Welcome to Awesemo’s Fantasy Football Best Ball Report 2.0. This will be a weekly feature leading up to the 2021 NFL season that will focus on all things related to best ball for the past seven days. It will check in on Underdog Fantasy ADPs (using 4for4 ADP Tool) and look at the NFL fantasy football top risers and fallers over the past week. We will sort the top player news stories on NBC Sports Edge, as this is the main source of news that seems to impact the rise or fall of players’ ADPs. This column will also examine any additional trends that might help fantasy players get ahead of the curve when it comes to players’ ADP value.
The more you play in best ball leagues the more you are going to become addicted to the format. The more teams you draft the more players you are going to have exposure to, and with that we want to search out when it is OK to buy a player and when to avoid a certain player. Best ball can be compared to being a day trader in the stock market, as the best ball season runs from February to September.
Underdog Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft ADPs & News
We are looking at weekly ADP shifts on Underdog Fantasy to see how player values are moving with the news around the league. Drafting in best ball means always looking for values when drafting players. For high-volume best ball players, the goal is always to try to limit the number of times one overpays for a player, and the best way to help with this is tracking ADP movements.
Top 20 ADP Risers (July 18 — 25)
Rank | Player | Pos | Pos Rank | Team | Current ADP | Change in ADP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
92 | Darrell Henderson | RB | 1 | LAR | 92.5 | -35.0 |
194 | Xavier Jones | RB | 2 | LAR | 195.1 | -21.9 |
137 | Tre’Quan Smith | WR | 1 | NO | 136.7 | -8.6 |
205 | Marquez Callaway | WR | 2 | NO | 205.4 | -7.6 |
148 | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 3 | NE | 149.4 | -6.3 |
207 | Devontae Booker | RB | 3 | NYG | 206.7 | -6.0 |
116 | A.J. Dillon | RB | 4 | GB | 114.7 | -4.5 |
201 | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 5 | PHI | 199.5 | -4.3 |
181 | Phillip Lindsay | RB | 6 | HOU | 184.7 | -3.9 |
166 | A.J. Green | WR | 4 | ARI | 167.1 | -3.8 |
206 | Taysom Hill | QB | 1 | NO | 206.5 | -3.3 |
189 | Chuba Hubbard | RB | 7 | CAR | 191.5 | -3.2 |
138 | Emmanuel Sanders | WR | 5 | BUF | 137.7 | -3.1 |
191 | Nico Collins | WR | 6 | HOU | 194.5 | -3.0 |
169 | Dyami Brown | WR | 7 | WAS | 169.9 | -2.9 |
152 | Alexander Mattison | RB | 8 | MIN | 151.8 | -2.9 |
173 | James White | RB | 9 | NE | 174.6 | -2.6 |
160 | J.D. McKissic | RB | 10 | WAS | 162.4 | -2.5 |
186 | D’Wayne Eskridge | WR | 8 | SEA | 190.3 | -2.4 |
53 | Brandon Aiyuk | WR | 9 | SF | 53.9 | -2.3 |
The interesting part from this week’s top 20 risers is that the top four players are all the results of the Cam Akers and Michael Thomas news. With Akers out for the season, Darrell Henderson jumped up 35 spots in ADP, and his direct backup, who was not even on the scene a week ago, is up 21.9 spots in ADP. The Nos. 3 and 4 risers are Tre’Quan Smith (8.6 spots) and Marquez Callaway (7.6 spots). There should be no surprises in all four of these risers, as the easiest way to adjust after a player injury or negative news is that the direct players on that team’s depth chart are just going to get a bump up in value and opportunity. Another interesting take here is Taysom Hill sneaking into the top 10 with a 3.3-slot increase with the Thomas news. Another trend in the top 20 risers would be the rise of some handcuff running backs in Devontae Booker, A.J. Dillon, Kenny Gainwell, Phillip Lindsay, Chuba Hubbard, Alexander Mattison, James White and J.D. McKissic. This is a direct result of what happened with the Rams and Akers. People are paying more attention to who will step in if star running backs get injured. When drafting RB4-6, these are more the type of players to target in hopes they are top of the depth chart if the guy ahead of them goes down.
Top 20 ADP Fallers (July 18 — 25)
Rank | Player | Pos | Pos Rank | Team | Current ADP | Change in ADP |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
197 | Jameis Winston | QB | 1 | NO | 196.5 | 12.0 |
35 | Michael Thomas | WR | 1 | NO | 36.2 | 9.5 |
203 | Zach Ertz | TE | 1 | PHI | 203.4 | 5.7 |
118 | Leonard Fournette | RB | 1 | TB | 118.0 | 4.1 |
188 | Kadarius Toney | WR | 2 | NYG | 191.4 | 3.7 |
210 | Tarik Cohen | RB | 2 | CHI | 208.2 | 3.7 |
96 | James Robinson | RB | 3 | JAX | 96.2 | 3.6 |
89 | Jalen Hurts | QB | 2 | PHI | 90.1 | 3.3 |
112 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | 3 | GB | 113.2 | 3.2 |
105 | Ryan Tannehill | QB | 4 | TEN | 106.2 | 2.7 |
113 | James Conner | RB | 4 | ARI | 113.2 | 2.6 |
200 | DeSean Jackson | WR | 3 | LAR | 198.1 | 2.6 |
66 | Myles Gaskin | RB | 5 | MIA | 67.3 | 2.5 |
123 | Melvin Gordon | RB | 6 | DEN | 123.4 | 2.5 |
164 | Jared Cook | TE | 2 | LAC | 165.2 | 2.4 |
195 | Denzel Mims | WR | 4 | NYJ | 195.5 | 2.3 |
124 | Gus Edwards | RB | 7 | BAL | 124.0 | 2.3 |
114 | Tony Pollard | RB | 8 | DAL | 114.5 | 2.2 |
233 | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 9 | NE | 214.5 | 2.0 |
84 | Dallas Goedert | TE | 3 | PHI | 86.5 | 1.9 |
The biggest faller is Jameis Winston; as people were finally starting to settle into the idea of him being the starting quarterback, he takes a hit with Thomas going down for half the season. Now the speculation is Hill gives the Saints the best shot at winning without Thomas. Zach Ertz falling is likely with the news that he will remain on the Eagles to start the season, and Dallas Goedert also cracked the top 20 fallers because of it. The goal is to get players with more opportunity, and Ertz and Goedert hurt each other for production. Rumors of Deshaun Watson coming to Philadelphia have also dropped Jalen Hurts’ value, and Hurts might have been overvalued to begin with because drafters are desperate to find that value running quarterback. Leonard Fournette is another faller, and it is basically because he posted an anti-vaccination tweet. Any sort of negative news will help drop a player’s ADP.
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Rookie Contracts Signed — Travis Etienne, Trey Sermon, Elijah Moore, Javonte Williams, Amari Rodgers, Josh Palmer and Anthony Schwartz all signed four-year contracts.
PUP List — Amari Cooper, Saquon Barkley, Kyle Rudolph, Cameron Brate, Justin Watson, Tarik Cohen and Dazz Newsome. With these players all on the PUP list, their ADPs could take a hit. Cooper and Barkley are most likely to only take a small hit, though, as they are star players and will have name value to help save them.
Deshaun Watson, QB, HOU — Watson is expected to report to Texans training camp. Watson avoided the Commissioner’s Exempt List. Now the wait is on Texans or the NFL to make a move. This might be the first positive news on Watson in months to look for his ADP to climb.
Aaron Rodgers, QB, GB — Las Vegas sportsbooks are “preparing for Aaron Rodgers to retire.” Rodgers’ offseason continues to be a roller coaster, one that will continue to see his ADP take a hit because of it. Rumor has it that Rodgers also is looking for $90 million guaranteed over two years.
Jonnu Smith, TE, NE — Smith is recovering from a hamstring injury for the past month but will be ready for the start of training camp.
Cam Akers, RB, LAR — Akers will miss the 2021 season with a torn Achilles tendon. Henderson will now be the lead running back with Akers out. Xavier Jones looks like the backup behind Henderson, and both will have ADPs that will rise over the next few weeks.
Michael Thomas, WR, NO — Thomas would miss weeks of the 2021 regular season. The exact timetable for Thomas’ recovery is unknown, but the early word is a late October return. Look for Thomas’ ADP to take a dip and for Smith, Hill, Marquez Callaway, Latavius Murray and Adam Trautman’s ADPs to go up.
Zach Ertz, TE, PHI — Ertz remains with the Eagles, and there is a good chance he will start the season with the team.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE — Stevenson is now on the non-football injury list.
Blake Jarwin, TE, DAL — Jarwin continues to battle back from his ACL tear in Week 1 last year.
Deandre Hopkins, WR, ARI — With the NFL’s COVID-19 vaccination policy, Hopkins made headlines with his “making me question my future” in the league comment. There could be a slight dip in ADP because of his words/tweet.
Kadarius Toney, WR, NYG — Toney has been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list.
Davante Adams, WR, GB — Adams has “broken off long-term extension talks” with the Packers. Adams’ ADP is already discounted with all the Aaron Rodgers drama, so this news probably does not hurt his current ADP at all.
Dak Prescott, QB, DAL — Prescott is practicing fully without restrictions at training camp. This is a great sign for Prescott coming back from a gruesome ankle injury.
Dede Westbrook, WR, MIN — Westbrook signs a one-year contract with the Vikings.
Anthony Miller, WR, HOU — Miller looks to get a fresh start with the Texans as they acquire him via trade with the Bears. Look for Miller to be a riser in next week’s report.
Joe Burrow, QB, CIN — Burrow has been cleared for training camp and will be a full go.
Best Ball Industry News
- Underdog Fantasy — The Puppy 2 is rumored to be coming back in August. On a bigger scale, Underdog’s $25 buy-in for the BBMII ($1 million to first) is 45.% full with 70,400 of 155,500 entered. Underdog also released a $250 buy-in that has 20 rounds and has a top prize of $100,000. Also ,with everyone hammering the “exposure” tool after the Akers injury, it broke for a few days. As of Sunday it looks like it is back up and running.
- DraftKings — There are three tournament options this year, with a $20 (150 max, $1 million top prize), $3 (20 max, $50,000 top prize) and $555 (59 max, $250,000 top prize). DraftKings also offers “Sit & Go” leagues that are three-, six- and 12-man options from $1 to $1,060.
- BestBall 10s — They have a $10 entry fee tournament with 3,000 total teams up for grabs and a top prize of $5,000.
- Yahoo! — Yahoo has no best ball tournaments, but they do have $1, $5, $10, $20, $50, $100, $250 and $500 10-man leagues. With the Yahoo best ball product, players are limited to 50 total drafts for the season. These are 10-man leagues and have prizes for top three and also have top weekly score prizes.
- Drafters — Drafters is running a Best Ball Championship tournament, which has a twist to it, as it is the overall top scoring team wins and does not offer a playoff round style like DraftKings and Underdog. The entry fee is just $5.55, and the contest is nearly halfway full (4,550 of 10,008). Top prize is $10,000 with a $50,000 total prize pool.
- FFPC — Entry fees range from $35 to $1,250. The biggest difference in FFPC is that they have 28 roster spots but include kickers and defenses.
- FanDuel — There are no tournament options currently on FanDuel, but they do have three-man, 10-man and 12-man leagues from $1 to $50.
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