MLB DFS Picks Today 7/3: The Reds Stack Nobody Sees

The whole board is going to chase the arms and the two Coors bats on this Fourth of July eve, and that is exactly why the best MLB DFS spot today is a team almost nobody is talking about. This is the full breakdown from our July 3 Stokastic MLB DFS Strategy Show with Loughy, walking through an 11-game main slate (four teams sit out) to find the pitchers you can trust, the one stack the Sims are undervaluing, and how it all fits on DraftKings and FanDuel. Every read below is grounded in the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims, projections and ownership, the same tools behind the daily MLB DFS picks hub.

In Summary

• Dylan Cease (TOR) Is The Anchor Arm. An 8.5-strikeout prop against a Seattle lineup carrying a 3.5 team total, the top raw projection on the board by three fantasy points, and a 30% top-two-pitcher probability. He will be popular, so get over the field, not with it.
• Shohei Ohtani (LAD) And Reid Detmers (LAA) Are The Other Two Arms Worth Paying For. Ohtani draws a San Diego offense that stays near the bottom of the slate against righties; Detmers gets a Boston lineup gutted of its best left-handed bats.
• The Cincinnati Reds Are The Sneaky Stack. A .209 ISO against left-handers (highest in baseball) in 94-degree Cincinnati against the lefty Trevor Rogers, and the Sims start them at just 9%. Boost them and you get real leverage.
• Cap The San Francisco Chalk At Coors. The Sims pour into the Giants; trimming them opens up the Yankees, Baltimore and the Athletics.
• Cheap-Pitcher Pivots: Jack Perkins (ATH), Brady Singer (CIN) And Anthony Kay (CWS) all unlock a stronger stack when you pair them with Cease.

Watch: Stokastic MLB DFS Strategy Show (7/3)

The full slate walk-through, including the live Sims run and the pitcher-by-pitcher exposure work, is right here: Watch on YouTube.

Picking The Pitchers: Start With Dylan Cease

The show opened where the slate does, on the expensive arms, and the cleanest one is Dylan Cease (TOR) against the Mariners. Seattle carries just a 3.5 team total, one of the two lowest on the board, and Cease is the highest projected pitcher on the slate by a full three fantasy points with a 30% top-two-pitcher probability in the DataHub. His strikeout prop tells the same story: it sits at 8.5 at FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars, and where a sharp book like Bookmaker hangs the lower 7.5, it is juiced to the over at -183. He is not even priced up the way that profile deserves.

Yes, he will be chalk. Left uncapped, the Sims run him at 89% ownership, and that is fine. The mistake is landing at 40% and getting stuck with the field. If Cease is going to be 40% owned across the industry and you roster him at 80%, that is still a leverage play, because you are at double the field on the best arm on the slate. Get all the way to him or get off him entirely, but the middle is the worst place to be.

After Cease, two more high-priced arms are worth the salary:

The value comes cheaper. Jack Perkins (ATH) at $6,300 against Miami is a rare arm at that number with a 5.5-strikeout prop, a 14.5-outs prop and a 2.5 earned-run prop; the matchup is a little scary, but the price makes him a pairing partner. Brady Singer (CIN) gets a Baltimore lineup that strikes out a lot against righties, though the ballpark is brutal this time of year and his 18% strikeout rate caps the ceiling. Anthony Kay (CWS) is the punt: two starts ago he put up six scoreless innings, three hits and eight strikeouts against this same Cleveland team, and the Guardians are still one of the worst lineups in baseball against left-handers, lowest in ISO with the fewest home runs.

One contrarian name deserves a mention even if it is scary. Logan Webb (SF) is at Coors Field in the heat, which is why the Sims have him at only 10% and that may be high. But since returning from the injured list he has been excellent: a 22% strikeout rate, a 4% walk rate, a 3% barrel rate and a sub-30% hard-hit rate, stringing together seven- and eight-inning outings. He does not miss a ton of bats, but nobody in the league is more reliable at pitching deep into a game. He has no posted props yet, and Coors is Coors, but at low ownership he is a real tournament dart.

And the fades. Gerrit Cole (NYY) at $9,100 has a 5.5-strikeout prop juiced to the under, it will be 100-plus degrees in New York, and he has been inconsistent since coming off the injured list. Kyle Harrison (MIL) has been outstanding for Milwaukee, but $9,700 against Arizona is the wrong spot: the Diamondbacks own a 15% strikeout rate against lefties, the lowest in the league by more than a full point, and they sit third in wOBA, fifth in wRC+ and top-four in ISO against left-handed pitching. Trevor Rogers (BAL) is the one to actively avoid, and that ties directly into the best stack on the board.

Stacking: The Cincinnati Reds Are The Play

Here is the outlier. Trevor Rogers (BAL) is a left-hander, and the Cincinnati Reds are the exact lineup you do not want to hand a lefty. They carry a .209 ISO against left-handed pitching, the highest mark in all of baseball by 10 points, to go with a .343 wOBA and a top-eight wRC+ against lefties. They strike out, sure, but the power is real, and this game is not in some pitcher's park. It is in Cincinnati with the temperature near 94 degrees. Everything that makes a bat stack pop is stacked in the Reds' favor tonight.

And the field is asleep on it. Run the Sims at factory settings and Cincinnati comes back at just 9% because the projections are busy pouring into the Coors game. A small nudge changes everything: boost the Reds even 10% and you are already at roughly three times the field, and a 15% boost gets you to about 27% Cincinnati. You rarely get that kind of leverage on a stack this well-positioned. Eugenio Suarez (CIN) anchors it against the left-hander.

Build these Reds stacks (and every stack below) off the numbers, not a hunch. New to Stokastic? The MLB DFS Sims run thousands of contest simulations to spit out projections, ownership and optimal builds for every slate. Get 15% off any DFS or Props package with code MLBSTRATEGY → ⚾

The rest of the stack board:

The lows tell you where not to look: San Diego (against Ohtani), Seattle at 3.5 (against Cease), Boston at 4.0 (against Detmers) and the White Sox at 4.1. Fade those bats.

Example DraftKings Build

Here is how the pieces fit into one roster. Pair Dylan Cease (TOR) with a cheap arm like Jack Perkins (ATH) at $6,300, which banks salary for the bats. Build a four-man Cincinnati Reds stack around Eugenio Suarez off that 94-degree ballpark and the league-best ISO against the lefty Rogers, then bring a Baltimore Orioles partner led by Gunnar Henderson against Singer. Fill the last spots with a Yankees bat or two (Austin Wells, Jazz Chisholm Jr.) in the Bronx heat. That is one elite arm, one cheap arm, and correlated exposure to two of the best-positioned stacks while the field crowds San Francisco. The best lineups off the show followed this exact shape: Cease plus a value arm, a Baltimore-Cincinnati bat pairing on top.

One live-lineup note: the Sims run before first pitch, and with five night games starting after 9 p.m. ET, the prop market and ownership will keep moving all day. Refresh the Sims once lineups are confirmed before you lock.

Build It Yourself

Every number above, from the projections and ownership to the top-two-pitcher probabilities and the optimal builds pairing Cease with a Baltimore-Cincinnati stack, comes straight out of the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims and optimizer. The same code also unlocks the OddsShopper betting tools and the MLB Prop Tool if you play the props side.

Get 15% off any Stokastic DFS or Props package with code MLBSTRATEGY → ⚾ Sims, projections, ownership and the optimizer for every slate and every sport.

FAQ

Who is the best MLB DFS pitcher today (7/3)? Dylan Cease (TOR) is the anchor, drawing a Seattle lineup with a 3.5 team total. He is the highest projected pitcher on the slate by three fantasy points with a 30% top-two-pitcher probability and an 8.5-strikeout prop. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Reid Detmers (LAA) are the other two arms worth paying up for.

Which team should I stack on the main slate? The Cincinnati Reds are the leverage stack. They own the highest ISO against left-handers in baseball and face the lefty Trevor Rogers in a 94-degree Cincinnati, yet the Sims start them at just 9% ownership. Boost them to get real separation, and cap the San Francisco chalk around 15%.

What is the promo code for Stokastic today? Use code MLBSTRATEGY for 15% off any DFS or Props package, and it works on the OddsShopper betting tools too.

In Summary

• Pitching: Dylan Cease (TOR) is the anchor (8.5 K prop, 3.5 Seattle total, top projection by three points); go over the field at 80%-plus rather than 40%. Pay up for Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Reid Detmers (LAA), and use Jack Perkins (ATH), Brady Singer (CIN) or Anthony Kay (CWS) as the cheap pivots.
• Stacks: The Cincinnati Reds are the outlier, with the best ISO vs. lefties in baseball into the lefty Trevor Rogers in 94-degree heat at only 9% Sim ownership. Baltimore, the Yankees and the Athletics back it up; cap the San Francisco chalk around 15%.
• Refresh the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims once lineups are confirmed, because the props and ownership will keep moving through a night-game-heavy slate.

Watch The Video

Full slate breakdown from the Stokastic MLB DFS Strategy Show with Loughy: Watch on YouTube.