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College Football DFS: Bowl Game Projections & CFB Picks | Monday, 12/20/2021

Matt Gajewski



CFB DFS action features a showdown slate on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football bowl game projection article will provide a DFS breakdown and look at each team and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out Awesemo’s projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into this week’s iteration of the CFB DFS picks for today’s bowl game matchup.

CFB DFS Picks: College Football Bowl Projections

Myrtle Beach Bowl: Tulsa vs. Old Dominion

Tulsa (30.75 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 74.3 (32nd)

Pass Rate – 44.92% (81st)

Both Tulsa and Old Dominion limp into this game with a 6-6 record. However, Tulsa lost four of their six games by single digits and plays in the superior conference. Tulsa plays with an uptempo pace, but a run-heavy pace. Tulsa is quarterback by game manager Davis Brin ($13,800). Brin is not the most mobile quarterback, with 55 cumulative yards rushing on the year. However, Brin benefits from the uptempo Tulsa scheme. He averages 246.3 yards passing per game on 31.6 attempts. This includes two games above 300 yards and another three above 250. Brin is a middling, but safe cost-adjusted play on this slate.

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In the run game Tulsa typically utilizes a timeshare. However, a mid-season injury to Deneric Prince ($9,900) allowed Shamari Brooks ($12,000) to run away with the lead back job. On the year, Brooks averages 81.9 total yards per game on 16.8 touches. However, Prince recently returned from injury to play his change of pace role. Prince averages 60.6 yards himself on just 10.6 touches per game. He has been the more efficient back in a small sample and the extra rest time could render this the 50/50 timeshare from earlier in the season. While Brooks was sidelined, Anthony Watkins ($3,900) and Steven Anderson ($2,700) played larger roles in the backfield. Watkins in particular played well, averaging 49.5 yards per game on just 6.6 touches. Much of that occurred in blowout wins, but Watkins still likely plays a role here. Brooks is the safest play, but Prince and Watkins could see enough volume in a change of pace role to consider for tournaments. Both backs are surprisingly cheap here.

At receiver Tulsa often uses four-wide formations. This group was led by Josh Johnson ($15,000), who averaged 82 yards per game on 10.4 targets. With Sam Crawford missing the last three games of the year and subsequently transferring out of the program, Johnson’s volume jumped to 12.8 targets per game in Tulsa’s last four contests. He has now seen at least 13 targets in three straight games for Tulsa. With Crawford hitting the transfer portal and Keylon Stokes out for the season, the new WR2 in the offense looks like JuanCarlos Santana ($8,700). Santana averaged 50.8 yards receiving per game his year on 6.2 targets. Ezra Naylor ($10,800) has also seen an increased role as the WR3. He averaged 31.3 yards per game on 3.8 targets this year. However, his target volume jumped to 5.8 per game over Tulsa’s last three. Tulsa has now rotated their WR4 position, but Malachi Jones ($1,500) plays this role most often. He will rotate with tight end Ethan Hall ($1,800), who also does not play a major role in the passing game.

Old Dominion (21.25 Implied Total)

Plays/Game – 74.0 (34th)

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Pass Rate – 48.16% (61st)

Like Tulsa, Old Dominion enters this game with a 6-6 record. Old Dominion started 1-5 and then ran the table through their last five games to become bowl eligible. Old Dominion also runs an uptempo offense with a balanced pass rate. After splitting time with Darriel Mack ($13,200) to start the year, Hayden Wolff ($14,700) has emerged as Old Dominion’s clear starter. Wolff is not mobile whatsoever, with negative-85 yards rushing on the year. However, Wolff has proven himself as a passer, completing 62.1% of his passes for 7.8 yards per attempt. This includes a pair of games above 300 yards and two others above 280. Wolff has only started six games all season, so these number look even more impressive. Even with the lower implied team total, Wolff deserves consideration here.

At running back Old Dominion has benefitted from positive game script and an uptempo style of play recently. Blake Watson ($14,100) is the lead back for the Monarchs. He averages 108.5 yards per game on 21.3 touches. Watson has at least 19 touches in four straight games, making him a relatively safe play here. Negative game script is a concern, but Tulsa also allows 4.1 yards per rush attempt. Behind Watson, Elijah Davis ($5,400) functions as a change of pace for Old Dominion. Davis averages 49.8 yards per game on 9.3 touches himself. With the positive game script, Davis has touched the ball at least nine times in three of Old Dominion’s last four games. Watson is the superior option, but both could be viable in tournaments.

The wide receiver position for Old Dominion is tricky. Tight end Zack Kuntz ($9,300) technically leads the team with 108 targets. However, his 674 yards receiving fall well short of Ali Jennings‘ ($14,400) 988 yards. More impressive, Jennings averaged 82.3 yards receiving per game on just 7.4 targets per game. Behind them, Isaiah Page ($4,800) typically runs as the WR2. However, Page and WR3 Javon Harvey ($1,500) missed Old Dominion’s season finale. This allowed former starter and quarterback Stone Smartt ($8,100) to rejoin the starting lineup. Smartt only saw two targets, but 74% route rate marked his first involvement since Week 6. Without both, Page and Harvey, Jordan Bly ($4,200) also participated in 78% of Old Dominion’s drop backs in their season finale. He also saw a pair of targets but would require another absence from Page to earn routes. Bly plays primarily in the slot, where Page also plays. Smartt will compete more with Harvey and Jennings on the boundary. Lastly, Old Dominion occasionally uses two tight ends with Donta Anthony ($3,600). Anthony has 16 targets this year, but ten have come in the last four games. If Old Dominion misses some of their receivers, Anthony could play an elevated role here as well.

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Check out Awesemo college football betting experts Ben Rasa and Matt Gajewski breaking down
the entire 2021 College Football Bowl Game Schedule and giving their predictions, best betting picks and parlays.

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Check out our industry-leading DFS college football projections for today. Looking for more DFS CFB DraftKings picks and college football DFS advice? Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the CFB DFS ownership projections for FanDuel.

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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