Polymarket Combo Simulator: Fair Odds On Every Parlay

Prices as of Tuesday, September 29, 2026, 11:40 p.m. CT. Polymarket prices, before fees. The sims behind the simulator refresh before kickoff.

Yes, Polymarket takes parlays. They are called combos in the app, each one is priced on its own, and as of Tuesday, September 29, 2026, the only question that matters is whether the price you are offered is fair. That is what this page answers. Pick a final score, tilt the play calling, choose how many legs and what markets, and the simulator returns combos with two numbers on each: what the legs pay together at the price on Polymarket, and what 10,000 Stokastic Sims say the combo is worth.

One thing to know before you open it: Polymarket lists no player props for this game, only the moneyline, the spreads, the totals and the halves, so tonight's combos are two game lines at a time. The Kalshi version of this page carries the props. The day Polymarket lists them, the same simulator prices them here.

Build your own Steelers-Browns Polymarket combo.

Pick the final score, the play calling and how many legs, and the simulator prices the fair combo against the price on Polymarket, from 10,000 simulated games. Open the Polymarket Combo Simulator

New to Polymarket?

The combos this page prices are sold in the Polymarket app. Get Polymarket with code OS3

The Game Lines

Steelers to win 58¢, Browns 43¢. The sims give Pittsburgh 55% and Cleveland 45%, so both sides sit within a few cents of fair and neither is the play on its own. The spread is where the two disagree: Steelers by 3 or more is 53¢ on Polymarket against 50% in the sims, and by 4 or more is 42¢ against 45%, which means the market pays more for the bigger cover than the sims think it should. The total is a coin flip on both sides of 38.5: Over is 50¢ against 51% in the sims, Under 51¢ against 49%. Two defenses, a short week, and a total the sims and the market both put at 38 mean the value in the combos below comes from how the legs move together, not from any one line.

How To Read A Combo

Every leg is a real Polymarket market. The sims played this game 10,000 times, play by play, so a leg's chance is the share of games it hits in and a combo's chance is the share where every leg hits. The sims carry the correlation. Legs that rise and fall together are worth more as a combo than multiplied one by one, and the simulator shows you both numbers. When the sims price is above the price on Polymarket, the combo is worth a look. When it is below, pass, no matter how good the story sounds.

Six Combos At The Sims' Score

The simulator opens at the sims' median score, Steelers 20, Browns 19, two legs, low correlation. These are the six it returns there, with the sims price first and the legs-alone price second.

Combo 1. Steelers win, Over 37.5. Sims 30.4¢, legs alone 31¢. The straight read: Pittsburgh wins a game with a little scoring in it.

Combo 2. Steelers win, Over 38.5. Sims 29.1¢, legs alone 29¢. Same read, one rung up on the total.

Combo 3. Steelers by 2 or more, Over 37.5. Sims 28.8¢, legs alone 30¢. The cover version; the sims like it a touch less than the win.

Combo 4. Steelers by 3 or more, Over 37.5. Sims 28.0¢, legs alone 29¢. A field-goal cover in a game that reaches 38.

Combo 5. Steelers win, Over 39.5. Sims 27.6¢, legs alone 28¢. The higher-scoring win.

Combo 6. Steelers by 3 or more, Over 38.5. Sims 26.8¢, legs alone 27¢. The cover and the total together.

Read them honestly: on game lines alone, the sims and Polymarket agree to within a cent on every combo, so none of the six is a gift at tonight's prices. The simulator earns its keep when the legs move together, which is what player props give it. Until Polymarket lists them for this game, treat these as fairly priced and take the single leg you like most instead.

Change the score and every one of these moves. That is the point of the simulator over a fixed list: your read of the game is the input, and the price follows it.

What Moves The Price From Here

Pittsburgh is without Rico Dowdle, so Jaylen Warren carries the load, and Jalen Ramsey is questionable with a wrist injury while Brandin Echols is in the concussion protocol. Cleveland has Teven Jenkins out with a back injury and Tytus Howard, Grant Delpit and Elgton Jenkins all questionable, which is most of the line in front of Deshaun Watson against T.J. Watt. The inactives at 6:45 p.m. ET reprice every passing leg on both sides. The forecast is 76 degrees with a 30 percent chance of rain and gusts to 14 miles an hour off the lake, which drags the total and pushes the run-heavy combos up. The sims behind the simulator refresh before kickoff, so open it again after inactives and the six combos will not be the same six.

Where This Goes

Thursday it is one game. Every NFL game gets its own file each week, and the same simulator prices an NBA night or a hockey slate the day those markets list. The standing address for it is this page. The Kalshi version lives at Kalshi Parlay Builder.

Hero illustration: the Polymarket Combo Simulator, Steelers at Browns, Stokastic.