NFL teams kick off training camp in just a few weeks, and that means it’s fantasy football draft season. With the wide range of tools and analysis at Stokastic, we have you covered in everything from Daily Fantasy Sports to Season Long Fantasy Football, including Stokastic’s rankings for all the major sites.
If a top dual-threat option such as Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts falls to the selection below their relative draft position, they become the first of two quarterbacks selected. If the board falls in favor of electing more skill position players, focus on snagging some sleeper options toward the back end of the draft. For this latter method, selecting three quarterbacks covers the larger variance of output for these options.
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Quarterback scoring varies greatly by matchup for lower-tier options, as they are often a part of a less potent offenses or don’t possess the safety blanket of providing production on the ground. Last season, less than 50 points separated QB1 (Josh Allen) from QB4 (Patrick Mahomes), while the same margin separated QB14 (Carson Wentz) and QB22 (Trevor Lawrence). For those who value a quarterback with the ability to put up 20 points, there are about 10 options capable of doing so, evident by last year’s statistics. However, if placing less value on quarterback production and instead finding the players poised for breakout or high upside, then look no further.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (Underdog ADP: 140.2)
Last season’s first overall pick enters his sophomore season with arguably more opportunity than any quarterback drafted in the 10th round or later. Coming off a historically inefficient rookie campaign, the Jaguars welcomed a new coaching staff with plans to capitalize on Lawrence’s promising skillset. During his time in the NFL, head coach Doug Pederson has a track record of improving his quarterback’s play. Lawrence, who ranked seventh in pass attempts (602) and fifth in rushing attempts (72) for quarterbacks last season, has an improved offensive roster this year. Expect the additions of All-Pro lineman Brandon Scherff and wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to allow Lawrence to experience positive regression in 2022.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants (Underdog ADP: 156.7)
A neck sprain suffered in Week 12 cost Jones six games last season, but he saw his interception percentage, yards per attempt and completion percentage all improve for the third consecutive season. His sack percentage was the lowest of his career, and after New York heavily addressed their offensive line this offseason, assume less of a dumpster fire upfront. Head coach Brian Daboll has spent his past four seasons developing Josh Allen into an elite dual-threat quarterback. Jones ironically shares nearly identical Pre-draft measurables to Allen.
| QB | Ht | Wt | 40-yd | 10-yd Split | 20-yd Split | 20-yd Shuttle | 3-cone | Vertical | Broad | Wonderlic |
| Josh Allen | 6’4⅞” | 237 | 4.75s | 1.59s | 2.74s | 4.40s | 6.90s | 33.5 in | 9’11 | 37 |
| Daniel Jones | 6’5⅛” | 221 | 4.72s | 1.62s | 2.63s | 4.41s | 7.00s | 33.5 in | 10’ | 37 |
Jones averaged 23.6 fantasy points per game through the first four games of 2021, displaying his potential upside as a dual-threat quarterback. He’s currently projected for 17.99 fantasy points/game, which ranks significantly higher than any quarterback selected at his ADP. Watch for the improved health of offensive weapons Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay, as well as the ascension of second-year wide receiver Kadarius Toney, to propel this offense as a surprise unit next season.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (Underdog ADP: 186.2)
Detroit presents one of the most intriguing offensive units in football heading into 2022. Goff ranked top 10 in pass attempts per game (35.29) last season for a Lions team that went 3-13-1. Despite the team’s struggles, Goff produced QB3 (Week 1), QB7 (Week 13), and QB8 (Week 15) performances. This season, the Lions may have one of the strongest offensive lines in the league and improved their wide receiver corps dramatically by adding D.J. Chark Jr. and first-round selection Jameson Williams to complement last year’s breakout rookie, Amon-Ra St. Brown. The expectation is that Detroit will be playing from behind in most games, allowing Goff to compile pass attempts. While his season long value isn’t one Stokastic experts favor chasing, his upside in Best Ball formats is undeniable.
Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers (Underdog ADP: 192.9)
Over the first four games of the 2021 season, Sam Darnold produced QB5 numbers, trailing only Patrick Mahomes , Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts and Tom Brady. Cam Newton added another pair of QB4 performances to the Panthers’ season, exhibiting the potential upside this Ben McAdoo offense carries. While Baker Mayfield struggled last year in Cleveland, he was dealing with multiple serious injuries (a torn labrum and fractured humerus bone) and had a battered receiving corps for most the season. In Carolina, he’ll work with a strong offensive skill group led by Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. Another year removed from injury should allow McCaffrey to return to elite fantasy production, and the Panthers’ strong wide receiver corps is an ample arsenal for Mayfield to work with. Expect the new environment and regained health to drive Mayfield well above his current projections.
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