DFS Golf Picks This Week: AT&T Byron Nelson 2022 DraftKings Plays

The AT&T Byron Nelson 2022 returns again to its normal place on the schedule right before the PGA Championship and will be played for the second year in a row at TPC Craig Ranch. That event was played at Trinity Forest prior to the pandemic, but it will be held at TPC Craig Ranch until at least 2025. The venue is a relatively new Tom Weiskopf design that is located just outside of Dallas. Weiskopf also designed one of the more famous courses on tour in TPC Scottsdale, which plays to a similar yardage as Craig Ranch but is just a par 71. While there is not a ton of actual course history, there is a good course comparison with TPC Scottsdale to help make DFS golf picks this week on DraftKings and FanDuel.

Being a week out from the second major championship of the season, there are a few extra elite names in attendance this year, with seven of the world’s top 15 golfers in the field. Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama and Jordan Spieth will all be teeing up. Spieth is a Dallas native and will be joined by fellow Texans Scottie Scheffler and Will Zalatoris, for whom this week is a bit of a home game. The newer course should bring in some extra volatility and looks to be a fair test, but it also produced a 25-under winning score last year in soft conditions. Expect lots of birdies again but slightly tougher conditions with warmer weather on tap.

DFS Golf Rankings & Expert AT&T Byron Nelson 2022 Picks

TPC Craig Ranch Stats and Info

Par 72, 7,554 yards featuring bentgrass on the greens, was designed by Tom Weiskopf in 2004 and hosted the 2012 Korn Ferry Tour Championship. Weiskopf has also designed TPC Scottsdale, host of Waste Management Phoenix Open.
The venue features just a couple of large water hazards, but there is a creek that runs through the course and is in play on several holes. Fairways are larger than average as well, and while some holes are heavily tree-lined, there are plenty of wide-open landing spots.
Four par 5’s (three of which are 560 yards or less), along with five par 4’s that measure longer than 450 yards.

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AT&T Byron Nelson 2022 DFS Golf Picks & Fantasy Golf Rankings

Justin Thomas: Grades: A+, Values: C

The No. 1 player in the world is in the field this week, but the Awesemo Model has made it clear that it prefers a player just down below in Justin Thomas. Thomas leads the projections this week and also has a better value score than Scheffler, making Thomas the logical starting point for DFS lineups. You could always try to jam in both players (Scheffler does rank out second in the projections) but if you are choosing between the two, Thomas undoubtedly brings slightly better value.

Thomas is still searching for his first win in over a year, but he is truly just one hot week on the greens away from accomplishing that goal. Thomas’ ball striking has been steady as ever, and he comes into this week having gained over two strokes on approach in each of his last four starts. He also leads the field in strokes gained on approach over the last 50 rounds. Thomas is not just going through the motions this week and would love a victory to build some momentum going into the last three majors of the season. Thomas and Scheffler will duke it out for No. 1 status in most PGA DFS circles this week, but the slight lean on Awesemo goes to Thomas.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 18.9% | FanDuel: 31.9%

The Stats:

Leads the field in strokes gained on approach over the last 50 rounds.
First in par-4 efficiency and proximity from 150 to 175 yards over the last 50 rounds.

Maverick McNealy: Grades: B, Values: B, C

There are some strong players that popped in the model this week in the $8,000 range, but the name that really stood out past the top 10 players or so was Maverick McNealy, who is only $7,800 on DraftKings this week. McNealy has turned into a DFS darling, making 12 cuts in a row while consistently being available at very easy to fit in price points in most events. McNealy has gotten it done in a number of different ways this year with some hot putting that has seen him gain over eight strokes in an event just on the greens alone, and better ball-striking than he showed in 2021.

McNealy has gained strokes off the tee and on approach now in three straight starts and is a player who has been close on multiple occasions to grabbing his first win. He is ranked with the highest PGA DFS point projection in the Awesemo Model this week of any player under $8,000 on DraftKings and has one of the best value scores of anyone in the $7,000 range on DraftKings as well. He will likely be less popular on FanDuel due to salary but makes for a good addition to your core plays, regardless of site.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 23.2% | FanDuel: 15.1%

The Stats:

Top 10 in birdies and eagles over the last 50 rounds of play.
Seventh in DraftKings points over the last 50 rounds of play.

Awesemo golf betting experts Ben Rasa and Eytan Shander will be coming to you every week on the OddsShopper YouTube Channel with the Putting for Dough golf betting show, where they give you their expert PGA picks and predictions for the week. This week, they are giving their free golf betting picks for the AT&T Byron Nelson 2022.

Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Golf GPP Flier

Matthew Wolff ($7,200)

You are likely in one of two camps when it comes to Matthew Wolff. Either you want to avoid the crazy blowup potential at all costs or you love the mega upside he brings, and do not mind absorbing the poor weeks until he pays off. Lately, avoiding Wolff has been the play, but the American did finally manage to post a solid finish for the first time in multiple months last week, grabbing a 25th place finish at the Wells Fargo. It was the first top-25 from Wolff since the fall swing (when he landed three consecutive top-12 finishes) and it came on the back of very good iron play, which saw him gain two strokes on the field on approach.

Wolff’s driver cost him a chance at truly competing last week, and ultimately that club could hold him back if his irons dip again, but TPC Craig Ranch is also much more forgiving off the tee than TPC Potomac and saw multiple players from the top 10 last year actually lose strokes off the tee for the week. If Wolff is even semi-competent with the driver, it could lead to more confidence in the rest of his game. Given the ownership projections on Wolff are barely registering a heartbeat at least early in the week, he makes for the perfect wildcard addition to GPP lineups or player pools, where you will not need to have much exposure to be overweight on the field.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 0.8%

Top 3 Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week

This section will target players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings Golf GPPs. These picks are boom/bust PGA DFS players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

Sahith Theegala ($7,100)

If you cannot handle the bust propensity that Wolff brings, maybe look to Sahith Theegala, who has been a little more consistent and looked good his last time out in Mexico, putting in his best ball-striking week since early March. There is a Weiskopf connection, as he landed a third-place finish (and nearly won) earlier in the year on TPC Scottsdale.

C.T. Pan ($7,300)

It is odd that C.T. Pan is not getting more love but there is absolutely zero reason not to look to him as a lower-owned pivot play this week. He has gained strokes on approach now in seven straight starts and has missed the cut just once in his last eight starts on the PGA Tour. If his putter ever gets hot, he will be contending.

David Lipsky ($7,100)

Lipsky missed the cut last week, but like many players he seemed to just get overwhelmed by the bad weather on Friday. He led the field in strokes gained on approach two weeks ago and made two eagles on the easy par 5’s in Mexico. The venue this week is much easier with some very scoreable par 5’s and should be much more up Lipsky’s alley in terms of fit.

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