MLB DFS Picks Today: Fade McLean for Greene-Ray (7/10)
July 10, 2026
Friday's 15-game board, the last full MLB DFS slate before the All-Star break, comes down to a salary math problem more than a talent problem. Nolan McLean (NYM) is the best pitcher on the slate and everyone knows it, sitting at 30%+ owned before the Stokastic Sims even ran. Stokastic's Josh Engleman, filling in for Dave Loughran this week, made the case on the MLB DFS Strategy Show that the field is overpaying for that certainty when Hunter Greene (CIN) and Robbie Ray (SF) are sitting right next to him for a fraction of the salary and ownership. That gap is what funds the rest of the build, and it's also exactly why Josh's own pre-recorded Perfect Lineup ended up locking in a stack that isn't even the one the raw Sims liked best.
In Summary
- The Pitcher Play: Hunter Greene (CIN) Vs. CHC And Robbie Ray (SF) Vs. COL — $15,400 combined, freeing up salary the field is instead spending on Nolan McLean (NYM).
- The Fade: Chris Sale (ATL) Vs. STL — "super duper expensive" per Josh, and pulling real ownership despite the price. Nolan McLean is a legitimate ace, not a bad play, just the wrong price for how much of the pool he's eating.
- Robbie Ray's Matchup Is The Outlier: Colorado ranks dead last in wRC+ against lefties and first in strikeout rate against them, and he's $6,800 — with the Sims showing him in 44% of top-150 lineups against a raw 14-15% ownership projection.
- The Stack Decision: the Sims' favorite pairing with Greene/Ray is Baltimore (Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser), showing up in 36% of top-50 five-man stacks. Josh's own Perfect Lineup went the other way, into Kansas City behind Bobby Witt Jr.
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Watch The Video
Watch MLB DFS Strategy (7/10/26) on YouTube for Josh Engleman's full pitcher and stack breakdown, live from the Stokastic Data Hub.
The Pitching: Two Arms Priced Like Afterthoughts
Start where Josh started: Nolan McLean is great, and the board knows it. He came in around 30% owned before the Sims ran and settled at 33% once they did, the clear chalk on a slate that also features Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Chris Sale (ATL) at the top of the salary sheet. Sale is the one Josh explicitly faded, calling him "super duper expensive" while still pulling real ownership. McLean isn't in that same bucket. His problem, for lineup-building purposes, is that Hunter Greene is sitting at roughly half his ownership for a top-two-pitcher probability gap of just 18% to 15%. Doubling your exposure and your salary for three points of upside isn't a bet Josh wants to make.
| Pitcher | Matchup | The read |
|---|---|---|
| Hunter Greene (CIN) | vs. Chicago Cubs | Last time out (7/4), a rough return: 3.1 innings, 20 batters faced, 7 hits, 8 runs, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts. His 6.5 strikeout prop still sits at true even odds (-111/-111, slight juice to the under), and the Cubs are a middling matchup at 11th in wRC+ and 15th in strikeout rate against right-handers. Not a knock, just not a swing factor either way. |
| Robbie Ray (SF) | vs. Colorado Rockies | $6,800, and Josh's favorite value on the board. Colorado is dead last in the league in wRC+ against lefties and first in strikeout rate against them. His stuff isn't what it was (a 20% K rate on the season), but the matchup means he doesn't need it to be: an outs prop in the high teens and a 5.5 strikeout prop, both juiced to the under, project him for roughly six innings and five strikeouts at a price well below the slate's true chalk arm. |
| Nolan McLean (NYM) | vs. Boston Red Sox | The best pitcher on the slate on pure talent, and priced and owned like it: 30% owned before the Sims, 33% after. Not a fade on merit, but a fade on math, since Greene gets you most of the ceiling at half the exposure and real salary relief. |
| Chris Sale (ATL) | vs. St. Louis Cardinals | The explicit fade. "Super duper expensive," in Josh's words, and still pulling ownership Greene and Ray aren't. |
The number that actually sells the Greene/Ray combo isn't either pitcher's own projection, it's what happens when you lock both into the Sims together: across the top 150 generated lineups, Robbie Ray shows up in 44% of them and Hunter Greene in 39%, against a raw projected ownership of just 15% each. Josh's own read on that gap is that the field ends up closer to 17-18% on both by lock, still well short of where the Sims say they should be. Combined, Greene and Ray run $15,400 for two starters, cheap enough that the stack underneath them barely has to be a value play to work.
Build the whole slate with the Sims. Get 15% off any DFS or Props package with code MLBSTRATEGY at Stokastic MLB DFS The Data Hub is what surfaced the Greene/Ray exposure gap before it showed up anywhere else.
The Stacks: Baltimore On Paper, Kansas City In The Actual Lineup
Here's where that salary relief pays off. With Greene and Ray locked in, Josh ran the Sims against every stack on the board, and none of the field's most popular teams graded out as a good value on their own: Baltimore's top-stack ownership sits around 10%, but its raw value score is only 3.5%. Kansas City checks in at 3%, the Cubs at 2%, the Dodgers under 1%. Normally that would be a reason to look elsewhere. It isn't here, because Greene and Ray already delivered the salary savings. The stack doesn't need to be cheap, it just needs to be good, and Baltimore and Kansas City happen to be playing each other.
| Stack | Facing | Sim exposure w/ Greene + Ray | The read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles (BAL) | Kansas City Royals (KC) | 36% of top-50 five-man stacks | Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday, and Colton Cowser make up the sim-preferred four; a fifth Baltimore piece and the rest of the roster gets filled with the highest pure value left on the board. |
| Kansas City Royals (KC) | Baltimore Orioles (BAL) | Not the Sims' top raw pairing, but Josh's own choice | Bobby Witt Jr. is the headline piece. Josh put the Royals in his own pre-recorded Perfect Lineup instead of the Orioles side of this same game. |
The Baltimore row is the one the tool actually likes best, and it's worth sitting with for a second: a Rutschman/Henderson/Holliday/Cowser core showed up in over a third of the top five-man stacks the Sims generated once Greene and Ray were locked in, well clear of every other pairing on the board. One version of that build, with the four Orioles bats plus the best remaining value on the board, graded out at a 76.5% sim ROI in Josh's 10,000-lineup Sims run for this single slate (a tool projection, not a historical track record). That's the version of Friday's slate a purely mechanical build spits out. But Josh's own Perfect Lineup, recorded before the show and built the same way with Greene and Ray locked, went through Kansas City and Bobby Witt Jr. instead. Same game, same pitcher combo funding it, opposite dugout. My takeaway: with Greene and Ray freeing up $15,400 in salary, either side of Royals-Orioles works, and which one you build depends on which bats you trust more than the raw exposure numbers do.
A Worked Example: Building Both Sides
Here's how I'd actually use that salary relief across a multi-entry slate rather than picking one team and locking in. Start every build with Hunter Greene and Robbie Ray at $15,400 combined, the fixed cost that's the same in every lineup I'd build today. From there, build one entry around the Baltimore four (Rutschman, Henderson, Holliday, Cowser), filling the remaining roster spots with the best pure value left on the board regardless of team. In a second entry, flip to the other dugout: Bobby Witt Jr. and the rest of the Royals order, which is the build Josh actually recorded for his own Perfect Lineup. Both versions are funded by the same pitcher combo and both are betting on the same overpriced Nolan McLean chalk staying overpriced. Running them side by side across a 20-lineup or 150-lineup build is the practical way to act on a gap this size without guessing which dugout wins.
How We Build It
Every read above comes out of the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims and projections: the top-two-pitcher probability that separated Greene from McLean, the single-lineup Sim that Josh used to lock Greene and Ray and watch the stack fall out around them, and the Top Stacks tool that flagged Baltimore's 36% share before it showed up in the exposures. Lock your two pitchers first, then let the Sim tell you which stack it wants. Check today's full MLB DFS picks board and Thursday's MLB DFS Strategy recap for the rest of the week's reads, and the MLB home run picks board if you're building props alongside your lineups.
With the All-Star break arriving Monday, grab the discount on a monthly package rather than a weekly one. Friday is the last full slate until next week.
FAQ
What are the best MLB DFS pitchers today, July 10? Hunter Greene (CIN) vs. the Cubs and Robbie Ray (SF) vs. the Rockies, at a combined $15,400. Nolan McLean (NYM) is the better pitcher on paper but is priced and owned like it — 33% owned entering lock.
Should I fade Chris Sale today? Josh's explicit fade. He's "super duper expensive" and still pulling ownership that Greene and Ray, a cheaper and less-owned combo, don't need to match.
Baltimore or Kansas City for the stack today? The Sims like Baltimore best. Rutschman, Henderson, Holliday, and Cowser show up in 36% of the top five-man stacks once Greene and Ray are locked. But Josh's own Perfect Lineup went the other way, into Kansas City behind Bobby Witt Jr. Either side of this game works off the same pitcher savings.
What are the best MLB DFS stacks today? Baltimore (Rutschman, Henderson, Holliday, Cowser) is the Sims' top pairing with the Greene/Ray pitcher combo, and Kansas City behind Bobby Witt Jr. is the version Josh actually built. Both teams are playing each other, so the pitcher savings fund whichever dugout you trust.
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The Bottom Line
Friday's slate isn't about finding a pitcher nobody else has. Nolan McLean is legitimately the best arm on the board, and the field is right to want him. It's about deciding how much of that certainty is worth paying for. Hunter Greene and Robbie Ray get you most of the same outcome, funded at $15,400 combined instead of McLean's near-third of the pool, and that savings is flexible enough to build either side of the Royals-Orioles game and still come out ahead. Robbie Ray is the one I keep coming back to: a $6,800 lefty against the worst lefty-facing offense in baseball, at 14% ownership, is the kind of matchup-price gap this slate doesn't offer twice.
Build it with the Stokastic MLB DFS Sims, and take 15% off any DFS or Props package with code MLBSTRATEGY. Thanks to Josh Engleman and MLB DFS Strategy for the read. Now go build.