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College Football DFS: Bowl Games Projections & CFB Picks | Tuesday, 12/28/2021

Matt Gajewski



Tuesday’s slate features five games on DraftKings and FanDuel. This college football bowl game projection article will provide a DFS breakdown and look at each team and provide information about each skill position player of note. Make sure to check out Awesemo’s projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into this week’s iteration of the CFB DFS picks for today’s bowl game matchups.

CFB DFS Picks: College Football Bowl Picks


Donovan Smith ($5,400) – With Tyler Shough out and Henry Colombi away from the team, Donovan Smith will draw the start for Texas Tech against Mississippi State. The Red Raiders are 9.5-point underdogs to the Bulldogs in a game with a 58-point total. As an offense, Texas Tech passes the ball 49.7% of the time and they now find themselves in a pace up spot against the air raid in Mississippi State. Smith is 6-foot-5, 230 pounds and the most mobile quarterback currently on the Texas Tech roster. Smith has 125 cumulative rushing yards this year, despite starting limited games. He has also been somewhat efficient as a passer, eclipsing 262 yards in two of four games with at least 20 pass attempts. Mississippi State plays solid defense, but Smith offers solid dual-threat ability at a reduced price here.

Will Rogers ($8,800) – The other side of the Texas Tech game, Mississippi State has the highest implied team total on the slate at 33.75-points. Running the air raid, the Bulldogs pass the ball 73% of the time, while running 79.1 plays per game. On this absurd volume, Will Rogers averages 366.8 passing yards per game on 52.5 attempts. Rogers isn’t mobile whatsoever, but he makes up for it will raw volume in the passing game. On the year, Rogers has reached 300 passing yards in all but one contest, where he accounted for 294 passing yards in Week 2 against North Carolina State. With volume and game script working in his favor, Rogers is the safest quarterback play on the entire slate.

Dorian Thompson-Robinson ($8,500) –  While many will gravitate to Malik Cunningham ($8,600) in this price range, Dorian Thompson-Robinson makes for an intriguing contrarian play. First of all, Cunningham finds himself facing an elite Air Force run defense, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry. Conversely, this North Carolina State – UCLA game has the highest total on the slate at 60 points. North Carolina State is a 1.5-point favorite, but UCLA still has a 29.25 implied team total. Thompson-Robinson is an excellent rusher with 611 cumulative yards on the year. He has struggled at times through the air, but his 8.5 yards per attemtp and 62% completion percentage actually marks the best season of his career from an efficiency standpoint. North Carolina State plays solid defense, but this game has shootout potential based on the total. For that reason, Thompson-Robinson is an interesting contrarian option at the quarterback position.

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Running Back

Tony Mathis ($3,500) – Leddie Brown opted out of this game to pursue the NFL Draft. Brown vacates 272 touches and over 1,200 total yards of offense. West Virginia hasn’t really used other backs this year, but Tony Mathis looks like the most likely to step up here. Mathis has 256 rushing yards on 59 carries this year, while catching two of three targets in the pass game. Fortunately, West Virginia tipped their hand, giving Mathis 22 carries in the season finale. Behind him, Justin Johnson and Markquan Rucker carried the ball 19 and 2 times respectivley. A’Varius Sparrow hit the transfer portal, further reducing competition for Mathis here. In in the worst game environment on the slate, Mathis is a strong play.

Jo’Quavious Marks ($6,200) – For those looking at potential stacking options with Rogers, even running back Jo’Quavious Marks makes sense. On the year, Marks actually ranks second on the team in targets with 86. This equates to 7.2 targets per game. While these opportunites occur near the line of scrimmage, Marks still averages 35.6 receiving yards per game. When including carries, Marks’ touch count jumps to 15.8 per game for Mississippi State. Playing behind the slate’s largest implied team total, Marks makes sense as a mid-priced option at the running back position for Mississippi State.

Brad Roberts ($7,500) – With so much value of the slate, lineups will have to spend the extra salary somewhere. Right now, Air Force running back Brad Roberts looks like a potential option. The focal point of Air Force’s triple option attack, Roberts averages 106.8 rushing yards per game on 23.2 carries. Louisville allows 163.5 rushing yards per game creating a solid game environment for Roberts to exploit here. This game still has a 54.5-point total, keeping it live for a potential shootout.

Zach Charbonnet ($7,400) – While Roberts might be a safer option right now, Charbonnet could benefit from the potential absence of Brittain Brown ($5,700). Brown did not play in UCLA’s final two games of the year after averaging 12.9 touches per game. In those two games without Brown, Charbonnet touched the ball 29 and 28 times. While North Carolina State plays solid defense overall, this volume in a game with a 60-point total would be too much to pass up with Charbonnet.

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Ky Thomas ($6,600) – With a multitude of injuries at the running back position, Minnesota has resorted to a timeshare between Ky Thomas and Mar’Keise Irving ($5,500). Thomas leads this timeshare with at least 19 touches in four straight games. Irving is involved himself, but he hasn’t seen quite the same volume, averaging 12.2 touches per game. Overall, Minnesota only passes the ball 32.6% of the time, often creating enough for both runners. As five-point favorites over West Virginia in a game with a low 44.5-point total, Thomas and Irving deserve consideration in GPPs based on volume.


Kaylon Geiger ($3,900) – With Erik Ezukanma opting out of this game to pursue the NFL, Kaylon Geiger should step up as Texas Tech’s top receiver. Ezukanma missed a stretch of time this year due to injury and Geiger assumed the WR1 role in the offense. On the year, Geiger averages 44.8 receiving yards per game on 5.0 targets. However, Ezukanma vacates 63.5 yards per game and 6.7 targets, potentially boosting Geiger here. Mentioned above, this game environment has shootout potential and Geiger looks like the preferred stacking option with Smith at a discounted price.

Makai Polk ($7,900) – For those looking to pay up at receiver, Makai Polk stands out in a tier of his own for Mississippi State. The WR1 in the air raid offense, Polk averages 82.2 yards per game on 10.8 targets. Texas Tech struggles to defend the pass, allowing 8.3 yards per pass attempt. With so much value on the slate, paying up for Polk makes sense as the top projected scorer at the position on the Tuesday DFS slate.

Jaden Walley ($4,900) – For those looking to pay down in the Mississippi State offense, Jaden Walley and Austin Williams ($5,200) look like the top two candidates. Unfortunately, Malik Heath ($4,300) was in a car accident earlier this month and looks doubtful for this game. His status should be monitored, but his potential absense could thrust Walley and Williams into an elevated role. Walley and Williams already participated in 97% and 86% of snaps respectively in Mississippi State’s most recent game. The pair has also been highly targeted, with Walley averaging 6.3 and Williams averaging 4.0 targets per game over the Bulldogs’ last four contests. Overall, Walley plays the safer role, but both make sense depending on the overall roster construction of the specific lineup.

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Marshon Ford ($4,500) – Louisville has suffered from departures in the transfer portal at the wide receiver position. Both Jordan Watkins and Justin Marshall decided to leave the program, leaving Louisville thin at pass catcher. However, the Cardinals retain their most targeted pass catcher in tight end Marshon Ford. On the year, Ford accounts for 44 yards per game on 5.3 targets. Watkins and Marshall vacate 54 and 34 targets in this offense, assuming neither plays in the game. While Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($5,400) likely sees a larger role, Ford has already been the team’s most consistent pass catcher and he comes in with a cheaper price tag.

Check out Awesemo college football betting experts Ben Rasa and Matt Gajewski breaking down
the entire 2021 College Football Bowl Game Schedule and giving their predictions, best betting picks and parlays.

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Check out our industry-leading DFS CFB projections for FanDuel. Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world, developed and maintains the DraftKings college football DFS ownership projections for today. Looking for more the best college football DFS advice and CFB DFS?

Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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