PITCHERS
Zack Greinke [R – HOU]
Greinke normally wouldn’t be a priority pitching option at such a high price point, but Monday’s slate presents us with a unique set of circumstances. Pitching is a barren wasteland tonight, featuring bullpen games from three different teams and sub-20 percent strikeout rate from eight of 16 arms. Anthony DeSclafani leads tonight’s pitchers with a 24.7 percent K-rate, and he’s wildly overpriced on DraftKings against the Nationals.
Greinke is punching batters out at only 23.3 percent, but he’s been fantastic otherwise, leading all pitchers in WHIP (0.97), xFIP (3.82), IP (152), BB-rate (3.9%) and HR/9 (0.75) this season. His opponent (CWS) owns a slate-low 3.6-run implied total, and Greinke is a -262 favorite at Guaranteed Rate Field. Naturally, Greinke is the safest option on Monday even if his ceiling isn’t the same as most pitchers priced in this range — but none of those pitchers are toeing the rubber this evening.
Greinke makes more sense on DraftKings and Yahoo than FanDuel. Almost every pitcher is overpriced on the DraftKings and two pitchers are required on Yahoo even if Joey Lucchesi is affordable. Lucchesi is wildly underpriced on FanDuel, making him the top cash game option ahead of Greinke.
Joey Lucchesi [L – SD]
Lucchesi will be chalk on FanDuel ($7,600) and Yahoo ($35), which is perfectly reasonable given the dearth of options at his position combined with a dirt cheap salary on Monday. Lucchesi is a respectable -128 favorite inside the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, where the Rays own the second lowest total (3.9) on the slate. Tampa Bay isn’t a bad baseball team, but they do struggle against left-handed arms, ranking 20th in wOBA (.316), ISO (.169) and wRC+ (98), while striking out at the league’s sixth highest clip (23.9%).
Lucchesi is striking right-handed hitters out at 22.9 percent, so he certainly isn’t an elite arm from a swing-and-miss perspective. Neither is anyone else on Monday’s slate, though, meaning we can look to opponent implied run totals and run prevention. Only the White Sox own a lower total than the Rays tonight, and only Greinke has a lower xFIP and WHIP than Lucchesi (4.21, 1.18). Ultimately, the value we’re getting with Lucchesi on FanDuel and Yahoo is too good to pass up on a slate that is completely devoid of quality pitching.
Anthony DeSclafani [R – CIN]
DeSclafani could actually be worth targeting on FanDuel and Yahoo tonight, given his matchup and projected low ownership compared to a similarly priced Lucchesi. DeSclafani should face six righties in the Nationals lineup tonight, which will benefit him in Washington. I’m not saying this matchup comes without concerns, but given DeSclafani’s splits there’s definitely a way he could exploit it.
Cincinnati’s right-hander is striking right-handed hitters out at 26.6 percent, and boasts a slate-leading 24.7 percent K-rate overall. He’s holding righties to a .261/.150 wOBA/ISO with a 0.98 WHIP and 3.30 xFIP this season, so if the Nats do in fact run out their typical righty-heavy lineup, DeSclafani could be poised for success. Washington’s active roster strikes out at a league average 22.1 percent clip vs. RHP and ranks 17th in wRC+ (95) this season.
I have no problem with deploying DeSclafani at $8,000 on FanDuel and $37 on Yahoo, where he is projected for six and 13 percent ownership, respectively. Lucchesi is projected for 33 percent ownership on FanDuel and 52 percent on Yahoo.
Jose Suarez [R – LAA]
Suarez has struck out a batter per inning over his first ten outings, but that is a very misleading stat. He’s averaging only 4.2 innings pitched per start and is striking batters out a pedestrian 21.9 percent of the time. Moreover, home runs have been a tremendous problem for Suarez, who’s surrendered a whopping 14 home runs (2.72 HR/9) across 46.1 innings pitched. Interestingly, Suarez is allowing an average 5.7 percent barreled balls per plate appearance, but a 46.8 percent fly ball rate and 41 percent hard hit rate don’t bode well for the young southpaw. His 21.5 percent HR/FB rate will normalize at some point, though, especially considering Suarez did an impressive job of limiting power at the minor league level.
The one benefit to rostering Suarez tonight is his matchup, but not the matchup as a whole. The Pirates don’t strike out at a high rate vs. LHP (20%), but they’ve been dismal at the plate in every other respect. Pittsburgh ranks bottom three in wOBA (28th), ISO (29th) and wRC+ (30th) vs. southpaws, while drawing walks at a league-worst five percent clip. Their 4.6-run total ranks fifth lowest on Monday, and third lowest among teams who are facing actual starting pitchers. I can see why Suarez might be getting some ownership, but he’s still a middling mid-range pitching option at best.
Austin Pruitt [R – TB]
Pruitt was recently recalled from Triple-A, and will make his second appearance with the Rays since rejoining the club. Pruitt’s pitch count is certainly in question, especially since he was used as a reliever during his last minor league stint, but tonight’s pitching is so depleted that Pruitt might not need more than a few innings to justify a spot in our lineups. He’s minimum salary on DraftKings ($4,000), and faces a Padres team that strikes out at a Goliath 26.5 percent clip vs. right-handed arms. San Diego’s .309 wOBA and 91 wRC+ is underwhelming, and although they do possess some power (.182 ISO), this isn’t a team that makes life difficult for opposing righty pitchers.
Pruitt was striking out 24.8 percent of batters at Triple-A this season, but has only recorded 17.7 percent strikeouts with the Rays. We should see some improvement there going forward, as Pruitt is generating some solid swing and miss numbers on his slider (19.7% Whf) and changeup (14.3% Whf). He owns a respectable 11.3 percent swinging strike rate across 22.2 innings. Ultimately, the decision to target pitching all the way at the bottom makes sense on a night where paying up to the mid-range will likely yield underwhelming results.
Brock Stewart [R – TOR]
Stewart is another minimum salary long reliever worth paying attention to on Monday. I’m certainly not enamoured with Stewart’s stuff, but he’s projected to have near identical ownership to Erick Fedde [R – WAS] on DraftKings, who owns a heinous (and slate-low) 12.6 percent K-rate with 7.3 percent swinging strikes and a 5.22 xFIP. I don’t see the reason to pay an additional $2,200 for Fedde over Stewart or Pruitt, who despite not being starters can earn the win without pitching five innings and are no more likely than Fedde to disappoint.
On a Coors Field slate, you’ll be looking for ways to spend up on hitting — especially with pitching having zero trustworthy options outside of Greinke, and to some extent, Lucchesi. I prefer Pruitt over Stewart, but both can be mixed into lineups based solely on their $4K price tags. I have nothing statistically that would back up rostering Stewart tonight outside of the equally gruesome numbers from every pitcher priced above him.
HITTERS
STACKS
Rockies (7.3) vs. Kelly [RHP]
It’ll be very difficult to come in underweight on the Rockies tonight, who boast a 7.3-run implied total against Merrill Kelly at Coors Field. Kelly has been tagged for a ton of power recently, surrendering six home runs and 17 earned runs over his last three starts. He doesn’t miss many bats and is allowing 46.2 percent hard contact to left-handed bats. The 88-degree temperatures in Colorado won’t do him any favors, either.
Yankees (7.5) vs. Eshelman [RHP]
New York boasts a slate-high 7.5-run implied total against Tom Eshelman, who has been blasted for a .260 ISO and 2.90 HR/9 across his first 31 innings pitched. Eshelman is striking batters out at 14.2 percent and owns a dismal 5.70 xFIP. It’s hard to believe he’ll stand any chance of competing tonight, even if the Yankees run out a more watered down lineup in their second of a doubleheader. Penciling some bench players into their lineup might actually make them an easier team to stack on Monday.
Diamondbacks (6.9) @ Lambert [RHP]
Arizona draws a mouthwatering matchup with Peter Lambert, who owns a slate-low 6.9 percent swinging strike rate, 16.3 percent K-rate and 1.58 WHIP this season. Lambert is coughing up a whopping 2.13 HR/9 with a .265 ISO. As long as balls are being put in play against Lambert at Coors Field, he’s going to be in for another long night.
Honorable Mention: Astros (6.1) @ Cease [RHP]; Rangers (5.6) @ Stewart [RHP – BPG]
