Week 10 action continues with a Saturday slate featuring a full slate of games and DraftKings and FanDuel have great contests for this slate of games. This CFB DFS picks breakdown will look at each team and provide information about each skill position player of note within the game. Make sure to check out our projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let us dive into the first iteration of the college football DFS picks for Saturday’s matchup.
College Football Deep Dive: Week 10 CFB DFS Picks
Missouri vs. Georgia
Missouri (10.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 72.3 (47th)
Pass Rate – 55.34% (21st)
Missouri is a massive underdog to the undefeated Georgia Bulldogs. Missouri is 4-4 overall, but their wins came against Central Michigan, Southeast Missouri State, North Texas and Vanderbilt. They did lose to Kentucky and Boston College by single digits for what it is worth. Overall, Missouri is playing with a heavy pass rate and quick pace. While the pass rate likely remains high, Missouri’s play volume and efficiency project to plummet against Georgia’s elite defense.
At the quarterback position, Connor Bazelak ($5,100) is out. That means Brady Cook ($4,900) and Tyler Macon ($4,500) will split time at quarterback. Between the time share and Georgia’s elite defense, this is not a matchup to target.
Tyler Badie ($7,500) is normally an excellent option at the running back position. He averages 124.1 rushing and 38.1 yards receiving per game on 25.5 touches. Badie ranks second on Missouri in overall targets and third in yards receiving. However, he draws a brutally difficult matchup against a Georgia defense allowing 76.4 rushing and 151 yards passing per game. Badie certainly will not draw ownership, but he also has a low likelihood of putting up a good performance against this suffocating defense.
After splitting snaps at receiver for most of the year, Missouri narrowed their distribution of targets. However, this may be due to injury after Chance Luper ($3,600) and Mookie Cooper ($3,300) missed Missouri’s most recent game. Neither of their statuses have been updated. Either way, Keke Chism ($4,100) is the WR1 with Tauskie Dove ($3,900) functioning as the WR2. Barrett Banister ($3,300) emerged as the WR3 due to injuries, but he like returns to his rotational role if either Luper or Cooper return. Dove averages 48.1 yards on 5.9 target this year, while Dove checks in with 46.3 yards on 5.5 targets. Neither are strong targets against an elite Georgia secondary.
Georgia (48.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 62.6 (127th)
Pass Rate – 38.12% (119th)
The undefeated Georgia Bulldogs already hold wins over Clemson, Arkansas, Auburn and Kentucky. As near 40-point favorites, they should roll Missouri here. As a team Georgia is playing very slow and run-heavy football as they enjoy positive game script. Their pass rate will drastically increase under Todd Monken in competitive games, but that does not project to be the case here.
J.T. Daniels ($7,600) was healthy enough to play last week, but Stetson Bennett ($7,800) drew the start. Bennett has been excellent in Daniels’ place this year. Bennett is very mobile compared to Daniels, with 183 yards rushing compared to negative-15 for Daniels. Bennett only averages 165.6 yards passing per game, but he has been incredibly efficient. Bennett currently completes 66.3% of his passes for 12 yards per attempt. Daniels boasts a 76.1% completion percentage and 8.1 yards per attempt, but Bennett has been too good to pull off the field. Unfortunately, the spread indicates that Georgia probably does not hit a passing ceiling here. These guys have upside due to their immense total, but it looks unlikely that Missouri will keep this close enough to achieve it.
Kendall Milton ($3,600) missed last week’s game with a knee injury and looks doubtful for this contest. While Kenny McIntosh ($3,900) was loosely involved, most of the running back work fell on Zamir White ($7,100) and James Cook ($5,900). White saw 15 touches to Cook’s 12. Both have been fairly efficient this year but struggled with volume. That could be the case again here, but Missouri is one of the country’s worst run defenses, allowing over 282 yards rushing per game. With Milton out of the picture, White and Cook just might receive enough volume to put up a ceiling performance. They are viable in tournaments.
Georgia has devolved into a full blown timeshare at every position with their improving healthy. Brock Bowers ($6,600) only ran a route on 56% of dropbacks with John Fitzpatrick ($3,000) and Darnell Washington ($3,900) stealing snaps. Only Adonai Mitchell ($3,400) played a full complement of snaps at receiver. Ladd McConkey ($4,700) was on the field for 61% of routes, but he split time with Jermaine Burton ($5,300), Kearis Jackson ($4,400), Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($3,200) and a few others. While the implied team total brings upside, predicting which Georgia pass catcher explodes is a different story. Without late injury news, this is still a situation to avoid.
Ohio State vs. Nebraska
Ohio State (38.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 67.4 (94th)
Pass Rate – 50.46% (44th)
Getting into the more difficult part of their schedule, Ohio State seemingly controls their own destiny with a 7-1 record. Their only loss came by seven points to Oregon. They played their first ranked opponent since then in Penn State, picking up a 33-24 win. On the year, Ohio State is slightly below average in terms of play volume, but above average in pass rate. They are so efficient that they do not require elevated play volume to score points.
One of the better quarterbacks in the country, C.J. Stroud ($8,600) has shown immense growth this year. Stroud is not very mobile, with just 18 cumulative yards this year. However, he has been excellent as a passer, averaging 324.3 yards per game on 31.3 attempts. He has also been very efficient, completing 67.1% of his passes for 10.4 yards per attempt. He is slightly discounted here, making this a strong play even against a decent Nebraska defense. Ohio State still has one of the largest implied team totals on the board.
Master Teague ($3,000) is expected to return to Ohio State soon after missing the last two games due to injury. However, this does not seem to matter with TreVeyon Henderson ($7,900) fully taking over the backfield. Last week Henderson handled an absurd 30 touches in a close game with Penn State while Miyan Williams ($4,400) only saw four. Henderson averages 104.8 yards rushing per game and another 21.9 through the air. All of this comes on just 14.5 touches per game. If Henderson continues to receive this massive workload, he will be an elite play even at $7,900. The spread is within reason here, suggesting another heavy workload for Henderson.
Ohio State’s offense relies on Garrett Wilson ($7,100), Chris Olave ($6,900) and Jaxson Smith-Njigba ($5,800) in the pass game. Wilson is the team’s leader in every major receiving category, averaging 85.9 yards on 8.3 targets per game. Smith-Njigba has challenged Olave recently. He averages 81 yards receiving this year to Olave’s 70.3. Olave still has a seven target average in Ohio State’s last four games, compared to 6.3 for Smith-Njigba. However, the target distribution is closer than these priced indicate. Jeremy Ruckert ($3,800) averages four targets per game in Ohio State’s last four games. He is touchdown reliant, but still an option here. All four of these players are solid plays against Nebraska.
Nebraska (24.25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 69.5 (76th)
Pass Rate – 44.06% (86th)
Now 3-6 and 1-5 in Big Ten play, Nebraska has only defeated Fordham, Buffalo and Northwestern. Interestingly, they have now lost to Illinois, Oklahoma, Michigan State, Michigan, Minnesota and Purdue all by single digits. Overall, Nebraska is slightly below average in play volume and pass rate. Some of this comes from utilizing a dual threat, and some comes from pure inefficiency.
Adrian Martinez ($7,000) already has 438 yards rushing this year. As a passer, he also averages 251.3 yards per game on just 26.8 attempts. From an efficiency perspective, Martinez’s 62.5% completion percentage and 9.5 yards per attempt are solid. The problem is his propensity for turnovers. The range of outcomes has also been narrow for Martinez. He is above 200 yards in every game this year, but he has yet to eclipse 300. He also has not rushed for more than 59 yards in any of his last six games after besting 100 in two of his first three. He is a middling option, propped up by game environment.
Nebraska’s backfield has changed multiple times this year with an injury to Gabe Ervin and the benching of Markese Stepp ($3,400). Of late, Rahmir Johnson ($5,400) has acted as the lead back with Jaquez Yant ($3,600) providing a change of pace. Last week, Johnson handled 14 touches to Yant’s six. Yant has yet to see a target this year, making Johnson the preferred play if targeted a Nebraska running back. This does not look like the wisest decision with Martinez stealing so much of the work on the ground.
Samori Toure ($4,400) is the only consistent receiver for Nebraska, averaging 62.9 yards on 5.8 targets per game. Behind him, Nebraska whimsically rotates Omar Manning ($3,700), Zavier Betts ($3,200), Levi Falck ($3,300) and Oliver Martin ($3,400). Even tight ends Austin Allen ($4,300) and Travis Vokolek ($3,000) are rotating. Toure is the only consistent option here and maybe Betts could be used in GPPs after his route rate jumped to 76% last week. Overall, this is a poor situation to target.
Wake Forest vs. North Carolina
Wake Forest (36.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 76.0 (21st)
Pass Rate – 45.94% (73rd)
One of the lone undefeated teams in the country, Wake Forest opened as an underdog to North Carolina. Speaking volumes about their strength of schedule, Wake Forest barely held off Louisville, Syracuse and Army within the last month. One of the most game script sensitive teams in college football, Wake Forest has drastically increased their pass rate since the start of conference play. With a brutal defense on the other side, they simply have not been able to find comfortable positive game script. They also play with incredible tempo, making this an awesome offense to stack.
Sam Hartman ($10,000) has been forced into more volume lately because of Wake Forest’s poor defense. Hartman averages 309.8 yards passing per game on just 31.3 attempts. He is also very efficient with 208 cumulative yards rushing on the ground. With that said, he is cost prohibitive on this slate and requires a 300-yard bones to even reach value. Hartman has shown solid efficiency, completing 65.2% of his passes for 9.9 yards per attempt. This has resulted in 300+ yards in each of his last for games and 400+ in each of the last two (Army & Duke). While incredibly efficient, price renders Hartman a middling play overall.
Wake Forest continues to employ a running back by committee, featuring Christian Beal-Smith ($5,500), Christian Turner ($4,000) and Justice Ellison ($4,000). Beal Smith is the top back here and they have shown a willingness to give him an elevated workload in close games. He has a 17-carries game in their third most recent game. Still, he only averages 12.9 touches per game in this time share, racking up 65.9 yards per game. Turner is right behind him, averaging 9.3 touches per game and 40.2 yards per game. Ellison checks in and 9.9 touches per game, but he has not seen more than six in any of his last three games. North Carolina does allow 176.2 yards per game, making this a spot to examine for GPPs.
On the outside, Wake Forest has two pure alpha receivers in Jaquarii Roberson ($8,000) and A.T. Perry ($7,200). Roberson averages 92.1 yards receiving per game on eight targets. This volume has increased to 9.8 targets per game in Wake Forest’s last three. The same can be said for Perry, who averages 89.9 yards per game on 6.5 targets. He has seen eight targets per game over Wake Forest’s last four games. Taylor Morin ($3,800) still has a grip on the WR3 job, but he is increasingly rotating with Donald Stewart ($3,300) and Ke’Shawn Williams ($4,200). Morin participated in 62% of the routes to 40% for Stewart and 38% for Williams. Williams out-targeted Moring 7-4 over Wake Forest’s last two games. These three cheaper receivers are dart throws, while Roberson and Perry are much stronger options.
North Carolina (39 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 73.6 (34th)
Pass Rate – 46.69% (69th)
North Carolina enters this game with a 4-4 record overall. Interestingly, they have wins over Georgia State, Virginia, Duke and Miami. However, they have now lost to Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Florida State and Notre Dame. Like Wake Forest, North Carolina also plays with a quick tempo, elevated pass rate and poor defense. This looks like one of the premier shootouts on the Week 10 slate.
Another elite quarterback in a potential shootout, Sam Howell ($9,800) has been North Carolina’s entire offense this year. He has elite mobility, with 595 yards rushing to date. He also averages 274 yards passing on 30.8 attempts, despite only have one legitimate receiving weapon. This has caused his completion percentage to drop to 63.2% and his yards per attempt to fall to 9.1. Still, Howell has plenty of upside with five 300-yard games this year and four 100-yard rushing games. He is a straight up better play than Hartman in a vacuum and the best expensive option on the slate.
At running back Tennessee transfer Ty Chandler ($6,600) will operate as the 1A, with D.J. Jones ($3,400) playing as the 1B. Chandler has a solid workload averaging 16.3 touches per game. Fairly efficient as well, he averages 83.9 rushing and 19.8 yards receiving per game. Jones checks in with 39.1 total yards himself on 9.3 touches per game. Wake Forest allows over 210 yards rushing per game, making both backs interesting plays in GPPs. Chandler could even deserve an outside look in cash based on his role and matchup.
North Carolina only has one legitimate receiving option in Josh Downs ($8,700) and his 42% target share. Downs averages 122.4 yards per game on 12.1 targets. He has not seen fewer than 13 targets in any of North Carolina’s last three games. Frustrated by his own inefficiency, Emery Simmons transferred, solidifying snaps for Antoine Green ($4,300). Green popped up for seven targets in North Carolina’s most recent game, but he averages just 3.1 targets per game this year. Justin Olson ($3,000) also saw his route rate increase to 100% of the snaps last week. He is the stone minimum and a potential target here. All three of these receivers are strong options in the best game environment on the entire slate.
Liberty vs. Ole Miss
Liberty (29.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 70.4 (64th)
Pass Rate – 43.52% (88th)
Liberty enters this game with a 7-2 record on the year. Their only two losses game against Syracuse and Louisiana-Monroe. However, they have solid wins over Troy, Old Dominion, UAB, Middle Tennessee State and North Texas. Both of their losses came by three points. Liberty is right around the league average in terms of pace, but they remain run-heavy under their dual-threat quarterback. With Ole Miss on the other side, Liberty’s play volume could spike closer to their 75.7 plays per game mark from 2020.
Veteran quarterback Malik Willis ($9,300) is one of the best pure dual threats in the country. Willis already has 684 yards rushing this year, while averaging 220.9 yards passing on 23.3 attempts per game. From an efficiency perspective, Willis is completing 66.7% of his passes for 9.5 yards per attempt. He only has one 300-yard passing game this year, which came against UMass. However, he has six more above 200 yards and a pair of 100-yard rushing games. This will be a step up in competition, but Ole Miss has not played solid defense. Willis’ usage in both phases of the game make him a solid play, despite his elevated price. He is in line with the other expensive quarterbacks.
On top of Willis’ elite rushing usage, Liberty also runs a committee in the backfield. Joshua Mack ($4,000) typically leads this group, but he missed Liberty’s most recent game. His status has not been updated, but he averages 10.5 touches per game when healthy. Behind him, T.J. Green ($4,700) and Shedro Louis ($4,800) average 7.3 and 7.6 touches per game themselves. While Mack’s injury could elevate their volume, this backfield is still tough to predict with the time share. Ole Miss does allow 194.3 yards rushing per game, but predicting who will take advantage on Liberty is a different story.
Liberty is a mess at receiver. Kevin Shaa ($4,200) and Treon Sibley ($3,000) started their most recent game, with Liberty starting two tight ends in Trevor Hobbs ($3,000) and Johnny Huntley ($3,500). While Shaa and Sibley started, C.J. Daniels ($5,300), Demario Douglas ($6,000) and Noah Firth ($3,800) all ran more routes. With D.J. Stubbs ($4,000) also involved, this offense is a complete disaster on a weekly basis. Daniels, Douglas and Firth are the most consistent options, but none average more than five targets per game over Liberty’s last four contest. Firth looks like the best price adjusted option overall, but this situation is dicey in a lower volume passing attack.
Ole Miss (38.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 81.9 (3rd)
Pass Rate – 41.36% (107th)
Ole Miss currently has a 6-2 record with losses to Alabama and Auburn. They also have wins over Louisville, Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU entering this game. Ole Miss takes a similar approach to Liberty in terms of run rate. However, they run the third fastest offense in the country, pacing up opponents and creating elite shootout environments behind a poor defense.
Matt Corral ($9,600) has been banged up repeatedly in Ole Miss’ recent games. He left last week’s contest with an ankle injury and failed to practice early in the week. While Corral has played through injury already this year, his status still needs to be monitored. When healthy, Corral has proven to be one of the top quarterbacks in the country. He already has 519 yards rushing and averages 275.9 yards as a passer on 31.4 attempts per game. As a passer, he completes 66.6% of his passes for 9 yards per attempt. Corral also has a clear ceiling with five games above 280 yards passing. He also has another five above 45 yards rushing. Liberty has played solid defense overall, but they are a lower level of competition, and this game has a 68.5-point total. Corral still has enough upside to target in GPPs here.
Another backfield by committee, Henry Parrish ($4,900) and Snoop Conner ($5,800) have worked ahead of Jerrion Ealy ($3,800) of late. Ealy averages 11 touches per game, but he saw his touches drop to just five in Ole Miss’ most recent game. Parrish and Conner handled 13 and 10 touches, respectively. Conner has been efficient with 61.4 yards per game on 10.8 touches, but the same can be said for Parrish. Parrish is the preferred pass catcher of the group and averages 78.4 yards per game on 13.4 touches himself. Parris would be the preferred play if targeting an Ole Miss back, but the timeshare makes this a tough situation to trust.
Ole Miss is a disaster at receiver. Jonathan Mingo ($7,000) suffered a serious foot injury earlier this season and is out indefinitely. Dontario Drummond ($6,500) is the team’s leading receiver, but he was forced from last week’s game with an injury. He is questionable. Braylon Sanders ($4,200) has now missed two straight games. He suited up for warmups last week but had trouble cutting. He is questionable here as well. This left transfer Jahcour Pearson ($4,900) to lead the team with nine targets last week. He averages 4.8 per game over Ole Miss’ last four. On top of the receiver injuries, Chase Rogers ($3,200) has missed three straight games at tight end. However, Casey Kelly ($4,300) has been solid in his place and tied Pearson for a team-leading nine targets last week. Behind Pearson and Kelly, Jadon Jackson ($3,000), Dannis Jackson ($3,200) and John Rhys Plumlee ($3,200) all participated in 40%-56% of the team’s routes. Plumlee is the best option of this group in the event that Drummond and Sanders miss this game. Ole Miss has fallen on tough times, but these receivers are still playable behind Ole Miss’ 38-point implied team total.
SMU vs. Memphis
SMU (38.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 75.6 (27th)
Pass Rate – 52.36% (32nd)
After a stellar 7-0 start to the year, SMU dropped their first game to Houston last week off a kick return touchdown walk off. Their only notable win came against a TCU team that just fired their coach. SMU is one of the fastest and pass heaviest offenses in the country, making them awesome for DFS.
Oklahoma transfer Tanner Mordecai ($9,000) will quarterback SMU’s explosive offense against a weaker Memphis defense. Mordecai is fairly mobile, with 176 yards rushing this year. More importantly, he is elite as a passer, averaging 327.9 yards passing per game on 37.5 attempts. He also completes 70.3% of his passes for 8.8 yards per attempt. This incredible volume gives Mordecai a strong ceiling/floor combination. Mordecai has eclipsed 300 yards passing in all but one game this year. Memphis plays slightly below average pass defense, opening the door for another strong Mordecai performance. With this game also bringing a 71-point total, Mordecai is an excellent expensive option at quarterback.
Already attempting to return from injury, Ulysses Bentley ($3,800) suffered an ankle injury last week. Bentley has not received more than five touches in any of SMU’s last five games. The Mustangs have also used him as a decoy multiple times this year, making him exceedingly risky. In his place, Tre Siggers ($6,100) has handled a feature back workload. Siggers saw 18 touches last week and has operate as the clear lead back without Bentley. He averages 71.6 yards per game on 15.9 touches this year. If Bentley misses, Tyler Lavine ($3,000) should be the change of pace back. Memphis allows 165.7 yards rushing per game, putting Siggers squarely in play.
SMU’s explosive passing game is condensed, giving it added viability in DFS. Danny Gray ($6,200) averages 85.3 yards per game on 7.9 targets this year. Rashee Rice ($5,600) is not far behind with 59.5 yards receiving per game on 6.4 targets. Reggie Roberson ($5,700) has also been increasingly involved after starting the year slow behind his second season-ending injury. Roberson now averages 56.3 yards per game on 5.6 targets. Former Oklahoma tight end Grant Calcaterra ($4,000) is also a full time player in this offense with 43.9 yards per game on 5.9 targets. Isolating SMU’s last three game, Rice has averaged 9.3 targets per game to Rice’s 8.0. Roberson has the shakiest routes, but he still eclipsed 62% in each of SMU’s last three games. Ultimately, any of these three are in play.
Memphis (32.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 71.3 (54th)
Pass Rate – 52.51% (30th)
Now 4-4 on the year, Memphis is 1-3 inside the AAC. They started the year 3-0, including a win over Mississippi State. However, they have now lost to UTSA, Temple, Tulsa and UCF within their last five games. Three of those four losses came by single digits. Memphis is only slightly slower than SMU and slightly pass heavier. This is another elite shootout spot on the Week 10 slate.
Memphis has been dealing with an injury to their starting quarterback Seth Henigan ($8,200). Henigan is dealing with a hand injury and reportedly has not been able to complete practice. He was labeled a game time decision ahead of this week’s contest. If active, then looks like a solid option. Henigan is completing 60.8% of his passes for 9.5 yards per attempt. He already has displayed clear upside as well with four games above 300 yards. If he cannot go, LSU transfer Peter Parrish ($7,900) will get the start. Parrish played somewhat well in his first start. He threw the ball 48 times, but only managed 215 yards. With that said, he is an excellent dual threat and rushed 22 times for 60 yards rushing. He is certainly a downgrade, but he could still be used in GPPs.
Without Henigan last week, Memphis’ run game also imploded. Lead back Brandon Thomas ($6,200) saw eight touches, but no other back handled more than five. Thomas also splits the backfield to some degree. Thomas played 34 snaps, but Marquavius Weaver ($3,300), Asa Martin ($3,000) and Kylan Watkins ($3,000) played 18, 16 and 15 snaps, respectively. Rodrigues Clark ($3,800) also missed Memphis most recent game and could return here. While Thomas has handled feature back work on occasion, this backfield could devolve into a timeshare at any point in time. Thomas is a risky GPP play based on game environment.
The quarterback change completely derailed Memphis offense. However, Calvin Austin ($8,400) still operated as the team’s clear alpha receiver with 11 targets. Austin now averages 112.1 yards per game on 10.8 targets. Tight end Sean Dykes ($4,300) is still the second leading receiver with 56.5 yards receiving per game on 4.5 targets. Of late, Javon Ivory ($4,400) has seen a larger workload than Dykes. He averages 4.8 targets per game over Memphis’ last three games, compared to 3.3 for Dykes. On the year, he averages 41.8 yards per game. With that said, Eddie Lewis ($3,600) has also played an expanded role for Memphis in recent weeks. He has been at or above 70% of the routes in four straight. Gabriel Rogers ($3,000) also returned from injury to run a route on 38% of dropbacks. Despite being labeled as a running back, he played all of his offensive snaps in the slot. This reduced Ivory to a 53% route rate. Ivory plays primarily in the slot, so his role reduction makes sense. Austin and Lewis are the best plays here.
Navy vs. Notre Dame
Navy (10.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 72.8 (40th)
Pass Rate – 16.67% (128th)
Despite a few close losses Navy enters this game with a 2-6 record. Their only wins came against UCF and Tulsa, while they played Houston, SMU and Cincinnati to single digits. Navy runs the triple option, which basically means the team is unplayable in DFS.
Because of the triple option offense, Navy’s quarterback Tai Lavatai ($5,800) should be treated like a mid-priced running back on a bad team. Navy does use the quarterback as the engine of their rushing attack, but Lavatai still only has 242 yards rushing this year. He would need a massive outlier performance to outscore the other quarterbacks on this slate. He has yet to rush for more than 64 yards in a game this year.
Most of Navy’s run volume comes from the quarterback position, but Isaac Ruoss ($4,000) is the team’s starting fullback. He averages 54.6 yards rushing per game on 14.1 touches. James Harris ($3,400) is also used as a change of pace fullback. He averages 35.8 yards on 9.4 touches himself. From there, Carlinos Acie ($3,500) and Chance Warren ($3,700) are the slot backs. Acie averages 5.3 touches per game to Warren’s 6.0. However, Navy has made a concerted effort to involve Warren more in recent weeks. In their most recent game, he handled ten carries and two targets. He ranks second on the team in targets overall. Despite all of that, he is still a low-upside play along with all of the other Navy backs on this slate.
Do no play Navy receivers. Just for fun, Mychal Cooper ($3,300) is the team’s leader with 160 yards receiving on 15 targets.
Notre Dame (33.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 73.4 (35th)
Pass Rate – 50.09% (46th)
Now 7-1, Notre Dame’s lone blemish came against Cincinnati. Recently they have also defeated North Carolina, USC, Virginia Tech, Wisconsin and Purdue. Notre Dame prefers to play pass heavy and up-tempo, which is the exact opposite of Navy. Still, they are simply a much better team and should benefit from elevated efficiency on offense.
Notre Dame continues to situationally employ two quarterbacks. Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan ($7,200) is the pure pocket passer. He has negative-60 yards rushing this year and has seen his passing yardage drop substantially since the beginning of the year. He has not thrown for more than 225 yards passing since Week 2. The second quarterback, freshman Tyler Buchner ($6,900) is known for his athleticism with 194 cumulative yards on the ground this year. He does not receive enough work in the pass game to play himself, but he will steal enough snaps to render both players pure dart throws at very best.
Kyren Williams ($7,700) played extremely well against Navy, handling another 24 touches after seeing 31 in the week prior. Williams now averages 87.3 rushing and 32.1 yards receiving per game on 21.5 touches. Notre Dame will typically use a change of pace back and that has been Chris Tyree ($3,000) for most of the year. After missing a game due to injury, Tyree returned to play limited snaps last week. Unfortunately, he did not handle a touch, while Logan Diggs ($4,100) popped up for 14 carries. Either way, Williams is the preferred option from this backfield and could make some sense as a three-touchdown favorite.
Michael Mayer ($5,800) continues to operate as Notre Dame’s top pass catcher. He averages 66.4 yards per game on 8.3 targets. Behind him, Avery Davis ($6,100) has emerged as the clear WR1 here. He averages 46 yards per game on five targets. While Kevin Austin ($5,400) averages 49 yards per game on 6.3 targets, Davis has now out-targeted Austin in three of Notre Dame’s last four game. Braden Lenzy ($3,700) will continue to operate as a distant fourth option in this offense. Mayer is the top price adjusted play here.
Illinois vs. Minnesota
Illinois (14.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 69.7 (72nd)
Pass Rate – 43.38% (89th)
Perhaps the worst team in the Big Ten West, Illinois enters this game with a 3-6 record. Somehow they have wins over Nebraska, Charlotte and Penn State, but lost two UTSA, Virginia, Maryland, Purdue, Wisconsin and most recently Rutgers. Illinois generally prefers to play slower, run heavy football. However, they have lost most of their games, artificially elevating their pass rate due to negative game script.
Brandon Peters ($4,800) made a miraculous recovery after suffering what looked like a serious injury. Peters is not mobile at all with negative-33 yards on the ground this year. He has also been horrific as a passer. He is completing just 53.5% of his passes for 5.9 yards per attempt. For what it is worth, he is coming off a season-high 190 yards passing against Rutgers, but that speaks to his low ceiling overall. He is not a strong play even at his price.
After nine games of nonsense, Illinois finally game Chase Brown ($5,600) a full workload. Brown has been one of the most efficient running backs in the country going on two years now. Illinois frustratingly used him in a timeshare with Josh McCray ($3,300) and other backs for most of the season, but Brown out-touched McCray 20-4 last week Brown now has at least 20 touches in three of Illinois’ last four games. He also averages 101 rushing and 16.7 yards receiving per game on 17.7 touches. Again, the volume has increased, making Brown a risky GPP play as two-touchdown underdogs against a stout Minnesota run defense.
Illinois is a low-volume, low-efficiency offense in a tough matchup. For those willing to take the risk with their 14.75-point implied team total, Isaiah Washington ($4,100) is the top receiver. He averages 41.3 yards per game on 6.9 targets. Behind him, Casey Washington ($3,400) and Donny Navarro ($3,200) are also full time receiver. Daniel Barker ($4,200) splits time with Luke Ford ($3,000) at tight end. None of them even average 20 yards receiving per game.
Minnesota (29.25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 66.5 (101st)
Pass Rate – 28.95% (127th)
Somehow 6-2 on the year, Minnesota’s only two losses have come against Ohio State and Bowling Green. They have also knocked off some decent competition in the Big Ten, including Purdue, Nebraska, Maryland and Northwestern. Minnesota runs one of the slowest and run heaviest offenses in football. Their implied total props them up here.
Speaking of horrific passers, Tanner Morgan ($5,400) has disappointed throughout the 2021 campaign. He is not mobile, with just 47 cumulative yards on the ground this year. He also cannot overcome Minnesota’s low-volume passing attack. Morgan averages just 147.1 yards passing per game on 18 attempts. He has been somewhat efficient, completing 60.8% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt. However, he needs negative game script to achieve a ceiling, which looks unlikely against Illinois.
Minnesota has now lost Mohamed Ibrahim, Trey Potts, and Bryce Williams. Without any other options, they deployed freshman Mar’Keise Irving ($6,300) in a timeshare with Ky Thomas ($5,000). Irving handled 20 touches to Thomas’ 22 last week. Thomas finished with 106 yards rushing to Irving’s 110. Both backs operate early in the game too, pointing to a direct 50/50 time share. Illinois does allow 159.8 yards rushing per game and Minnesota runs at one of the highest rates in the country. This is a potential spot to target.
Minnesota is also a low-volume, low-efficiency passing attack. Chris Autman-Bell ($4,900) is the top receiver here, averaging 46 yards per game on 5.2 targets. Daniel Jackson ($3,400) and Mike Brown-Stephens ($4,100) are the two secondary options, averaging four and 3.8 targets per game over Minnesota’s last four contests. None of these players are more than GPP considerations in Minnesota’s run centric offense.
Tulsa vs. Cincinnati
Tulsa (15.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 73.0 (36th)
Pass Rate – 47.36% (66th)
Tulsa enters Week 10 with a 3-5 record that includes losses to Oklahoma State, Ohio State, Houston and Navy. Their only wins came against Arkansas State, Memphis and USF. All of which came by single digits. Tulsa plays with an above average pace and a neutral pass rate. Even so, Cincinnati depresses opposing play volume and plays elite defense.
Davis Brin ($5,500) is the game manager extraordinaire of Tulsa’s offense. He only has seven yards rushing this year, while averaging a fairly efficient 258.9 yards passing on 32.3 attempts per game. Brin completes 57.8% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt, again displaying moderate efficiency. His 1:1 touchdown/interception ratio also creates issues against an opportunistic Cincinnati defense. This tough matchup and his game manager role make him a tough player to consider here.
Tulsa will use an even split at running back between Shamari Brooks ($5,300) and Deneric Prince ($4,500). Brooks averages 73.6 rushing and 6.8 yards receiving on 16 touches per game. Prince was injured for a stretch of time earlier this year, but he averages 67.5 rushing and 11.2 yards receiving per game on 13.3 touches. This is an extremely tough matchup, making both Tulsa backs tough sells behind their miniscule implied team total.
Keylon Stokes ($5,300) has now missed two straight games for Tulsa but will try to make his return against Cincinnati here. In his place, Josh Johnson ($5,400) has operated as the top receiver. He averages 74.9 yards per game on 9.5 targets. JuanCarlos Santana ($3,800) has also been a consistent option, averaging 55 yards per game on 5.9 targets. While Santana has the edge in targets on the year, Sam Crawford ($3,900) has played a larger offensive role of late. He has a 90% route rate in three straight weeks, while Santana dropped to 79% in Tulsa’s most recent game. he also averages 5.8 targets per game, compared to 4.8 for Santana in Tulsa’s last four. If Stokes misses this game, Ezra Naylor ($3,600) will become a full time player. He only saw two targets last week, but he participated in 82% of the routes.
Cincinnati (38.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 63.6 (122nd)
Pass Rate – 48.31% (61st)
Cincinnati enters this game with an undefeated record. Their only notable wins came against Indiana and Navy. Since then, they have beaten up on weak opponents and barely outlasted Navy. Cincinnati plays balanced football in terms of their pass rate, but they also employ one of the slowest offenses in college football.
Another game manager, Desmond Ridder ($8,700) has shown limited upside in 2021. He is a strong dual threat, but he only has 171 yards rushing this year. Ridder averages 230.4 yards passing per game on 28 attempts, providing solid efficiency to the offense. He currently completes 63.6% of his passes for 8.2 yards per attempt. Ridder’s main issue is the offense’s overall play volume. Cincinnati has played with positive game script throughout the year and the Bearcats simply refuse to press their advantages. Ridder has yet to pass for 300 yards this year and he has not rushed for more than 47 yards in any game this year. Perhaps getting left out of the top four will push Luke Fickell’s normally hesitant squad here.
Jerome Ford ($8,300) leads Cincinnati’s rushing attack, but he suffers from some of the same volume concerns as Ridder. Ford has been extremely efficient, averaging 106.5 rushing and 12.8 yards receiving per game on 18.5 touches. Ford certainly possesses touch upside, but it requires Cincinnati to keep games close. Like Ridder above, perhaps Cincinnati gives Ford extra work after an eye opening ranking in the College Football playoff. He is a middling to above average price adjusted play against a Tulsa defense allowing 173 yards rushing per game.
In the passing game, these receivers suffer from the same issues as Ridder. Alec Pierce ($6,300) is the leader, but he is too expensive for a player averaging 59.8 yards receiving on 5.6 targets per game. Michael Young ($3,600) is more affordable, but he only averages 25.3 yards per game on 3.8 targets. Behind them, Tyler Scott ($4,400), Tre Tucker ($3,500), Josh Whyle ($4,900) and Leonard Taylor ($3,100) all participate in roughly 40%-60% of the routes, making them dicey plays. Taylor is the cheapest and has the most targets this year, making him the best play of this group. They still are not good plays overall.
Michigan State vs. Purdue
Michigan State (27.25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 66.0 (106th)
Pass Rate – 44.81% (80th)
Pulling off the best comeback win in 2021, Michigan State has a perfect 8-0 record that now includes wins over Miami, Nebraska and Michigan. So far this season, Michigan State has been playing slower, run heavier football. This is interesting after they ran 70.9 plays per game and passed the ball 52% of the time last year. In competitive games. Michigan State’s offense looks attractive, but they are also comfortable halting the pace when playing from ahead.
Payton Thorne ($6,400) continues to play excellent football for Michigan State. He has decent mobility, with 96 cumulative yards rushing this year. He has also been efficient on his passing volume, throwing for 235.9 yards per game on 26.8 attempts. Thorne currently completes 61.5% of his passes for 8.9 yards per attempt. He has two games above 300 yards passing, but he also has four games below 200 yards when Michigan State takes a run first approach. This makes Thorne extremely volatile, but he is viable in tournament builds.
Wake Forest transfer Kenneth Walker ($8,600) continues to make a case to be the country’s top running back. Walker averages an absurd 149 yards rushing and 4.5 yards receiving on 22.9 touches per game. He has not seen fewer than 24 touches in any of Michigan State’s last four games. He also saw a season high three targets against Michigan, displaying an ability to work in the pass game. Prior to that Michigan State constantly played from ahead and seldom needed Walker as a pass catcher. Purdue plays middling run defense, allowing 141.6 yards per game. However, Walker has taken advantage of more difficult matchups, putting him squarely in play among the expensive running backs.
Michigan State operates through two alphas in the pass game in Jalen Nailor ($5,900) and Jayden Reed ($6,400). Nailor averages 73 yards per game on 7.6 targets, while Reed checks in with 80.3 yards on 6.4 targets. Both are perfectly viable in a close projected game against Purdue. Nailor did appear to suffer an injury against Michigan, so his status should be monitored heading into this match against Purdue. Tre Mosley ($3,400) typically operates as the WR3. While he failed to record a catch against Michigan, he still averages 40.1 yards on 3.4 targets per game this year. Connor Heyward ($3,000) plays tight end and averages 2.8 targets per game himself. If Nailor misses this game, Montorie Foster ($3,000) would be in line for extra work. He saw three targets in place of Nailor last week and looks like the next man up.
Purdue (24.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 78.1 (13th)
Pass Rate – 59.68% (8th)
Purdue has a 5-3 record. Their losses came against Notre Dame, Minnesota and Wisconsin, while they defeated Oregon State, Illinois, Iowa and Nebraska. Only the Iowa victory came by double digits. The black sheep of the Big Ten West, Purdue is extremely pass heavy and up-tempo. However, sometimes they are not the most efficient offense, which can hurt their DFS viability.
Making a quarterback switch already this year, Purdue will continue to trot out a pure pocket passer in Aidan O’Connell ($5,600). O’Connell has negative-92 cumulative yards rushing on the year, making him dependent on hitting a 300-yard bonus to overcome this deficit. O’Connell has been fairly efficient, completing 71% of his passes for 7.1 yards per attempt. Purdue’s offensive volume helps O’Connell, but he draws a tough matchup against Michigan State here. He also has not eclipsed 233 yards in back to back weeks after reaching at least 370 in back to back games against Minnesota and Iowa earlier this year. Michigan State allows over 300 yards passing per game, but they are holding opponents to just 6.6 yards per pass attempt.
Zander Horvath ($3,900) made his surprising return to Purdue last week and split time with King Doerue ($4,200). Doerue still out-touched Horvath 18-13, but this looks like a timeshare moving forward. Purdue already passes at an elevated rate, leaving little room for a timeshare. With Michigan State also playing solid defense, this is a tough spot to target the Purdue backs.
David Bell ($7,400) remains one of the best receivers in the country, averaging 111.1 yards per game on 10.7 targets. He has not seen fewer than ten targets in any of Purdue’s last four games. Michigan State allows over 320 yards passing per game, putting Bell squarely in play. Behind him, tight end Payne Durham ($4,700) is the second leading receiver, averaging 50.9 yards per game on 6.7 targets. Durham is not expected to play here, potentially opening opportunities for Paul Piferi. Milton Wright ($4,600) has also seen elevated opportunities of late. He averages 39.4 yards per game on 5.6 targets, but his route rate comes in well above Jackson Anthrop ($4,300), who increasingly splits time with T.J. Sheffield ($3,600) and Broc Thompson ($3,400). All three are between 35% and 52% of the team’s routes. Bell and Wright are the only strong options here.
Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia
Oklahoma State (25.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 75.1 (29th)
Pass Rate – 37.26% (122nd)
Oklahoma State has one loss on the year against Iowa State. Aside from that, they have wins over Tulsa, Boise State, Kansas State, Baylor and Texas. For a run-heavy team under a dual-threat quarterback, Oklahoma State employs considerable pace.
Spencer Sanders ($7,100) will continue to quarterback Oklahoma State. He provides solid mobility, with his 298 cumulative yards rushing this year. As a passer, he only averages 191.6 yards per game on 24.4 attempts as Oklahoma State embraces the running game. His efficiency has also dropped this year, with Sanders completing 59.6% of his passes for 7.8 yards per pass attempt. Sanders seldom reaches a ceiling with just one game above 300 yards this year, coming against Kansas State. Outside of that, he only has one other game above 200 yards passing. If Sanders reaches a ceiling, his legs likely have something to do with it, making him a bit expensive on this particular slate.
One of the biggest pricing errors this weekend, Jaylen Warren‘s ($6,400) price fell sharply after his nine-carry game against Kansas. Oklahoma State went up 38-0 against Kansas at half time, letting the Cowboys rest Warren for the remainder of the game. Prior to that, Warren had at least 19 touches in each of his last five games. On the year, Warren averages 106 rushing and 18.8 yards receiving per game on 23.9 touches. While Dominic Richardson ($3,600) will be involved as a change of pace, this should still be Warren’s backfield. He draws a middling matchup against West Virginia, but his price reduction has gone too far.
Tay Martin ($6,700) remains the alpha receiver for Oklahoma State, averaging 75.6 yards receiving per game on 7.3 targets. Behind him, Brennan Presley ($5,700) has been a consistent WR2, who averages 37.9 yards per game on five targets. Rashod Owens ($3,800) had challenged Presley on occasion this year, but he promptly hit the bench with Bryson Green ($4,000) returning from injury this week. Green immediately started and saw five targets in his first game back. This could become a timeshare, but Green looks like the preferred dart throw in this offense. Braden Cassity ($3,000) is the seldom used tight end and should not be targeted here.
West Virginia (23.25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 68.6 (86th)
Pass Rate – 55.00% (22nd)
Wildly inconsistent this year, the 4-4 Mountaineers have wins over Virginia Tech, TCU and Iowa State, but losses to Maryland, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Baylor. Unlike Oklahoma State, West Virginia has played pass heavy and slower football this year. However, this team did run 77.1 plays per game in 2020. Last week, their play volume spiked to 75. With increased efficiency, this team’s play volume should positively regress in the latter part of the season.
Similar to Notre Dame, West Virginia has situationally used two quarterbacks. Jarret Doege ($5,700) is the pure pocket passer for this offense and Garrett Greene ($5,300) is a dynamic spark in the run game. Doege has negative-65 cumulative yards rushing this year, while Green checks in with 300 on limited snaps. Normally, passing volume props up Doege. However, this year, he averages just 260 yards passing per game on 32.4 attempts. He is completing 66.3% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt. Still, he only has a pair of 300-yard passing games this year, one of which came last week against Iowa State. West Virginia’s play volume has risen of late, but Oklahoma State plays strong pass defense. They only allow 195.3 yards passing to their opponents this year. This makes Doege a GPP play at best this week.
At running back, Leddie Brown ($6,900) operates as the clear lead back. Brown has not been very efficient. He averages 80.3 rushing and 19.4 yards receiving per game on 21.6 touches. He has 26+ touches in two straight games and should continue to see a large workload here. Oklahoma State plays excellent run defense, allowing 93.9 yards per game. With the poor offensive line and tough matchup on deck, Brown a solid GPP play this week.
West Virginia continues to use Winston Wright ($5,000) and Bryce Ford-Wheaton ($4,700) as the team’s top two receivers. Both have a route rate north of 80% over the last two games. They also saw eight and nine targets respectively last week. Behind them, Sam James ($3,400), Isaiah Esdale ($3,800) and Sean Ryan ($3,300) rotate snaps. James led the team with a 60% route rate, while Esdale and Ryan reached 51% and 49% respectively. Esdale led the group with eight targets, making the ancillary receivers tough to decipher. With West Virginia also deploying two tight ends situationally, focusing on Wright and Ford-Wheaton looks like the best option for those playing the pass catchers.
Auburn vs. Texas A&M
Auburn (23 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 72.9 (37th)
Pass Rate – 51.96% (34th)
Improving on a weekly basis, Auburn has now overcome Arkansas and Ole Miss in back to back weeks. This is a sharp improvement after losing to Penn State and Georgia, while playing Georgia State and LSU to ten point games or less. With the coaching change this offseason, Auburn has employed more up-tempo, pass heavy techniques this season.
Veteran quarterback Bo Nix ($7,500) has shown some improvement this year after a disastrous first two years in school. Nix has serviceable mobility, with 179 yards rushing this year. As a passer, he has still been relatively inefficient with a few big games. He only averages 220.6 yards passing per game on 30.6 attempts. On the year, he completes 62.2% of his passes for 7.3 yards per attempt. Nix still does not have any 300-yard passing games this year, but he has been above 250 yards in three of his last four games. Either way, Texas A&M plays strong pass defense, holding opponents below 200 yards passing per game this year.
At running back, Tank Bigsby ($6,800) continues to lead a committee also featuring Jarquez Hunter ($4,300). Bigsby averages 83.9 rushing and 8.6 yards receiving per game on 17.5 touches. Hunter is also heavily involved and more efficient overall. He averages 66.3 rushing and 6.4 yards receiving per game for Auburn. Texas A&M plays stout run defense, allowing 130 yards rushing per game. This makes both Auburn backs pure GPP plays.
Demetris Robertson ($5,200) has quietly worked ahead of Kobe Hudson ($4,500) and Shedrick Jackson ($4,700) in terms of route rate. Ultimately, the targets are very close. Robertson leads the team with 52.4 yards on six targets per game. Hudson is right behind him with 47.1 yards per game on 5.3 targets. The same goes for Jackson, averaging 38 yards per game on 5.1 targets. Tight end John Samuel Shenker ($3,300) is also very involved, but he averages just 34.1 yards per game on 3.6 targets. Texas A&M plays solid defense, making all four risky options here.
Texas A&M (27 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 67.2 (96th)
Pass Rate – 47.96% (64th)
After back to back losses to Arkansas and Mississippi State midway through the year, Texas A&M has improved, evidenced by a win over Alabama. Still they have beaten up on the weaker SEC teams and now draw a tough out in Auburn this week. While Auburn has shown improvement in terms of efficiency, results have been mixed for Texas A&M. Their pass rate remains league average and their play volume is still low. With that said, they have also been showing improvement down the stretch. Texas A&M got off 79 plays in their last game and could see elevated volume against Auburn.
Losing Haynes King early in the year, Texas A&M has made do with Zach Calzada ($6,400). Calzada is not very mobile, with 24 yards rushing on the year and he also is not very developed as a passer. Calzada averages just 150 yards per game on 17.5 attempts. He completes just 55.3% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt. It comes as no surprise that Texas A&M has attempted to hide Calzada this year. He only has two games above 200 yards passing this year and a number of other quarterbacks look like better options at cheaper prices.
Like Auburn, Texas A&M will also utilize a running back by committee. Isaiah Spiller ($7,000) and Devon Achane ($6,700) have essentially worked into a 50/50 time share in recent weeks. Over the last two weeks, Spiller has 44 touches to Achane’s 38. Auburn plays middling run defense, allowing 141.9 yards rushing per game. Ultimately, this is a tough timeshare to target at elevated prices in a game with a 49-point total.
Texas A&M’s leading receiving on a per game basis is Ainias Smith ($5,600), who averages 43.4 yards per game on 6.1 targets. This ranks narrowly ahead of receiving tight end Jalen Wydermyer ($5,100), who averages 44.1 yards on 5.9 targets himself. These two are the top pass catching options for Texas A&M, but the Aggies have recently gotten healthier. Jalen Preston ($3,300) and Caleb Chapman ($3,700) each checked in with a 62% and 58% route rate in their most recent game. Chase Lane ($3,500) and Demond Demas ($3,100) also participated in 38% and 27% of the team’s routes. None saw more than three targets, making Smith and Wydermyer the preferred options in a poor game environment here.
Baylor vs. TCU
Baylor (32.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 65.4 (111th)
Pass Rate – 41.48% (105th)
Baylor enters this game with a 7-1 record and their only loss coming against Oklahoma State. Still, this Bears scheduled featured some of the easiest opponents in the country in non-conference play. Their wins over Iowa State and Texas came by single digits. Baylor utilizes a slow, run-heavy offense, which projects to be the case against a TCU team limping through the remainder of their season.
Gerry Bohanon ($7,700) will continue to game-manage Baylor here. Bohanon is fairly mobile, with 161 yards rushing on the year. He has been efficient as a passer, averaging 224.3 yards per game on 25.3 attempts. He even completes 64.5% of his passes for 8.7 yards per attempt. Bohanon’s issue is volume. Unless Baylor trails, their slow pace and heavy pass rate reduce Bohanon’s ceiling. He only has one 300-yard game this year and he has been held below 200 yards on four occasions. This makes him a tough sell at an elevated price tag this week.
After splitting time evenly with Trestan Ebner ($4,100) to begin the year, Abram Smith ($7,300) has emerged as the team’s lead back. Smith now has 48 carries to Ebner’s 22 over Baylor’s last two games. Smith has also out-targeted Ebner 4-2 in that span. While Smith will still cede change of pace work to Ebner, he is still viable against a TCU defense, allowing 225 yards rushing per game. Ebner could even be a tournament dart throw against TCU’s horrible run defense.
Baylor’s low-volume pass attack creates a lot of problems for DFS, unless opponents can push the Bears. Tyquan Thornton ($6,000) is the team’s top receiver. He averages 74.3 yards per game on 7.3 targets, but this volume has spiked to 8.8 targets per game over Baylor’s last four. R.J. Sneed ($5,200) also plays a consistent offensive role. He averages 62.1 yards per game on 5.1 targets. Behind them, Ben Sims ($3,900) plays tight end with Drew Estrada ($3,500) operating as the WR3. Sims averages 3.5 target per game over Baylor’s last four games, while Estrada has just three targets combined in Baylor’s last two. Both are pure GPP plays here.
TCU (26.25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 67.9 (93rd)
Pass Rate – 41.05% (109th)
Fresh off the firing of their coach, TCU limps into this game with a 3-5 record and a 1-4 record inside the Big 12. Their only wins came against Duquesne, Cal and Texas Tech. Each of their last three losses came by double digits, justifying the removal of their leader. Like Baylor, TCU is also slow and run heavy. Whether the coaching change affects this remains to be seen, but a spike in efficiency should not be expected.
Max Duggan ($6,700) has been one of the Big 12’s better dual-threat quarterbacks over the last few years. He has 250 yards rushing so far this year, but he also struggles to find volume. Duggan averages just 207.3 yards passing per game on 23.3 attempts. He is also completing a career best 64.9% of his passes for 9 yards per attempt. Still, Duggan only has one game with 300 yards passing this year. Held below 250 in all but one other game, Duggan has a questionable ceiling. Exacerbating issues, he will be facing a strong TCU defense after a coaching change.
Zach Evans ($6,000) missed last week’s game with a lower body injury and was spotted in a walking boot on the sidelines. His status has not been updated but should be considered questionable at best. Evans is the clear lead back when healthy, averaging 108 yards rushing and 21.8 yards receiving per game on 17.3 touches. Without him, TCU split the work to some degree, but Kendre Miller ($5,700) led the team with 17 touches. Emari Demercado ($3,600) and Daimarqua Foster ($3,000) each touched the ball five times, respectively. Baylor plays tough defense, but Evans and Miller could be worth a look in GPPs depending on who is active.
TCU has one legitimate receiving option in Quentin Johnston ($5,900). He averages 66.4 yards per game on 7.1 targets. However, he averages 8.7 targets per game since returning from injury. Behind him, TCU tightened their receiver rotation with Derius Davis ($4,200) and Taye Barber ($3,600) participating in 71% and 85% of the team’s routes. Quincy Brown ($3,000) also popped up for a 59% route rate, with Blair Conwright ($3,200) coming in at 39%. Less involved than normal, perhaps TCU will finally commit to their starting group. With just a one game sample to go off, this could return to a timeshare at any point. Johnston is the top play here, but Davis and Barber could also be used in GPPs if their increased role continues.
Penn State vs. Maryland
Penn State (33.25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 72.7 (41st)
Pass Rate – 54.42% (24th)
After one of the hottest starts to the year, Penn State has now dropped three straight games to Iowa, Illinois and Ohio State. This is a potential buy low spot after some of those losses came with an injured Sean Clifford. Penn State remains an up-tempo, pass heavy offense, often leading to DFS production.
Seemingly healthier after injuring his shoulder against Iowa, Sean Clifford ($6,000) is too cheap ahead of this contest. Clifford brings decent mobility, with his 133 cumulative yards rushing. He also averages 251 yards passing per game on 33.1 attempts. Clifford has also completed 65.2% of his passes for 7.6 yards per attempt. This has led to ceiling on multiple occasions, including over 350 yards twice. He did have a three game stretch below 200 yards, highlighted by the game against Indiana. However, he exited the Iowa game early with an injury and he struggled in his first game returning from injury against Illinois. He is a strong target here.
After Noah Cain ($4,200) opened the year as Penn State’s lead back, John Lovett ($3,300) led the backfield last week against Ohio State. He handled 14 touches, while Cain checked in with seven. Keyvone Lee ($3,800) also saw work as a change of pace, making this a tough situation to target. Maryland does allow 169.9 yards rushing per game, putting Lovett into play as a salary saving option at the position.
Penn State has a pure alpha receiver in Jahan Dotson ($7,600). Dotson averages 86.3 yards receiving per game on 11.5 targets, but he has seen at least 11 targets in four straight games now. His four game average has spiked all the way to 14.3. Behind him, Parker Washington ($5,500) and KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($3,800) are also extremely involved. Washington averages 6.5 target per game to Lambert-Smith’s 4.8. They saw ten and four targets respectively against Ohio State last week. Also involved, tight end Brenton Strange ($3,800) saw six targets last week, but he only averages 2.9 per game on the season. He will split time with Theo Johnson ($3,400) making both players tough to target.
Maryland (22.25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 70.9 (59th)
Pass Rate – 56.05% (15th)
Another team dealing with injuries, Maryland is also 5-3. They started the year 4-0, before dropping three straight games to Iowa, Ohio State and Minnesota. Last week, Maryland was able to somewhat right the ship after outlasting a pitiful Indiana squad on their third string quarterback by a score of 38-35. Like Penn State, Maryland has been very pass heavy and fairly up-tempo for most of the season. This game has sneaky shootout potential with exciting offenses on both sides.
Taulia Tagovailoa ($6,800) has functioned as a pure pocket passer this year with just six cumulative yards rushing. Tagovailoa strongly benefits from Maryland’s pass heavy attack. He averages 296 yards passing per game on 35 attempts. Tagovailoa has also shows excellent efficiency, completing 70.2% of his passes for 8.5 yards per attempt. Because of his immense volume, he has already eclipsed 300 yards on four occasions and 270 in two other spots.
For the third straight week, Maryland went full blown timeshare at running back between Tayon Fleet-Davis ($5,200) and Challen Faamatu ($4,600) Faamatu out-touched Fleet-Davis 22-19 last week as Maryland easily moved the ball against Indiana. Penn State is a more difficult task, but the Nittany Lions still allow 161 yards rushing per game. Both are pure dart throws in a pass centric Maryland offense.
With Dontay Demus and Jeshaun Jones both out for this offense, increased opportunity has fallen on Rakim Jarrett ($4,800). Jarrett has failed to capitalize for the most part, but he continues to see heavy target volume, including eight targets last week. Behind him, Marcus Fleming ($3,900) and Carlos Carriere ($5,500) are the next most active receivers. Fleming participated in 80% of the routes last week to Carriere’s 61%. However, Carriere out-targeted Fleming 9-6. Both Fleming and Jarrett are cheaper than Carriere, making them better plays overall.
LSU vs. Alabama
LSU (19.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 69.6 (73rd)
Pass Rate – 55.65% (18th)
LSU enters this game with a 4-4. Streaky all year, this team holds wins over Mississippi State and Florida, but losses to UCLA, Auburn, Kentucky and Ole Miss. For what it is worth all of their losses except UCLA came against ranked opponents. As an offense, LSU has struggled mightily with efficiency. Their play rate has fallen from 81.1 plays per game in 2020. With that said, their pass rate remains high and projects to remain elevated in this spot as heavy underdogs to Alabama.
After playing poorly all season Max Johnson ($8,000) ceded some work to Garrett Nussmeier ($5,500) in the pass game. Neither quarterback is very mobile, with negative-3 yards for Johnson and negative-31 for Nussmeier. Johnson has benefitted from volume at times with 250.4 yards per game on 33 attempts. Johnson has completed 61.4% of his passes for 7.6 yards per attempt. Fortunately for him, Nussmeier played even worse in relief, completing 58.3% of his passes. Nussmeier has shown a bad habit of taking sacks, which should keep Johnson in the starting lineup. However, this job is not as secure as it once was. Johnson is a risky GPP play in a difficult matchup here.
When possible, LSU has increased their run rate drastically. Tyrion Davis-Price ($6,500) had back to back 20+ carry games before negative game script held him to 17 in their last game. Corey Kiner ($5,000) also popped back up for ten carries after failing to see an opportunity the week prior. This backfield is still risky, and they draw a fierce opponent in Alabama this weekend.
LSU lost their alpha receiver, Kayshon Boutte earlier this year. Without Boutte, LSU has resorted to a nasty receiver rotation. Jaray Jenkins ($6,100) has the best route participation over the last two weeks, but he only managed a 68% route rate last week. Tight end Jack Bech ($5,400) came in at 58%. Trey Palmer ($5,600), Brian Thomas ($5,500) and Malik Nabers ($5,700) participated in 53%, 53% and 45% of the routes, respectively. LSU is also expected to return Deion Smith ($5,000), who has 20 targets in the three games before his injury. Jenkins is the best target here, but none of these players are solid options and none are averaging more than 37 yards receiving per game.
Alabama (47.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 76.4 (19th)
Pass Rate – 48.97% (54th)
Alabama remains the number two team in the country despite a 41-38 loss to Texas A&M. The Crimson Tide have defeated Miami, Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Tennessee on their way here. With Bill O’Brien taking over the offense this year, Alabama has played with considerable tempo and an above-average pass rate. While Alabama likely does most of the scoring, this game has a lot of intrigue for DFS behind this modern offense.
In his first year as the starter, Bryce Young ($10,500) has quickly emerged as one of the best quarterbacks in the country. After finishing with negative yards rushing multiple times this year, Young has finally showed off some of his mobility in recent weeks. He currently has 40 yards rushing on the year. As a passer, Young averages 306.3 yards passing per game on 33.6 attempts. In fact, he has been above 300 yards in five of eight games this year. While expensive, Young is still an excellent option behind Alabama’s immense total against LSU.
After a slower start to the year, Brian Robinson ($10,600) has emerged as Alabama’s lead back in recent weeks. Robinson has at least 24 touches in Alabama’s four games. Robinson has also been very efficient with 100.9 yards rushing and 23 yards receiving per game on 23 touches. LSU allows 184.4 yards rushing per game, making Robinson a solid play here.
Most of Alabama’s passing attack flows through John Metchie ($8,600) and Jameson Williams ($8,900). Metchie averages 75.1 yards per game on 8.3 targets, while Williams checks in at 88.5 yards per game on 6.9 targets. Both average over eight targets per game in Alabama’s last four. Unfortunately, Alabama does not use a consistent WR3. Slade Bolden ($5,300) has a 53% route rate, due to Alabama’s increased usage of 12 personnel, featuring Jahleel Billingsley ($5,300) and Cameron Latu ($6,000). None of these players even average four targets per game. However, Metchie and Williams are both in play with Alabama’s elite total.
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas
Mississippi State (25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 79.1 (9th)
Pass Rate – 73.30% (1st)
Another streaky team, Mississippi State enters this game with a 5-3 record. Their three losses came to Memphis, LSU and Alabama, while they hold wins over North Carolina State, Texas A&M and Kentucky. Under Mike Leach’s air raid, Mississippi State will be the pass heaviest team in the country, while playing with considerable pace. Interestingly, Mississippi State’s pass rate dropped 54% last week as they played from ahead against Kentucky. This is unlike Leach, and they likely return to their elevated pass rate here.
At quarterback, Mississippi State will use second-year starter Will Rogers ($9,100). Rogers is not mobile whatsoever, with negative-91 yards rushing this year. However, he is the direct beneficiary of Mississippi’s elevated pass rate. He currently averages 357.8 yards per game on 54.5 attempts. Rogers also completes 75.2% of his passes for 6.6 yards per attempt. Unfortunately for Rogers, FanDuel does reward this additional play volume as much as DraftKings. Without a rushing floor, Rogers is reliant on the additional play volume. Overall, Rogers is a solid floor play, but he has a questionable ceiling on this platform. Arkansas also plays excellent pass defense.
The primary beneficiary of Mississippi State’s elevated rushing attack was Jo’Quavious Marks ($7,900), who saw 20 carries and ten targets against Kentucky. Marks only averages 16.8 touches per games, so this was easily a season high. Behind him, Dillon Johnson ($6,200) saw 11 carries and three targets himself. The split the two also widened in terms of snaps. Marks played 49 snaps to Johnson’s 33. They are both risky based on a larger sample, but Marks increased involvement makes him GPP play. Arkansas allows 174.9 yards rushing per game. We will see is Mississippi State tried to exploit that.
Mississippi State’s targets fluctuate on a week to week basis, but the Rebels have used Makai Polk ($8,200) as their alpha. He ran route on 95% of dropbacks last week. He also leads the team with 75.4 yards receiving per game on 10.4 targets. Right behind him, Jaden Walley ($6,800) participated in 84% of the routes. Walley ranks second on the team with 54.1 yards per game on 5.8 targets. Austin Williams ($5,600) was third with 67%, while Malik Heath ($5,800) and Jamire Calvin ($5,100) checked in at 49% and 23% respectively. Lideatrick Griffin ($5,200) came in at 33%. Among this group, Heath averages the most targets, but Williams has been the most efficient, explaining his upgraded role. Of the darts, Williams looks like the preferred option.
Arkansas (30.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 72.7 (41st)
Pass Rate – 35.76% (124th)
After starting the year 4-0, Arkansas dropped three straight games to Georgia, Ole Miss and Auburn. To this point, their only two impressive victories came over Texas and Texas A&M. With Kendal Briles coordinating the Arkansas offense, the Razorbacks are playing well above average in terms of pace. However, they are one of the run heaviest offenses in the country behind their dual-threat quarterback.
Arkansas will use dual threat K.J. Jefferson ($9,200) as the engine of their offense. He is excellent on the ground with 419 yards rushing this year. He has not seen much volume in the pass game, but he still averages 206.6 yards passing per game on 22.1 attempts. The third year quarterback is completing 61.8% of his passes for 9.3 yards per attempt. Jefferson has two 300-yard games this year, but another four below 200. The rushing floor helps Jefferson, but he is still a risky option against a Mississippi State defense that has shown improvement over the course of the year.
Former lead back Trelon Smith ($6,400) has entered a full blown timeshare with Raheim Sanders ($6,000). Arkansas played Arkansas Pine Bluff in their most recent game, but even the game prior, Sanders touched the ball 17 times to Smith’s 10. Smith averages 11.6 touches per game to 10.6 for Sanders, but this appears to be getting close to a 50/50 split. Neither are strong targets against a Rebels team allowing just 89.6 yards rushing per game.
Arkansas has a pure alpha receiver in Treylon Burks ($8,700). Burks has a 32.4% target share, which equates to 89.1 yards receiving per game on 7.4 targets. Arkansas is a low-volume passing offense, but Burks receives elevated opportunity when they play from behind. Behind him, Tyson Morris ($5,900) and Warren Thompson ($5,800) have emerged as the WR2 and WR3. Thompson averages 4.8 targets per game over Arkansas’s last four games, compared to three targets for Morris. This has not amounted to much production with so much of the offense flowing through Burks. Overall, Burks is by far the best play on this offense.
Oregon vs. Washington
Oregon (29 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 69.5 (77th)
Pass Rate – 45.06% (78th)
Now 7-1, Oregon is ranked as the fourth team in the country after a huge upset win over Ohio State in Week 2. Oregon dropped a curious game to Stanford but have otherwise defeated Fresno State and UCLA. Their ranking is curious considering the level of ease on this schedule outside of Ohio State. As an offense, Oregon plays slightly below average in terms of pace and pass rate. This makes sense with a mobile, game manager-type quarterback under center.
Mentioned above, Oregon uses a pure game manager in Anthony Brown ($9,800) under center. Brown has solid mobility, with 365 cumulative yards. However, he lacks volume and efficiency as a passer. Brown currently averages 222 yards passing per game on 28 attempts per game. He currently completes 64.9% of his passes for 8.1 yards per attempt. He has shown a ceiling for the first time in his career over the last two weeks, eclipsing 295 yards passing in both. However, these performances have been rare over the course of his five year career. Washington plays tough pass defense, which could force Brown back to his game managing ways.
With C.J. Verdell out for the season, Travis Dye ($9,800) has taken on a larger workload. Last week, Oregon got a few more rushers involved while holding a massive lead over Colorado. In their recent competitive games, Dye has at least 18 touches in each. This includes excellent pass game involvement, where he averages 5.8 targets per game over Oregon’s last four. He ranks second on the team in targets. Washington allows 186 yards rushing per game, setting up Dye for another strong performance. He is an excellent play on the FanDuel slate.
Oregon runs one of the nastiest receiver rotations in the country. It appears Devon Williams ($6,500) has emerged as the WR1 with a route rate north of 62% in three straight weeks. However, no one else has consistently seen 50% of the routes. Johnny Johnson ($6,000), Mycah Pittman ($5,500) and Jaylon Redd ($5,900) are the next most consistent options. However, none of them average more than four targets per game in Oregon’s last four contests. Williams averages 5.0, making him somewhat interesting, but this is not a strong group to target.
Washington (22 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 68.0 (92nd)
Pass Rate – 48.53% (58th)
After a poor start to the year, Washington has climbed to 4-4 with wins over Arkansas State, Cal, Arizona and Stanford. Their losses came to Montana, Michigan, Oregon State and UCLA. Washington has struggled with efficiency this year, causing them to increase their pass rate. This offense has never been fast, but they have lost even more play volume this year. With Oregon on the other side, it looks like Washington will be forced into this approach here.
Dylan Morris ($6,200) is a pure pocket passer at the quarterback position. He has negative-39 yards rushing on the year and only averages 226.1 yards passing per game on 32 attempts. His efficiency looks just as questionable with Morris completing 60.9% of his passes for 7.1 yards per attempt. Morris also has eight interceptions, which raises cause for concern. With very little upside in any matchup, Morris is not a strong target here. He has eclipsed 200 yards passing in just one of his last four games.
Washington lost Richard Newton to a season ending injury and Kamari Pleasant ($5,500) did not play last week. This allowed Sean McGrew ($6,900) and Cameron Davis ($5,600) to split the backfield evenly, with McGrew out-touching Davis 20-19. They get a more difficult matchup here, but the condensed opportunity makes each more viable. They are risky GPP plays behind his poor implied team total.
Washington has significantly narrowed their playing time to Terrell Bynum ($6,600), Jalen McMillan ($6,600) and Rome Odunze ($6,200) at receiver with Cade Otton ($5,300) playing tight end. Bynum leads the team with 61 yards receiving per game on 5.4 targets. He looks like a buy low in after seeing one target last week. Odunze has come on strong recently and saw 11 targets last week. Oregon has shown leaks against the pass, allowing 279.7 yards per game. However, Washington still has a poor implied team total, making all of these players exceedingly risky.
Texas vs. Iowa State
Texas (26.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 68.2 (89th)
Pass Rate – 42.31% (92nd)
After a 4-1 start to the year, Texas has dropped three straight games to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Baylor. Their only wins have come against Louisiana, Rice, Texas Tech and TCU. Steve Sarkisian’s offensive efficiency from Alabama has not translated over to Texas. Texas is below average in terms of play volume and pass rate. With quarterback struggles, they have tried to hide Casey Thompson with an elevated run rate. However, negative game script often forces them to abandon this approach. Last week, they passed at a 58% clip.
With Texas largely trying to hide their passing game, Thompson ($8,300) only averages 193.9 yards passing per game on 22.1 attempts. He has been fairly efficient as a passer, completing 64% of his passes for 8.9 yards per attempt. This includes two 300-yard games and another at 280. With that said, he also has three games below 200 yards passing. Thompson has solid mobility, with 118 yards, which gives him a decent floor. Iowa State plays tough pass defense, but this game has a solid total, putting Thompson into play for tournaments.
Bijan Robinson ($10,500) continues to function as the engine of Texas’ offense. He has at least 20 touches in their last four games and averages 22.9 touches per game. He has also been incredibly efficient with 120.9 rushing and 26.3 yards receiving per game. Iowa State plays stout defense, but Robinson is still in play based on his workload and efficiency.
Texas lost Jordan Whittington earlier this year, setting up Xavier Worthy ($8,000) for his freshman explosion. Worthy now averages 82.1 yards per game on 6.6 targets. However, he has not seen fewer than eight targets in three straight games for Texas. Joshua Moore ($6,500) has operated as the WR2 and recently taken a step forward. After averaging 5.3 targets per game to start the year, he has at least seven in three straight games. Marcus Washington ($5,700) quietly asserted himself as the WR3 for Texas as well. He participated in 71% of the routes and saw nine targets in Texas’ most recent game. This is a tough matchup, but a solid over/under. This makes these receivers viable GPP plays.
Iowa State (33.25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 66.6 (100th)
Pass Rate – 48.71% (55th)
One of the most disappointing teams in the Big 12, Iowa State has three losses against Iowa, Baylor and West Virginia. Without a few special teams blunders and turnovers, this team would be undefeated. They have defeated Kansas State and Oklahoma State as their only two impressive victories. Iowa State wants to run the ball, but they have been brutal on the ground. They have been far more efficient through the air, but reluctant to embrace this approach. Overall, they are very slow on offense and slightly pass heavier than normal.
Playing some of the best football of his career, Brock Purdy ($8,500) currently averages 230.3 yards passing per game on only 27.1 attempts. he is currently completing 73.3% of his passes for 8.4 yards per attempt. While he only has one 300 yard passing game this year, he has been above 200 in five of his last six games. Purdy is also mobile, with 205 yards rushing so far this year. Ultimately, Iowa State does not give Purdy much of a ceiling with their heavy run rate, but this game has a solid total and keeps Purdy in play.
Like Robinson on the other side, Breece Hall ($10,700) remains one of the elite feature backs in the country. Hall has at least 20 touches in each of Iowa State’s last four games and averages 25.9 touches per game. This equates to 122 rushing and 26 yards receiving per game. Hall draws a much better matchup against a Texas defense allowing 202.9 yards rushing per game. He is also in play in the expensive tier.
Iowa State essentially uses Xavier Hutchinson ($8,100) at receiver and Charlie Kolar ($6,300) at tight end. The rest is horrific timeshare not worth breaking down. Hutchinson averages 73.8 yards per game on 7.9 targets, to Kolar’s 52.3 yards on 6.6 targets. They are the two easy stacking options with Purdy for those looking to take a stand on Iowa State.
Tennessee vs. Kentucky
Tennessee (28.25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 75.9 (24th)
Pass Rate – 40.11% (112th)
In the Volunteers first year under Josh Heupel, Tennessee is 4-4 at this point in the season. They have wins over some of the weakest teams in the country, including Bowling Green, Tennessee Tech, Missouri and South Carolina. Their losses came against Pitt, Florida, Ole Miss and Alabama. Characteristic of Heupel offense, Tennessee is playing extremely fast. However, their run rate has increased behind the play of their dual-threat quarterback.
Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker ($9,600) continues to lead Tennessee when healthy. Hooker is an excellent dual threat, with 416 yards rushing this year. He has also improved as a passer, averaging 197.6 yards per game on 20.9 attempts. This is reflected in his 68.7% completion percentage and his 9.5 yards per attempt. Hooker still does not have any 300 yard passing games this year, but he has been above 200 in each of his last five games. With his strong rushing totals, Hooker is active enough to target in GPPs here.
With both of their backs healthy, Tennessee resumed a 50/50 timeshare between Tiyon Evans ($7,100) and Jabari Small ($6,100). On the year, Evans averages 14.5 touches per game to Small’s 13.7. Evans has been slightly more efficient with 87.5 yards rushing per game to Small’s 325. However, this looks like a pure 50/50 time share against a stout Kentucky run defense. Neither are targets outside of larger GPPs.
Tennessee has operated business as usual among their receivers. Cedric Tillman ($6,900) continues to play every snap and finally saw a drastic role increase. Tillman averages 55.8 yards per game on 5.3 targets. However, he averages 7.3 targets per game over Tennessee’s last four as the team shows added commitment to him. Velus Jones ($6,700) has quieted a bit after his hot start. He now has 453 yards to Tillman’s 446. Jones still averages 6.8 targets per game over Tennessee’s last four keeping him in play. JaVonta Payton ($6,300) occupies the WR3 role. He averages just 35.9 yards per game on 3.3 targets. While viable in tournaments, Tillman and Jones are better plays at slightly more expensive prices.
Kentucky (28.25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 62.7 (126th)
Pass Rate – 43.05% (93rd)
After starting the year 6-0, Kentucky has dropped two straight games to Georgia and Mississippi State. They also have impressive wins over Florida and LSU. Kentucky has enjoyed positive game script this year, depressing their pass rate. However, this has shot above 50% in two straight games in negative game script. Kentucky’s play volume is also lower than normal after getting off just 48 plays against Mississippi State. This should regress sharply in a positive direction in coming weeks.
Penn State transfer Will Levis ($8,000) has struggled in recent weeks as Kentucky’s quarterback. Levis is fairly mobile, with 184 yards rushing this year. As a passer, he only averages 186.1 yards passing per game on 25.5 attempts. Levis completes 66.3% of his passes for 7.2 yards per attempt, showing moderate efficiency. However, Levis only has two games over 300 yards this year and only two games over 30 passing attempts. Volume is going to be a problem for Levis, making him a risky quarterback play despite the solid game environment.
Kentucky surprisingly gave Kavosiey Smoke ($5,800) the start last week and used him in a pure timeshare with Chris Rodriguez ($9,100). Smoke ended up receiving eight touches to Rodriguez’s nine. Smoke played 29 snaps to Rodriguez’s 21, and this looks like a timeshare moving forward. Tennessee does allow 160 yards rushing per game, opening the door to a positive performance, but the timeshare makes this backfield risky.
Kentucky uses a pure alpha receiver in Wan’Dale Robinson ($8,500). Robinson has not always been the most efficient with 82.8 yard per game. However, he averages 10.4 targets per game and has target counts of 15 and 14 in Kentucky’s two most recent games. Fortunately, the Wildcats returned their WR2 Josh Ali ($5,900) last week. Ali only saw four targets, but he averaged 4.8 per game prior to injury. Better days are ahead. Outside of that, no receiver saw more than two looks, making this an easy spot to isolate Robinson and then Ali as the preferred punt.
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