Fantay Football Mock Draft with the Seventh Overall Pick | Based off Awesemo’s Projections

In this series, we’ll look at a mock draft conducted from each draft slot and break down the best choice and some alternatives at each selection. We’ll look at the individual player selection, but also how each player fits into the overall roster construction of the team, and then look at what selection Awesemo’s rankings would have made. The mock is for a three-receiver, two-back, half-PPR league. Here we look at winning your fantasy football draft with the seventh overall pick.


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Fantasy Football Mock Draft from the 7th Overall Pick

Mock Draft 1.07 Selection: Derrick Henry

Alternative: None

Henry finished the 2019 seasons as a force of nature, ripping off long gains at will. He averaged 4.1 yards per carry … after contact. From the time a defender attempted to tackle him to the time he was brought down, Henry gained an extra 4.1 yards. That’s more than many backs averaged on entire plays. His ascendance coincided with Ryan Tannehill taking over, and while both will fall short of their insane efficiency numbers from 2019, Awesemo’s rankings still have Henry getting more carries than nearly every other back.

Regression or not, Henry’s volume stands ahead of most backs, and volume is the biggest predictor of fantasy success. That makes him the top pick at this spot.

Mock Draft 2.06 Selection: Travis Kelce

Alternative: DeAndre Hopkins

Kelce has been the TE1 in three of the past four seasons. He has two of the 10 best tight end seasons ever by yards and receptions. There’s no reason he won’t post his fourth TE1 season in 2020.

Hopkins and Kelce both tend to go before this pick and both were on the table. However, Awesemo’s rankings have Hopkins taking a step back in Arizona while Kelce continues to smash. Kelce is the perennial TE1 and, along with George Kittle, is one of the two ways to gain a massive edge at the position.

Mock Draft 3.06 Selection: Cooper Kupp

Alternative: Adam Thielen

If these series of mock drafts were a portfolio of teams, Kupp would be in contention for the highest-owned player. Kupp smashed last year with 94 catches, 1,161 yards and 10 scores. He did this while rotating in and out of the lineup to get Brandin Cooks or a second tight end on the field. With Cooks out of town and Tyler Higbee clearly setting himself apart as the better tight end, Kupp’s role should expand in 2020, leading to an even better season.

Hopkins was easy to pass on in the previous round because players like Kupp and Thielen were available. Awesemo’s rankings prefer both over Hopkins, but each goes at least a round later.

Mock Draft 4.07 Selection: Leonard Fournette

Alternative: Chris Carson, Le’Veon Bell

Despite his reputation as a plodding, grinder of a back, Fournette was used in all phases of the game last year. He finished second in the league with 22.7 touches per game on the back of 76 catches. Fournette was also fourth in red zone touches (54) on a team that rarely made it inside their opponent’s 20. He is the cheapest all-purpose back in drafts right now.

Awesemo’s rankings have a pileup of running backs as the best options here. Bell, Carson and Fournette are listed one after another in the rankings, but Fournette has the highest ADP. Taking him increases the odds that another one of the trio makes it back in the fifth round.

Mock Draft 5.06 Selection: Raheem Mostert

Alternative: Terry McLaurin, Stefon Diggs

T.Y. Hilton was the ideal pick here, but he was taken two spots before this selection. That left Mostert, who averaged 89.4 yards and 1.4 scores in his final eight games (including playoffs), as the best option. He’ll likely regress in 2020 and break fewer long runs, but that is more than baked into his cost.

Using data from hundreds of real drafts, one of Carson or Bell makes it to this pick in roughly 25% of the time. Those odds aren’t great, but it was worth the gamble, and Mostert is a fine consolation prize.


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Mock Draft 6.07 Selection: Stefon Diggs

Alternative: None

Diggs was possibly the most efficient receiver in the league last year. Only A.J. Brown topped Diggs’ mark of 12 yards per target but Diggs saw slightly more targets overall. Add his ability on deep routes to Josh Allen‘s cannon for an arm and Diggs could post career numbers in Buffalo.

Diggs and McLaurin are ranked back-to-back, so missing on McLaurin turns out to be fine. This team did run a serious risk of getting shut out of viable receivers at this pick, so be wary when going heavy on running back for most of five rounds.

Mock Draft 7.06 Selection: A.J. Green

Alternative: Matt Ryan

Green has been injured on and off for years but his talent is undeniable. While catching passes almost exclusively from Andy Dalton, a backup level quarterback, Green has averaged 80.2 yards per game over his career. Now he gets Joe Burrow, who is talented enough to be an upgrade over Dalton from Week 1. There’s a substantial amount of injury risk with Green, but the upside is too great to pass on in the seventh round.

Receiver was still a need for this team, and Green was the top option per Awesemo’s ranks. Matt Ryan would have been a viable pick here, but his ADP suggests he’s available in the middle of the eighth-round in most leagues.

Mock Draft 8.07 Selection: Matt Ryan

Alternative: James White, J.K. Dobbins

This was probably a reach based on ADP, but Awesemo’s rankings are in love with Ryan. Our projections have him attempting more pass attempts than any other passer by nearly two throws per game. His 41.5 attempts per game are still a conservative outlook based on the Falcons throwing the ball 42.8 times on average last season. With most of those throws heading to the league’s best receiver duo in Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones, Ryan is set for another top-five season.

The only downside with taking Ryan is that he’s currently not stacked with any of his teammates on this roster. Hayden Hurst is still on the board so, hopefully, that changes in the next round.

Mock Draft 9.06 Selection: Hayden Hurst

Alternative: None

Hayden Hurst won’t be a one-for-one replacement of Austin Hooper, but he doesn’t have to be to return value at this spot. Hooper was targeted 97 times in 13 games last year and caught 75 balls for 787 yards. If Hurst captures a large portion of that volume, he’ll be a top-five tight end like Awesemo’s rankings have him pegged as.

Ryan and Hurst have their outcomes intrinsically tied. Both need the Falcon to pass 40 or more times per game to hit their respective ceilings. Ryan doesn’t have the legs to add rushing value, and Hurst won’t command a high enough target share to produce unless this team is airing it out every game. Anytime you can make multiple picks with correlated odds, you should be doing so.

Mock Draft 10.07 Selection: Phillip Lindsay

Alternative: Mike Williams

Awesemo’s projections don’t see Lindsay owning a fantasy-relevant role, but the rankings recognize that his situation is unique. Lindsay has averaged 4.9 yards per carry en route to 2,048 yards through two seasons with Denver. Melvin Gordon joins the team in a shortened offseason after posting one season of over four yards per carry in five years. If Lindsay doesn’t surpass Gordon on the depth chart, his role will be minimal. However, there is a real chance he’s simply better than Gordon and starts a handful of games this year.

This team is set on running backs, so the remaining picks would be devoted to finding production at wide receiver. Awesemo’s rankings are particularly fond of James Washington and N’Keal Harry as late-round fliers.

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Author
If you like fantasy football and care about data, there's a 50/50 chance I've written for your favorite site. In a few short years I've covered, season-long, dynasty, best ball, and DFS for football. I used to be watching games and pretend to know what I was talking about but now I just spew numbers that forecast outcomes better than any scout. Come for the numbers, stay for the bad jokes and Zach Zenner references. RIP XFL.

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