is the better pay-up.

The Stacks: Padres And Cubs Headline Wrigley

The Cubs-Padres game at Wrigley is the slate's headliner: an 11.5 total, 92 degrees, and a 14 mph wind blowing out to left-center. Both sides are in play, and they are my two top stacks.

The San Diego Padres are the value lever. They own the number-one team value score in the Top Stacks Tool, led by Fernando Tatís Jr. and Manny Machado, and on factory settings Tatís is the single most-rostered bat in the build at 59%. The market is there too: Tatís is shopping around plus-285 to homer with a 2.5 hits-plus-runs-plus-RBI prop. He is priced like an okay player having an okay year, which is exactly why the Sims keep getting to him.

The Chicago Cubs are the more expensive side of the same game, with Seiya Suzuki, Dansby Swanson, and Carson Kelly all showing up in the build. If you would rather pay up for the home bats than the visitors, this is where you do it.

Behind Wrigley, the Los Angeles Dodgers (around 12% in three-man stacks behind Shohei Ohtani) and the Tampa Bay Rays against Noah Cameron at Kansas City round out the menu, with some San Francisco Giants exposure (Rafael Devers) and the Marlins at Coors mixed in. Tampa does not own the best value score, but the spot is a good one.

Worked Example: Five Uniques Flatten The Padres Build

Here is the part worth stealing, and it is the easiest way to see the Sims do real work. Left on factory settings, the Sims pour into San Diego: roughly 59% Tatís and a heavy Padres lean on zero uniques. Rather than hand-capping the Padres at 20%, I bumped the build to five uniques, which forces five different players into every lineup and spreads exposure out automatically.

The result was clean. Pitching barely moved (Woo, Schlittler, and Skubal held), but the stacks smoothed out across the board: San Diego dropped from the high-50s down to roughly 23%, Suzuki came down about 12%, and Tampa Bay came up a few points. You keep a quality Padres exposure without living and dying on one team.

Do this in your own build. In the Stokastic MLB Sims, set the uniques to five and re-run 150 lineups. No uniques means a high-ceiling, low-floor concentrated build; more uniques flattens your exposure and lowers your risk of ruin. It is a preference, but on a slate this top-heavy it is the easy way to keep San Diego in play without drowning in them.

Homers From The Odds Screen

If you also shop the home-run market, the OddsShopper odds screen flagged a few prices worth a look on today's slate: Jordan Walker (STL) at plus-450, Lawrence Butler (ATH) at plus-750, and Matt Chapman (SF) at 8-to-1 where FanDuel had him at 6-to-1. Code MLBSTRATEGY works on the props side too. You can compare those numbers across books on the OddsShopper home-run board.

The Bottom Line

This is a solvable slate: pay up for the pitching that is actually worth it (Woo, Schlittler, Skubal, with Joe Ryan as the leverage arm and Sproat the value), then use the savings on the Wrigley bats the Sims love. The Padres have frustrated DFS players all year, but you play the park, the total, and the price, not the storyline. Run five uniques to keep the build balanced, and there is a Live Before Lock show at 11 tonight if you want the final ownership read. You can browse the rest of today's MLB DFS picks and stacks for more.

Get the tools the winners are using. Stokastic Sims runs the MLB Sims, projected ownership, the Top Stacks Tool, and the Perfect Lineup for DraftKings and FanDuel. For the Fourth of July only, code MLBSTRATEGY takes 15% off any DFS or Props package.

Build today's lineups with Stokastic Sims

MLB DFS Picks Today: FAQ

Who is the top pitcher for MLB DFS today (6/30)? Cam Schlittler ($10,500) is the highest-projected arm, with Bryan Woo ($9,000) right behind him and the better value. Both pitch in 7.0-total games, Schlittler against the Tigers and Woo at home against the Angels.

Who is the best value pitcher today? Brandon Sproat at $6,500 against the Reds, who carry the league's highest strikeout rate versus right-handers. Connelly Early and Griffin Jax are the other cheap strikeout arms in play.

Who are the best MLB DFS stacks today? The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs in the 11.5-total Wrigley game, with the wind blowing out at 14 mph. The Dodgers and Rays are the next tier.

How do I flatten my stack exposure in the Sims? Run five uniques instead of capping a team by hand. It forces five different players into every lineup and spread a 59% Tatís build down to a balanced one while barely touching the pitching.

Where can I get the projections and Sims? The full MLB Sims, projected ownership, Top Stacks Tool, and Perfect Lineup are in the Stokastic DataHub. Code MLBSTRATEGY takes 15% off any DFS or Props package this week.