Awesemo’s projections take a data-driven approach to fantasy football and DraftKings best ball. This leads them to some unique rankings. It also results in users of the rankings leaving drafts with very few, if any, shares of certain players. Who are the fives biggest fades based in our projections for best ball on DraftKings, FFPC and more? Let’s get into some Best Ball fades using Awesemo’s fantasy football rankings for DraftKings, FFPC + more!
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DraftKings Best Ball Rankings: Five Fades Based off Awesemo’s Fantasy Football Rankings
Sony Michel and Deebo Samuel
The optimistic outlook for injured players is that they will return to 100% health in due time and be difference makers down the stretch. This is rarely the case, though, as injuries often beget more injuries and hamper production when the player is on the field. Julian Edelman and Dez Bryant notably popped up on the injury report frequently after undergoing foot surgery. Bryant suffered an ankle sprain that ended his season after returning too early from foot surgery in 2015.
Both Michel and Samuel underwent foot surgery this offseason. Reports indicate that Samuel is likely to miss at least a few games, and the Patriots signing Lamar Miller don’t help the optics on Michel’s recovery either. If either hits the PUP list, they’ll be sidelined six weeks.
Beyond the immediate zeroes and possible downgraded play when they’re active, these two will also burn valuable rosters spots in Best Ball. This could cost their fantasy teams crucial waiver wire additions or force them to cut a player with real value. All of the negative consequences make both of these players (and any other players that suffer preseason injuries) immediate and easy fades. Michel and Samuel are the fifth- and sixth-biggest fades in Awesemo’s fantasy football rankings.
Jerry Jeudy
The Broncos are destined to produce at least one fantasy flop. Drew Lock‘s 204 passing yards per game was 29th in the league last year. Then, the team went out and signed Melvin Gordon to a two-year, $16 million dollar deal. Denver is either still committed to their run-first approach or willing to pass, but either way they are loaded with weapons. Those include rookies Jerry Jeudy, K.J. Hamler and Albert Okwuegbunam, plus the returning Noah Fant and Courtland Sutton. Fant earned 66 targets as a rookie tight end, and Sutton was a Pro Bowler in his second professional season.
Not everyone can be valuable in this offense, and Awesemo’s projections have the rookie in a truncated season taking the hit. Jeudy broke out in his second season on a stacked Alabama squad and ran a 4.45 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. However, on an offense with an established alpha in Sutton, his rookie season projection is looking grim. Jeudy is the fourth-biggest fades in Awesemo’s fantasy football rankings.
Jordan Howard
Drafting a Miami Dolphins running back is already risky. The best week a Dolphins back produced was RB20 last year. Even with Best Ball optimized scoring, Miami backs were not making your lineups. Pro Football Focus ranked them as having the league’s worst offensive line. This is a team that was unable to produce any notable weeks from a running back and finished the offseason with a miserable unit in the trenches.
This would be acceptable if Howard had some chops as a pass catcher. That style of back can survive on receptions while getting stuffed on their limited amount of carries. Howard is the opposite of a receiving back. Only 9.4% of Howard’s career touches have been receptions. For reference, Howard’s teammate Matt Breida has 448 career touches, 15% of which have been receptions. Howard will be relegated to a between the tackles on a team that has no use for that job.
Miami’s average margin in 2019 was -11.8 points. They were one of just two teams to post a scoring margin worse than -10 points. This team will be passing often and running with horrid efficiency when they choose a grounded approach. That makes Howard a horrid bet in 2020 for Best Ball leagues or otherwise. Howard is the third-biggest fades in Awesemo’s fantasy football rankings.
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Kyler Murray and the Cardinals
Awesemo’s rankings simply don’t like the Cardinals. That same PFF ranking had the Cardinals as a bottom-half offensive line, and Murray’s biggest weakness as a rookie was taking sacks. His 48 sacks were tied for the most in the league. Within the Kliff Kingsbury offense, Murray was also an incredibly tepid passer. This led to him having a measly 7.3 average pass distance. The conservative offense trickled down to his top receiver as well. Larry Fitzgerald and Christian Kirk finished outside the top 60 wideouts in yards per target. This offense was designed to make incremental gains on short routes. That’s already a passive way to accrue fantasy points and drops their collective ceiling in Best Ball formats. Add in a bad line and it becomes miserable.
The addition of DeAndre Hopkins should boost the overall efficiency of the offense but the cost has to be considered. Hopkins is being drafted at the end of the first round as if Odell Beckham and Allen Robinson didn’t just flop after changes teams. Moving to a new quarterback and a different scheme in a few months isn’t easy and consistently sidetracks even elite receivers. Acquiring Hopkins was a good move by Arizona, but the market has become too enthralled with the hype around this team. Awesemo’s rankings have Hopkins, Murray, Kenyan Drake and Kirk as overvalued at their current draft positions. Murray is the second-biggest DraftKings best ball fade in Awesemo’s fantasy football rankings.
Rob Gronkowski
Rob Gronkowski is the single worst pick inside the top 150 based on Awesemo’s rankings. Our projections have a number of tight ends as bad values but none more so than the maybe greatest ever at the position. In 2018, Gronkowski posted 52.5 yards per game over 13 games. That average was his worst mark since 2010 (his rookie season). His 9.5 yards per target were also a four-year low. During that season, he suffered ankle and back injuries.
Now Gronkowski has to compete with better receivers than he ever has before. Chris Godwin and Mike Evans accounted for 45% of Tampa Bay’s targets and 58% of the team’s air yards through Week 14. No receiving duo combined for a higher market share in either category to that point in the season.
Gronkowski is a tight end on the wrong side of history and health. Now he’s playing with receivers who are going to push him to the outer bounds of target relevancy. Fade him in Best Ball, season-long and any other format. Gronkowski is the biggest fades in Awesemo’s fantasy football rankings.
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