Week 2 action continues with full slate of Saturday games and DraftKings and FanDuel have great contests for this slate of games. This CFB DFS breakdown will look at each team and provide information about each skill position player of note within the contest. The highlighted plays/game and pass rate will be from 2020. Make sure to check out our projections, depth charts and datasheets for more information. With that said, let’s dive into the first iteration of the college football DFS picks for Friday’s matchup.
College Football Deep Dive: Week 2 Saturday CFB DFS Picks
Pittsburgh vs. Tennessee
Pittsburgh (30 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 77.6 (18th)
Pass Rate – 54.38% (18th)
Pittsburgh enters this game fresh off a win over UMass 51-7. The Panthers finished 6-5 last year and returned eight starters on offense and six on defense. Despite losing multiple starters to the NFL on defense Calijah Kancey, Cam Bright and Marquise Williams all ranked inside the top three at their positions in the ACC. Now Pitt opens as a -3.5 favorite over Tennessee.
Veteran quarterback Kenny Pickett ($8,500) will lead the offense. Pickett plays in a high-volume passing attack. He threw 37 times in Week 1, completing 72% of his passes for 272 yards and two touchdowns. Pickett has solid mobility, evidenced by his 39 yards rushing in Week 1. An ankle injury reduced Pickett’s mobility last year, but he is back to full health. He is a solid mid-priced option here.
Pitt utilizes a committee at running back. Vincent Davis ($5,900) led the team last year with 632. He should lead the team again here, but Israel Abanikanda ($4,300), A.J. Davis ($4,400) Daniel Carter ($3,200), Todd Sibley ($3,000) and Rodney Hammond ($3,000) will all play a role. None are good option at the moment until a lead back emerges. Abanikanda looks the most likely to assume this role at some point.
Unlike running back, Pitt has a clear pecking order at receiver. Jordan Addison ($7,700) is the alpha. He led the team with 60 catches for 666 yards last year and paced the team with eight targets in Week 1. Taysir Mack ($4,400) is a veteran in the offense and saw six targets himself. The third starter looks less clear. Addison and Mack both ran a route on 76% of dropbacks. No other receiver eclipsed 42%. Jared Wayne ($5,200) and Shocky Jacques-Louis ($4,000) look likely to rotate in the WR3 slot. Tight end Lucas Krull ($3,700) received five targets and ran a route on 62% of dropbacks in Week 1. Addison and Mack are the best options here.
Tennessee (27 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 68.9 (92nd) / 88.0 (1st) – UCF’s numbers
Pass Rate – 45.57% (75th) / 49.55% (44th)
Tennessee overcame Bowling Green 38-6 last week. The Volunteers went 3-7 last year and no undergo a drastic offensive shift with former UCF coach Josh Heupel taking over. Last year, he led the NCAA in plays per game and he showed the same tendencies in Week 1. Tennessee ran 91 plays while passing just 29.7%. The pass rate figures to increase, but this Tennessee offense will continue to be exciting for DFS.
Joe Milton ($8,000) will quarterback Tennessee after an up-and-down performance against Bowling Green. Milton completed just 11 of 23 passes for 140 yards and a touchdown against a horrific Bowling Green team. Fortunately, Milton has rushing ability, recording 44 yards on the ground. This Tennessee offense has all the characteristics that lead to productive quarterback play. The mean concern with Milton at this point is an in-game benching in favor of Virginia Tech transfer Hendon Hooker.
Jabari Small ($5,800) started and led Tennessee’s backfield with 20 carries. Four-star JUCO transfer Tiyon Evans ($6,300) also carried 16 times. Evans proved far more efficient with 121 yards rushing to Small’s 93. Small caught the only pass between the two. This looks close to a 50/50 split moving forward. Both could be viable in certain constructions, but probably not together. Evans is questionable for this game, so watch his status. Small would become a strong play in that circumstance.
Tennessee used three clear receivers with Cedric Tillman ($5,300), Jalin Hyatt ($6,600) and Mississippi State transfer JaVonta Payton ($4,500) playing a majority of the snaps. Each ran a route on at least 72.4% of dropbacks with Tillman pacing the group at 93%. Hyatt led the team in both targets (8) and yards receiving (62). Tillman ranked second with six targets and 48 yards. Payton only received three targets and could split some time with Velus Jones ($4,700) who played limited snaps after being banged up in camp. Tillman and Hyatt are the best targets.
Tulsa vs. Oklahoma State
Tulsa (18.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 75.8 (30th)
Pass Rate – 47.95% (60th)
After losing the AAC championship to Cincinnati last year, Tulsa dropped their opener to UC Davis last week. This team returned 10 starters on offense and eight on defense, making the loss even more curious. This offense generally provides solid DFS options with an up-tempo, pass-heavy scheme. However, a miniscule team total makes Tulsa a tough sell in DFS.
Tulsa will trot out Davis Brin ($5,000) at quarterback. Brin offers no mobility and only racked up 194 yards on 28 attempts. He completed just 53.6% of his passes and runs the risk of getting benched for Seth Boomer at some point. Boomer missed the last game due to injury.
At running back Tulsa utilizes a two-man committee featuring Deneric Prince ($6,200) and Shamari Brooks ($3,800). Prince carried 14 times for 151 yards, while Brooks recorded 80 yards on 10 carries. Each also recorded a target. This will be a committee throughout the year, and both will have big games. However, a matchup against Oklahoma State does not bode well for either in this spot.
Tulsa’s base package features four wide receivers. Josh Johnson ($3,800), Keylon Stokes ($4,900), Sam Crawford ($3,400) and JuanCarlos Santana ($3,200) make up the starting group. All of them ran a route on at least 76% of dropbacks. Stokes led the team in receiving last year and in Week 1 with 94 yards. Johnson actually saw the most targets at nine. Crawford and Santana each only saw three targets, but both played almost the entire game. Santana finished second on the team in receiving last year. All four are options here in the cheaper price ranges.
Oklahoma State (32 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 79.5 (10th)
Pass Rate – 41.94% (97th)
Oklahoma State knocked off Missouri State 23-16 in Week 1 while playing without their quarterback Spencer Sanders ($7,500). This team went 8-3 last year and returned five starters on offense and eight on defense. Getting Sanders back should help, but this game provides a modest total at 52.5 points overall.
Sanders is tentatively expected back after missing last week due to Covid-19 protocols. Shane Illingworth ($7,400) threw for 315 yards last week, but it took 44 attempts to get there. He also rushed for 44 yards, so Sanders’ absence does not necessarily condemn the offense. However, Sanders is the more dynamic option. He has a career 62.8% completion percentage with 8.2 yards per attempt. Sanders also has excellent mobility. Both would be middling options.
L.D. Brown ($6,100) led Oklahoma State’s backfield with 15 carries for 29 yards. He also received three targets, which could boost his overall value. This run game struggled a bit, averaging only 4.1 yards per attempt on the ground (77th). This looks like it could be an issue again in 2021. Jaylen Warren ($4,100) mixed in for six carries and two targets himself, but his looks like Brown’s role as the lead back.
Losing Tylan Wallace and Dillon Stoner, Oklahoma State has big shoes to fill at wide receiver. The top two options look like Bryson Green ($3,300) and Tay Martin ($6,900). Martin is a former Washington State player, who turned 10 targets into 107 yards in Oklahoma State’s debut. Green saw eight targets, but only managed 41 yards. Still, he finished second on the team in routes run. Brennan Presley ($5,600) and Braydon Johnson ($4,000) finished with 68 and 2 yards receiving on seven and five targets. Concerningly, Presley on managed a 51% route rate, while Johnson checked in at 70%. Green looks like the most underpriced option here.
South Carolina vs. East Carolina
South Carolina (29.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 69.1 (91st)
Pass Rate – 46.60% (65th)
South Carolina starter their rebuild with a 46-0 win over Eastern Illinois in Week 1. This team finished 2-8 last year and hired Shane Beamer to take over. Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield previously coached with the Carolina Panthers under Joe Brady. This offense expects to play with more tempo and take a pass-heavy approach at the very least.
After missing Week 1, Luke Doty ($6,500) is tentatively expected to return. Doty played limited snaps last year but completed 60.6% of his passes for 5.7 yards per attempt. Fortunately, Doty has solid athleticism after recording 91 yards on 41 attempts. His presence would be a big boost to the team. If he cannot go, expect Zeb Noland ($7,200) to get the nod. Noland only threw for 121 yards, but that included four touchdowns. He is not known for his mobility, but he also added 10 yards on the ground.
South Carolina used three running backs in Week 1 with Marshawn Lloyd ($3,400), Juju McDowell ($3,000) and ZaQuandre White ($4,900) all receiving at least 12 carries. White started the game and rushed for 128 yards on 12 carries. He also added 39 yards receiving on four targets. Lloyd entered the game second. He carried 14 times for 55 yards, while turning two targets into 19 yards. McDowell entered the game third, but this still occurred in the second quarter. He turned 12 carries into 42 yards rushing and caught one pass for another 4 yards. White and Lloyd will likely form a committee with Kevin Harris ($7,500) when healthy. Harris returned to practice this week but could be eased into action. Last year, Harris easily led South Carolina with 1,138 yards and 15 touchdowns on 185 carries.
South Carolina used a pretty nasty wide receiver rotation in Week 1, but this should narrow in competitive games. The top options are Jalen Brooks ($4,900), Josh Vann ($3,700), Dakereon Joyner ($4,700) and OrTre Smith ($3,000). Brooks finished with 18 yards on three targets but ran the most routes. Vann turned two targets in to 27 yards but ran the second-most routes. Joyner ran the third most routes but functioned as a clear priority for the offense. His four targets tied for the team lead, and he also received three carries. All three look like cheaper options in a potentially under-rostered game.
East Carolina (27.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 75.2 (36th)
Pass Rate – 46.53% (66th)
East Carolina dropped their debut against Appalachian State 33-19. This team finished 3-6 last year and continues to struggle under Mike Houston. Generally they play uptempo, pass-heavy football. In Week 1, they rank 68 plays, while passing 64.7% of the time and struggling with efficiency. This game has a healthy 57.5 total, but the spread flipped from East Carolina -2.5 to East Carolina +2.
East Carolina will trot out veteran quarterback Holton Ahlers ($7,100) at quarterback. Ahlers completed 55% of his 41 pass attempts for 295 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in Week 1. Ahlers is a solid dual threat but has not relied on his legs as much of late. Ahlers has 592 yards rushing as a freshman and that has dropped every year since. He recorded just 14 yards rushing in Week 1, but hopefully he regains some of his rushing upside. He is a middling option here.
Already extremely pass-heavy, playing as underdogs will not help East Carolina’s run game. Their backs only accounted for 12 combined carries last week. Rahjai Harris ($5,500) handled eight attempts for 22 yards, while Keaton Mitchell ($6,600) carried four times for 50 yards. Luckily, both are active in the pass game. Mitchell turned seven targets in to 80 yards receiving, while Harris managed 56 yards on six targets. Both are middling to below-average price-adjusted options here.
With a crazy pass rate, East Carolina receivers are solid plays overall. C.J. Johnson ($5,400) led the team with seven targets for 34 yards receiving, followed by Tyler Snead ($6,500) with six targets for 26 yards. The third receiver spot was split between Audie Omotosho ($3,800) and Jsi Hatfield ($3,500), who ran routes on 60% and 46% of drop back respectively. Tight end Shane Calhoun ($3,000) split time directly with Ryan Jones ($3,200). With so many targets going to running backs, the receivers did not get as much of a chance to operate in Week 1. Snead was the leading returning receiver, but Johnson looks like the top price-adjusted play here.
Oregon vs. Ohio State
Oregon (24.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 62.7 (122nd)
Pass Rate – 46.01% (69th)
Oregon managed to overcome Fresno State in their debut but lost Kayvon Thibodeaux to injury. His status looms large for this tilt against Ohio State. Oregon retains Joe Morehead at offensive coordinator. They played considerably faster in Week 1 than all of 2020, running 76 plays. Some of this may be the product of Fresno’s quick offense, but Oregon should play faster than their 62.7 plays per game last year. They are large underdogs, but including an Oregon player as a run back in Ohio State stacks looks like a solid idea.
Boston College transfer Anthony Brown ($6,900) will quarterback the Ducks. Brown completed 15 of 24 passes for 172 yards and one touchdown in his debut. Importantly, Brown amassed 56 yards rushing, showing his dual-threat ability. He likely gets more opportunities through the air in a game Oregon projects to trail. He is a modest run back option to Ohio State stacks.
Oregon uses a two-man committee featuring C.J. Verdell ($5,400) and Travis Dye ($4,800) at running back. Verdell out-carried Dye 17-13 and out-gained him 71-64 on the ground. Dye did see two targets to Verdell’s one, but this looks like a 1A/1B situation in favor of Verdell. Ohio State allowed 4.1 yards per carry in their debut, making this a tough spot for Oregon runners.
Oregon played some games at wide receiver in Week 1. Four-star freshman Troy Franklin ($4,700) was listed as a clear starter but only played 16 snaps. It was revealed after the game that Franklin sustained an injury in practice. It is to be seen what role the premier recruit will play when healthy. The players that actually received a significant role were Kris Hutson ($3,200), Mycah Pittman ($4,200) and Johnny Johnson ($5,100). Hutson was listed as a third stringer, making his 94% route share even more curious. Pittman and Johnson ran a route on 73% of dropbacks, respectively. Pittman led the team with 40 yards on five targets. Johnson turned his four targets into 76 yards. Hutson only managed 22 yards on a pair of targets. Pittman played in the slot on 96% of his snaps. Hutson looks most likely to cede snaps to Franklins, but this is a volatile situation. Pittman and Johnson are the most secure options for run backs.
Ohio State (39 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 73.9 (43rd)
Pass Rate – 41.62% (102nd)
After getting into trouble early, Ohio State ultimately overcame an outmatched Minnesota team in Week 1. Concerningly, Ryan Day and Kevin Wilson showed little feel for their team, forcing the ball into C.J. Stroud‘s hands instead of the run game. They opened as two-touchdown favorites here with a massive total, putting most Ohio State offensive options into play for DFS.
New starter C.J. Stroud ($) played up-and-down football in his debut. He completed 59.1% of his passes for 294 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Certainly benefitting from receivers running open down-field, Stroud’s individual talent level can be masked by superior play at other positions. Stroud turned in 13 yards rushing, giving him modest dual-threat ability. However, as Week 1 showed Stroud is stackable based on the Ohio State offense alone. With the potential for weekly growth, he will be a solid option throughout the year.
Frustratingly, Ohio State turned away from the run early against Minnesota despite having success. The backfield actually uses four rushers, led by sophomore Miyan Williams ($7,300). Williams carried nine times for 125 yards. Master Teague ($5,000) and Marcus Crowley ($3,000) both mixed in for inefficient performances, characteristic of each’s career with the program. All six of Crowley’s carries occurred on the final drive of the game. Stud five-star freshman TreVeyon Henderson ($4,300) only received two carries for 15 yards but should see an increasing role throughout the season. Even Williams is hard to trust at this price with a questionable workload. However, the Ohio State backs all possess undeniable upside.
Ohio State has a clear pecking order at receiver with Garrett Wilson ($5,900) and Chris Olave ($7,200) at the top. Olave had the big game in Week 1 with 117 yards on just six targets. Wilson saw 11 targets himself, but only reeled in 80 yards receiving. Both are phenomenal options, but Wilson is the superior price-adjusted play overall. Jaxson Smith-Njigba ($4,200) functioned as the WR3. He turned two targets into 12 yards, while running a route on 63% of the dropbacks. Tight end Jeremy Ruckert ($3,200) caught his only target for 15 yards and ran a route on 79% of dropbacks.
Florida vs. South Florida
Florida (43.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 71.7 (67th)
Pass Rate – 57.33% (8th)
Dan Mullen and Florida opened with a 35-14 win over FAU in Week 1. One of the most efficient offenses in all of football last year, Florida typically plays faster than 71.7 plays per game. In Week 1, they ran 81 against South Florida. However, this team will not come close to the 57.3% pass rate from last year. Moving on from Kyle Trask, Florida operated between a pair of dual threats in Week 1. This should keep the run rate high, but this team is still favored by four touchdowns against South Florida.
Florida used both Emory Jones ($9,000) and Anthony Richardson ($8,400) in Week 1. Jones completed 63% of his passes for 113 yards (4.2 yards per attempt), one touchdown and two interceptions. An excellent dual threat, Jones rushed for 74 yards on 10 carries. Importantly, Richardson also received playing time. He played 26 snaps to Jones’ 59, but this still limits Jones’ upside. Richardson only completed three of eight passes for 40 yards, but he rushed for 160 on the ground. If Florida commits to a single quarterback, the upside is immense. Right now, Jones is a GPP option as a loose starter in the Gators’ offense.
Malik Davis ($5,600) led a running back by committee with 14 carries for 106 yards on the ground. He also saw two targets in the pass game. Dameon Pierce ($6,000) was also involved with six carries for 31 yards, while seeing five targets in the pass game. Clemson transfer Demarkcus Bowman ($3,000) mixed in for three carries himself, but he was a distant third option. Davis actually ran more routes than Pierce, making him the preferred play in the offense.
Florida will skew run-heavy this year, but the receivers will still have big games in an efficient offense. Florida typically rotates their receivers, but Trent Whittemore ($4,000), Justin Shorter ($5,200) and Jacob Copeland ($6,400) all ran route between 52% and 55% of the time. Rick Wells ($4,200) actually tied for the team-lead in targets (5) but only ran a route on 32% of dropbacks. Tight end Kemore Gamble ($3,000) also saw his route rate come in at 58%. For such a run-heavy team, the time shares among pass catchers generally creates a situation to avoid outside massive tournament entries. Whittemore is the best option, if forced to pick.
South Florida (14.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 76.6 (23rd)
Pass Rate – 51.39% (35th)
Barely implied for two touchdowns, South Florida could be in for another rough season. The Bulls were shutout 45-0 in Week 1 against North Carolina State and now face another formidable opponent. South Florida tries to play fast under Charlie Weis when possible. They will struggle with efficiency against good opponents, but the pass rate will always be high for this team.
South Florida started Cade Fortin ($4,700), but also used Timmy McClain ($4,500). Fortin was a disaster, completing 35% of his passes for 41 yards and an interception. McClain completed 53.8% of his passes for 126 yards and two interceptions. Fortin rushed for 23 yards, compared to 16 for McClain. Neither is a good option.
South Florida utilized a running back by committee with Darrian Felix ($3,00 at the top. Jaren Mangham ($3,500) and Brian Battie ($4,400) both played as well, making this a situation to completely avoid. For what it is worth, Felix started.
The top three receivers for South Florida were Bryce Miller ($4,400), Latrell Williams ($3,500) and Xavier Weaver ($4,000) in that order. Weaver ran the least routes among the trio but led the team with 10 targets and 73 yards receiving. Williams turned five targets into negative-5 yards receiving. Miller actually ran the most routes, but only turned his two targets into 18 yards. No one else ran a route on more than 29% of dropbacks and everyone in this situation is an avoid.
Rutgers vs. Syracuse
Rutgers (27.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 75.4 (34th)
Pass Rate – 49.48% (46th)
An improving team under Greg Schiano and Sean Gleeson, Rutgers knocked off Temple 61-14 in their debut. This team went 3-6 with some major wins at the tail end of 2020. Under Gleeson and dual-threat quarterback Noah Vedral, this team will play balanced but uptempo. They ranked 34th in pace last year and ran 80 plays in their debut. They are a sneaky team to target here.
Former Nebraska quarterback, Vedral ($6,700) completed 55.6% of his passes for 138 yards and a touchdown in an easy Week 1 win. Vedral has solid dual-threat ability and rushed for 58 yards on the ground. He is not dynamic as a passer, but this Rutgers offense creates opportunities for skill position players. Vedral is slightly too expensive, but a potential option in GPPs.
Isaih Pacheco ($5,200) led the backfield with 14 carries for 35 yards. Pacheco also saw two targets in the pass game, but otherwise turned in a mediocre performance. He was complemented early in the game by Aaron Young ($5,100) and as soon as the second quarter by Kyle Monangai ($4,000). Young and Monangai each rushed eight times for 26 and 28 yards, respectively. Pacheco did dominate routes out of the backfield at 53%. Pacheco should receive most of the work, but he looks unlikely to approach bell-cow status.
At receiver Bo Melton ($5,700) still looks like the alpha. He turned six targets into a team-leading 58 yards receiving. Aron Cruickshank ($4,400) received seven targets from his slot role, recording 24 yards receiving. Behind these two, no other receiver ran a route on more than 35% of dropbacks (Brandon Sanders). This makes Rutgers easy to target is stacking this game.
Syracuse (25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 63.1 (119th)
Pass Rate – 53.89% (20th)
A historically strong coach, Dino Babers uncharacteristically finished 1-10 last year. Syracuse took down Ohio 29-9 in their debut and now sit as slight underdogs to Rutgers. It is hard to separate Syracuse’s true offensive tendencies from pure inefficiency, but this team appears balanced, but slow when playing their preferred style. Sterling Gilbert enters his second years as offensive coordinator here.
Tommy DeVito ($6,200) is the quarterback for Syracuse here. He continued his semi-efficient play, completing 11 of 17 passes for 92 yards in Week 1. DeVito has some rushing chops, recording 49 yards last week. However, he is a low-upside option on a 12-game slate.
Syracuse completely committed to a feature back in Sean Tucker ($6,800). Tucker carried 25 times last week for 181 yards against Ohio, while seeing one target in the pass game. Rutgers only allowed 113 yards rushing in Week 1, making this a more difficult matchup. Still, Tucker is a rare bell-cow back on this slate.
At receiver Taj Harris ($5,100) is still the alpha. He turned eight targets into 29 yards last week. Anthony Queeley ($4,300) is the second receiver to note. He converted three targets into 39 yards. Sharod Johnson ($4,7000) was the final starter, seeing two targets for 24 yards. All three ran a route on at least 84% of dropbacks. This game does not have the highest total, but narrow target distributions keep the pass catchers in play on both sides.
Toledo vs. Notre Dame
Toledo (19.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 79.3 (11th)
Pass Rate – 48.95% (51st)
Playing an all-MAC schedule last year, Toledo finished 4-2 in conference play. The Rockets handled Norfolk State 49-10 last week, but now face a much tougher test in Notre Dame. Toledo plays fast and balanced football overall. They return 10 starters on offense and 11 on defense. Rob Weiner and Matt Hallett enter their second year as co-offensive coordinators.
Carter Bradley ($5,700) started at quarterback for Toledo. He completed 72.7% of his passes for 183 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Bradley is not much of a rusher, but current backup Dequan Finn ($5,500) rushed for 82 yards and a touchdown on nine attempts. He also threw for 38 yards on five attempts. Bradley did enough to remain the starters, but his leash is short. It is possible we see a quarterback platoon for Toledo moving forward.
Toledo used running back by committee, led by Bryant Koback ($6,500) last week. Koback has the chance to operate as a feature back after Toledo blew out Norfolk State. He carried the ball nine times for 48 yards, while seeing three targets in the pass game. Micah Kelly ($3,500) carried the ball second-most at eight time, but he did not enter the game until the second half. Jacquez Stuart ($3,400) actually entered the game second, but only carried the ball four times for 23 yards. Jordan Lowe ($3,000) did not appear in the game until the fourth quarter.
Toledo uses a nasty rotation at receiver. Bryce Mitchell ($3,300) and Isaiah Winstead ($4,200) are listed as co-starters along with Denzel McKinley-Lewis ($3,900) and Jerjuan Newton ($3,000). The only individual starter is Devin Maddox ($4,800). McKinley-Lewis actually led the team with a 71% route rate. Everyone else hovered around 50% of worse. The only other wrinkle was Mitchell’s ejection for unsportsmanlike conduct. McKinley-Lewis looks like the top option if rolling the dice with a Toledo pass catcher.
Notre Dame (36.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 74.3 (38th)
Pass Rate – 43.39% (88th)
After finishing 10-2 and losing premier starters on both sides of the ball, Notre Dame barely overcame Florida State in Week 1. This team plays above average in pace and generally focuses on a run-first approach. New quarterback Jack Coan does not have the same mobility as former quarterback Ian Book. Notre Dame adjusted by passing at a 52.7% rate after passing at just a 43.4% rate last year. This is a change to monitor moving forward under offensive coordinator Tommy Rees.
Former Wisconsin quarterback Jack Coan ($8,900) took over for the Irish in Week 1. He completed 74.3% of his passes for 366 yards, 10.5 yards per attempt, four touchdowns and an interception. Coan does not have great mobility, so he relies on his arm talent to rack up points. Notre Dame’s defense looked concerning enough to potentially keep Notre Dame in shootouts this year. Unfortunately, Toledo looks unlikely to keep this close. Coan is a GPP play.
Kyren Williams ($7,300) will lead Notre Dame’s rushing attack for the second straight season. Horribly inefficient on the ground in Week 1, Williams rushed for 42 yards on 18 attempts. Luckily, Williams is an excellent pass catcher. he turned six targets into 83 yards receiving. Chris Tyree ($5,100) functions as a change of pace. He turned seven carries into 31 yards but saw four targets in the pass game himself. Williams is an excellent expensive running back option.
Sophomore tight end Michael Mayer ($7,400) broke out in a major way for Notre Dame. The elite athlete led the team with 13 targets and 120 yards receiving. Among the actual receivers, Kevin Austin ($5,800), Braden Lenzy ($4,400) and Avery Davis ($4,700) played the most. Austin led the receivers in routes and targets at seven. He parlayed that into 91 yards receiving. Davis played the second-most but failed to see a target. He is a decent buy-low. Lenzy played the third most and turned four targets into 39 yards receiving. Mayer, Austin and Davis are the best options in that order.
UAB vs. Georgia
UAB (10.25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 66.4 (105th)
Pass Rate – 40.30% (109th)
UAB shutout Jacksonville State to open their season after going 6-3 last year. UAB returned eight starters on offense and nine on defense on top of their important coaches. Bryant Vincent generally coordinates one of the slower, run-heavier offenses in college football. Georgia is a large favorite, potentially elevating UAB’s miniscule pass rate.
Tyler Johnston ($5,100) will quarterback UAB after a strong performance in Week 1. He completed 17 of 21 passes for 320 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Johnston has strong dual-threat ability, but it is not worth considering against Georgia.
UAB will utilize a committee at running back consisting of Jermaine Brown ($5,300) and DeWayne McBride ($4,200). They carried 14 and 12 times respectively, but Georgia is a completely different animal. They are not worth considering here.
Ryan Davis ($3,800) and Trea Shropshire ($4,900) tied for the team lead with five targets. However, Davis only ran route on 64% of dropbacks. Behind them, no one ran a route on more than 48% of dropbacks. With time-share and limited pass opportunities, UAB is not worth targeting.
Georgia (34.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 70.3 (84th)
Pass Rate – 46.37% (67th)
Kirby Smart and Todd Monken picked up a huge win over Clemson in Week 1. Neither team put together any efficiency on offense, but Georgia also played without many of their top pass catchers. The Bulldogs passed 50% of the time, but only got off 62 plays. Against weaker opponents, they should show more efficiency but also pass less. That figures to be the case against UAB. When they do throw, Monken is not shy about attacking downfield.
J.T. Daniels ($7,900) completed 22 of 30 passes for 135 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. He also averaged just 4.5 yards per attempt. However, Georgia continues to get healthier at pass catcher, which should help Daniels as the season moves along. He is not mobile whatsoever, so he will rely on his arm talent. With a spread north of three touchdowns, this may not be the matchup to look at Daniels. UPDATE: Daniels is questionable for this game. Carson Beck should start, if Daniels can’t go.
In the run game, Georgia uses upwards of five backs. Zamir White ($7,700) will lead the committee. He rushed for 74 yards on 14 carries last week, while Kendall Milton ($3,200), James Cook ($5,000) and Kenny McIntosh ($3,500) all struggled with efficiency. Unfortunately, Kirby Smart will not use a feature back no matter how efficient they are. Sometimes, preventing transfers takes precedent over efficient play. Cook will be the receiving back, for the little it is worth.
Georgia is decimated at receiver but could get healthier soon. Hybrid tight end Arik Gilbert is away from the team. 2020 five-star tight end Darnell Washington underwent foot surgery and will not be back for a few weeks. George Pickens tore his ACL in the spring. Dominick Blaylock ($3,000) has returned to practice, but his game status is uncertain as he rehabs his ACL. Even Jermaine Burton ($6,700) played limited snaps after missing most of camp due to injury. Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint ($5,500) ran the most routes at 84%, followed by Burton at 69%. Tight end Brock Bowers ($3,600) ran a route on 72% of dropbacks. He also led the team with six targets. He should continue to have a sizeable role until Washington returns. Georgia uses a lot of two tight end sets, so WR3 Ladd McConkey ($3,000) only ran a route on 47% of dropbacks as he split time with ancillary receivers and tight ends. None are particularly strong options in an unsettled receiver room, but focus on Burton, Rosemy-Jacksaint and Bowers if taking a contrarian approach to this game.
California vs. TCU
California (11.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 75.2 (35th)
Pass Rate – 50.83% (38th)
California lost their debut against Nevada 22-17 after finishing with a disappointing 1-3 record last year. Head coach Justin Wilcox will be on the hot seat if he continues his poor decision making. One of which was hiring failed NFL play caller Bill Musgrave. Musgrave’s is known for a pass-heavy, inefficient approach. Passing 59.7% of the time and running 67 plays in Week 1, California showed no improvements from 2020 despite returning nine starters on offense and eight on defense.
Starting quarterback Chase Garbers ($6,400) was a complete disaster in Week 1. He completed 25 of 38 passes for 177 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Garbers has some mobility, keeping his name in play for GPPs. However, the low implied team total should be reason enough to look elsewhere.
Damien Moore ($5,700) led the backfield with 15 carries for 79 yards. He also turned four targets into 16 yards. No other back saw more than three carries, giving him a solidified workload. However, the 11.5 team total makes him a risky play in DFS. Marcel Dancy ($4,100) will also provide a change of pace at times.
Nikko Remigio ($5,200) led the team with eight targets, but he only managed 17 yards on this volume. Outside of Remigio, tight end Jake Tonges ($3,700) ran the second-most routes at 85%. Receiver Trevon Clark ($4,300) produced a 68% route rate but out-targeted Tonges 5-2. None of the receivers are particularly strong options.
TCU (29.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 70.7 (80th)
Pass Rate – 41.93% (98th)
TCU knocked off Duquesne in a gimme win in Week 1 after going 6-4 last year. Gary Patterson is the head coach and he promoted wide receiver coach Doug Meacham to offensive coordinator this offseason. TCU played slightly below average in pace and pass rate last year. Meacham’s influence has yet to be determined, but his game has a horrific 48-point total overall. The Horned Frogs returned 10 starters on offense and eight on defense.
Max Duggan ($8,800) enters his third season as the starting quarterback. Duggan did not have to do much in his debut, but he completed 73.7% of his passes for 207 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Duggan is an excellent dual threat but did not have to use his legs at all in Week 1. While Duggan has an attractive skillset for DFS, the low total here makes him a middling play at best.
TCU uses a frustrating running back by committee. Daimarqua Foster ($3,200) led the team with 10 carries for 32 yards. Kendre Miller ($4,500) carries eight times for 54 yards. Zach Evans ($4,600) managed 27 yards on five totes. Emari Demercado ($3,900) also received five carries making this backfield a complete disaster.
Quentin Johnston ($5,100) looks likely to operate as the team’s alpha receiver this year. He saw seven targets in his debut, which he parlayed into 38 yards receiving. Behind him, Savion Williams ($3,900) ran the second-most routes, followed by Quincy Brown ($3,000). TCU has an annoying history of wide receiver rotations, but Johnston and Williams look like the safest options for now. Former starters Taye Barber ($3,500) and J.D. Spielman ($3,000) ran routes on 8% and 20% of dropbacks, respectively. There is some noise here due to opponent, but Johnston ran a route on 64% of dropbacks. This does not seem good for Barber or Spielman.
Texas A&M vs. Colorado
Texas A&M (33.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 68.4 (93rd)
Pass Rate – 45.03% (79th)
Texas A&M defeated Kent State 41-10 in Week 1 after going 9-1 in 2020. Despite the win, new quarterback Haynes King showed some questionable decision making with three interceptions. Jimbo Fisher and Darrell Dickey remain in place for A&M, but they replace five offensive and two defensive starters. Texas A&M plays below average in both pass rate and tempo.
Up-and-down in his first start, Haynes King ($8,300) completed 63.6% of his passes for 292 yards, a pair of touchdowns and three interceptions in his debut. King is an excellent dual threat and also rushed for 22 yards. Overall, King displayed flashes of brilliance with a few avoidable turnovers. He appears to have job security, putting him squarely in play for DFS as a strong dual threat.
Veteran Isaiah Spiller ($6,700) led the backfield with 17 carries for 113 yards. Spiller also turned three targets into 24 additional yards. He will operate as the feature back with Devon Achane ($5,900) providing a change of pace. Achane also rushed 12 times for 124 yards. Spiller is the preferred play.
The receiver room is narrow with Ainias Smith ($7,600), Chase Lane ($6,200) and Caleb Chapman ($5,500) operating in three receiver sets. Smith led the team with 10 targets and 100 yards receiving. Chapman turned his six targets into 91 yards, while Lane managed 41 yards on six targets as well. Athletic receiving tight end Jalen Wydermyer ($5,000) ranked second on the team with eight targets. Because of the narrow target distribution all four are options, but Smith and Wydermyer enter the slate as the top price adjusted plays.
Colorado (16.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 76.8 (21st)
Pass Rate – 40.13% (110th)
After finishing 4-2 last year, Colorado picked up a cupcake win over Northern Colorado in Week 1. Darrin Chiaverini will coordinate the offense. They play uptempo and generally skew run heavy. Colorado returns eight starters on both sides of the ball but still looks outmatched against Texas A&M.
Brandon Lewis ($5,900) took over signal calling duties for Colorado this year. He completed 10 of 15 passes in Week 1 for 102 yards and one touchdown. Lewis is a strong dual threat, who also rushed for 44 yards on the ground. He is a lower-upside option with Colorado entering the slate as three touchdown underdogs. However, his mobility keeps him in play for GPPs.
Jarek Broussard ($7,000) led Colorado’s backfield again after a breakout 2020. He carried 15 times for 94 yards in the opener. Alex Fontenot ($4,800) is also back from injury. He and Ashaad Clayton ($3,000) both carried eight times in the opener and will provide change of pace play to Broussard. Broussard is a middling option in a tough spot here.
Colorado barely threw the ball in Week 1, but Dmitri Stanley ($5,000) should be the top receiver after leading the team in receiving last year. He was listed as a clear starter alongside Brenden Rice ($3,800), who played but failed to see a target in Week 1. Daniel Arias ($3,200) and La’Vontae Shenault ($4,200) entered the year as co-starters and have not shown anything to disprove that yet. Stanley and Rice are the best options for an underwhelming passing attack.
Ball State vs. Penn State
Ball State (17.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 80.6 (8th)
Pass Rate – 43.26% (90th)
Ball State went 7-1 last year, including a blowout win over San Jose State in their bowl game. They opened Week 1 with a 31-21 win over Western Illinois. This team returned 10 starters on both sides of the ball. This team plays extremely fast and balanced football overall. While it likely makes Ball State hard to roster by themselves, they are live in runbacks to Penn State stacks.
Drew Plitt ($6,100) plays for a high-volume offense, but he does not offer much mobility and has to get there primarily with his arm. Plitt completed 17 of 28 passes for 188 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1, but Ball State gets a much tougher task here. Plitt is a GPP option only in large field tournaments.
Ball State used Will Jones ($4,900) as their primary runner in Week 1. Jones carried 18 times for 93 yards. He was not involved whatsoever in the pass game and has not been throughout his career. Carson Steele ($4,700) will be a change of pace, but expect Jones to lead an uninspiring backfield here.
Justin Hall ($6,300) and Yo’Heinz Tyler ($4,200) are the top two pass catchers for Ball State. Hall turned 11 targets into 137 yards in Week 1, while Tyler recorded 32 yards on eight targets. With the pass heavy nature of this offense, both could be used as potential run backs in Penn State stacks. Jayshon Jackson ($3,700) was the WR3, but he only ran a route on 53% of dropbacks.
Penn State (40.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 73.8 (44th) / Texas numbers’/ 81.9 (3rd)
Pass Rate – 49.86 (42nd) / 45.45% (76th)
After finishing below 500 last year despite a positive point differential, Penn State picked up a huge 16-10 win over Wisconsin in Week 1. The Nittany Lions only managed 53 plays but passed the ball 66% of the time. New offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich played uptempo at Texas last year. This offense has the chance to be very exciting in 2021.
Penn State quarterback Sean Clifford ($8,100) threw for 247 yards and one touchdown against a historically strong Wisconsin defense. Clifford struggled with accuracy throughout the game but provided enough to get the win. Clifford only rushed for 5 yards, but he has been a strong dual threat throughout his career. Coming in with a modest price, Clifford is a relatively strong consideration at quarterback in Week 2.
Penn State abandoned the run early against Wisconsin. Noah Cain ($6,400) led the backfield with 48 yards on eight carries. He also saw six targets in the passing game, keeping him relevant in all game scripts. Keyvone Lee ($3,800) only received three carries as a change of pace, tentatively putting Cain into a feature role. He is worth targeting in tournaments in a much easier matchup.
Jahan Dotson ($7,000) returned to Penn State after a breakout 2020 year. He turned 10 targets into 102 yards in Week 1 as the clear alpha. Parker Washington ($4,000) and KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($3,900) will function as the WR2 and WR3. They saw six and five targets, respectively. Washington finished with 47 yards, while Lambert-Smith managed 71. They are all reasonable options on a team with a strong implied team total.
Iowa vs. Iowa State
Iowa (20.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 69.4 (89th)
Pass Rate – 46.67% (64th)
Iowa dismantled Indiana 34-6 in their opener with superior play in the trenches. Iowa generated 14 quarterback pressures and ran the ball to victory. This team plays slow, run-heavy football and struggles to keep up when playing at a deficit. They are 4.5 underdogs here, suggesting that is a legitimate possibility.
A pure game manager, Spencer Petras ($5,400) completed 48.1% of his passes for 145 yards in Week 1. He cannot really run or throw. Plus, this game has a miniscule total. He is not an option.
Iowa plays run-heavy, slow-paced football, putting Tyler Goodson ($7,100) into play on a weekly basis. He carried 19 times for 99 yards in Week 1, while seeing three targets in the pass game. Ivory Kelly-Martin ($3,300) mixed in for eight carries himself, but this is Goodson’s backfield.
Tight end, Sam LaPorta ($4,300) is the top pass catcher for Iowa. He turned eight targets into 83 yards in Week 1. Behind him, Tyrone Tracy ($4,600) and Charlie Jones ($3,000) were the next most active pass catcher. No one in the receiver room is particularly strong, but LaPorta and Jones are the best options.
Iowa State (25.25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 70.2 (85th)
Pass Rate – 45.96% (71st)
An annual tradition, Iowa State struggled against inferior competition in Week 1, defeating Northern Iowa 16-10. This team is middling in both pass rate and plays per game. They returned 11 starters on offense and nine on defense after significantly overachieving last year. This game has a 44.5-point total overall, making it one to forget.
Multi-year starter, Brock Purdy ($6,200) completed 21 of 26 passes for 199 yards in Week 1. Purdy is an excellent dual threat, putting up 58 yards rushing on the ground. Frustratingly, Iowa State insisted on smashing Breece Hall ($8,000) into the back of the offensive line, despite Purdy’s positive performance. This is a poor game environment, but Purdy has the skillset to be considered in GPPs.
Mentioned above, Iowa State likes to run Hall. Hall finished as an All-American last year and allegedly entered Week 1 banged up. Apparently he was still healthy enough to turn 23 carries into a woefully inefficient 70 yards. Hall also turned four targets into 31 yards through the air. Positively, Iowa State’s poor coaching means Hall has secure volume. At $8,000 in a poor environment, he is still among the top options at running back.
Mentioned above, Iowa State ignored the pass game for stretches in Week 1. The top two receivers are Xavier Hutchinson ($6,000) and Tarique Milton ($4,000). Hutchinson led the team in receiving last year and saw eight targets in Week 1. He turned that into 88 yards receiving. Milton is more of a burner, who missed most of 2020 due to injury. He turned four targets into 37 yards in Week 1. Elite tight end Charlie Kolar ($4,600) did not play in Week 1. He is tentatively expected back here. If healthy, Kolar is the top price-adjusted option in the offense.
Appalachian State vs. Miami
Appalachian State (22.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 71.3 (70th)
Pass Rate – 38.39% (115th)
Appalachian State knocked off East Carolina 33-19 in their opener. Despite losing their offensive coordinator, Appalachian State found replacement in Frank Ponce with familiarity with the program. Appalachian State figures to be slower, run-heavy again this year. However, as 9-point underdogs to Miami, they may be forced to throw more here.
Chase Brice ($7,200) will quarterback Appalachian State after previous stops at Clemson and Duke. Brice actually played well in his debut, completing 74.1% of his passes for 259 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Brice has solid dual-threat ability, which he usually erases by taking sacks. The step up in competition makes Brice a dicey play on FanDuel.
Appalachian State will use two running backs in Nate Noel ($6,200) and Camerun Peoples ($7,700). Noel out-carried Peoples 15-14. He also outgained him 126-100. Neither has a significant role in the pass game. They will split this backfield 50/50 also rendering those risky plays against superior competition.
Corey Sutton ($6,400) and Thomas Hennigan ($7,600) led Appalachian State with six and five targets, respectively. Hennigan reeled in the big plays, turning his five targets into 114 yards receiving. Sutton actually ran the most routes, making him a superior price-adjusted play. No one else ran a route on more than 38% of dropbacks.
Miami (31. Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 75.6 (33rd)
Pass Rate – 49.28% (50th)
Completely dismantled by Alabama in Week 1, Miami will look to right the ship as 9-point favorites over Appalachian State. Miami retained Rhett Lashlee as offensive coordinator, pointing to an uptempo, pass heavy approach this year. Miami returned 10 starters on offense and nine on defense.
D’Eriq King ($10,200) predictably struggled in his return from a December ACL tear against the country’s best defense in Alabama. King rushed nine times for 10 yards, suggesting he is mobile enough. His dual-threat ability is a major part of his game. King still completed 76.7% of his passes for 179 yards. He should be a much better play against a massive step down in competition. Unfortunately, he is still cost prohibitive on FanDuel.
Miami used both Cam’ron Harris ($8,100) and Donald Chaney ($5,300) last week. Harris carried 12 times for 37 yards, while Chaney recorded 23 yards on seven carries. This is a 50/50 committee, but both should have more appeal in GPPs against Appalachian State. Chaney is particularly interesting at a near-minimum price. Jaylan Knighton is suspended.
Oklahoma transfer Charleston Rambo ($6,700) led Miami with eight targets. He only managed 33 yards, but he also tied Key’Shawn Smith ($5,600) for the most routes run. Smith turned six targets into 40 yards receiving. Mike Harley ($8,300) got injured in the game but is “trending in the right direction” for this weekend. He was last year’s leading receiver and will play in the slot. Rambo is still the best value.
Texas vs. Arkansas
Texas (32 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 73.8 (44th) / 70.8 (75th) – Sarkisian #’s
Pass Rate – 49.86% (42nd) / 48.26% (58th)
Texas performed well in their first game under Steve Sarkisian, covering the spread against Louisiana. Texas ran 71 plays and passed 41% of the time in their opener. Sarkisian will play right around league average in tempo and pass rate, living through efficient play-calling.
Hudson Card ($9,700) completed 67% of his passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns in his debut. Interestingly, Card did not even use his mobility, finishing with negative-1 yards rushing. Card has legit 4.5 speed, so this upside is still there. Card gets another uptempo spot against Arkansas, making him a solid DFS play.
Bijan Robinson ($11,200) turned 20 carries into 104 yards rushing, while adding another 73 yards on four targets. He is cost prohibitive, but perhaps the top running back on the slate regardless.
Texas featured Jordan Whittington ($8,500) in the slot and Joshua Moore ($8,600) out wide. Whittington turned his seven targets into 113 yards receiving, while Moore managed just 17 yards on five targets. They are still the top two options, with Xavier Worthy ($5,300) ranking third. Worthy participated in 90% of the routes, but only saw two targets. Troy Omeire did not play in this game, but Worthy looks like a secure punt play for now.
Arkansas (25 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 71.2 (71st)
Pass Rate – 44.66% (83rd)
Struggling with efficiency under their new quarterback, Arkansas had to overcome Rice in the second half. Arkansas still has Sam Pittman and Kendal Briles at head coach and OC. Briles typically likes to play slightly above average in pace with a balanced attack. Efficiency has limited his teams to this point. Last week, Arkansas ran 67 plays and passed 34% of the time.
K.J. Jefferson ($9,900) led Arkansas to their come from behind win last week. Jefferson struggled as a passer, completing 57% of his passes for 128 yards, a touchdown and an interception. However, he displayed elite dual-threat ability with 89 yards rushing on the ground. This mobility still makes him a solid DFS play.
In the backfield, Trelon Smith ($8,500) continues to see a vast majority of the work. He carried 22 times for 102 yards. Raheim Sanders ($5,300) mixed in for seven carries, but this is Smith’s job.
Predictably, Treylon Burks ($7,500) led Arkansas receivers with nine targets and 42 yards. WR2 Tyson Morris ($6,600) saw only four targets, but also managed 42 yards. De’Vion Warren ($5,500) will be the WR3. He only saw four targets, but he ran the third most routes. Burks is cheap enough to earn priority for Arkansas here.
North Carolina State vs. Mississippi State
North Carolina State (28.5 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 72.2 (60th)
Pass Rate – 49.88% (41st)
North Carolina State kicked of 2021 with a 45-0 win over South Florida. This team has continuity everywhere and returned their starting quarterback from injury. With nine starters on offense and 10 on defense returning, this team should give Mississippi State problems.
North Carolina State did not need to unleash Devin Leary ($7,900) in their opener, but he still passed for 232 yards and two touchdowns on 26 attempts. Leary is not mobile, but this should be a pace up spot against Mississippi State. He is a fine, stackable quarterback for GPPs.
Zonovan Knight ($8,000) and Ricky Person ($8,600) split the backfield 50/50. Person managed 163 yards to Knight’s 105 in Week 1. However, Knight led the team in rushing last year and has a larger sample as the more efficient back. As the cheaper back, Knight draws a slight preference. They are essentially the same play overall.
Emeka Emezie ($7,100) led the team with six targets and 71 yards receiving. He is the best stacking option with Leary, followed by Devin Carter ($6,000). Carter turned three targets into 51 yards receiving. Thayer Thomas ($5,800) is a distant WR3 and not worth considering when Carter is only slightly more expensive.
Mississippi State (27 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 72.3 (59th)
Pass Rate – 74.34% (1st)
Mike Leach and Mississippi State picked up a 1-point victory over Louisiana Tech in Week 1. Leach ran his traditional air raid offense, passing the ball 72% of the time. Expect the same here against North Carolina State.
Will Rogers ($9,500) is not mobile whatsoever, but his position as the starting quarterback for Mississippi State’s air raid offense is valuable. Rogers threw 48 times for 390 yards last week. He will backdoor his way to 300 yards on most slates with volume alone. He is a fine play.
Coming as a bit of a surprise, Jo’Quavious Marks ($9,400) handled vast majority of the running back work after splitting with Dillon Johnson ($5,300) down the stretch last year. When condensed to one player, this workload can be valuable. Marks turned 12 carries into 71 yards, while turning 11 targets into 27 yards. He is a fine play.
Makai Polk ($6,500) ran a route on 98% of dropbacks. The next closest was Jamire Calvin ($7,700) at 65%. Polk also turned 10 targets into 57 yards. He is the easy play here with Calvin coming in overpriced. From there Jaden Walley ($8,100), Austin William ($6,200), Lideatrick Griffin ($5,500) and Rara Thomas ($5,000) ran routes on 63%, 58%, 56% and 46% of dropbacks. They are all dart throws with varying degrees of viability based on price.
Missouri vs. Kentucky
Missouri (25.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 72.9 (54th)
Pass Rate – 51.85% (31st)
Missouri beat Central Michigan 34-24 in Week 1. Too close for comfort, Missouri continues their rebuild under former Appalachian State head coach Eliah Drinkwitz. This team has actually played above average offense in terms of tempo and pass rate under Drinkwitz. This game has sneaky shootout potential.
Connor Bazelak ($7,400) is the quarterback for Missouri. Bazelak is not mobile, but he completed 65.5% of his passes for 257 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Bazelak draws a much more difficult matchup here, making him harder to trust in stacks.
With Larry Rountree out of the picture, Tyler Badie ($9,700) took over a full workload for Missouri. He carried 26 times for 207 yards, while adding 40 yards on four targets. He is a strong play based on volume.
Missouri used Keke Chism ($6,200) as their main receiver, with Tauskie Dove ($5,800) running a route on just 60% of dropbacks. Mookie Cooper ($5,700) was banged up after limited snaps. He is the favorite for WR3 duties, but the WR3 spot is unsettled. Cooper led the team in targets, despite only running a route on 29% of dropbacks.
Kentucky (30.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 63.2 (118th)
Pass Rate – 37.12% (117th)
Kentucky blew out Louisiana-Monroe in Week 1. Mark Stoops is head coach, but he hired Liam Coen to coordinate the offense. Coen has ties to Sean McVay. Kentucky drastically improved their tempo and pass rate from a season ago. In Week 1, they ran 70 plays and passed 53% of the time. This offense should be more explosive this year.
Will Levis ($9,500) played well in his Kentucky debut. He passed for 367 yards and four touchdowns, while rushing for negative-6 yards. Levis displayed solid mobility early in his career with Penn State, so this looks like an anomaly. Levis is a strong price-adjusted option.
Chris Rodriguez ($9,500) carried 19 times for 125 yards, while Kavosiey Smoke ($5,600) mixed in for 24 yards on five carries. Rodriguez is a strong play as the feature back here.
Wan’Dale Robinson ($8,700) played limited snaps after getting banged up in Week 1. Healthy enough to play here, he will function as the WR1. He turned seven targets into 125 yards before leaving last week. Josh Ali ($7,900) and Isaiah Epps ($6,300) will be the other starters. Ali turned eight targets into 136 yards, while Epps recorded 83 yards on four targets. All of the Kentucky receivers are options in stacks.
Washington vs. Michigan
Washington (20.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 67.0 (102nd)
Pass Rate – 41.8% (100th)
One of the biggest upsets in College Football, Washington lost to Montana in Week 1. Washington plays inefficient offense, ranking outside the top 100 in pass rate and plays per game under second-year offensive coordinator John Donovan. They returned 10 starters on offense and eight on defense, but most of these players possessed questionable talent to begin with.
Dylan Morris ($) completed 58.7% of his passes for 4.9 yards per attempt and three interceptions. He played without his top three pass catchers in Terrell Bynum, Rome Odunze, Ja’Lynn Polk and Jalen McMillan. Polk is out for the year and the rest are week-to-week. Things are not going to get easier for Morris, who also lacks mobility.
Washington actually committed to a lead back in Richard Newton ($6,700) in Week 1. He carried 17 times for 62 yards, while seeing five targets in the pass game. His volume makes him a solid play.
Tight end Cade Otton ($7,800) led the team with 11 targets and 82 yards. Taj Davis ($6,300) ranked second with 10 targets for 59 yards. Giles Jackson ($6,300) and Devin Culp ($5,700) will be the next men up. Jackson had eight targets, but only 15 yards receiving. Otton and Davis are the best options.
Michigan (27.75 Implied Total)
Plays/Game – 65.5 (112th)
Pass Rate – 56.23% (10th)
Michigan picked up a blowout win over Western Michigan in Week 1. Jim Harbaugh and Josh Gattis remain in place among the coaching staff. Michigan returned 10 starters on offense and seven on defense. While Michigan underperformed last year, the Wolverines recruit at such a high level that they can out-talent most opponents. That should be the case here against Washington.
Michigan barely used Cade McNamara ($7,600) in their dismantling of Western Michigan. He only attempted 11 passes, keeping him unknown. He does not have elite mobility but could be an option in GPPs based purely on uncertainty.
The running backs will split time between Blake Corum ($6,900), Hassan Haskins ($7,300) and Donovan Edwards ($5,100). The committee makes them all tough to trust, but Corum and Haskins recorded 111 yards and 70 yards, respectively, last week.
Ronnie Bell is out for the year. Cornelius Johnson ($7,400) and Mike Sainristil ($5,200) will now operate as the top two options. The WR3 is unsettled, but A.J. Henning ($6,200) may be an option. Tight end Erick All ($5,300) actually led the team with three targets, but this team is in flux. Johnson and Sainristil are the safest options.
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