DFS Golf Picks This Week: PGA Championship 2022 DraftKings Plays

The PGA Championship kicks off this week in Tulsa, Oklahoma at Southern Hills. The venue has hosted seven major caliber events prior to this week and was last seen on tour in 2007 when it hosted the PGA Championship. Southern Hills is a longer par 70 that can stretch over 7,500 yards and features just two par 5’s that both come in at over 620 yards in length. That means par 4 scoring will be key this week and there are also seven par 4’s on the course that stretch over 450 yards in length.

The venue was redesigned by Gil Hanse in 2019 and it is worth noting that Hanse also redesigned another recent major venue in Winged Foot, which also played as a long par 70. Expect lots of missed greens in regulation this week, given Southern Hills’ small green structures, undulating landscapes around the greens and the inclusion of more runoffs around the greens from the renovations. The field this week is set at 156 golfers and Scottie Scheffler again comes into this event ranked as the No. 1 player in the world. This week will feature all of the top 50 players in the world, with the exception of Paul Casey and Sungjae Im, who both withdrew on Monday. As always, Awesemo has PGA Models for the entire field, including DFS golf ownership projections and win percentages.

DFS Golf Rankings & Expert PGA Championship 2022 Picks

Southern Hills Stats and Info

Par 70, 7,556 yards; was redesigned in 2019 by Gil Hanse (Rio Course, Winged Foot redesign). Features undulating Bentgrass greens and Bermuda on the fairways and rough.
The venue sets up with 10 doglegs of varying degrees and two par 5’s which stretch over 620 yards (may not be a huge advantage for big hitters).
Winning score in 2001 US Open (Retief Goosen -4); Winning Score in 2007 PGA Championship (Tiger Woods -8).

Latest PGA DFS Content

PGA Championship 2022 DFS Golf Picks & Fantasy Golf Rankings

Rory McIlroy: Grades: A, Values: B

It has only been a month since Augusta, but not much has changed for Rory McIlroy. He is still playing well and added another top major finish to his cap with a thrilling final round at the Masters to vault him into a solo second place finish. McIlroy has only played once since then, but it was a solid outing in horrid weather at the Wells Fargo which saw him go on to finish in fifth place and put together a very solid ball striking week, on the whole.

Despite all the positives surrounding McIlroy here, his daily fantasy price on DraftKings remains unchanged since Augusta and it is something the Awesemo Model has picked up on this week. He is ranked third in the overall point projections on the site, but it is a tighter grouping between the top five players than in past events. McIlroy is also, by far, the best value in that top five grouping, coming in at just $10,000 flat on DraftKings, the fifth most expensive golfer on the slate. With his form still looking sharp and a nice major championship finish in his back pocket already, he looks like a perfect anchor play to build around this week, with a price that can pair with another player above $10,000 on DraftKings.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 17.9% | FanDuel: 11.1%

The Stats:

Gained 8.5 strokes ball striking alone in his last outing at the Wells Fargo
Third in par 4 scoring and fifth in par 4 efficiency from 450 to 500 yards over the last 50 rounds

Patrick Cantlay: Grades: A, Values: A, B

While it is fine to take advantage of the deeper value in this field and start with multiple players over $10,000 this week, going balanced and avoiding all players $10,000 and above in lineups (DraftKings) looks like it will have a chance of succeeding as well. That is because there are names like Patrick Cantlay available at ridiculously cheap prices. Cantlay only played twice between the majors, but both starts showcased a game that was at or near the peak of its powers. In a somewhat unlucky playoff loss at the RBC Heritage, he gained over 11 strokes ball striking, and then bounced back the next week and grabbed a piece of the team title at the Zurich with Xander Schauffele.

While he had already put together some solid showings early in 2022, those two starts were likely his best of the season and certainly give the image of a player who already has a Tour Championship and multiple playoff wins ready to breakthrough in a major. Cantlay’s all-around game should be allowed to flourish at Southern Hills, where creativity around the green and precision ball striking will likely mean more than pure power off the tee. It is worth noting that his best finish in a major ever came in this event back in 2019 at Beth Page Black (third). Cantlay ranks out as the best value in the field over $9,000 (DraftKings) in the Awesemo Model this week and is a great player to build around.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 20.4% | FanDuel: 11.2%

The Stats:

Has gained strokes off the tee now in 13 of his last 14 PGA Tour starts, dating back to 2021
Gained 11.4 strokes ball striking in his last solo stroke play start at the RBC Heritage in April

Awesemo golf betting experts Ben Rasa and Eytan Shander will be coming to you every week on the OddsShopper YouTube Channel with the Putting for Dough golf betting show, where they give you their expert PGA picks and predictions for the week. This week, they are giving their free 2022 PGA Championship golf betting picks and predictions.

Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Golf GPP Flier

Sergio Garcia ($7,200)

Sergio Garcia has now made six cuts in a row, including top-30 finishes at the Masters and Players. That in itself is significant as Garcia was in something of a major drought and had missed the cut at Augusta every year since his historic win in 2017. He is also coming into the PGA Championship off his best ball striking week of the season at the Wells Fargo, where he gained 5.1 strokes ball striking and finished 21st. Despite all that, he is trending with sub-4% ownership this week and looks likely to stay around 5%, at best, even in larger-buy-in events, due mainly to some abysmal PGA Championship form that has seen him miss the cut at this event in six straight seasons.

In a lot of ways, there may not be a better upside play in this range for GPPs. Garcia is top 15 in both par 4 efficiency and bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds and likely has not played this consistent, tee to green, since the 2017 season. From a narrative perspective, if Garcia is planning to leave for the LIV Golf Tour soon, he will be motivated to take the Wanamaker trophy with him as a parting shot at the PGA. It is high risk but high reward with Garcia this week, who is in good enough form to push for a top-five finish if he can start fast.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 3.0%

Top 3 Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week

This section will target players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings Golf GPPs. These picks are boom/bust PGA DFS players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

Matt Kuchar ($6,800)

The distance narrative should help keep Kuchar’s ownership quite low this week. He is playing great golf of late, though, having now made five cuts in a row with four finishes of 16th or better. The small greens at Southern Hills should mean around the green play and the ability to scramble is amplified, as they often are in majors. Kuchar could easily pop for a top-20 finish this week on a course that may allow shorter hitters to compete.

Brian Harman ($7,000)

Harman is barely registering with a heartbeat in terms of ownership, coming in around 1% owned in the early Awesemo projections. He has played well of late though and is sixth in par 4 scoring over the last 24 rounds. Shorter hitters are getting ignored this week, but Harman has made the cut in four straight US Opens and finished 13th at the long Quail Hollow for the PGA back in 2017.

Russell Henley ($7,200)

Trending with under 5% ownership this week as well is Henley, who has now made the cut in each of the last three PGA Championships and last three US Opens. He gained 5.1 strokes ball striking at the Wells Fargo two weeks ago and has also made the cut in six straight PGA Championships coming into this year. Henley is top 10 in birdie or better percentage over the last 50 rounds so if he makes the weekend he could easily end up as a top 20 scorer for the week in DFS.

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