PITCHERS
Logan Allen [L – SDP]
Allen has looked sharp in each of his first two major-league starts, combining to pitch 13 two-run innings with ten strikeouts and four walks. He’s struck out only 20 percent of total batters faced, but has generated 11.7 percent swinging strikes and 17-plus percent whiffs on both his changeup and slider. Steamer projects Allen for a strong 8.80 K/9 and a 4.15 WHIP, but also 3.75 BB/9 and 1.20 HR/9. Walks have plagued Allen at times in Triple-A, but the Giants don’t walk at a high clip and strike out at the 13th highest rate vs. left-handed arms (22.8%). They rank dead last in wOBA (.285), ISO (.136) and 29th in wRC+ (76) vs. southpaws, and own a paltry 3.5-run implied total tonight at Petco Park. Allen’s Padres are -161 ML favorites, too, which is one of the reasons he’s projected to carry heavy ownership into Monday’s abbreviated slate despite the elevated price tag.
So long as confidence issues don’t creep back into Allen’s head, he should be poised for another strong start. It’s also worth noting that Allen is averaging only 13.7 pitches per innings over his first two outings, which should allow him to pitch deep into games against low-octane offenses like San Francisco.
Tyler Mahle [R – CIN]
Mahle has been markedly better vs. same-handed hitters this season, striking them out at 29.2 percent while allowing only 0.75 HR/9 with a 1.08 WHIP and 2.81 xFIP. He hasn’t enjoyed the same success against lefties, however, recording only 18.3 percent strikeouts with a .281 ISO, 2.86 HR/9 and a 5.23 xFIP. Mahle will face a number of potent left-handed hitters tonight, including Christian Yelich, Mike Moustakas, Yasmani Grandal. Eric Thames and Ben Gamel should also be penciled into the Brewers’ lineup. Travis Shaw was optioned to Triple-A before the weekend, but that probably hurts Mahle given the one-time power hitter’s 32.5 percent K-rate vs. right-handed arms in 2019.
Mahle is projected to have monster ownership across the board (DK: 38%, FD: 21%, Y!: 33%), due in part to his discounted price tag and Milwaukee’s 23.9 percent K-rate vs. right-handed arms. That said, the Brewers boast the league’s sixth highest ISO vs. RHP (.200), and own a robust 5.1-run implied total inside the homer-happy Great American Ballpark. I’m more interested in Milwaukee’s left-handed power than Mahle, although both will be popular on Monday night.
Trevor Williams [R – PIT]
Williams draws a tough matchup with the Cubs, but he’ll have an advantage inside the spacious PNC Park, and Chicago is at least striking out at the league’s 13th highest clip vs. right-handed arms (22.7%). What makes this matchup appealing for Williams is the amount of righties he’ll face; Chicago’s only left-handed presence is Anthony Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber and Jason Heyward. Williams is striking righties out at 23.3 percent with only three percent walks, while generating a strong 13.9 percent swinging strikes. His .302 wOBA and 1.06 BABIP are also encouraging. Chicago does own a hefty 5-run implied total tonight, but only two teams on this slate have a total below 4.5 (SFG, BAL). Williams is most appealing at $32 on Yahoo and $7,200 on FanDuel, but is a perfectly viable pivot away from the even more popular Mahle ($7,500) at $8,100 on DraftKings.
Ryan Yarbrough [L – TB]
Yarbrough’s workload has been all over the map since being recalled from Triple-A back in May. He’s made eight appearances and four starts over that span, with pitch counts and innings pitched looking like this: 99/7.1 (GS), 53/3.2 (LR), 92/7 (GS), 110/7.2 (GS), 90/6 (GS), 42/3 (LR), 91/6 (LR) and 42/3 (LR). Of the four long relief outings, Yarbrough is averaging only 3.9 innings and 57 pitches, while going more than 3.2 innings and 53 pitches only once. Interestingly, he’s also averaging 15.2 DKPT per game in those relief appearances.
Pitching is ugly on this five game slate, and the Orioles own the lowest implied total (3.3) of any team scheduled. It’s actually not crazy to think Yarbrough could out-produce most if not all of the comparably priced arms on Monday, and his Rays are slate-high -250 ML favorites inside the pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field. There are very few times you’d legitimately consider deploying Yarbrough in any format given his current restrictions, but this could be a risk worth taking at $6,500 on DraftKings.
Jeff Samardzija [R – SFG]
Samardzija is projected to be the most popular pitcher on DraftKings (44%), FanDuel (27%) and second highest owned arm on Yahoo (45%) behind Logan Allen (50%). That’s a lot of faith placed in a veteran righty who owns a sub-20 percent K-rate and 5.09 xFIP on the season. Samardzija does have a few things working in his favor, though; he’s allowing a slightly above league average 5.8 percent barreled balls per plate appearance, and is holding same-handed hitters to a .299 wOBA and .163 ISO with a respectable 1.14 WHIP. He’s producing a respectable 10.7 percent swinging strikes vs. righties and owns a not-terrible .315/.181 xwOBA/xISO against them in 2019.
The reason Samardzija is gaining so much traction tonight is his matchup against the Padres, who are striking out at a league-high 26.4 percent clip vs. RHP while sporting a bottom ten wOBA (.315) and wRC+ (95). He won’t be pitching in Oracle Park, but Petco Park still favors pitchers and San Diego owns the third lowest implied total (4.5) on Monday’s five-game slate. It’s worth noting, however, that Samardzija is allowing 1.94 HR/9 on the road this season, and the Padres’ .195 ISO vs. righties ranks tenth highest in baseball. San Diego bats should be owned around 5-6 percent on DraftKings, and make for a great contrarian stack against the night’s most popular arm.
Adbert Alzolay [R – CHC]
Alzolay pitched 32 innings at Triple-A this season, striking out 36.5 percent of batters with an elite 16.3 percent swinging strikes. He’s punching out batters at 26.5 percent with 10.6 percent swinging strikes across two major-league starts, and is getting some excellent early results on his curveball (17% Whf), which profiles as a plus pitch, and changeup (20%), which profiles below average. Alzolay is sitting 94 MPH on his fastball, and is throwing the pitch 55 percent of the time.
The problem with Alzolay is his pitch count; the 24-year-old righty threw only 55 pitches in his debut and 87 in his next start, but apparently “hit a wall” according to Joe Maddon. That said, he’s no riskier than Yarbrough, and still has a longer leash. Pittsburgh doesn’t swing and miss much, though, punching out at the league’s third lowest clip vs. right-handed arms (18.3%). I still have no problem taking a flier on Alzolay based solely on low ownership and a discounted salary (DK: 16%/$6,400, Y!: 9%/$28).
HITTERS
STACKS
Rangers (5.9) vs. Suarez [LHP]
The Rangers have been dreadful vs. left-handed pitching this season, but Suarez could remedy those issues if just for a day. The Angels’ young southpaw has already coughed up six home runs across only 21 innings, and is inducing a miserable 27.4 percent ground balls in the process. That shouldn’t do him any favors in Arlington, where temperatures will once again be approaching 90 degrees at Globe Life Park. The Rangers’ 5.9-run implied total is the highest mark on Monday night.
Brewers (5.1) @ Mahle [RHP]
See Tyler Mahle.
Padres (4.5) vs. Samardzija [RHP]
See Jeff Samardzija.
Honorable Mention: Reds (5) vs. Houser [RHP]; Cubs (5) @ Williams [RHP]
