Today’s main slate features 12 games beginning at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s get into the top home run picks, pitchers, stacks and low-owned hitters for MLB DFS and fantasy baseball tournaments on Tuesday, June 6.
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Top Home Run Ratings & Predictions
Using a model based on a blend of several predictive statistics for the batter-pitcher matchup we will give each team one of the top choices from their projected lineup. However, the pick included below will not always be the actual top-rated player, particularly when there is an obvious star who rates atop his team’s lineup each day. Check out all of Awesemo’s top-notch baseball content and free MLB DFS picks.
Scale: 5-10 Average; 10-20 Good; 20-25 Very Good; 25+ Great
Arizona Diamondbacks: n/a
Atlanta Braves: Adam Duvall — 7.76
Baltimore Orioles: Anthony Santander — 7.20
Boston Red Sox: J.D. Martinez — 12.28
Chicago Cubs: Ian Happ — 11.87
Chicago White Sox: Luis Robert — 6.06
Colorado Rockies: Randal Grichuk — 4.73
Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson — 10.38
Houston Astros: Alex Bregman — 5.52
Kansas City Royals: Bobby Witt Jr. — 5.38
Los Angeles Angels: Shohei Ohtani — 6.42
Los Angeles Dodgers: Cody Bellinger — 6.18
Milwaukee Brewers: Hunter Renfroe — 4.02
Minnesota Twins: Max Kepler — 8.86
New York Mets: Pete Alonso — 11.72
New York Yankees: Giancarlo Stanton — 15.92
Oakland Athletics: Chad Pinder — 5.61
Philadelphia Phillies: Kyle Schwarber — 16.99
Pittsburgh Pirates: Bryan Reynolds — 9.56
San Diego Padres: Eric Hosmer — 6.18
San Francisco Giants: Joc Pederson — 5.51
Seattle Mariners: Abraham Toro — 7.03
St. Louis Cardinals: Nolan Arenado — 11.53
Tampa Bay Rays: Ji-man Choi — 4.92
Toronto Blue Jays: George Springer — 7.54
Power Index
This is intended to capture the full range of home run upside for each team. It is not meant as a stack ranking and does not account for pricing or popularity — only home run potential. The first column is the average rating for the full projected lineup and the second is for the top six hitters in the projected lineup.
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MLB DFS Weather Update: Postponements & Risk Assessment
The weather for the large Tuesday main slate sees just one game in jeopardy of getting wet. The matchup between the Tigers and Pirates is looking like it will play in full, with the chances of precipitation dropping into the 25-30% range. Keep an eye on this game, as anything can happen, but planning for it to be on the board seems like the correct approach if one had to decide in the early afternoon.
MLB DFS Picks Today: Pitchers, Best Stacks & Low-Owned Plays
This section will feature a few standout MLB DFS spots and teams to look at for potential plays on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Be sure to check out the Awesemo MLB DFS Ownership Projections for critical updates and monitor the top stacks tool throughout the day for changes.
On the Hill
The loaded Tuesday pitching slate has an option for every type of approach to the slate. Interested in expensive aces at high popularity and probability ratings? Allow us to introduce you to Carlos Rodon and Justin Verlander. Maybe you like that level of quality, but want to save a few dollars and get a newer model? Well, the slate includes excellent young arms like Kyle Wright, Tarik Skubal and Alek Manoah, all of whom land near the peak of the Top Pitchers tool at upper-tier salaries across the industry. Kyle Bradish, Jeffrey Springs, Michael Kopech and Garrett Whitlock could all qualify for that range on any given slate, they all check-in at a discount to their peers while projecting for similar upside and probability of success. If you find yourself less inclined to chase high ceilings and more interested in a sturdy floor and veteran reliability, Jameson Taillon and Yu Darvish could deliver from the middle of the board, while German Marquez is highly capable at a very low price, but perhaps with more of a tiger-trap than a sturdy floor. With such a large slate in play, oddball value options like Chris Flexen and Jose Quintana may draw the eye, but Quintana is priced up for the excellent matchup against the Tigers and neither starter is what anyone would think of as reliable. The options for MLB DFS tournament play are extremely broad for this slate, getting overweight to the public’s ownership on any one pitcher may not be the best approach, though some of the positively leveraged options near the top of the board certainly deserve more attention than the public is currently affording them.
In a bit of a pricing oddity on the FanDuel slate, Carlos Rodon actually lands cheaper than every other top-end option among the first five listed in the previous paragraph, despite ranking firmly as the top option in his matchup against the Rockies, which makes him the most negatively leveraged pitcher on the board while most of the young starters are pulling in positive leverage scores. The excellent southpaw is a $10,300 pitcher on DraftKings, where he is still pulling in nearly 40% popularity, his $9,900 salary on FanDuel has him at almost the same level of ownership, he will be well over 30% popular on the huge slate. Rodon is deserving of the attention, particularly for the discount. He has a 30.4% strikeout rate with a 3.30 xFIP and a 3.44 ERA this season while inducing a 13.3% swinging-strike rate. Rodon is an elite option who is facing a Rockies active roster with an excellent strikeout rate against lefties, Colorado is sitting at just an 18.4% rate, the sixth-best mark in the sport, but Rodon is an elite strikeout artist who should be able to overcome that rate and the Rockies’ run creation mark in the split which stands 14% above average. The Rockies have largely lacked power against lefties, their 1.94% home run rate ranks 24th and they have a .151 collective ISO, the 19th-ranked mark on the board. For a team loaded with right-handed bats that can hit for power, the numbers in the split are somewhat surprising, and they play strongly in Rodon’s favor. The only issue with rostering Rodon is dealing with the weight of public popularity, but on a slate as large as this one it is easy enough to stack unique hitters with the outstanding southpaw.
With one of baseball’s worst offenses arriving in Atlanta, Braves righty Kyle Wright looks like an excellent bet for success in his start against the Athletics. Wright has a 27.5% strikeout rate over 59.2 innings in 10 starts while pitching to a 3.32 xFIP. Wright has a 2.41 ERA and he has induced a 12.1% swinging-strike rate with a 31% CSW% and just a 1.25% home run rate. The power has been limited by keeping quality contact to just a 35.4% hard-hit percentage and a 7.5% barrel rate while also keeping the ball largely on the ground. Opposing hitters have just a five-degree average launch angle against Wright this season, resulting in a 52.7% ground ball rate. Wright’s opponent is among the league’s worst, Oakland’s active roster has a 1.72% home run rate that ranks 30th among 30 teams against righties, their .113 ISO sits 28th, and they have created runs 23% worse than average to fall into 28th place in collective WRC+ in the split. The team’s 22.7% strikeout rate ranks 18th, their high point on the board. This is an excellent target for Wright, the young righty is deserving of his $10,100 salary on DraftKings and $10,500 mark on FanDuel, even at the high prices he should be more popular from site to site, though he technically is at slightly negative leverage.
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Justin Verlander has a 25.3% strikeout rate over his 64.2 innings in 10 starts so far this season. The veteran has come back to pitch to a sharp 2.23 ERA and a 3.59 xFIP over the first third of the season, defying the odds with largely outstanding results. Verlander has a 10.8% swinging-strike rate, and he has been good at limiting premium contact with a 37.6% hard-hit percentage and a 7.3% barrel rate, though he has taken a few lumps with a 3.73% home run rate. Verlander’s 5% walk rate and 0.80 WHIP are both terrific marks, but he is not facing a pushover opponent today. Seattle’s active roster has created runs 17% better than average against righties, the seventh-ranked team in the split, and they strike out at a 10th-ranked 20.5% rate. The team has lacked power upside against righties however, their .146 ISO and 2.67% home run rate both rank 20th in baseball against right-handed pitching. Verlander is the second-most expensive option on the FanDuel slate, where he will be pulling in just 12% popularity, he costs $10,600 for twice the popularity on the two-pitcher site. Between the matchup and the negative leverage, as well as a wealth of similarly ranked less popular options, Verlander is a spot on which to consider an undercut to the field. He remains an excellent option in an ownership and cost vacuum, but his popularity is challenging in this case. Verlander should be included in lineups, but leaving a few shares for the public while pivoting to positive leverage is a sharp approach.
Toronto righty Alek Manoah is the top-ranked starter with positive leverage on both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Manoah is facing a Royals roster that has a 20.4% strikeout rate that ranks eighth against right-handed pitching, their lone positive attribute in the split. The Royals roster has a 25th-ranked .135 ISO and a 2.20% home run rate that sits 26th in the split, and the team has created runs 7% worse than average against righties so far this season. Kansas City is not a good team, they are focused primarily on hit tools and speed, which is an antiquated and flawed approach to the game. Manoah, meanwhile, has a 23% strikeout rate with an outstanding 1.98 ERA that is slightly betrayed by his 3.67 xFIP. The righty has induced a 12.4% swinging-strike rate this season and he has a 27.6% CSW%, both of which are in line with his performance last year. The strikeouts have dipped from his 27.7% rate over 111.2 innings in 2021, but Manoah has also cut walks from an 8.7% rate to just four percent, taking his already strong WHIP from 1.05 to 0.91, and he has allowed just a 2.02% home run rate. The lack of opposing power is no fluke, Manoah is superb at limiting premium contact in the long term. The righty had a 31.2% hard-hit percentage with a 5.8% barrel rate last year, this season he has cut that to a ludicrous 26.6% hard-hit percentage with a 2.8% barrel rate. With single-digit popularity industrywide, Manoah is a prime target on today’s pitching slate, regardless of where one is entering MLB DFS lineups.
On a night of fantastic options up and down the board, Tigers lefty Tarik Skubal is arguably under-owned at just 9% popularity on FanDuel and 20.5% on DraftKings. The stellar southpaw has a 27% strikeout rate on an 11.8% swinging-strike rate this season and he has pitched to a 2.79 xFIP with a 2.15 ERA. Skubal has solved his issues with power this season as well, gone are the days of a 5.52% home run rate that we saw last season, instead, the lefty has allowed just a 0.88% home run rate this season. Skubal accomplished that major improvement by cutting barrels from a whopping 13.9% to just 4.5% and keeping the ball down by an additional three degrees of launch angle on average. Skubal draws a Pirates team that is frisky against left-handed pitching, as expected coming into the season. Pittsburgh has a .174 ISO and a 3.47% home run rate in the split, the 10th and eighth-best marks in the split. The team strikes out at an aggressive 22.5% rate, falling to 17th against lefties, but they have created runs 8% better than average in the split and they are not entirely the pushover that people may perceive on paper without looking under the surface. Still, Skubal has significant upside in a team that has yielded large pitching scores with regularity this season, he is very much on the board along with the pitchers above him on this list.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves will be backing up Kyle Wright with a loaded offense against lefty punching bag Cole Irvin. The southpaw has just a 14.8% strikeout rate over 45.2 innings this season, he had a 16.3% rate in 178.1 innings in 32 starts last season. Irvin pitched to a 4.82 xFIP with a 4.24 ERA and a 2.99% home run rate last year, this season he has a 4.39 xFIP and a 2.96 ERA in the small sample while allowing a 2.65% home run rate. Irvin is targetable with all of the balls in play that he allows, and the 36.9% hard-hit percentage with an 11.4% barrel rate should translate into more home runs as the season continues. Atlanta’s outstanding lineup leads all of baseball with a .213 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. The team has a 3.59% home run rate and they have created runs 22% better than average in the split against southpaws this season. The Braves are among the leading team stacks by their probability of success on both DraftKings and FanDuel, they are slightly negatively leveraged but they have a premium stack score on today’s slate and look like an excellent target in all formats. Ronald Acuna Jr. is deservingly the top-owned player on both sites at 14.2% on DraftKings and 24.2% on FanDuel, but the rest of the Braves lineup comes at easily playable ownership. Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley and Matt Olson make a powerful trio that follows Acuna in the lineup, with Olson potentially sliding down a few places against a lefty. The Braves play fully from one through nine, there is virtually no drop-off in getting to Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, Travis d’Arnaud and Adam Duvall from the bottom half of the batting order. Duvall is a low-cost power bat who has just three home runs and a .108 ISO while slashing .199/.260/.306 this season, betting on the return to form is worthwhile with no popularity or cost. At the bottom of the projected batting order, rookie Michael Harris II is slashing .265/.286/.385 with just a 76 WRC+ over his first 35 plate appearances, but he can provide upside at his extremely low prices, Harris is a premium prospect who was promoted early to fill out the Braves lineup, he has more talent than the field thinks.
San Francisco Giants
The Giants are facing German Marquez in what could be an interesting both-sides matchup for MLB DFS purposes. The Rockies’ righty has pitched to just an 18.3% strikeout rate so far this season, he has been far better than that in the past and the contact has led to ugly marks across the board. The righty has an inflated 6.71 ERA that will scream “target” to the public at large, but his 3.88 xFIP is more indicative of Marquez’ season to this point. The righty’s dip in strikeouts is the more concerning number, he has induced just a 9.7% swinging-strike rate this season, falling from a 12.1% rate and his CSW% sits at just 25.2%. Marquez has also been bad with contact this year, he has allowed a 47.8% hard-hit percentage and a 4.38% home run rate, up from a 38.9% hard-hit and a 2.78% home run rate last year. He is very cheap and unowned from site to site, but he also makes the Giants look good at positive leverage as an opposing stack. San Francisco’s active roster has a .178 ISO and a 3.42% home run rate that rank fourth and eighth respectively against righties this season. The team has a 20.5% strikeout rate that sits 10th in baseball, and they have created runs at a fourth-ranked 19% above average. Leadoff man Tommy La Stella starts a run of five hitters who all strike out at less than a 20% rate this season, La Stella is the most popular Giants bat on FanDuel at just under 10% for $2,800, he is projected for less than 1% ownership at $4,700 on DraftKings. Mike Yastrzemski and Wilmer Flores are both strong options who are very unpopular on DraftKings and land in the middle single digits on the blue site. Yastrzemski is creating runs 42% better than average over his 177 plate appearances this season, he is an underrated play across the MLB DFS industry. Lefty masher Joc Pederson has hit 13 home runs in 152 plate appearances with a 55.7% hard-hit percentage and a 20.8% barrel rate that rival the best in baseball. Pederson is slashing .271/.349/.602 with an outrageous .331 ISO while creating runs 63% better than average this season. Shortstop Brandon Crawford and third baseman Evan Longoria add veteran quality to the middle of the lineup, and young Luis Gonzalez has been terrific over 124 plate appearances this season. Gonzalez remains cheap and under-owned despite slashing .321/.363/.446 with a WRC+ that sits 29% above average this season. Joey Bart can be included where catchers are required, but he has not distinguished himself at the plate outside of his four home runs this season.
Toronto Blue Jays
Brad Keller is on the mound for the Royals today, which is all anyone should need to hear in evaluating the upside opportunity for MLB DFS scoring for the opposing Blue Jays lineup. Keller has a 4.43 xFIP and a 4.15 ERA this season, he strikes out just 13.1% of opposing hitters and he yields nearly 40% hard hits. The righty has managed to keep the ball in the yard with moderate success this season, he has a 2.78% home run rate against, but he allows far too many balls in play and too many runners with his 1.24 WHIP. Keller is a targetable pitcher and the Blue Jays rank at the very peak of the Top Stacks Tool on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The team has a thin slice of positive leverage on the FanDuel slate with a leading stack score. They are slightly negative on the DraftKings board, but their stack score also leads that slate, they make an excellent team stack for tonight’s action. Outfielder George Springer, shortstop Bo Bichette and all-world first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are an excellent trio to start any lineup, they are all projected for less than 10% popularity on the FanDuel slate. The trio lands between 10 and 12% popularity on DraftKings, making them easily playable. Guerrero is scuffling at the front of his triple-slash with just a .254/.345/.487 but he has 13 home runs and a .233 ISO while creating runs 34% better than average. Teoscar Hernandez is just as good as that group, he is owned equally at similar pricing on DraftKings, but he is projected to be the team’s most popular player at a ridiculous $2,800 price on FanDuel. Slugging catcher Alejandro Kirk and flexible infielder Cavan Biggio can both be included in lineups, while Matt Chapman seems to be under-owned on every slate this year. Pending lineup confirmation, the final spots will have options like Raimel Tapia and Bradley Zimmer, both of whom have been underwhelming on the whole but have any-given-slate upside.
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St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals just missed coming through against a big lefty when they were last featured in this space, but they remain an outstanding target for run creation against southpaws and they are getting largely ignored by the field in a matchup against young Jeffrey Springs. Springs has been good for the Rays so far, he has a 28% strikeout rate with a 3.13 xFIP and a 0.86 WHIP, but he has yielded a 3.50% home run rate to this point that can be targeted with extremely low-owned Cardinals bats. Springs is inarguably talented, he has induced a 15.5% swinging-strike rate and walked just 5.6%, but the Cardinals’ active roster has created runs 31% better than average by collective WRC+ in the split, the best mark in baseball by a wide margin. St. Louis has a 3.27% home run rate with a .175 ISO in the split and they strike out at just an 18.2% rate. The Cardinals are lurking in the bottom-third of the Top Stacks board on both sites, they are not rating highly in the site’s tools largely due to Springs, but the team looks like a better option than that for MLB DFS tournament play on this slate.
With less than 1% of the field projected to include him in lineups, excellent leadoff man Tommy Edman can be used widely at just $4,700 on DraftKings and for a thousand less across town. Edman is slashing .280/.361/.420 with 14 stolen bases and five home runs in his 234 plate appearances. The infielder has created runs 26% better than average setting the table for the loaded lineup that follows.
Paul Goldschmidt has been tearing the cover off the ball all season. The first baseman is slashing an outrageous .343/.423/.608 with 12 home runs and a .265 ISO while creating runs 89% better than average this season. Goldschmidt has a 46.5% hard-hit percentage with a 10.7% barrel rate, he is an excellent option who will also be owned by less than 1% of the field on this slate. It is worth mentioning at this point that Goldschmidt has obliterated lefties to the tune of a .500/.574/.900 triple-slash with a .400 ISO while creating runs 202% better than average against lefties this season. Again, he is projected for less than 1% popularity.
Third baseman Nolan Arenado does not have the outrageous triple-slash that his teammate sports in the split, but he does have a similarly titanic .371 ISO and he has created runs 57% better than average against lefties this season. Arenado has 10 home runs and is slashing .278/.347/.495 with a .217 ISO and a 137 WRC+ overall, he is too cheap and far too unpopular for his talents, he joins a growing list of excellent Cardinals hitters who are projected below the 1% ownership line.
Albert Pujols has also been good against lefties this season, depending on the configuration of the Cardinals’ confirmed lineup, he may or may not be in this spot. Right-handed outfielder Tyler O’Neill is due to return to the lineup and he may reclaim this position in the batting order while potentially also taking the DH spot from Pujols for a night. O’Neill is obviously the better player, but either can be utilized and they can be deployed together in stacks if they are both in the lineup.
Young Juan Yepez is another player who could lose his spot to O’Neill, but Yepez has been very good and belongs in the lineup. He has an excellent projection in today’s home run model, landing at a 10.38, and he is slashing .269/.333/.442 while creating runs 21% better than average in his 117 plate appearances. Yepez also offers first base eligibility on FanDuel, where he can be combined in unique ways with his also unowned teammates.
Righty outfielder Harrison Bader is good at putting the ball in play, he has just a 15.5% strikeout rate while walking only 4.7% of the time, but he has lacked power overall. Bader has a lowly 28.3% hard-hit percentage and just a 3.9% barrel rate, the barrels match catcher Yadier Molina’s output this season, while the ancient backstop has a better hard-hit mark at 32.4%. Either hitter can be included with limited enthusiasm and exposure as needed from site to site, Molina has more utility where catchers are needed but he is a low-end option even on that site.
Edmundo Sosa can be seen as a bit of an afterthought at the bottom of the lineup. His head is not above the surface in any meaningful statistic for MLB DFS projections. He can be skipped if he is in the lineup or played in very limited doses to catch correlated scoring. The more interesting hitter at the end of the lineup is Brendan Donovan, who comes in slashing .319/.439/.447 while creating runs 57% better than average in his 114 plate appearances this year. Donovan makes for an interesting wraparound play from the very bottom of the batting order, he can be deployed even more aggressively if he happens to hit higher than ninth.
Home Run Prediction Today: Paul Goldschmidt — St. Louis Cardinals
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