Where Does The S&P 500 End 2026? 8 AI Models Price Every Band
By Jake Hari
July 27, 2026
TL;DR
The panel's most likely bands: 7,600 to 7,799.99 (12%), 7,400 to 7,599.99 (12%), 7,800 to 7,999.99 (11%). Each model priced the entire band set in one coherent pass (columns sum to 100 before rounding) — every column sums to 100 before rounding — from live data fetched at generation time.
With the index near 7,390 after a choppy July, Kalshi's year-end board spreads conviction thin: the top band trades at just 14 cents. Each model built one coherent distribution across all 27 bands from the live index level and realized volatility — the honest way to price five months of uncertainty, and a direct test of whether model vol math beats crowd vibes.
The Bands
| Band | Kalshi | AI blend | ChatGPT (GPT-5.5) | Claude Fable | Claude Opus | Claude Sonnet | Gemini 3.1 Pro | GLM 5.2 | Kimi K3 | DeepSeek V4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7,800 to 7,999.99 | 14¢ | 11% | 13% | 13% | 10% | 8% | 10% | 9% | 10% | 12% |
| 7,600 to 7,799.99 | 13¢ | 12% | 14% | 14% | 10% | 9% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 15% |
| 8,000 to 8,199.99 | 10¢ | 9% | 10% | 11% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| 7,400 to 7,599.99 | 9¢ | 12% | 14% | 13% | 10% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 15% |
| 7,200 to 7,399.99 | 6¢ | 10% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 12% |
| 8,200 to 8,399.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 6% | 7% | 6% |
| 6,600 to 6,799.99 | 5¢ | 5% | 3% | 3% | 5% | 7% | 4% | 6% | 5% | 4% |
| 6,800 to 6,999.99 | 5¢ | 6% | 5% | 5% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 6% |
| 7,000 to 7,199.99 | 4¢ | 8% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 9% | 8% |
| 8,400 to 8,599.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 4% |
| 3,999.99 or below | 3¢ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5,800 to 5,999.99 | 3¢ | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 6,000 to 6,199.99 | 3¢ | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 6,200 to 6,399.99 | 3¢ | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| 8,800 to 9,000 | 3¢ | 2% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% |
| 4,000 to 4,199.99 | 2¢ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5,400 to 5,599.99 | 2¢ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 6,400 to 6,599.99 | 2¢ | 3% | 2% | 2% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 4% | 4% | 2% |
| 8,600 to 8,799.99 | 2¢ | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% |
| 9,000.01 or above | 2¢ | 3% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 0% |
| 4,200 to 4,399.99 | 1¢ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4,400 to 4,599.99 | 1¢ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4,600 to 4,799.99 | 1¢ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 4,800 to 4,999.99 | 1¢ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5,000 to 5,199.99 | 1¢ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5,200 to 5,399.99 | 1¢ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| 5,600 to 5,799.99 | 1¢ | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% |
The Reasoning
ChatGPT (GPT-5.5): From 7,389.71, Dec. 31 is about five months away, so a 15-17% annualized index volatility implies roughly 9.5-11% horizon sigma before fat tails; a 200-point band is only about 2.7% of spot, so probability should be spread across several adjacent bins. The card is mildly bearish tactically: price is below both the 20d and 50d averages and in the lower third of the 30d range, so I do not put the mode far above spot. Still, base rates for five-month S&P returns are positive, and absent recession/crash information the median should drift into the mid/high 7,000s. I give meaningful but not dominant weight to 8,000+ because a normal rally from current levels can reach it, while sub-6,600 needs a drawdown exceeding roughly 11% and receives tail mass. Very low crash bands remain nonzero but small.
Claude Fable: Spot 7,390 with ~5.2 months to Dec 31. Historical base rate: equities drift ~+4% over 5 months (~7,650-7,700 median), so mass centers on the 7,400-8,000 region. Vol math: with realized vol around 13-15% annualized, 5-month sigma is ~9-10%, i.e. roughly +/-700 points at one standard deviation (6,700-8,100), and two sigma spans ~6,000-8,800. The card shows mild near-term weakness (below 20d and 50d MAs, 33% of the 30d range), which nudges the near-term path lower but says little about year-end. I add left skew because drawdowns are fatter than rallies (post-run-up valuations, rate/inflation surprises, election-year policy follow-through), giving ~30% probability of finishing below spot and ~10% of a >10% decline. Right tail (>8,400) gets ~12% for a continued momentum melt-up. Extreme bands below 6,000 collectively get ~2%, matching the historical frequency of >20% five-month crashes. [Editor's note: one probability aside in this analysis is inconsistent with the same model's band table; treat the bands as the verdict.]
Claude Opus: Spot is 7,389.71 with ~5.2 months (0.43yr) to the Dec 31 close. Realized/implied equity vol of roughly 15% annualized gives sigma ≈ 15%×sqrt(0.43) ≈ 9.8%, about 730 points , so a one-sigma band spans roughly 6,850–8,350, and no single 200-point bucket should exceed about 11%. Base rates favor a modest positive drift (equities rise ~70% of five-month windows; median H2 drift ~+3%), so I center the distribution near 7,600, slightly above spot. The technical card is mildly negative short-term , price sits below both the 20d (7,492) and 50d (7,471) MAs and at only 33% of the 30d range (7,294–7,582) , which argues against pulling the center much higher, but momentum at that horizon carries little information. I fatten the left tail relative to lognormal (drawdowns of 15–25% happen in roughly 1-in-8 years) and keep an open right tail above 9,000 at 5% for a melt-up continuation.
Model estimates generated July 27, 2026, price-blind from live fetched data. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial or trading advice. Models are frequently wrong; the market price reflects real traders' money. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange; 18+, availability varies by state.
FAQ
Why do the model percentages differ from the Kalshi price?
The models never see the price. When they disagree with the crowd, one side is wrong, and we grade every verdict against real settlements on our public scoreboard.
Are model verdicts betting advice?
No. Model verdicts are model estimates, not betting or financial advice. Treat them as one input among many and make your own decisions.