PGA DFS Strategy: How I Build Golf DFS Lineups

If you grind golf DFS, you already know it is the wildest variance ride in the game. You can nail the winner, roster four guys who finish top 20, and still miss the cash line because one player you faded posted 30 points off a Thursday hot round. Golf has the biggest field, the longest scoring window, and the least correlation between "best players" and "best DFS scores" of any sport I play. That is exactly why I lean on simulations instead of gut feel, and this PGA DFS strategy guide is how I actually build for it week to week (the workflow holds up the same way whether you are playing a major or a fall-series event). My golf DFS strategy is the same one I run for DraftKings PGA DFS and FanDuel alike: simulate first, optimize never.

I have been doing this a long time. Back when I was grinding high-volume DFS full time, I got tired of building lineups off a single projected score that never matched what happened on the course, so I started Awesemo.com (now Stokastic.com) to do it the way I wanted: simulate the whole tournament thousands of times and let the math tell me which lineups actually win. Below is how I run a PGA slate with the Stokastic Sims, how to read every column the tool spits out, and how I turn that into a tournament pool I am happy to fire. You can follow along on this week's slate in the free DFS Sims.

In Summary

• Golf is a ceiling game, so build for tournaments, not medians. PGA DFS is dominated by huge single-entry and mass-multi-entry GPPs. You are chasing the top fraction of a percent, which is what simulating the field surfaces.
• Simulate the contest, do not optimize one score. The Stokastic Sims run the tournament tens of thousands of times so variance, ownership, and the cut all show up in the result, then rank every lineup by simulated ROI.
• Read the right columns. Win%, Top 10%, and Cash% tell you what kind of lineup you are holding; Dupes tells you how unique it is in a big field.
• Leverage off the chalk. Your golf score only matters relative to the field, so getting over the crowd on a lower-owned ceiling play is the real edge.
• Process over results. Even the best build by simulated ROI can whiff on a single weekend. Size your entries with bankroll discipline first, then let the tools build inside that budget.

Why PGA DFS Rewards Simulation Over a Single Projection

Most golf DFS players still build the way I used to: open an optimizer, plug in projections, and take the single highest-projected six-man lineup that fits the salary cap. That is fine if your goal is one median outcome, but a PGA tournament is the opposite of a median. There are 120-plus players in the field, four rounds of scoring, a Friday cut that can erase half your roster, and almost no correlation pulling your guys' scores together. The "best" lineup on paper is the one that scores best if every golfer posts exactly his forecast, which over four rounds basically never happens.

The Stokastic Sims start from a different question. Instead of "what is the best lineup if everyone hits projection," they ask "across thousands of plausible versions of this tournament, how often does this lineup finish near the top?" To answer it, the tool builds a full player pool, generates a field, and runs the event tens of thousands of times, letting each golfer's outcome vary the way it really does: a missed cut, a hot Saturday, a back-nine collapse. All of that lives in the distribution rather than getting flattened into one number. This is the same simulation-first idea behind our whole DFS strategy framework, and if you want the head-to-head on why a simulator beats a plain optimizer for tournaments, I broke that down in DFS sims vs optimizers.

How to Read the Stokastic PGA Sims Output

When you run a PGA slate through the Sims and pull up your lineups, the tool ranks them and gives you a few columns that do all the heavy lifting. These are the numbers I read on every build before I decide what to enter:

• Win% is the percentage of time the lineup finished in first place across all the simulation runs. This is your raw ceiling number. In a big top-heavy GPP, this is the column I care about most.
• Top 10% is the percentage of time the lineup finished inside the top 10 across all the runs. It tells you how often a build is "close" to a score that prints, even when it does not take down first.
• Cash% is the percentage of time the lineup landed in a paying spot across all the runs. In a tournament with thousands of entries, modest Cash% on a high-ceiling build is normal and fine; in a smaller or flatter contest, I weight this higher.
• Dupes is the number of times the lineup got duplicated inside the simulated contest pool. In golf GPPs, uniqueness is huge: a lineup that is going to be duplicated dozens of times splits its equity with everyone else holding it, so I fade builds with a scary Dupes count even when the ceiling looks great.

The trick is that no single column is the answer. A lineup with a monster Win% but an ugly Dupes number is not as good as it looks, because half the field is going to share it. A lineup with a great Cash% but a low Win% is a cash-game build, not a tournament dart. I am looking for the combination: strong Win% and Top 10%, with a Dupes count low enough that I am not just buying a lottery ticket the whole field already owns.

Build the Pool, Then Find Your Lineups

My actual weekly process with the Sims looks like this, and it is the same loop our experts run on the Stokastic shows:

1. Build the whole player pool. I do not start by hand-picking six golfers. I set my pool of plausible plays for the slate, boost the guys I am higher on than the projection, and negatively boost the ones I want minimal exposure to. The pool is the input the simulation chews on.
2. Run the Sims and let the tool find the top lineups. Once the pool is set, the simulation generates and scores thousands of lineups against the field and ranks them by simulated ROI, not by projected points. That ranking is where Win%, Top 10%, Cash%, and Dupes come from.
3. Nudge exposure. I read the top lineups, see which golfers are showing up too often or too little for my taste, and adjust boosts. Then I re-run. The goal is a pool of lineups I believe in, with exposure to the leverage plays I want, not 20 copies of the same chalk six.

When I am happy with the pool, I select my lineups. You can favorite them one at a time, or use the quick-favorite dropdown in the top right to grab the number of lineups you want all at once. Then I hit Export Favorites to push them out to CSV, which uploads straight to DraftKings or FanDuel. If you want to see this run live instead of reading it, the Stokastic DFS YouTube channel walks the PGA Sim tools through this same flow on the strategy shows, click by click.

Stop building golf lineups off one projected score. The Stokastic PGA Sims simulate the whole tournament tens of thousands of times and rank every lineup by simulated ROI, with ownership leverage and uniqueness built right in. New members get 10% off their first Stokastic+ payment with code STOK10: Get Stokastic+. You can also pull up this week's slate in the free DFS Sims first.

Ownership and Leverage: The Real Golf DFS Edge

Here is the part a plain optimizer never reasons about. In a large-field PGA GPP, your score does not matter in a vacuum, it matters relative to the field. You are not just beating a projection, you are beating thousands of other entries, and most of them are built off the same public projections you are looking at. That makes leverage, getting over the field on golfers the crowd is underrating, the actual currency of golf tournaments.

The Sims fold in Ownership Projections so you can simulate how often a low-owned golfer beats expectations and then build exposure toward that under-owned upside on purpose. Picture two players priced similarly with nearly the same projection. One is sitting at 35% projected ownership, the other at 8%. The optimizer sees a near-tie. The simulator sees that when the low-owned golfer goes on a heater and finishes top five, your lineup leaps over the thousands of entries piled onto the popular play, while the popular play hitting just keeps you tied with the field. The tool surfaces that leverage automatically by reporting each golfer's projected ownership next to his simulated upside, so the gap is right there in front of you. That exposure-minus-ownership gap is the leverage number I read on every name before I lock. Golf amplifies this more than any sport, because the winner each week is so rarely the chalk that the whole field is most exposed to. If you want the deep version, the ownership and leverage guide walks through exactly how to read and act on those numbers, and you can pull live PGA ownership and projections from the PGA DataHub.

A Worked Example: Why Win% Without Dupes Can Fool You

Let me make it concrete. Say I run a PGA slate and the Sims hand me two lineups that simulate almost identically. Lineup A leans on the two highest-projected, highest-owned favorites in the field plus four solid mid-tier names; it shows a Win% of 0.9% and a great Cash%, but the Dupes count is ugly. Lineup B swaps one of those popular favorites for a similarly projected golfer sitting in single-digit ownership; its Win% is a hair lower at 0.8%, but its Dupes count is a fraction of Lineup A's.

On raw Win% and Cash%, the optimizer crowd takes Lineup A every time. Run them through the tournament simulation, though, and the picture flips. Lineup A is wedged into the most crowded part of the field, so even in the runs where it wins, dozens of near-identical builds win with it and the first-place equity gets split a dozen ways. Lineup B wins slightly less often, but in the runs where it hits it is sitting almost alone near the top of a top-heavy leaderboard, where the real money is. That is why I read Win%, Top 10%, and Dupes together instead of chasing the single biggest Win% number. The lineup that is built to be alone at the top is worth more than the one the whole field already owns.

Process over results. I have watched a Stokastic strategy show break down a night in another sport where the single best lineup by simulated ROI finished 42,189th and the fourth-best finished 17,000th. Golf is even higher variance than that. That is the range you are playing inside, so you simulate thousands of contests instead of trusting one weekend, and you let bankroll discipline carry you across the swings.

Cash Games vs. Tournaments in Golf DFS

I want to be precise about scope, because this is where people misuse the Sims. Everything above, simulated ROI, leverage, Win%, the whole tournament workflow, is built for GPPs. Golf DFS cash games are a different animal and reward the opposite kind of lineup.

In a 50/50, double-up, or head-to-head, you only need to beat roughly half the field. There is no top-heavy payout to leverage toward and no reason to chase a low-owned boom. What you want is the highest-floor build: golfers with the best chance to make the cut and grind out a steady, safe finish, not the volatile one-week ceiling plays. So for cash I do not reach for the leveraged tournament pool at all. I build for floor and make-the-cut probability, and I keep my exposure to the boom-or-bust names for the GPPs. The full split between the two formats lives in the GPP vs cash builds guide.

Size It First: Bankroll and Multi-Entry

One caution before you go simulate everything in sight. None of this edge survives bad sizing, and golf is where bankrolls go to die if you are not careful, because the variance is so brutal and the temptation to fire 150 lineups into a big GPP is so strong. The Sims help you build better tournament lineups, but how many you can responsibly enter, and how you split money between cash and GPPs, is a separate discipline. Multi-entry scales with your bankroll, not your ambition. Set the sizing first in the bankroll management guide, then let the tools do the building inside that budget. I would rather fire 20 well-leveraged, low-Dupes lineups I believe in than 150 copies of the same chalk.

The Honest Verdict

Golf DFS is a tournament game with the highest variance and the biggest fields in the sport, and that is exactly the environment where simulation beats a single projected score by a mile. Build your whole pool, run it through the Stokastic Sims, read Win%, Top 10%, Cash%, and Dupes together rather than chasing any one of them, leverage off the chalk where the projections justify it, and size your entries with bankroll discipline. That is the whole PGA DFS strategy I run every week, and it is why I have not built a golf lineup off a single projected number in years.

Run It on This Week's PGA Slate

Want to put this to work right now? Start with the free DFS Sims, build a tournament pool for this week's event, run it, and watch how reading Win% alongside Dupes reshuffles the lineups a plain optimizer would have handed you. Pull live ownership and projections from the PGA DataHub. When you are ready for full access across every sport, code STOK10 takes 10% off your first Stokastic+ payment: Get Stokastic+.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the best PGA DFS strategy for tournaments? Build for ceiling, not median. PGA DFS is dominated by large top-heavy GPPs, so you want a high-Win%, low-Dupes lineup that leverages off the most-owned chalk onto similarly projected lower-owned golfers. The Stokastic Sims rank your builds by simulated ROI against the field, which surfaces exactly those tournament-winning lineups instead of the median build an optimizer hands you.

How do PGA DFS sims work? The Sims build a full player pool, generate a field of lineups, and run the tournament tens of thousands of times with each golfer's outcome varying the way it really does over four rounds and a cut. Then they rank every lineup by simulated ROI and report Win%, Top 10%, Cash%, and Dupes so you can see how each build performs across thousands of plausible versions of the event.

What do Win%, Top 10%, Cash%, and Dupes mean in the Sims? Win% is how often a lineup finished first across all the runs, Top 10% is how often it finished inside the top 10, and Cash% is how often it landed in a paying spot. Dupes is how many times the lineup got duplicated in the simulated field, which measures uniqueness. Read them together: a big Win% with a high Dupes count is worse than it looks, because the field shares it.

Should I use the PGA Sims for cash games? No, the leverage and simulated-ROI workflow is built for tournaments. For cash games (50/50s, double-ups, head-to-heads) you only need to beat about half the field, so build for the highest floor and best make-the-cut probability instead of chasing low-owned ceiling plays.

Do PGA DFS sims promise a winning weekend? No. Golf is the highest-variance sport in DFS, and even the best lineup by simulated ROI can miss the cash entirely on a given weekend. The Sims are designed to improve your win probability over a large sample of contests, not to promise any single result, so manage your bankroll accordingly.