PITCHERS
Sonny Gray [R – CIN]
Gray is the priciest he’s been all season, but it’ll be hard to avoid him in this juicy matchup with the Marlins on an extremely weak pitching slate. I was away from work for a week, but I see not much has changed upon my return; the Marlins are still ranked dead last in wOBA (.280), ISO (.122) and wRC+ (73) vs. right-handed pitching, while striking out at the league’s fourth highest clip (25.5%). They own the lowest implied total on tonight’s slate (3.4) and are hitting inside one of the most pitcher-friendly venues around.
Gray is striking both-handed hitters out above 29 percent this season, while ceding virtually no power in the process. His 1.12 WHIP and 3.54 xFIP lead all pitchers on Monday, and he is the only arm with a K-rate north of 23 percent. Gray won’t come cheap, but he’s worth the top-shelf salary — especially on a night where only three teams have run totals of five or higher. Outside of New York, Cincinnati is the heaviest favorite on the evening (-153).
Dustin May [R – LAD]
May could’ve actually been an appealing mid-range option tonight had there not been concerns about his pitch count. The rookie right-hander’s last appearance was out of the bullpen last Sunday (8/18) and he hasn’t pitched since. He’ll start tonight against San Diego, though it’s unclear how long of a leash he’ll be given. Dave Roberts stated that May is going to make another relief appearance in a couple days, so we could see him limited to 50-60 pitches tonight if “a couple days” means Wednesday.
It’s unfortunate, actually, because May faces a Padres team that leads the league in strikeout rate vs. right-handed arms (26.6%) and ranks 27th in wRC+ (80). May hasn’t been a strikeout machine through 19 major-league innings, but this type of matchup should exaggerate his upside. It’s worth monitoring any updates here, as May could be in play depending on how deep he’s allowed to go. He’s currently projected to have five percent ownership on DraftKings, three percent on FanDuel and six percent on Yahoo. The Padres’ 4.2-run implied total is the third lowest mark on Monday night.
J.A. Happ [L – NYY]
Happ’s 2019 campaign has been anything but encouraging. Through 25 starts the veteran southpaw has allowed a whopping 31 home runs and has struck out only 19 percent of batters faced. It’s his lowest K-rate since 2013 and by far the worst home run rate of his career (2.16). Here’s the thing, though; the Mariners are a highly underwhelming baseball team, striking out at a top five clip vs. LHP (24.3%) and owning the second lowest implied total (3.9) on Monday night. Happ is a slate-best -205 favorite inside the spacious T-Mobile Park, and the Yankees boast a slate-high 5.7-run total against Tommy Milone and Co.
Happ’s struggles with the long ball should be mitigated by this favorable park shift, and he should greatly benefit from the laundry list of left-handers scattered throughout the Mariners’ lineup tonight. Mitch Haniger suffered a recent setback and has no timetable for return, Domingo Santana still isn’t swinging a bat and Tim Beckham is serving an 80-game suspension. Here is the projected lineup for Seattle tonight (it should tell you all you need to know about Happ’s fantasy prospects at a discounted cost); Tim Lopez, J.P. Crawford, Austin Nola, Kyle Seager, Tom Murphy, Dan Vogelbach, Mallex Smith, Keon Broxton, Dee Gordon.
Joe Musgrove [R – PIT] and Tyler Beede [R – SFG]
Musgrove and Beede are cheap enough to gain traction on a bad pitching slate, and gain traction is exactly what they’ve done. Both of these middling right-handers are projected for 30-plus percent ownership on DraftKings, where Musgrove is $6,000 and Beede is $5,100. I have more interest in the latter for a few obvious reasons: first, he’s cheaper; Beede is close to minimum salary, and is no riskier than Musgrove at a discounted cost. Second, Beede has a distinct advantage pitching at Oracle Park, compared to Musgrove who draws a huge negative shift from PNC to Citizens Bank. The Diamondbacks’ implied run total (4.3) is also lower than the Phillies’ (4.8). Neither pitcher draws a spectacular matchup, but that’s exactly why I’d rather take a shot on the cheaper option in a better park. It’s really that simple.
Pablo Lopez [R – MIA]
Lopez was enjoying an impressive season before a shoulder injury sidelined him in mid-June. He’s projected to have pretty significant ownership tonight, though, which is interesting given the near certainty that he’ll be limited to around 80 pitches. Lopez didn’t throw more than 70 pitches in any of his four rehab appearances with the New Orleans Baby Cakes (great name), and hasn’t thrown from a major-league mound in over two months. He’s striking 23.3 percent of batters out this season, however, and has been especially solid against same-handed bats (27.8 K%).
Ultimately, you’re hoping Lopez can get through five strong innings against the Reds, who own the sixth highest K-rate vs. RHP (25.4%) and rank 24th in wRC+ (89). He’ll have the park advantage in Miami, and the Reds own a very modest 4.2-run implied total on the road. It’s simply a matter of how many pitches Lopez will be allowed to throw in his return. He isn’t worth considering as the second highest priced pitcher on FanDuel.
HITTERS
STACKS
Yankees (5.7) @ Milone [LHP]
New York unsurprisingly boasts the highest total on Monday’s slate (5.7), facing Tommy Milone in a long relief role at T-Mobile Park. This isn’t a friendly park for opposing hitters, but the amount of power in these Yankee bats should mitigate that concern. Their active roster ranks fourth in wOBA (.358), ISO (.226) and wRC+ (123) vs. left-handed pitching, and despite all of their injuries still boasts one of the most imposing lineups in all of baseball. Milone is allowing a .241 ISO and 1.92 HR/9 to right-handed hitters in 2019.
Brewers (5.1) vs. Wainwright [RHP]
Wainwright has been better this season than many of us would’ve imagined, but he could be in for some trouble tonight. Milwaukee has decimated right-handed pitching to the tune of a .339 wOBA (6th), .208 ISO (6th) and 108 wRC+ (7th). Miller Park is one of the most homer-friendly venues around, and the Brewers boast the third highest implied run total on the night. On the season, Wainwright is allowing a .227 wOBA and 1.71 HR/9 to lefty bats.
Honorable Mention: Athletics (5.3) @ Keller [RHP]; Phillies (4.8) vs. Musgrove [RHP]
