MLB DFS Picks Today 7/1: Heat Fuels the Padres Stack
July 1, 2026
The story of this MLB DFS early slate is the weather, and it is not close. Every game on the afternoon board is 92 degrees or hotter except the one played indoors, and the wind is blowing out at Wrigley (93 degrees, 12 mph out to left-center), Boston (94, 10 mph out to center), and Yankee Stadium (94, 9 mph out to left). That heat is doing two things at once: it is pumping the totals in the outdoor parks, and it is taking a mediocre pitching slate and shrinking the number of arms worth trusting down to a small handful. Here is how I am attacking the Stokastic MLB Sims for DraftKings and FanDuel on this six-game early slate.
In Summary
- The One Clean Pitching Edge Is MacKenzie Gore (TEX) at $8,000 against a Cleveland lineup that is dead last in the league against left-handed pitching. He carries the slate's only 6.5-strikeout prop.
- Popular, Playable Arms: Joey Cantillo (CLE), Will Warren (NYY), and Payton Tolle (BOS), all in the 5.5-K prop range.
- Leverage Arm: Troy Melton (DET) against a watered-down New York Yankees lineup that has been striking out at a top-five clip.
- Top Stacks: San Diego Padres And Chicago Cubs in the 12-total Wrigley game, with the Boston Red Sox as the third team the Sims keep getting to.
- The Whole Slate Is The Heat. Two teams sit at a 4.0 total or lower; nine sit at 4.7 or higher. Play the parks and the totals.
Watch: Stokastic MLB DFS Live Before Lock (7/1)
The full early-slate walkthrough is on the show, with the Sims, the Top Stacks Tool, and projected ownership pulled up live as the six-game board gets built out.
Today's Early Slate At A Glance
Pull up the team totals in the DataHub and the shape of the day is obvious. The Cubs-Padres game at Wrigley is a 12.0 total. The White Sox-Orioles opener sits at 10.5 at 96 degrees. Yankees-Tigers and Red Sox-Nationals are both 9.5. Only two teams on the whole slate carry a 4.0 total or lower, and they are in the same game: Cleveland and Texas, which opened at 8.5 and has since dropped to 7.5 in 92-degree heat. Nine teams sit at a 4.7 total or higher.
That is the whole board. The savings come from a low-total game or two, and the heat forces the bats up in the outdoor bandboxes. The only indoor game is Mets at Blue Jays, which is why Toronto's low strikeout rate makes it the one park you can mostly ignore for pitching.
Build The Slate With The Stokastic MLB Sims
Everything below comes out of the same place: our morning MLB Sims and projections. The Sims run the full contest thousands of times to produce projected ownership, optimal exposures, and a simulated ROI for every name on the board, then the Top Stacks Tool ranks each team's value and the Perfect Lineup surfaces the highest-upside build of the day. That engine is behind the Gore call, the Padres lean, and the Melton leverage play further down.
Run the same Sims we used to build today's board. Stokastic Sims gives you the MLB Sims, projected ownership, the Top Stacks Tool, and the Perfect Lineup for DraftKings and FanDuel. For this week only, code MLBSTRATEGY takes 15% off any DFS or Props package in the Fourth of July sale.
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Pitchers: MacKenzie Gore Is The One Clean Edge
There is no elite arm on this slate. The highest-projected pitcher tops out around 16 fantasy points, and every option has a real drawback. That is exactly why the matchup edge matters so much, and the biggest one belongs to MacKenzie Gore (TEX) at $8,000.
Gore is a boom-or-bust lefty who has been markedly better at home, and yes, this one is on the road. I am not pretending that risk away. But look at what he is facing. Against left-handed pitching this season, the Cleveland active roster is:
- Dead Last in wOBA at .283, 14 points worse than the next-closest team.
- Dead Last in wRC+ at 79, five points worse than the next team up.
- Carrying a 104 ISO on the active roster against lefties, which is almost unheard of.
- Striking out at the sixth-highest clip in the league against lefties, from a team that normally does not strike out much.
That lineup is also short its best bats: José Ramírez is on the injured list, Ángel Martínez is on the injured list, and Travis Bazana is not in the lineup. Gore carries a 6.5-strikeout prop, the only one on the slate that high, plus a 17.5-outs prop. On paper he is the best pitcher and the best matchup on the board, and the road-splits worry is a fair reason to expect variance, not a reason to fade.
The other arms you will actually roster:
- Joey Cantillo (CLE) · $7,700 · vs. Texas — a 15-point projection and a 5.5-strikeout prop. He is popular, and playing him alongside Gore in the same game is fine; stacking two pitchers from one game is nothing like hitting against your own pitcher.
- Will Warren (NYY) · vs. Detroit — a 14-point projection, a 5.5-K prop, and around 25% ownership on a six-game slate.
- Payton Tolle (BOS) · $9,000 · vs. Washington — a 5.5-K prop in a nice spot against a Nationals lineup that looks watered down without CJ Abrams and Luis García.
| Pitcher | Salary (DK) | Matchup | The read |
|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Gore | $8,000 | at Cleveland | Best matchup on the board; only 6.5-K prop |
| Joey Cantillo | $7,700 | vs. Texas | Popular, 15-point projection |
| Payton Tolle | $9,000 | vs. Washington | Nice spot vs. a thin Nationals lineup |
| Will Warren | — | vs. Detroit | 5.5-K prop, ~25% owned |
| Troy Melton | $8,700 | vs. Yankees | Leverage vs. a depleted lineup |
Freddy Peralta (NYM) is the one arm in the cool indoor park, but Toronto's low strikeout rate leaves him with a 4.5-K prop and only the fifth-best projection on the slate; he grades as fine, not a difference-maker. On the cheap end, Noah Schultz (CHW) draws a Baltimore lineup that owns the third-highest strikeout rate against lefties, but 96 degrees, a 10.5 total, and a 3.5-K prop make him a dart rather than a core play. The one arm to avoid at the price is Colin Rea (CHC): a 1.3 HR/9, a 17% strikeout rate, and a 12-total game in the Wrigley wind is a bad combination.
Leverage: Troy Melton And The Watered-Down Yankees
If you want to get off the popular arms, Troy Melton (DET) against the Yankees is the contrarian consideration. He is the second-highest-priced pitcher on the slate at $8,700, which is why the Sims naturally get to only a sliver of him, but the spot is real. New York is missing Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Trent Grisham to the injured list, Jazz Chisholm Jr. may be out of the lineup, and the offense has been a skeleton crew: the active roster ranks sixth in strikeout rate against righties and fifth over the last 30 days. Melton has gone five-plus innings in all six starts and six-plus in four of his last five.
He is not a top-three play, and I would not chase him to a 30% build. But boosting him roughly 20% in the Sims gets you with the field on a underexposed arm, and if that Yankees lineup comes out even thinner than expected, Melton is the leverage swing that pays off.
The Stacks: Heat And Wind Push San Diego And The Cubs
The Sims are jamming the Wrigley game from both sides, and it is easy to see why. The San Diego Padres are the number-one stack: the top team-value score in the Top Stacks Tool, a 6.2 total, wind blowing out, and a lineup so cheap there is not a single bat priced at $5,000. Fernando Tatís Jr. (SD) just went for two home runs, Manny Machado (SD) anchors the middle, and the value plays are everywhere. Gavin Sheets (SD) is $3,200 batting second with the platoon advantage, and Jackson Merrill (SD) is $4,000 batting fifth and showing up in nearly half of builds. When a team is that cheap with that total, it is very hard to get away from.
The Chicago Cubs are the more expensive side of the same game and the number-two stack. Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is the slate's must-have bat at $6,300, the kind of player who lands in a ton of non-stacked lineups on his own, with Seiya Suzuki (CHC) and cheaper pieces like Ian Happ (CHC) and Michael Busch (CHC) filling out the stack.
The Boston Red Sox are the third team worth building. Boston is a different offense against lefties than righties, and they draw the Nationals' Andrew Alvarez (WSH) here: their ISO against left-handed pitching is top-seven and their .350 wOBA leads their own active roster splits, so Alex Bregman (BOS) and the Red Sox bats are live in a 9.5-total game. Behind those three, the Baltimore Orioles (5.6 total, Gunnar Henderson (BAL)), the Chicago White Sox (Colson Montgomery (CHW)), and a thin New York Yankees stack (Austin Wells (NYY) is the highest-owned catcher at 25%) round out the menu.
Worked Example: Capping The Padres And Boosting Melton In The Sims
Here is the part worth stealing, straight off the live build. Left on factory settings, the Sims pour into San Diego to the point that nearly every five-man stack is a Padres stack. Rather than talk yourself out of the team, cap it. Set San Diego to 30% in the Sims and the exposure flows straight into the Cubs, Orioles, White Sox, and Yankees instead of piling onto one roster. On a slate this top-heavy, that is the clean way to keep the Padres' total and price working for you without living and dying on them.
The same tool solves the Melton question the other direction. Melton is naturally underowned because of his $8,700 price, so if you want him as a leverage arm, you nudge his exposure up by hand and watch what the field is doing:
- Boost Him 10% and you still only get to about 6% — under the field.
- Boost Him 20% and you land right with the field on a contrarian arm.
- Boost Him 30% and you are suddenly overexposed, which is more than the spot calls for.
Do this in your own build. In the Stokastic MLB Sims, cap a chalky team like San Diego at 30% to spread exposure automatically, and boost a leverage arm like Melton roughly 20% to sit with the field rather than chase him to a number the slate does not justify. The engine does the exposure math so you are making a leverage decision, not a guess.
The Bottom Line
This is a slate defined by heat: play the parks, play the totals, and accept that the pitching is thin. MacKenzie Gore is the one arm with a genuine matchup edge, Cantillo, Warren, and Tolle are the popular fallbacks, and Troy Melton is the leverage swing against a depleted Yankees lineup. On the bats, the Sims love San Diego and the Cubs in the Wrigley wind, with Boston as the third stack. There is a Live Before Lock show tonight for the main slate if you want the final ownership read, and you can browse the rest of today's MLB DFS picks and stacks for more.
Get the tools the winners are using. Stokastic Sims runs the MLB Sims, projected ownership, the Top Stacks Tool, and the Perfect Lineup for DraftKings and FanDuel. For the Fourth of July only, code MLBSTRATEGY takes 15% off any DFS or Props package.
Build today's lineups with Stokastic Sims
MLB DFS Picks Today: FAQ
Who is the top pitcher for MLB DFS today (7/1)? MacKenzie Gore against Cleveland. The Guardians are dead last in the league against left-handed pitching in both wOBA (.283) and wRC+ (79), and they are missing José Ramírez and Ángel Martínez. Gore carries the slate's only 6.5-strikeout prop.
Who is the best leverage pitcher today? Troy Melton at $8,700 against a New York Yankees lineup missing Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and Trent Grisham. He is underowned because of the price, and a 20% boost in the Sims gets you with the field.
Who are the best MLB DFS stacks today? The San Diego Padres and Chicago Cubs in the 12-total Wrigley game with the wind blowing out, and the Boston Red Sox against a lefty in a 9.5-total game.
Why does the weather matter so much on this slate? Every early game is 92 degrees or hotter except the indoor Mets-Blue Jays game, with the wind blowing out at Wrigley, Boston, and Yankee Stadium. That heat inflates the outdoor totals and is the reason the Padres, Cubs, and Red Sox stacks headline the board.
Where can I get the projections and Sims? The full MLB Sims, projected ownership, Top Stacks Tool, and Perfect Lineup are in the Stokastic DataHub. Code MLBSTRATEGY takes 15% off any DFS or Props package this week.