DraftKings and FanDuel NBA DFS Deep Dive: October 25th

Guard

Luka Doncic had a strong first game of the season against the Wizards and he gets to face the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. The Pelicans will probably be one of the fastest teams in the NBA this season and Doncic contributes in all categories. He averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute last season with a 30.9 percent usage percentage, 13 percent rebounding percentage and 31.4 percent assist percentage. Doncic had the fifth-highest usage percentage in the preseason among regular rotation players and he had a 36.8 percent usage rate against Washington in the opener. He also tied with Dorian Finney-Smith for the team lead with 13 potential rebounds and led the Mavs with nine potential assists against Washington.

Kyrie Irving had a monster performance in his first game with the Nets. He torched the Minnesota Timberwolves for 50 points, eight rebounds and seven assist in 38 minutes, including overtime. Irving had a 40.2 percent usage rate in the game and led Brooklyn with 15 potential assists. He also had 14 rebound chances in the game. Irving averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute with Boston last season and we could see him be even more productive this season as the Nets have less mouths to feed around him. He gets a favorable matchup against a Knicks team that is unlikely to be good defensively this season.

Bradley Beal scored 19 points with nine assists and six rebounds in 31 minutes before being ejected in the season opener against Dallas. While that stat line doesn’t stand out, Beal had the opportunity to produce a much better line. He had 25 field goal attempts (35.4 percent usage rate) against the Mavericks, but made only seven shots. He also had 16 potential assists compared to four potential assists for Washington’s starting “point guard” Ish Smith.

While we shouldn’t necessarily expect Beal to continue averaging 18.1 potential assists per 36 minutes, it would lead to an expected assist percentage of 40.4 percent. The point here is that, as expected, Beal dominated the offense in terms of usage and playmaking opportunities. He is a point guard at the shooting guard position and will need to carry this Wizards team.

Jrue Holiday was extremely disappointing in his first game of the season, but we shouldn’t be particularly concerned. Holiday had a 28.2 percent usage percentage without Anthony Davis on the floor last season and, while this year’s team is totally different than last year’s, there isn’t anyone that I expect to pick up Davis’s scoring more than Holiday. In addition, Holiday led the team with 16 potential assists in 41.1 minutes of play. Nobody else on New Orleans had more than 10 potential assists per 36 minutes in the game. The Pelicans only converted on six of Holiday’s 16 potential assists, which is part of the reason for his poor stat line. This is a nice bounce-back spot for Holiday if people are going to be scared away.

Chris Paul played 30.1 minutes in his Oklahoma City debut as the Thunder lost a low-scoring game at Utah. Tonight’s game against the Wizards should be played at a faster pace and Paul should have a big role in this offense. He had a 24.3 percent usage rate in the opener and had 11 potential assists in his 30 minutes of play. He was also second on the team to Steven Adams with 11 rebound chances. The only knock against Paul is that he is probably not going to play more than 30-32 minutes consistently, but his salary accounts for that as he is only $7,200 on DraftKings and $8,400 on FanDuel.

Elfrid Payton is expected to start at point guard for the Knicks tonight as the Trier-Barrett backcourt experiment seemingly will last only one game. There is still nothing safe about Payton, which is the case for almost every player on the Knicks because their rotations will fluctuate from game to game, but there is a ton of upside. He played 26 minutes off the bench against the Spurs and led the team with 13 potential assists.

He started the second half and played about 19.5 minutes in the second half. While I obviously don’t expect him to play close to 40 minutes tonight, there is at least the potential for him to get into the low-mid thirties- especially if he is playing well. Even if he only plays 26-28 minutes, he is a reasonable value at $4,600 on DraftKings and $5,700 on FanDuel at a guard position that doesn’t have nearly as much quality value available as the forward position.

Forward

Anthony Davis was disappointing (by his standards) in his first game with the Lakers as he scored 25 points with 10 rebounds and five assists on 8-of-21 shooting. Davis had a career high in post-up possessions and the pick-and-roll game that we expected to see from Davis and LeBron James was noticeably absent. The Lakers staggered Davis and James, which should be good for Davis’s production as long as someone on the second unit can get him the ball. The eventual return of Rajon Rondo should help in that regard. Davis has a tough matchup tonight against the Utah Jazz, but he is still extremely affordable at $10,000 on DraftKings. Davis led the Lakers with 18 rebounds chances and he was second to James with six potential assists. He won’t be available at this price point for long.

LeBron James is even cheaper than Davis on DraftKings as he sits at $9,500. James picked up 18 points, nine rebounds and eight assists against the Clippers in the first game of the season. He had 20 potential assists, 14 more than second-place Anthony Davis, and was third on the team with 12 rebound chances as well. We should see about 36 minutes out of James and he is obviously one of the best players in the league. He is one of the best point-per-dollar plays on the slate on DraftKings and he offers a ton of value as one of the only trustworthy small forward options on FanDuel.

Pascal Siakam had a monster game against the New Orleans Pelicans as he played 38.1 minutes in regulation before fouling out. Siakam scored 34 points with 18 rebounds and five assists as he took on a bigger role without Kawhi Leonard. Siakam had a 29.3 percent usage rate in three preseason games and followed that up with a 35.0 percent usage rate against the Pelicans. He also was third on the Raptors with seven potential assists and had 24 rebound chances. Siakam has a tough matchup against the Celtics and there are several power forward options available at his price point- in addition to solid value at the position. He is especially valuable on FanDuel where he is an $8,800 small forward.

Julius Randle performed well in his first game of the season and he should be a strong DFS performer this season as he has the opportunity to do a variety of things in the Knicks’ offense. He led New York with a 25.3 percent usage rate in the opener while playing 35.4 minutes. He also led New York with 15 rebound chances and was third with six potential assists. New York has a respectable 110 team total tonight and the offense should once again run through Randle.

Kristaps Porzingis disappointed from a DFS standpoint in his Dallas debut as he scored 23 points with four rebounds and two assists in 29 minutes against the Wizards. Dallas stated before the game that Porzingis was going to play into the low-to-mid thirties at most and he finished at 29. While that could be seen as a negative for Porzingis, I don’t see it that way because I think that Dallas took advantage of a relatively non-competitive fourth quarter to rest Porzingis for a couple of extra minutes. His salary dropped on DraftKings and he is reasonably priced at $8,500 on FanDuel as well.

Porzingis will have a tremendous size advantage in this game as the Pelicans will throw a combination of Brandon Ingram, Nicolo Melli and Kenrich Williams at him. Ingram is 6-foot-9 and weighs 190 pounds, Melli is 6-foot-9 and weighs 235 pounds and Williams is 6-foot-7 and weighs 209 pounds. By comparison, Porzingis is 7’3 and weighs 240 pounds.

Nemanja Bjelica will start for the Sacramento Kings with Marvin Bagley sidelined. While Bjelica has a wide range of potential minutes because of the number of interchangeable pieces on the Kings, he is cheap enough that the reward at his price tag far outweighs the risk. Bjelica averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute for the Kings last season. He is one of the top value options on the slate.

Richaun Holmes is another value option from the Kings. Holmes has been a productive fantasy player in the past when he gets playing time. He averaged 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 1,164 minutes for the Suns last season and 0.98 DraftKings points per minute in 712 minutes for the 76ers the season before that. Holmes could see additional playing time tonight with Bagley sidelined. He didn’t play any minutes alongside starting center Dewayne Dedmon in the opening game against the Suns, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he won’t tonight- especially against a big Portland frontcourt that features plenty of Zach Collins alongside Hassan Whiteside.

Even if Holmes only keeps his role as the back-up center and plays around 18 minutes, he is cheap enough that he can pay off the price tag anyway. If he does pick up a few additional minutes alongside Dedmon, he offers tournament-winning upside.

Treveon Graham was a surprise starter against the Nets on opening night and he is starting again tonight for Minnesota. Graham has never been a productive fantasy performer and it is very difficult to trust him. That said, he does have a couple of things going for him at a near minimum salary. First, he played 35 minutes in the opener. Five of those minutes were in overtime, but 30 minutes at a minimum salary is valuable. Second, he was actually involved in multiple categories for the ‘Wolves. He only had a 14.6 percent usage percentage and he is obviously the fifth option behind Karl-Anthony Towns, Andrew Wiggins, Jeff Teague and Robert Covington.

That said, there are plenty of peripheral stats available on this team as Wiggins does absolutely nothing but score and Teague isn’t an elite peripheral performer either. Against the Nets, Graham was third on the team with seven potential assists and third on the team with 15 rebound chances. If he is projected for high ownership he is an easy fade because he doesn’t have a high ceiling but, if he isn’t going to be popular, he makes for an interesting value option in tournaments.

Robert Williams and Daniel Theis should each have opportunities tonight against the Toronto Raptors with Enes Kanter out. Neither player played more than 11 minutes in the opener, but they will be needed tonight against a big Toronto frontcourt. Kanter played 25.0 minutes in the opener and those minutes obviously need to be filled. This is a tough matchup, but Williams averaged 1 DraftKings point per minute in 282 minutes last season while Theis averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute in 907 minutes.

Center

Karl-Anthony Towns had a great outing against the Nets in Minnesota’s opener and he gets a favorable matchup tonight against the Charlotte Hornets sans Cody Zeller. There is nobody on the Hornets that should be expected to slow down Towns. Bismack Biyombo can’t defend Towns away from the basket (or probably anywhere), Guillermo Hernangomez can’t defend Towns anywhere on the floor, and Marvin Williams and P.J. Washington give up quite a bit of size to Towns.

Towns is essentially matchup-proof anyway as he does everything well on the floor. He averaged 1.52 DraftKings points per minute without Jimmy Butler on the floor last season with a 29.9 percent usage percentage, 20.8 percent rebounding percentage and 18.2 percent assist percentage. He is one of the top overall plays on the slate again tonight.

Nikola Jokic scored 20 points with 13 rebounds and two assists in just 24 minutes against the Blazers in Denver’s opener. His playing time is not concerning at all as he picked up three fouls in the first 3:45 of the game and sat the rest of the first half. He has a cake matchup against a weak Suns’ frontcourt that is missing DeAndre Ayton. Jokic led the Nuggets in usage percentage (27.9), rebounding percentage (18.9) and assist percentage (36.2) last season.

Hassan Whiteside contributed 16 points and 19 rebounds in 26 minutes against Denver in his first game with Portland. The Blazers closed with Zach Collins at center, which isn’t ideal for Whiteside, but that is something that I think could vary on a game to game basis. Whiteside has a strong matchup against the Kings tonight as I don’t expect Dewayne Dedmon or Richaun Holmes to do much to slow him down. It is also a pace-up spot for the Blazers so there should be more rebounding and block opportunities for Whiteside.

I’m not one to factor in “Narrative Street”, but Whiteside is a player that tends to struggle with motivation and the man hates the Kings so, if that is something you believe in, that is also there. Whiteside averaged 1.37 DraftKings points per minute last season with Miami and has a favorable matchup tonight where he should produce at a higher rate.

Dewayne Dedmon only played 14.2 minutes against the Suns so there is certainly risk in trusting him tonight. The absence of Marvin Bagley should help to solidify his minutes somewhat as the Kings are without one of their most important frontcourt bodies. Dedmon averaged 1.05 DraftKings points per minute with the Hawks last season and he is only $4,100 on DraftKings where the opportunity cost is lower since you can roster two centers.

Author
Adam "ShipMyMoney" Scherer has been playing and analyzing DFS full-time since quitting law school in 2016. He has qualified for the 2016 FanDuel MLB Playboy Championship, the 2016 DraftKings Fantasy Baseball World Championship (3x) and the 2019 DraftKings Fantasy Basketball World Championship. You can find him on Twitter at @ShipMyMoneyDFS or by emailing [email protected].

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