The 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational, better known as the Florida U.S. Open Bay Hill fought back today in Round 3. The strategy of picking golfers that went off early was the way to go, as even par was a great score on the day. The problem was choosing the right ones that went off early; a few good calls in Scottie Scheffler, Sungjae Im and Thomas Pieters were nullified by picks like Rory Sabatini, who ended up withdrawing. So we’ll try and nail all of the PGA DFS picks for Round 4 DFS golf lineups.
PGA DFS Golf Picks Today: Round 4 Arnold Palmer Invitational
Round 3 Recap
With the scoring average checking in north of 74.15, the course just wasn’t yielding that many birdie opportunities, as the winds kicked up as expected around noon. Those that went out early had the better chances to score, as only one golfer that started the day in the top 10 shot under-par, Billy Horschel, and only one other shot even-par — Talor Gooch. That gave plenty of chances for golfers to move into a place where they could win the tournament, including the aforementioned Scheffler and Gary Woodland. Woodland seems to be regaining form here in Florida after a bad stretch of golf that’s been going on for almost two years now. After a tough close to his second round, Chris Kirk also regained form, parlaying an eagle on the fourth hole into a four-under 68.
A few other notable rounds came from Corey Conners, Nick Watney, Christiaan Bezuidenhout and Graeme McDowell. All shot a three-under 67s.
Arnold Palmer Invitational Rounds 1-3 Stat Recap
Strokes Gained Off the Tee
- K-H Lee
- Jon Rahm
- Brendan Steele
- Padraig Harrington
- Cameron Young
Strokes Gained Approach
- Martin Laird
- Scottie Scheffler
- Paul Casey
- Charles Howell III
- Talor Gooch
Strokes Gained Around the Green.
- Lucas Herbert
- Brendon Todd
- Graeme McDowell
- Sebastian Munoz
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Strokes Gained Putting
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Sungjae Im
- Nick Watney
- Tyrell Hatton
- J.J. Spaun
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With the addition of finish points added to the player’s score for Round 4, it nullifies the element of teeing off earlier on in the day a bit. Also, the wind was relatively docile on Saturday morning, and that isn’t expected to be the case either, with winds averaging about 10 mph at 7 a.m. and 14 mph starting at around 10 a.m.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,800): A lackluster couple of rounds to open up the tournament was put in the past for today’s round as the tall South African got himself back into the mix with a three-under 69. It was primarily due to his short game, where he gained a combined five strokes, or just shy of, on the day. That’s his MO, however, and something we like to see when rostering him. Another stellar day with those clubs and he could sneak into the top 10 for the second straight year here.
- Cameron Young ($8,100): Young didn’t have his best stuff today, losing strokes against the field with his putter, his around-the-green game, and his approaches. But, one thing it did do is pushed him down the leaderboard, likely out of most gamers’ minds, and will get him an earlier tee time for tomorrow. His off-the-tee game is so good that it should yield plenty of chances to setup quality birdie looks. That’s something we want on our side. He’s a low-owned, high-upside play for the final round.
- Troy Merritt ($6,700): Over the first two rounds, Merritt needed his iron play to pick up, and he’d be right here on the first page of the leaderboard. Well, they did today, but the other parts of his game didn’t, struggling off the tee and around the green. But, in Round 1, he gained 1.26 strokes off the tee, and in Round 2, he gained 2.78 strokes around the green. So, he has done it already this week, and now he needs to put them all together in the final round. He’ll be on the first page of the leaderboard at the end of the day if he does. Looking for someone even cheaper than Merritt? Look at Nick Watney($6,000), who is playing well again and sits in 12th place after three rounds.
- Alex Smalley ($6,600): Initially, this last spot was going to go to Taylor Pendrith ($7,100), but his iron play this week has been very poor and likely caps his upside a bit. Although his off-the-tee game and putter had been hot, one needs good iron play to move up the board. That hasn’t been the problem for Smalley this week, gaining strokes in two of three while losing .01 on Saturday. He lost 3.5 strokes putting on Saturday, which helped push him way down the leaderboard. So, if the trend of early morning rounds are better than those that tee off later, Smalley is a good bet to be low-owned and put up a good score if his ball-striking stats remain.
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