NHL DFS Strategy: A Beginner's Guide

When you are just starting out in NHL DFS on DraftKings 🎁 or FanDuel 🎁, don't get cute. Keep it simple, learn the fundamentals, and experiment later. Think of Pablo Picasso. The man didn't start with cubism. He started by learning to paint a portrait. This guide walks through the core NHL DFS strategy that the winning players lean on, so you can build that same foundation. Whether you are reading this for the 2025 season or any season after, the principles hold.

In Summary (TL;DR)

If you only take five things away, take these:

1. Stack, then stack again. Goals create assists, so roster correlated lines together (3-3-2 and 4-3-1 are the bread-and-butter builds).
2. Correlate your goalie with one of your stacks. If the line scores, the goalie usually gets the win.
3. Use real projections. Hockey is noisy, so you need a process that synthesizes shot quality, Vegas totals, and matchup data instead of eyeballing it.
4. Pay up at defense most of the time. Top defensemen are often underpriced and carry safer floors.
5. Watch line changes, injuries, and starting goalies right up to lock. The pre-game line rushes are where beginners can steal an edge.

Below I break down each one, then show how the Stokastic NHL Sim Tools turn these rules into actual lineups.

Stack, Stack, Stack, Then Stack Some More

Correlation is king in NHL DFS strategy. Goals usually mean assists, and assists usually mean a teammate also scored. That is the whole game. When one of your players lights the lamp, you want two or three more of your players getting credit on the same goal. This is what the winning players do, and it is the single biggest thing that separates a beginner build from a contender.

There are a lot of ways to stack, but two builds cover the vast majority of what you will roster:

• 3-3-2: Two full forward lines (three skaters each) from two different teams, paired with two defensemen from two more teams. That is eight skaters across four teams.
• 4-3-1: A four-skater stack from one team (a full forward line plus that team's power-play quarterback defenseman), a three-skater forward line from a second team, and one more skater from a third team. That is eight skaters across three teams.

Both DraftKings and FanDuel classic NHL contests roster eight skaters and a goalie, and they require skaters from at least three teams. That is why the 4-3-1 spreads the lone skater onto a third team rather than piling everyone onto your two stacks: a 4-4 split across only two teams is not a legal lineup. Once you are comfortable, you can experiment with power-play stacks or one full line plus a partial line from another team. But start with the two builds above.

Here is what a clean two-stack looks like in practice. Say the slate gives you a Florida Panthers top line of Reinhart, Verhaeghe, and Barkov in a high-total game, and you pair it with a Boston Bruins line of Pastrnak, Lindholm, and Zacha. That is a 3-3 forward base. Add two defensemen from two other teams and you have a 3-3-2. Or attach Florida's power-play quarterback to the Panthers line, keep the three Bruins forwards, and add one skater from a third team, and you have turned it into a 4-3-1. The exact names rotate every night, but the shape does not.

Correlate Your Goalie In NHL DFS

Try your best to correlate your starting goalie with one of your two stacks. The reasoning is simple. If your line goes off offensively, the team is probably winning, which means your goalie is probably getting the win and the bonus points that come with it. You stack the points on both ends of the same game script.

There is a leverage exception. If your lineup is very chalky and the correlated goalie is one of the highest-owned plays on the slate, you might pivot to a different netminder to differentiate from the field in a large tournament. That is an advanced move, though. As a beginner, correlate the goalie with your stack and let the game script work for you.

Get Real NHL DFS Projections

You cannot win NHL DFS strategy on vibes. Hockey is one of the highest-variance DFS sports, and the only way to fight that long term is with a projection process that is better than guessing.

Good NHL projections synthesize thousands of data points: Corsi For, high-danger chances for and against, recent power-play usage, Vegas team totals, goalie workload, and matchup quality. You want a model that turns all of that into a per-player point projection and, just as importantly, a range of outcomes. Stokastic's NHL projections (free tier available, full data on Stokastic Sims) do exactly that, and they feed directly into the Sim Tools so you are not copying numbers by hand. You can pull NHL projections and ownership at the Stokastic NHL DataHub.

In NHL DFS, elite projections are not a luxury. They are the input that every other decision on this list depends on.

New to Stokastic? The NHL Sim Tools take everything in this guide (stacking rules, goalie correlation, projections, ownership) and simulate the contest tens of thousands of times to find the lineups with the best win probability, instead of just the highest projected score. You can try the DFS Sims for free, and code STOK10 takes 10% off your first payment of Stokastic Sims if you subscribe.

start at tools.stokastic.com/pricing

Pay Up At Defense

This is less a hard rule and more a guideline, because every slate is different. Sometimes a high-priced line is too good to pass up, and sometimes a cheap defenseman is a clear value. But for the most part, you should pay up at defense.

We have had a lot of internal discussion about why the winning players do this, and the consensus is twofold. First, top defensemen are frequently underpriced relative to their workload, so they project well and have safer floors than cheap blueliners. Second, paying up at defense forces you to be contrarian somewhere else. If you spend up on a top defenseman and pair it with a chalky, high-owned top line, you will not have much salary left for a second premium stack. That pushes you into lower-owned third lines or second lines in tougher spots, which is exactly the kind of unique combination that wins large-field GPPs.

In other words, paying up at defense is also a leverage decision. You can see where the field is concentrating its ownership in the Stokastic Ownership Projections and Top Stacks tools, then build the rest of your roster to get unique off that chalk.

Pay Attention To Injuries And Line Changes

Staying on top of line combinations, power-play units, and confirmed starting goalies is one of the most important and most underappreciated parts of becoming a good NHL DFS player. The lineup that looks great at noon can be useless by puck drop if a line gets shuffled or a backup goalie gets the start.

There are two windows when most of this information comes out: after morning game-day skates, and during pre-game line rushes. Because line rushes happen so close to lock, they are where a beginner can actually generate an edge over a casual field by knowing who is skating with whom, who is in and out, and which goalies are confirmed.

If you know you are going to be busy in the lead-up to lock, play it safe or sit the slate out. At minimum, take confirmed goalies and lines that are unlikely to be split up. If a player is a game-time decision and his status will swing the line combinations, being at your lineups when that decision drops is a real edge. This is exactly why we run the Live Before Lock show: to get you the latest news, line changes, and confirmed goalies right up to lock.

One of Stokastic's founders won a GPP years ago because he rostered a player who was sick and unlikely to play, then slotted him in the moment news broke that he was active. That player went off, and the lineup took down the whole tournament. That is the upside of being plugged in at lock instead of locking your lineups hours early.

How To Build An NHL DFS Lineup With The Sim Tools (Worked Example)

Each rule above is a piece. The Stokastic NHL Sim Tools assemble them. Here is the exact workflow I use on a typical slate:

1. Build the player pool from the projections, then nudge exposure up on the lines and goalies I like and down on the ones I am fading.
2. Let the Contest Sims run the slate tens of thousands of times against a simulated tournament field. The sims build correlation in for you, so your stacks stay intact instead of getting scattered, and you get win-probability-ranked lineups instead of one max-projected lineup.
3. Use the Sims to mass-produce builds within my exposure and stacking rules, then trim down to the entries I want.
4. Check ownership and Top Stacks to make sure I am leveraged off the chalk where it counts.

One honest note on variance: even the best pre-lock lineup can finish near the bottom on any given night. That is hockey. The sims do not promise a cash. They tilt the odds in your favor over a large sample, which is the only thing you can actually control. Manage your bankroll, expect swings, and judge yourself on process, not one night's results.

Other Helpful Tips For NHL DFS Beginners

If you are new to NHL DFS, stay away from the sharks at first. Start small. The most experienced players cannot enter the smallest tournaments (roughly $4 entries and under, or contests capped at 150 max entries), so those are friendlier waters for a beginner. Work your way up from there as your process improves.

Find a good odds site and get a feel for which teams are projected for the highest totals and which are not. That tells you which lines are worth paying up for and which goalies are sitting in good spots, which is the starting point for everything else in this NHL DFS strategy guide.

A quick note on history: a lot of this approach traces back to Awesemo.com, now Stokastic.com. The site rebranded, but the projection process and the simulation-first philosophy are the same ones that built the original reputation.

NHL DFS Strategy FAQ

What is the best NHL DFS stack for beginners? Start with a 3-3-2 (two full forward lines plus two defensemen from two other teams) or a 4-3-1 (a four-skater stack including the power-play defenseman, a three-skater line from a second team, and one skater from a third team). Both fill the eight skater spots and satisfy the three-team minimum on DraftKings and FanDuel.

What is the best way to use my goalie in NHL DFS? Correlate your starting goalie with one of your forward stacks. If that line scores, the team is likely winning and your goalie likely gets the win. Pivot off a correlated goalie only when he is very high owned and you need leverage in a large tournament.

How important are projections in NHL DFS? They are the foundation. Hockey is high variance, so you need a model that synthesizes shot quality, Vegas totals, and matchup data into a projection and a range, not a gut feel. The Stokastic NHL projections feed directly into the Sim Tools.

Should I always pay up at defense in NHL DFS? Most of the time, yes. Top defensemen are often underpriced and have safer floors, and paying up forces you to be contrarian elsewhere in your build. It is a guideline, not an absolute, so take an obvious cheap value when the slate gives you one.

When does NHL lineup and goalie news come out? After morning game-day skates and again during pre-game line rushes close to lock. The line rushes are where you can gain the most edge, which is why confirming goalies and lines right before lock matters so much.

Ready To Build Better NHL Lineups?

You now have the core NHL DFS strategy: stack correlated lines, correlate your goalie, trust real projections, pay up at defense, and stay on top of line news at lock. The fastest way to put it into practice is to let the tools do the heavy lifting. Stokastic Sims gives you the NHL Sim Tools, Ownership Projections, Top Stacks, and Live Before Lock in one place. You can try the DFS Sims for free first, and when you are ready to subscribe, code STOK10 takes 10% off your first payment.

Subscribe at tools.stokastic.com/pricing

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