Buffalo Bills Predictions (3-0)
Week 4: the Bills host the New England Patriots on Sunday, Oct. 4.
Updated recentlyPrices and news refresh every few minutes
The Bills' 2026 schedule
Tap an upcoming game to set a win, tap again for a loss, and a third time to clear it.
How many games the Bills win
Each bar is the chance the Bills finish with exactly that many wins, priced to Kalshi's markets. The Bills average 12.5.
How far they go
The Bills' chance of reaching each playoff round.
The division race
Who wins the AFC East. The four chances add to 100%.
Prices in cents are Kalshi's probabilities (40¢ = 40%). The engine's numbers come from a simulation and assume the storyline you set; they are not a forecast of who wins. Event contracts involve risk.
How the Season Engine works
The Season Engine plays the rest of the 2026 NFL season 6,000 times. Every game left on the schedule gets a result in each of those seasons, so every season ends with final standings, a playoff bracket and a Super Bowl champion.
Each team's strength comes from Kalshi's win-total markets. The engine rates all 32 teams so that its seasons line up with what those markets price. With no storyline set, the Buffalo Bills average 12.5 wins.
Every percentage on the page is how often something happened across those seasons. The Bills made the playoffs in 5,585 of the 6,000, so the engine prices a playoff spot at 93%. They won the division in 82% of them and the Super Bowl in 11%.
A storyline changes the inputs and replays all 6,000 seasons. Because each season is played game by game, one change moves every market together. A win over the Patriots raises the Bills' average wins, playoff chance, division chance and Super Bowl chance at the same time.
These are Season Engine numbers, not Kalshi's. Next to each one you see Kalshi's bid and ask for the same contract.
A missing starting quarterback costs what separates him from his backup: Josh Allen is worth about 9.3 points a game more than Kyle Allen, from expected points added per play over the last three seasons, weighted toward this one and pulled toward replacement level when the sample is small. Injury storylines use editorial point values by position and depth-chart rank. It does not model weather or coaching changes, and a tie counts as half a win.
How to use it
- Start with the market. With no storyline set, every number is priced to Kalshi. Once you change something, the dashed outlines and white ticks on the charts keep the market's view.
- Pick a storyline. Presets marked ● come from the latest news, like “A healthy Bills lineup vs. the Patriots”. The others are common what-ifs.
- Tap a game on the schedule to set it as a win or a loss.
- Move a slider only if you have a read: how long Josh Allen is out, whether the Bills are better or worse than priced, or how good a division rival is.
- Read the four tiles, then the charts: how many games the Bills win, how far they go and the division race.
- Compare with Kalshi. Each playoff and division row shows Kalshi's bid to ask in blue. Where your storyline lands outside it, it disagrees with the market. “Thin market” means few trades or a wide spread, so that price says less.
- Reset to the market to start over.
Kalshi prices as of September 30 at 6:24 PM CT. The page updates throughout the day as prices and the ESPN injury report change, and new news storylines appear as the injury report does.