NFL Slant And Go: Pat Mahomes Highlights An Absolutely Stacked Divisional NFL Playoff Round With A Lot Of Viable Plays

After an ugly Wild Card round where you really had to scratch and claw out serviceable performances to win, it looks like a much more free flowing Divisional round with some gaudy totals. In fact, pricing industrywide is down quite a bit to allow people to jam in all the appealing options in front of them so you’re going to really have to pick and choose spots and games you want to attack carefully to squeeze every last dollar of value out of the guys you play. Which spots look good and which look avoidable? I’ll walk you through all four games with some guidance on how I’m planning on attacking the slate in our last NFL weekend with an abundance of fantasy options.

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Indianapolis Colts (26 implied points) at Kansas City Chiefs (31 implied points)

Andrew Luck should be one of the more popular plays on the slate with the team total here and decent probability of playing from behind. There are some game scripts where I could see him faltering, namely ones where the run game takes over vs a Chiefs D allowing 5 yards per rush In an effort to squeeze the air out of the ball, but overall Luck looks like a strong play with TY Hilton the most appealing stack candidate given the Chiefs allowing teams to throw downfield on them, 9.1 air yards per attempt

Eric Ebron could be an underowned play with the Chiefs allowing a 19.1% boost to TEs via Football Outsiders’ DVOA. The target share for him isn’t as heavy as it was during parts of the regular season but this is a spot where he could be helpful as a big target who can get downfield

Dontrelle Inman is still a bit interesting and maybe Nyheim Hines could be useful after disappointing a lot of smart folks last week but these guys and Chester Rogers feel more like flyers than guys to bank on

Patrick Mahomes can create TDs in a variety of ways with a bunch of different targets but he tends to be the vessel for things to happen so even a potentially tough defensive matchup vs the Colts isn’t enough to scare me off. I’m more interested in Travis Kelce as a target than Tyreek Hill given how the Colts D specializes in keeping plays in front of them with zone coverage and the 21.2% DVOA boost they allow to TE

Sammy Watkins could be a decent contrarian play if he’s back in the lineup and you could talk me into some Chris Conley if he isn’t for the zone defense reasons mentioned above

Damien Williams looks like a really nice value here even though I worry a little about Spencer Ware cutting into his rushing opportunities. But Williams’ pass game involvement should be enough to keep him viable and with some real upside at his price

 

Dallas Cowboys (21.3 implied points) at Los Angeles Rams (28.3 implied points)

Ezekiel Elliott is the first guy to look at on the Dallas side with him getting more touches than anyone on the slate and his price down a bit. There’s some risk of him getting game flowed out with the Rams a threat to put up points early but I’d fall back on his pass game involvement and chance of punching something in from close to balance out any concern

Dak Prescott is a playable contrarian play with some rushing upside vs a Rams D who didn’t reach its full potential during the season and allows more scares through the air than on the ground. A stack with him and Amari Cooper will likely be underowned and appealing with the Rams beatable and offering a 15.9% DVOA boost to WR1s

Michael Gallup is the only other piece of the Cowboys that interests me with this not seeming like a spot for Blake Jarwin. Given how often Dak missed Gallup during the year we may have already seen their one postseason TD connection though so I wouldn’t exactly trust him here

-The Rams are super cheap for how explosive their offense is and I worry that it’s a little trappish with how strong the Cowboys D can be. Todd Gurley is the play I’d be most inclined to trust even though his injuries and the way Dallas shut down Seattle’s run game does give me a little bit of pause

-I’m not huge on Jared Goff here though I think he may go a bit underowned despite being practically the cheapest QB on the slate. The Cowboys secondary has been solid for the most part but Brandin Cooks does seem like a player who could beat them with his speed. I’d be more inclined to play him than Robert Woods here but with them priced closely, there’s no wrong answer

-I also wouldn’t sleep on Josh Reynolds here; WR3s are the spot Dallas struggles to cover the most according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA and he can see a lot of volume if the big 2 are otherwise oppressed by the defense

Gerald Everett is a somewhat intriguing punt play but realistically I can’t imagine playing him over Ebron or Kelce. But he’s probably my second most preferred cheap guy at the position so he’s got that going for him

 

LA Chargers (21.8 implied points) at New England Patriots (25.8 implied points)

-A lot of people are down on Melvin Gordon and he has yet to really excel after going out with his knee issues. But I feel as though a good bit of that is matchup based and I wouldn’t be shocked to see him as a key focus here with the Pats allowing 4.9 yards per rush. Gordon may go underowned on the slate and I’ll definitely give myself some even though it does seem like Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson can take some touches off the table

-There’s a lot of anti-Philip Rivers narrative with his win rate at New England but I’m not buying it so much. I prefer the run game and I think Bill Belichick will gameplan to limit Keenan Allen but the idea of a Rivers/Mike Williams stack intrigues me quite a bit. Mike is an athletic target who may not have a match on the Pats side and he gets targeted more often and deeper than his last name sharing running mate Tyrell Williams

-After practicing in full, Hunter Henry is the other cheap TE I could see forcing into lineups with the crazy upside he’s shown in the past. The Pats may not be ready for Henry like they will be for Allen

-It seems likely the Patriots try to lean on the run game and Sony Michel here but I’m not sure that they’ll be able to find that much success vs a Chargers D who really had the Ravens’ number vs the run and gave up just 4.3 yards per rush this year

-I do like Tom Brady a bit here with his price low and juuuuust a bit of a playoff track record of success. I could see a ton of dump offs to James White and slants to Julian Edelman en route to a big TB12 passing day and I’ll definitely have some of him even though the Chargers D should make him uncomfortable

-I’m not buying the Rob Gronkowki love I’ve seen floating around with the Chargers the best team via DVOA against TEs, a 52.4% decrease on production. Nothing we’ve seen this year has shown Gronk can get the separation he’ll need vs a secondary who should bring tight coverage to him all day

-You could also talk me into a Patriots D play with a narrative of Rivers imploding but I’m not hyper confident in that one, just playing a potential outcome

 

Philadelphia Eagles (21.5 implied points) at New Orleans Saints (29.5 implied points)

Nick Foles intrigues me as a contrarian play; we know the Saints can score in bunches and we know Foles will drop back almost 40 times in a game. The Saints D at home can be scary but I’m in on Nick doing Big Dick things somehow again, albeit perhaps not at the success rate of the other QBs on the slate

Alshon Jeffery would be the stack target I want and a bounceback game for Nelson Agholor wouldn’t be surprising either. Darren Sproles getting some action in the pass game after serving as the lead back vs the Bears intrigues me at his price too

-I’m not feeling Zach Ertz in this spot even with his price down but he seems likely to be a contrarian play compared to some of these other higher priced guys so I could see taking that pathway for game theory reasons. On paper it does look like much smoother sledding for Kelce and Ebron, though

Drew Brees might be underowned due to his price up and if that’s the case in our ownership projections, you could talk me into some exposure here even though it’s fair to be concerned with how conservatively he and the Saints played down the stretch. But Michael Thomas could really feast here and even Ted Ginn could find success beating the Eagles deep if that’s how the Saints opt to attack. Add in his red zone passes to running backs and there’s a compelling case for Brees

-Despite the struggles of the Eagles secondary, the run game is still a strong place to attack with the Eagles allowing scores on 4.2% of rush attempts and 4.7 yards per rush. Alvin Kamara is still the guy here with how he could gash the Eagles on the ground and via the air but Mark Ingram getting around 10-15 touches can definitely carve them up as well. I’ll have more Kamara than Ingram but if the price fits a preferred lineup construction I’d be comfortable with either guy

-And despite the Foles magic in the air, the Saints D at home has shown some serious disruptive potential that come into play vs a guy dropping back as often as Foles does. He didn’t combust vs the Bears but a defensive TD does not seem impossible in the least with the Saints generating the most pressure on the slate

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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