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DFS Golf Picks This Week & Expert Rankings for the 2022 Valero Texas Open

Geoff Ulrich

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The Masters at Augusta National is on a lot of people’s minds but there is one more warmup event before the big dance begins and plenty of DFS golf contests to go along with it. The Valero Texas Open used to take place two weeks before Augusta, but it got moved up into the on deck spot a few years back and features a great venue to prep players for major championship golf. DraftKings and FanDuel are still offering enticing PGA DFS contests, and with the help of the Awesemo expert rankings and projections, this will pinpoint some of the best daily fantasy golf picks this week.

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The Valero Texas Open has taken place at TPC San Antonio, a Greg Norman course design, for over a decade, and in many ways, it is one of the more unappreciated venues on the PGA Tour. TPC San Antonio allows scoring — as evidenced by the fact Corey Conners got to -20 in 2019 — but also puts pressure on the players with lots of demanding approaches. The par-72, 7,435-yard venue still ranked as the 12th toughest on tour in 2019 and does not present the players with many pure scoring holes, as even its par 5’s tend to play tougher than most. Two of those come in at over 600 yards. Strong mid to long iron play is essential this week and the past four winners at this event all gained seven strokes or more on approach for the week of their win.

DFS Golf Rankings & Expert Valero Texas Open Picks 2022

TPC San Antonio Stats and Info

  • This venue features some of the toughest to hit greens on tour, with a greens-in-regulation rate that typically falls between 52 and 58% most years, well below tour average. Players will need a decent short game this week regardless of how well they are striking it.
  • It is more of a driver-heavy course, with average driving distance typically falling a couple of yards above the tour average; fairways are extremely hard to hit, with driving accuracy numbers being 5% to 10% lower than average most seasons.
  • It features atypical par 5’s, as only two of the four par 5’s on the course rank in the top five easiest holes to score on.

Putting Splits

The greens at TPC San Antonio are TifEagle Bermuda. Bermuda grass tends to be more dormant here this time of year, but Bermuda putting splits will still be the guide. Here is a more general look at some of the best and worst Bermuda putters in the field, relative to their strokes gained on other surfaces. Use caution with these in your fantasy golf picks; they are not the be-all, end-all, but they make for a nice tiebreaker.

Positive Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

  1. Adam Hadwin: +33 strokes on Bermudagrass, +6 on all other surfaces
  2. Scott Stallings: +22 on Bermudagrass, +2 on all other surfaces
  3. Martin Trainer: +25 on Bermudagrass, +2 on all other surfaces
    *+ equals total strokes gained | – equals strokes lost

Negative Bermuda Putting Splits, Last 50 Rounds

  1. Rory McIlroy: -5 on Bermudagrass, +25 on all other surfaces
  2. Jason Day: -7 on Bermudagrass, +25 on all other surfaces
  3. Mito Pereira: -5 on Bermudagrass, +6 on all other surfaces

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DFS Golf Picks & Fantasy Golf Rankings for DraftKings & FanDuel

Rory McIlroy: Grades: A+, Values: D, B

With a ton of big names skipping this week, most of the golfing world’s eyes will be on Rory McIlroy at the Valero Texas Open. How he fares will certainly affect his betting odds and popularity for the Masters and his presence at this event, which he last played in 2013, will come with likely the highest ownership in the field. McIlroy has played very well in 2022 and comes in having recorded five top-15 finishes on the PGA Tour to date.

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This venue has always favored elite ball strikers who are trending with solid iron and good around-the-green play, and McIlroy fits both of those lanes. He has gained +2.8 strokes on approach in each of his last two PGA Tour starts and has not lost strokes around the green now in seven straight showings. This longer venue certainly has at least some similarities with another McIlroy favorite in Quail Hollow and should provide a solid stomping ground for him to work out the Augusta kinks and rack up a ton of birdies for DFS in the process. He ranks out as the top fantasy golf pick this week in the Awesemo DFS Golf projections by nearly 7 points, making him chalk worth eating this week.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 30.1% | FanDuel: 46.0%

The Stats:

  • Has gained over +2.0 strokes on approach in each of his last two starts; has not lost strokes around the green in seven straight starts.
  • Ranks second in this field in birdie or better percentage over the last 50 rounds and has four top-15 finishes on the PGA Tour in his last five starts.

Tony Finau: Grades: A, Values: C, D

The year 2022 has not been kind to Tony Finau thus far. The winner of the Northern Trust from last year’s FedEx Cup playoffs has now missed three of his last four cuts and got punted out early last week of the WGC Match Play. Like most slumps that involve top players, things have not been quite as bad as they have looked on the scoreboard for Finau. He gained over 6.0 strokes on approach at the Genesis just three starts ago and also played well to end his event last week, making eight birdies in his final match against Xander Schauffele, whom he beat 4 and 2.

Finau has played Valero numerous times in the past and it is a venue where he is expected to flourish long-term. His main problem of late has been around the greens, where he has lost strokes in five straight starts, but that is also an area he showed vast improvement in last year. Finau’s slump seems likely to end soon and he also is showing up nicely in the Awesemo’s daily fantasy golf point projections. He enters the 2022 Valero Texas Open carrying the best point projection of any player under $9,500 this week. Take the value while you can with Finau, who looks undervalued at $9,100 on DraftKings. As a bonus, he will likely have modest ownership this week in DFS golf contests given his lack of high finishes in 2022.

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Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 13.3% | FanDuel: 9.6%

The Stats:

  • Has played the Valero four times previous and finished third at this venue in 2017, gaining +11.1 strokes ball striking for the week that season.
  • Ranks top 10 in proximity in three of the four major approach zones from 125-yards to 200+ yards over the last 50 rounds.

Awesemo golf betting experts Ben Rasa and Eytan Shander will be coming to you every week on the OddsShopper YouTube Channel with the Putting for Dough golf betting show, where they give you their expert PGA picks and predictions for the week. This week, they are giving their free golf betting picks for the Valero Texas Open 2022.

Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Golf GPP Flier

Doug Ghim

Doug Ghim is a player who seems to have a few things working for him this week. This venue certainly has favored elite iron players, with Corey Conners and Jordan Spieth grabbing the title at TPC San Antonio the last two years. Even the lesser-known winners of recent times have tended to be more well known for their approach and iron play than anything else. Ghim may not be on Conners or Spieth’s level just yet, but he can certainly strike the ball with the best of them. He ranks 26th in strokes gained approach stats over the last 50 rounds and is fifth in proximity stats overall over the same time frame.

Ghim’s elite long iron game is the kind of thing to target this week and he should be confident after gaining strokes putting and around the greens at the very tricky TPC Sawgrass in his last start (sixth). Ghim is trending to be well under 10% owned in Awesemo PGA DFS ownership projections for DraftKings golf this week and looks like he will be a solid upside back at just $7,600.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 3.4%

Top Two Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week

This section will target players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings Golf GPPs. These picks are boom/bust PGA DFS players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

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Danny Lee ($6,800)

Danny Lee is the epitome of boom or bust play in PGA DFS but he has played some decent golf in 2022. He has very solid long iron stats and has been putting well lately, gaining strokes on the greens in five of his last six starts now. Lee finished seventh at this event in 2019 and is the type of player who could pop up this week if his around-the-green game perks up even a bit.

Brandon Hagy ($6,300)

Brandon Hagy had a decent week over in the Corales Puntacana Championship and has now made two cuts in a row. His effort at the Valspar is worth noting too, given that Copperhead is also a tough tee-to-green test similar to what the players will face this week. He showed well with a 21st at that event, gaining strokes in all the major categories. He finished 17th at this event last season and looks like a solid punt target.

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media! DraftKings DFS PGA rankings for this week will be posted at least a day in advance of any tournament. Looking for more DFS PGA predictions and the best PGA DFS picks? The PGA DFS projections, the FanDuel PGA DFS showdown projections for today and the DraftKings DFS PGA ownership projections for today are made and used by Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world.

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