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The Winning Element: PGA DFS Optimizer Picks & Projections for WGC Dell Match Play DraftKings Lineups

Jason Rouslin

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Once a year the World Golf Championships provides one of the best PGA DFS formats. The WGC Dell Match Play event creates unique opportunities to maximize lineups and gain an edge over people that aren’t willing to put in the work. Over 20% of the lineups were dead a year ago before first tee; the industry defined dead as “Teams that had no chance of getting four golfers to make the Final Four.” To help make the most optimal DFS golf lineup, we will go quadrant by quadrant to find the best PGA DFS picks this week.

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WGC Dell Match Play 2022 Matchups Breakdown

Quadrant 1

WGC Dell Match Play 2022 Quadrant 1 Matchups PGA DFS Picks This Week DraftKings

Group 1

Jon Rahm has the only number +150 or better to win their group this week. He lost in the Elite Eight last year, bucking his two-tournament trend of not making it out of the first round. He did finish runner-up here in 2017. His 11-6-3 record is one of the better ones at this event. His group, however, is very strong, with the Patrick Reed as the B player. It doesn’t get any easier from there, as Cameron Young has been a big surprise this season in the vote for rookie of the year. He ranks second among this quadrant in putts per round and strokes gained off the tee with 1.108. He also ranks inside the top 42 in both categories. Sebastian Munoz is the last player in the group and will be looking to win his first match this year after going 0-3 last year.

Most Likely Winner: Jon Rahm

Dark Horse Winner: Cameron Young

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Jon Rahm/Sebastian Munoz

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Jon Rahm/Sebastian Munoz

Group 16

One of the weaker groups based on OWGR, Brooks Koepka is one of the lowest-ranked A players. Both he and Shane Lowry are playing well, with Koepka coming off his best round on tour in sometime with a Sunday 65, beating the field average by almost six and vaulting him up to a tie for 12th with Lowry. Harold Varner has also had a solid year, winning on the Asian Tour and coming in sixth at the Players, while Erik van Rooyen is a threat to make birdie, or bogey, on every hole. With the Masters looming, it’ll be interesting to see what level of intensity Koepka brings after finding a solid groove on Sunday.

Most Likely Winner: Shane Lowry

Dark Horse Winner: Erik van Rooyen

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Erik van Rooyen

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Brooks Koepka

Group 8

Dustin Johnson has had one of the worst starts to a season in recent memory, as he’s only found the top 10 twice in six events and has no top-fives. He’s fallen out of the top 10 in the world ranking. He won this event in 2017, but more recent results haven’t been as good. He failed to make it out of group play in each of the last two Match Play Championships. He’ll face Max Homa, Matthew Wolff and Mackenzie Hughes. Hughes is the only one of the three to have made it out of group play, winning his group last year before losing his Elite Eight match. He has the worst form of the four by far, however, only making two of six cuts over the last 12 weeks and never finishing top 15. Wolff has a top-10 in that same time span and one fewer missed cut, going 3-for-6. Homa, on the other hand, is playing quite well, coming in the top 17 in four straight events.

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Most Likely Winner: Dustin Johnson

Dark Horse Winner: Max Homa

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Max Homa

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Max Homa

Group 9

One of the biggest question marks of the week is undoubtedly Bryson DeChambeau. He hasn’t played professionally since the Saudi Tournament, an event he pulled out of due to injury. He sat out the entire Florida swing as rumors swirled about him joining the new “Liv” golf league. Whatever the case is with that, DeChambeau will play this week and has a relatively weak draw. Talor Gooch has had a breakout season, with a win and a few other chances at another win, his stock has been on the rise. Then there’s veteran Lee Westwood, who has played in numerous Match Play settings over his years but isn’t playing all that well recently, with no top-10s in six events over the last 12 weeks. Richard Bland is the fourth member of this group and will be making his first appearance at the Match Play. Most recently Bland has a second-place finish with two other made cuts against two missed cut in the last 12 weeks.

Most Likely Winner: Bryson DeChambeau

Dark Horse Winner: Talor Gooch

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Bryson DeChambeau

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Bryson DeChambeau

Possible Sweet 16 Matchups & Predictions

Bold = predicted winner of the match

Cameron Young (Group 1) vs. Erik van Rooyen (Group 16)

Dustin Johnson (Group 8) vs. Talor Gooch (Group 9)

Ben Rasa’s Winners: Jon Rahm & Max Homa

Eric Lindquist’s Winners: Brooks Koepka & Bryson DeChambeau

Elite Eight Matchup & Winners

Cameron Young vs. Talor Gooch

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Jon Rahm

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Brooks Koepka

Awesemo golf betting experts Ben Rasa and Eytan Shander will be coming to you every week on the OddsShopper YouTube Channel with the Putting for Dough golf betting show, where they give you their expert PGA picks and predictions for the week. This week, they are giving their WGC Dell Match Play 2022 free golf betting picks.

Quadrant 2

WGC Dell Match Play 2022 Quadrant 2 Matchups PGA DFS Picks This Week DraftKings

Group 4

It is a difficult draw this week for Patrick Cantlay, who is matched up with three formidable opponents. Cantlay has failed to make it out of Round 1/group play in his three trips to Austin Country Club, struggling with a difficult draw last year as well. This year he’ll have to go up against Sungjae Im, Seamus Power and Keith Mitchell. Power and Mitchell have really come into their own over the last six months. Power’s win elevated him in tour status and he hasn’t looked back, putting himself in a few positions to win again. Mitchell’s consistent play has yielded six top-12s in the last eight events. Lastly, Im has been solid this year, averaging positive strokes gained in all four categories. That combination is tough to beat in any format.

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Most Likely Winner: Patrick Cantlay

Dark Horse Winner: Keith Mitchell

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Sungjae Im

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Keith Mitchell

Group 13

This is a sneaky difficult group here, as Tyrrell Hatton will square off against Daniel Berger. Both of them are playing well right now and will have to contend with Si Woo Kim and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. Kim has made it to the Round of 16 once in his four tries, while Bezuidenhout failed to get out of the group stage last year. Berger has failed to make it to the Round of 16 in any format, while Hatton has done it twice.

Most Likely Winner: Tyrrell Hatton

Dark Horse Winner: Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Tyrrell Hatton

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Daniel Berger

Group 5

Arguably the hottest golfer in the world right now, Scottie Scheffler heads back to Austin Country Club where he almost won his first PGA Tour event last year. He’s very consistent off the tee and a very streaky/good putter, which is a difficult combination to beat at this course. He gets a tough draw, however, as he’ll have to face three Ryder Cup regulars from across the pond, as Matt Fitzpatrick, Tommy Fleetwood and Ian Poulter have their fair share of match play expertise. Fitzpatrick doesn’t have great success here, not making it out of group stage or Round 1 one in his five trips, while Fleetwood and Poulter both made it out of their groupings last year after failing to do so in 2019.

Most Likely Winner: Scottie Scheffler

Dark Horse Winner: Tommy Fleetwood

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Tommy Fleetwood

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Tommy Fleetwood

Group 12

The defending champion of the event, Billy Horschel, will be making his first appearance since withdrawing at the Players due to a sinus infection. Before that, however, he was playing very solid golf, averaging over a stroke gained between his putting and off-tee game. That and having a good success around here will make him a tough opponent. He’ll have to contend with one of the big surprises of the year, Tom Hoge, who has broken out and will be a tough match with how aggressively he plays. Thomas Pieters is no slouch either, having a chance to birdie or double bogey every hole on the course; he should be a great fit for this format. The last member of this group still has a lot to prove on the biggest stage, Min Woo Lee, will have another chance at it this week.

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Most Likely Winner: Billy Horschel

Dark Horse Winner: Tom Hoge

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Billy Horschel

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Billy Horschel

Possible Sweet 16 Matchups & Winners

Keith Mitchell vs. Daniel Berger

Scottie Scheffler vs. Tom Hoge

Ben Rasa’s Winners: Sungjae Im & Tommy Fleetwood

Eric Lindquist’s Winners: Daniel Berger & Billy Horschel

Elite Eight Matchup & Winner

Keith Mitchell vs. Tom Hoge

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Sungjae Im

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Daniel Berger


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Quadrant 3

WGC Dell Match Play 2022 Quadrant 3 Matchups PGA DFS Picks This Week DraftKings

Group 2

Collin Morikawa comes into the week in some of the weakest form since joining the tour, with a missed cut and a 68th on his most recent card, but it wasn’t long ago that he finished second at the Genesis Invitational. Instead, he’ll go up against two golfers that have played well in match play in Sergio Garcia and Robert MacIntyre. Jason Kokrak, however, is not playing well and should be an easy match for the entire group. The oddsmakers don’t like Morikawa’s chances to advance as much as Rah0m’s, Thomas’ or Schauffele’s, but Morikawa will likely come with lower ownership because of it.

Most Likely Winner: Collin Morikawa

Dark Horse Winner: Robert MacIntyre

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Collin Morikawa

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Collin Morikawa

Group 15

This is the weakest group by total OWGR by far, with only one golfer ranked inside the top 30 and two outside the top 60. But Brian Harman has shown himself to be a worthy opponent here, making it to the Elite Eight last year, and he is certainly a much better putter than Abraham Ancer. Webb Simpson is still dusting off the rust from his neck injury, and Bubba Watson hasn’t been playing all that well this year outside of the second-place finish in Saudi Arabia. Harman is one of the longer shots that there seems to be a consensus around this week.

Most Likely Winner: Abraham Ancer

Dark Horse Winner: Brian Harman

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Brian Harman

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Brian Harman

Group 7

Group 15 may of the worst strength rating, but this group certainly seems to have the easiest path of advancement for Schauffele this week. Tony Finau has been on a nosedive this year, and the other two, Lucas Herbert and Takumi Kanaya, still have much to prove on the world’s biggest stage. Schauffele should easily advance this week but likely comes with one of the highest ownerships of the slate because of it.

Most Likely Winner: Xander Schauffele

Dark Horse Winner: Tony Finau

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Xander Schauffele

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Xander Schauffele

Group 10

This is a very difficult group, as all four players are elite in some category. Paul Casey’s and Corey Conners’ tee-to-green games are fabulous, whereas Alex Noren is a great putter and has a solid match play record. That all spells trouble for group favorite Louis Oosthuizen in one of stronger groups this week.

Most Likely Winner: Louis Oosthuizen

Dark Horse Winner: Alex Noren

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Louis Oosthuizen

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Louis Oosthuizen

Sweet 16 Matchups & Winners

Xander Schauffele vs. Louis Oosthuizen

Robert MacIntyre vs. Brian Harman

Ben Rasa’s Winners: Brian Harman & Louis Oosthuizen

Eric Lindquist’s Winners: Brian Harman & Xander Schauffele

Elite Eight Matchup & Winner

Xander Schauffele vs. Robert MacIntyre

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Louis Oosthuizen

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Xander Schauffele

Quadrant 4

WGC Dell Match Play 2022 Quadrant 4 Matchups PGA DFS Picks This Week DraftKings

Group 3

Viktor Hovland has been playing some fantastic golf over the last couple of months and more recently has played quite a bit of golf, playing in each of the last three weeks. He gets a tough matchup in Will Zalatoris this week but has a rather soft bottom end with Cameron Tringale and Sepp Straka. Straka, though, will be a tough matchup, as he’s started to find quite a groove with his ball striking over the Florida swing.

Most Likely Winner: Viktor Hovland

Dark Horse Winner: Will Zalatoris

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Viktor Hovland

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Viktor Hovland

Group 14

This is the weakest group by average salary and the only group in which a C player is the favorite to advance, as Russel Henley looks to continue his solid 2022 campaign. Joaquin Niemann is having a hard time finding much love on the oddsmakers, even after his brilliant performance at the Genesis Invitational a few weeks ago. Kevin Na is just coming back from having a child and is likely very sleep deprived. Lastly, Maverick McNealy gets Sam Burns’ spot in the field this week, which is likely why this group is so weak.

Most Likely Winner: Russel Henley

Dark Horse Winner: Joaquin Niemann

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Joaquin Niemann

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Maverick McNealy

Group 6

Justin Thomas comes into the week in pretty top form and gets a difficult draw. Kevin Kisner, a former winner of the event, and grinder Marc Leishman will be no easy match. Then Luke List is a dark horse as well if he makes a couple of putts; his tee-to-green game is up there with the best of them. It’ll be no easy task for Thomas to advance out of his group this week.

Most Likely Winner: Justin Thomas

Dark Horse Winner: Kevin Kisner

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Justin Thomas/Marc Leishman

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Justin Thomas/Luke List

Group 11

Thomas’ buddy Jordan Spieth, on the other hand, drew a rather easy grouping. Adam Scott has struggled with his off-tee game in 2022 and will absolutely hurt him here this week. Justin Rose has not regained his top form yet, and Keegan Bradley is a mess putting inside of six feet. Spieth was another consensus pick to advance this week.

Most Likely Winner: Jordan Spieth

Dark Horse Winner: Keegan Bradley

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Jordan Spieth

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Jordan Spieth

Sweet 16 Matchups & Winners

Will Zalatoris vs. Joaquin Niemann

Jordan Spieth vs. Justin Thomas

Ben Rasa’s Winners: Viktor Hovland & Jordan Spieth

Eric Lindquist’s Winners: Maverick McNealy & Jordan Spieth

Elite Eight Matchup & Winner

Will Zalatoris vs. Jordan Spieth

Ben Rasa’s Winner: Viktor Hovland

Eric Lindquist’s Winner: Luke List

Final Four

Jason: Cameron Young ($7,000), Tom Hoge ($6,800), Xander Schauffele ($9,600), Will Zalatoris ($8,600)

Ben: Jon Rahm ($11,300), Sungjae Im ($8,200), Louis Oosthuizen ($9,000), Viktor Hovland ($10,300)

Eric: Brooks Koepka ($9,400), Daniel Berger ($9,800), Xander Schauffele ($9,600), Luke List ($6,400)

Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media! Yahoo! PGA DFS rankings for this week will be posted at least a day in advance of any tournament. The DFS PGA projections for DraftKings, the PGA DFS showdown projections for FanDuel and the DFS PGA ownership projections are made and used by Alex Baker, the No. 1 DFS player in the world. Looking for more DFS PGA lineups and DFS PGA DraftKings picks?

Jason established his roots in the littlest state that could...Rhode Island. But after 29 years of bitter cold, and only being able to play golf 4 months a year, upended those roots and moved to Florida. Now four years later, Jason is a husband to Sarah and father of two boys, James & Myles. A dog and more specifically Lab lover (Bella), he dedicates his time to serve as the lead of PGA content at Awesemo.com. In the time he is not diving into the PGA stats and covering this week's current tournament, you can find him researching and trading stocks, on the golf course, at Disney World, on a hike, or somewhere in between. Want to chat? Have a question about Golf/Stocks or anything else? Hop on twitter and give him a message @dfsgolfer23. You can also contact Jason by emailing [email protected].

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