FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo MLB DFS Deep Dive – Monday 7/29

PITCHERS

Chris Paddack [R – SDP]

Paddack draws a strong matchup with the Orioles, who have shown some offensive improvement over the last couple months but still rank bottom ten in wOBA (.315) and wRC+ (95) vs. right-handed arms. Their 23.1 percent K-rate ranks 12th highest in baseball, while their 7.4 percent walk rate is fifth from the bottom. We don’t have a line on this game yet, but Paddack should be one of the heaviest favorites on Monday night and Baltimore should own a bottom three implied run total at Petco Park.

Paddack is reasonably priced on DraftKings ($10,200) and significantly underpriced on FanDuel ($8,900). His home meeting with Baltimore is far more favorable than that of Patrick Corbin [L – WAS] (vs. ATL) and Caleb Smith [L – MIA] (vs. ARI), of whom both are priced atop the player pool tonight.

The only aspect of this matchup that doesn’t suit Paddack particularly well is the amount of left-handed hitters the Orioles will have penciled into their lineup. That said, there are plenty of strikeouts in this lineup when you look back to the start of 2018; Chris Davis (37.3%), Chance Sisco (34%), Stevie Wilkerson (26.2%), Renato Nunez (25.3%), Jonathan Villar (24.%), Jace Peterson (24.2%) and Trey Mancini (23.3%) could help to mask Paddack’s underwhelming 21.5 percent K-rate vs. left-handed bats.

Sonny Gray [R – CIN]

We can expect to see five or six lefties in the Pirates lineup tonight, which bodes well for Gray who is punching opposite-handed hitters out more than 30 percent of the time in 2019. Pittsburgh is a very low strikeout team, but they’re also huge road dogs (+167) and own the third lowest implied total (4.0) on Monday night. Gray has been remarkably consistent this season, and has done an excellent job of limiting power inside the hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark (5 HR) thanks to a 55 percent ground ball rate. Among all pitchers on this seven-game slate, Gray ranks first in xFIP (3.35), second in K-rate (28.7%) and second in HR/9 allowed (0.91). I don’t love the spot against Pittsburgh, but sometimes talent supersedes matchup, especially with Gray being respectably priced on DraftKings ($9,400) and FanDuel ($9,200).

Caleb Smith [L – MIA]

Much like Gray, Caleb Smith won’t have an easy path to success tonight. The Diamondbacks’ active roster has smoked left-handed pitching this season to the tune of a .355 wOBA (3rd), .217 ISO (4th) and 118 wRC+ (3rd), while striking out at a very modest 20.2 percent clip (22nd). That said, Smith boasts a slate-high 31 percent K-rate (Sonny Gray is second at 28.7%) and ranks second in both swinging strike rate (14.1%) and called plus swinging strikes (31%). Furthermore, Smith has excelled inside the spacious Marlins park where he’s surrendered only three home runs (0.67 HR/9) and owns a stellar 3.47 xFIP across 40.1 innings pitched.

You’re essentially paying for talent with a pitcher who’s generating 27.8 percent whiffs/swing on his four-seamer, 32.3 percent on his changeup and 37.3 percent on his slider in 2019. Smith is striking righties out at a superb 32.3 percent clip, and should face at least seven of them tonight. Despite the difficult matchup, Smith makes for a clear high-ceiling option across the industry.

Jaime Barria [R – LAA]

Barria is throwing a ton of sliders to left-handed hitters this season, and the results have been surprisingly strong. The pitch is generating 14.3 percent swinging strikes and 33.9 percent whiffs/swing vs. LHH with a microscoping 0.78 ISO allowed in 2019. Barria throws this same pitch nearly 50 percent of the time to same-handed hitters, and should be getting better results, but it’s been hammered for a .440/.292 wOBA/ISO with a .351/.200 xwOBA/xISO thus far. Last season, Barria’s slider was much better vs. righties, and we can only assume it will improve going forward. That said, he’s striking righties out only 12.2 percent of the time (90 BF) while lefties are going down swinging at a massive 32.5 percent clip (80 BF)!

Fortunately for Barria, his opponent’s handedness shouldn’t matter on Monday, as the Tigers are an absolutely putrid offensive team from top to bottom. On the year, Detroit is striking out at a league-high 26.3 percent clip vs. right-handed pitchers, while ranking dead last in wOBA (.285), wRC+ (75) and 29th in ISO (.148). Barria is a Goliath -230 favorite at home, where the Tigers own an underwhelming 4.1-run implied total on the night. Barria will rightfully be one of the chalkier pitching options on this seven-game slate.

Merrill Kelly [R – ARI]

Kelly owns a pedestrian 21.6 percent K-rate vs. right-handed hitters this season, and has allowed more power than preferred (.201 ISO, 1.69 HR/9). He’ll face a garbage Marlins team on Monday, though, that ranks dead last in ISO (.127) and strikes out at a top seven clip vs. RHP (24.3%). Kelly also draws a strong park shift from Chase Field to Marlins Park which ranks dead last for right-handed power according to FanGraphs.com. While he isn’t a high upside pitcher and doesn’t have a ton of win equity with Caleb Smith toeing the rubber for Miami, Kelly still has the third lowest implied total against him (3.9), and should induce enough ground balls and weak contact to walk away with a solid performance. 

Honorable Mention: Jordan Lyles [R – PIT] @ CIN

HITTERS

STACKS

Dodgers (6.6) @ Gray [RHP]

Jon Gray is a good pitcher, but tonight’s matchup with the Dodgers at Coors Field should be a hellish experience for the 27-year-old righty. Gray has been surprisingly efficient at home given the conditions, but the Dodgers have absolutely decimated right-handed pitching for a .350 wOBA, .221 ISO and 119 wRC+ this season. Temperatures will be eclipsing 90 degrees in Colorado, and winds will be blowing 13 MPH out to center field. This spells danger for Gray and the entire Rockies pitching staff.

Angels (6.5) vs. Zimmermann [RHP]

The Angels should slaughter Zimmermann tonight, as they have carved apart right-handed pitching all season long. Detroit’s veteran right-hander is allowing a .400/.193 wOBA/ISO to lefties and a .358/.212 wOBA/ISO to righties while striking them out at 16.3 and 14.1 percent, respectively. The only downside to stacking the Angels is the bulk of their best hitters are all eligible at the outfield position.

Reds (5.6) vs. Lyles [RHP]

Lyles’ biggest issue this season has been the long ball, as he’s coughing up a whopping 1.75 HR/9 on the year. Lefties have been particularly strong against Lyles, producing a monster .282 ISO and 2.01 HR/9. Great American Ballpark won’t do Lyles any favors, either, as it plays heavily in favor of power and should see temperatures close to 90 degrees on Monday. Outside of Eugenio Suarez, the Reds are not an expensive team.

Nationals (5.3) vs. Keuchel [LHP]

Keuchel owns a dismal 9.3 percent swinging strike rate and 23.1 percent CSW rate this season, so forgive me if I’m not sold by last week’s 12-strikeout gem against the Royals. His fastball velocity is sitting below 88 MPH and he’s allowing a less than stellar 6.6 percent barreled balls per plate appearance. Keuchel’s high ground ball rate will bail him out of a lot of trouble, but tonight’s meeting with Washington could give him fits.

The Nationals strike out at a bottom five clip vs. left-handed pitchers (19.7%), and rank top five in wOBA (.352) and wRC+ (115). Their .205 ISO ranks a respectable ninth. Keuchel is ceding 1.30 HR/9 to righties and will have to face a stable of power-laden bats in the Nation’s capital on Monday.

Honorable Mention: Rockies (6) vs. Maeda [RHP]

Author
Dave "Loughy" Loughran has been a fixture in the daily fantasy community since not long after its inception, quitting his career as a Drug and Alcohol therapist to become a full-time DFS analyst, player and media personality in 2014. Loughy is the host of "Awesemo Radio" on SiriusXM Fantasy, qualified for the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Football World Championship, and was featured in the Washington Post and other publications for his success as a player. You can find him on Twitter at @Loughy_D where he'll likely be ranting about the miserable life of a Philadelphia sports fan, using "fella" in almost every tweet, or via email at [email protected].

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