KBO DFS: Overview for DraftKings + FanDuel | May 22

So, about those KBO bullpens. Last night saw another two games decided with late rallies in what’s becoming something of a trend that KBO DFS owners are starting to notice. The Wyverns and Heroes needed 10 innings to decide their game. After the Wyverns scored 2 in the 8^th to take an 8-7 lead, the Heroes lived up to their name tying it with 1 in the bottom of the 9^th and winning it in walk-off fashion in the 10^th. The mighty Dinos offense was mostly stymied by the Bears with a lone 1^st inning run against the starter, before scoring a run in each of the 7^th and 8^th innings then dropping a whopping 9 runs in the top of the 9^th to win a 12-6 affair.

It makes sense that these bullpens would be somewhat unreliable. A thin overall pitching pool will have a natural trickle-down effect where the best of the talent is going to largely be in the rotation, with the weaker arms heading to the pen to fill out the low-leverage roles. It’s still very early in the season but knowing which of these bullpens to attack could provide some edge for KBO DFS owners.

I decided to take a bit of a dive into ranking the KBO bullpens. This required compiling some data manually, so here’s hoping I didn’t screw anything up or leave anyone out. Primarily, we want to know which of these bullpens are the most likely to yield scoring to offense, as we’re not rostering any bullpen players. To get to this point I wanted to look at a few key metrics: FIP, k/9, bb/9, and hr/9, which I calculated and ranked for the KBO’s 10 teams. It’s imperfect and we are extremely early in the season, so be wary of the curse of small sample sizes when considering this information. I’ll update this data periodically for as long as we care about the KBO.

So just from this quick snapshot we can glean that the KT bullpen is by far the weakest in the league thus far. Giving up the most home runs and striking out the 2^nd fewest hitters is going to do that to your rank. Interestingly the SK bullpen is one of the better strikeout pens, but they’ve allowed too many free passes and given up too many homers. This is valuable information to have in your pocket as you review Awesemo’s projections and the top stacks tools.

The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.

As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.

With lock still hours away (5:30am), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.

Final footnote before we dive in, Josh is off this week so keep an eye out for some starting pitching notes as we go through games here.

KBO DFS Picks: Game Breakdown for DraftKings + FanDuel

Hanwha Eagles @ NC Dinos – 9 run total (4.12/5.21) – Suggested Stack:  – Eagles 1-4

The Eagles come into Changwon to face everyone’s favorite KBO team, the NC Dinos. Apparently the Dinos fans in Korea have caught onto the team’s growing popularity. After the Durham Bulls, Tampa’s AAA team, tweeted that they were jumping on the Dinos bandwagon fans in Korea began jokingly referring to the team as the North Carolina Dinos. The Hanwha squad got a nice night out of their bats, picking up 7 of their 9 runs in a big 3^rd inning. Tonight, they draw the Dinos big 20-year-old lefty, Young-gyu Kim ($23/$5.5k). Kim’s 2020 is off to a strong start, across his 11 innings the sophomore starter has struck out 9 hitters and walked none, although he has given up 3 home runs in his two starts. Kim is currently projecting as Awesemo’s 2^nd highest starter on FanDuel and 3^rd on DraftKings; his $5,500 price on DraftKings is particularly appealing and KBO DFS owners should take notice. Knowing that they’re facing a young starter with a bit of a habit for giving up the long ball, it makes sense to look to the Eagles power hitters here. Projected 3-hitter Jared Hoying ($11/$5.0k) has 49 home runs in his 276 game KBO career and ranks in the top 5 of my HR model tonight, despite the lefty-lefty matchup. Hoying carries a strong projection tonight on both sites, and is inexpensive on FanDuel, where KBO DFS owners can get to basically any Eagles stack they’d like tonight.

After last night’s late fireworks, The Dinos can officially never be counted out of a game. Tonight, they draw the tall order of trying to hang some runs on Eagles ace starter Warwick Saupold ($27/$8.7k). Saupold has looked dominant so far through 3 starts in 2020, yielding only 4 earned runs on 15 hits in 22 innings. Saupold is also carrying a nearly 4:1 strikeout to walk ratio and has yet to give up a home run this year. With all of that in mind, Awesemo’s projections are still not high on Saupold tonight, the Dinos simply pack too much punch with their powerful lineup. Getting to a mix of upside and low ownership in the middle of this order seems like a good approach. After the popular and obvious 3 and 4 hitters we have Suk-min Park ($11/$4.4k) and Jin-hyuk No ($10/$3.2k) who each pack enough pop in their bats to deliver a big game as part of your Dinos stack. Projected 7-hitter Jun-sung Kang is someone you may want to go under the field with, his numbers are uninspiring. Keep an eye on Altherr’s spot in the batting order prior to lock as well.

 Kia Tigers @ SK Wyverns – 10 run total (5.95/4.42) – Suggested Stack: Kia 1-3-4-5 (chalky)

The 8-7 Tigers come into Incheon to take on the disappointing 2-12 Wyverns tonight. With the Wyverns dropping a heartbreaker late against Kiwoom last night, they are in desperate need of something good to happen as they look to right the ship early in what was supposed to be a strong year for them. The Tigers are winners of 3 straight and looking to keep that momentum rolling while putting a boot on the neck of a rival. Wyverns starting pitcher Joo-han Kim ($24/$4.0k) ranks dead last in Awesemo’s projections tonight. Kim is a newly converted reliever who has made 3 disastrous appearances so far this season out of the terrible SK bullpen (2^nd to last in our rankings). In those 3 relief spots Kim has given up 5 earned runs in 1 complete inning pitched (2/3, 1/3, 0). With his most recent appearance coming just on the 19^th where he gave up a run and threw 17 pitches, it will be interesting to see how much leash Kim is given on the hill tonight. With this matchup in mind, the Tigers have got to be on KBO DFS owners’ radar again. This offense is simply too good to be ignored against a pitcher this bad, but they will likely be popular, making it important to get to a few differentiated points in the lineup. With monster projections on both sites, the 3-4-5 hitters for the Tigers should be incredibly popular. Projected 2 hitter infielder Sun-bin Kim ($9/$4.2k) fits in nicely with those 3 and could provide some savings. Kim has been a bit under our radar so far but is off to a capable start to his 2020. The issue will always be power but hitting 2^nd in a very productive lineup should continue to provide opportunities to both score and drive in runs, and Kim has been delivering so far this year. Looking further down the lineup, Joo-hwan “no, the other one” Na ($5/$2.6k) is not a very good hitter but could be a low-owned inexpensive point of differentiation hitting 7^th or 8^th at the bottom of a stack.

Twins starter Hyun-jong Yang ($27/$9.0k) is one of the best non-import starters in the league and carries Awesemo’s highest pitching projection on both sites. Yang should be a popular option despite a high price tag. Yang offers both a KBO-strong k/9 history as well as a career’s worth of keeping the ball in the stadium, yielding a HR/9 over 1 only twice in his 13-year career; in 2019 Yang’s HR/9 was an absurd 0.29 in 184.2 innings pitched. This is a starter worth paying up and eating some chalk for. The Wyverns lineup will try to get things in gear, the top 5 hitters all carrying acceptable projections on both sites. The issue with SK is that after 5 the batting order seems to completely fall off a cliff, offering up no production and no good options for us here. From a pricing and popularity standpoint we can work with the early Wyverns hitters. Slugger Jamie Romak ($12/$5.8k) is one of the Wyverns who might be able to get on top of Yang enough to put one out. Pairing him in a two-man with the 3 or 5 hitters, or going up to underpriced 1 and 2 hitters, outfielders Kang-min Kim ($8/$2.9k) and Eui-yoon Jeong ($7/$2.1k), could be a sneaky and inexpensive approach to the slate.

KT Wiz @ LG Twins – 9 run total (4.49/4.83) – Suggested Stack: Twins 2-3-4-6

This one features a matchup of two teams with explosive offenses who have already had big games this week. It will be interesting to see how the low run totals hold up when the action gets going. With two import starters on the hill, odds-makers might not be giving these offenses enough credit. The Twins are rolling Casey Kelly ($25/$7.8k) out again tonight. Kelly ranks right around the middle of pitching projections, looking to carry forward some momentum from his successful 2^nd start, a 6-inning 3-hit 5-strikeout gem against Kiwoom. The Wiz are carrying a middling run total and some unimpressive projections into this one. With pricing still very high on their key hitters it will be tough for KBO DFS owners to justify getting to full KT stacks tonight. There might be some sneaky value toward the top of the lineup if the Wiz are going to do damage, infielders Woo-jun Sim ($11/$2.7k) and Min-hyeok Kim ($9/$4.3k) are capable hitters in the first two spots in the lineup, but the projected 3 hitter Yong-ho Jo is a black hole where RBIs go to die.

Making the 4^th start of his KBO career, former MLB starter Odrisamer Despaigne ($21/$8.3k) is Awesemo’s 3rd highest projected starter on FanDuel, where he appears to be dramatically underpriced. It will be interesting to see what that number does to Despaigne’s popularity, box score watchers will see a very strong start to the season with 18 strikeouts to only 2 walks over 17 innings so far. Despaigne will be a strong option for KBO DFS most nights he takes the mound. Another interesting thing to watch tonight will be the ownership on the LG Twins given the matchup and their relatively disappointing performances the last two games. Pricing on the Twins remains high to appropriate on FanDuel, but they are still well under where they should be on DraftKings, and it might be a good spot to take advantage. Hitters like Roberto Ramos ($16/$3.3k) and Eun-sung Chae ($12/$2.6k) are both at points where their price is more appealing than their matchup is intimidating. We would also do well to remember that early in the season KT has had by far the league’s worst bullpen. Even if Despaigne goes 6 or 7 strong innings the Twins won’t be fully out of it, and if they can chase him early they could feast in a low-owned spot.

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Doosan Bears @ Samsung Lions – 11 run total (6.18/5.21) – Suggested stack: Bears 1-3-4-5 (chalky)

The Bears have had a quiet week compared to how they roared out of the gate earlier this month. Losing usual 3-hitter Jae-il Oh to injury has taken a toll on this lineups ability to get rolling the last two days. Taking on the Lions here could be a quick fix for that problem in the game with tonight’s highest run total. The Bears are carrying an implied total over 6 and look like the powerhouse option of the night. Samsung’s starter Ben Lively ($21/$7.3k), is getting no love from the oddsmakers in this one. Lively is off to a poor start in 2020 and he was forced to leave his last start after just 1 inning. Lively ranks next to last in Awesemo’s pitching projections today and is only an option for owners looking to scoop a contrarian play. The Bears offense is the way to go in this one. Looking at the Doosan lineup the usual suspects in the middle are going to be super popular tonight. In the interest of trying to find some different options, lets look at the Kims hitting 2^nd and 6^th. In-tae Kim ($5/$2.4k) is hitting 2^nd and will see plenty of opportunity to get on-base ahead of the productive hitters behind him. Kim is by no means a star, but he has shown some ability to drive the ball in the gap in his limited experience. Jae-ho Kim ($9/$2.8k) has a bit more power and gets on base well above a league-average clip. Hitting 6^th in the lineup should provide this Kim enough RBI opportunities to make him valuable to a Bears stack, but he might go overlooked in favor of more popular also affordable teammates.

Veteran hurler Yong-chan Lee ($20/$8.2k) has not had a strong start to his 2020 campaign for Doosan. Lee has had a few very good years in the KBO in his 12-year career but saw diminished returns in each of the last two campaigns. Giving up 14 earned runs and 3 homers in 11 innings to start this season isn’t a way to fill KBO DFS owners with confidence and this is reflected in his middling projection tonight. Based solely on price and what should be low ownership I suppose you could argue that playing Lee is viable on FanDuel, but that’s not my plan. On DraftKings he’s just way too expensive for this spot. Despite being the underdogs here, the Lions are carrying a strong implied total in the mid-5s and they could be a sneaky option. There are affordable hitters up and down the lineup on FanDuel, with prices being a bit higher on the key bats on DraftKings. Looking to the heart of the order with 2-3-4 hitters Dong-yeop Kim ($9/$2.8k), Ja-wook Koo ($9/$4.5k), and Won-seok Lee ($8/$4.0k) gets you to a strong projection at a very low price. All 3 have the power to drive the ball out of the park and should see a fair amount of opportunity to knock in some runs and put some points on the board for you tonight. This one looks like a war on paper, cue the 1-0 pitcher’s duel.

Kiwoom Heroes @ Lotte Giants – 9 run total (5.24/4.09) – Suggested Stack: Heroes 2-5

The Heroes come into Busan after swiping a dramatic 10^th inning victory from SK last night. They’ll be taking on the fading Lotte Giants, who have fallen to 7-7 on the year after losing 4 straight games. The Giants starter Kyung-eun Noh ($23/$7.4k) fails to inspire much confidence that this will be the night they get things back on track. For his career, Noh simply allows too many baserunners, although he did clean this up in 2019 for a sparkling 1.19 WHIP. Typically, Noh operates more in the 1.5 or higher range while not striking out many hitters. The Heroes should be able to jump all over a guy like this, with some of our favorites carrying solid projections on the night. Projected 3-hitter Jung-hoo Lee ($14/$4.2k) doesn’t hit many homers, but he does everything else with the bat very well. Limiting strikeouts and getting on base at a .402 clip over his first 3 full seasons, the 21-year-old is a star who should see a lot of opportunity tonight. The one thing he doesn’t do well is judge stolen bases, with a 71% success rate for his career. So, hope he gets on and doesn’t decide to run before someone else in your stack can drive him in.

The Giants were fun there for a while, weren’t they? Unfortunately, after seducing some new fans with an exciting start to the season, this team seems to be regressing back toward what they were expected to be. Coming into the year KBO experts were telling us that Lotte was in rebuilding mode and we shouldn’t expect much from them. That’s how we’ll be treating them unless they prove us wrong over a large sample size. Jake Brigham ($24/$8.4k) gets the start for the Heroes today, looking to really get his year going. While he hasn’t been bad by any means, Brigham has underperformed somewhat, and lands in the middle of Awesemo’s projections tonight. Depending where ownership is trending as we approach lock this is a spot that I might be looking at closely. If Brigham is going underowned because people still believe in the Giants, it could be an opportunity for owners to jump on. That said, I’m not getting too excited about a guy unless he’s carrying a huge projection. The Giants offense has been sputtering, and there’s not a ton of power in the HR model tonight. Awesemo’s projections seem to agree, with everyone looking highly “meh” for this one. If you’re inclined to get to the Giants there’s always aging cleanup hitter Dae-ho Lee ($13/$4.1k), who has been mentioned here a few times. Lee’s raw projection is slightly lower than a few of his teammates, but if you’re looking at the Giants you’re looking to hit a grand slam with your lineup construction, Lee is the guy who could do it for you, both literally and figuratively.

Favorite Stack: Doosan

HR Call: Jared Hoying (Hanwha)

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