Washington Commanders Predictions (1-2)
Week 4: the Commanders play the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, Oct. 4 at a neutral site.
Updated recentlyPrices and news refresh every few minutes
The Commanders' 2026 schedule
Tap an upcoming game to set a win, tap again for a loss, and a third time to clear it.
How many games the Commanders win
Each bar is the chance the Commanders finish with exactly that many wins, priced to Kalshi's markets. The Commanders average 7.1.
How far they go
The Commanders' chance of reaching each playoff round.
The division race
Who wins the NFC East. The four chances add to 100%.
Prices in cents are Kalshi's probabilities (40¢ = 40%). The engine's numbers come from a simulation and assume the storyline you set; they are not a forecast of who wins. Event contracts involve risk.
How the Season Engine works
The Season Engine plays the rest of the 2026 NFL season 6,000 times. Every game left on the schedule gets a result in each of those seasons, so every season ends with final standings, a playoff bracket and a Super Bowl champion.
Each team's strength comes from Kalshi's win-total markets. The engine rates all 32 teams so that its seasons line up with what those markets price. With no storyline set, the Washington Commanders average 7.1 wins.
Every percentage on the page is how often something happened across those seasons. The Commanders made the playoffs in 1,190 of the 6,000, so the engine prices a playoff spot at 20%. They won the division in 10% of them and the Super Bowl in 1%.
A storyline changes the inputs and replays all 6,000 seasons. Because each season is played game by game, one change moves every market together. A win over the Colts raises the Commanders' average wins, playoff chance, division chance and Super Bowl chance at the same time.
These are Season Engine numbers, not Kalshi's. Next to each one you see Kalshi's bid and ask for the same contract.
A missing starting quarterback costs what separates him from his backup: Jayden Daniels is worth about 1.6 points a game more than Marcus Mariota, from expected points added per play over the last three seasons, weighted toward this one and pulled toward replacement level when the sample is small. Injury storylines use editorial point values by position and depth-chart rank. It does not model weather or coaching changes, and a tie counts as half a win.
How to use it
- Start with the market. With no storyline set, every number is priced to Kalshi. Once you change something, the dashed outlines and white ticks on the charts keep the market's view.
- Pick a storyline. Presets marked ● come from the latest news, like “A healthy Commanders lineup vs. the Colts”. The others are common what-ifs.
- Tap a game on the schedule to set it as a win or a loss.
- Move a slider only if you have a read: how long Jayden Daniels is out, whether the Commanders are better or worse than priced, or how good a division rival is.
- Read the four tiles, then the charts: how many games the Commanders win, how far they go and the division race.
- Compare with Kalshi. Each playoff and division row shows Kalshi's bid to ask in blue. Where your storyline lands outside it, it disagrees with the market. “Thin market” means few trades or a wide spread, so that price says less.
- Reset to the market to start over.
Kalshi prices as of September 30 at 6:30 PM CT. The page updates throughout the day as prices and the ESPN injury report change, and new news storylines appear as the injury report does.