If you missed it, we’ve got tonight’s Spotlight Pitchers split into a separate column for tonight’s KBO DFS action. If you’re looking for some great hitting and stacking options, you’re on the right page.
Last night’s slate was action packed once again, with a couple late nail-biters, another collapse by the terrible KT bullpen in the late innings, and monster performances by Doosan’s Jose Fernandez and Hanwha’s Moon-ho Kim. GPPs on the night were once again swung by the pesky Lotte Giants who renewed my belief that they’re using this column for motivation after I once again pegged them as regressing yesterday. The extremely low ownership on all of the key Giants was critical in getting to the top of the leaderboard last night.
Tonight’s slate has some whopping implied team totals to consider along with some lopsided ownership projections on the higher-end options. Doosan and Kiwoom are two of the more powerful offenses in the league and are both taking on non-entity relivers in starting roles tonight. They are going to be justifiably massively owned. Getting to undervalued pieces of those offenses or finding a different direction in which to build lineups is going to be a key to victory for KBO DFS owners tonight.
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.
With lock still hours away (1:00am), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
KBO DFS Picks: Hitting Breakdown for DraftKings + FanDuel
KT Wiz @ LG Twins – 11 run total (5.14/6.25) – Suggested Stack: Twins 1-4 (8-9 wraparound for low ownership)
A whopping 11 run total in the early game isn’t the largest on today’s slate but should provide tremendous opportunities for KBO DFS players on both sites. These two teams played a 6-5 ball game last night, with key hitters delivering fair value up and down both lineups. The Twins made owners sweat, waiting until the 7th to break out against the terrible KT bullpen, which we highlighted yesterday as the league’s worst. With a team total above 5 the Wiz’s league-leading offense looks to be in prime position again here, but Awesemo’s pitching projections don’t hate the opposing starter, and the Wiz rank around the middle of the top stacks tool. Their limited ownership has some appeal for me here and is worth watching. We know this offense primarily revolves around cleanup hitter Baek-ho Kang ($16/$5.8k) and 5-hitter Mel Rojas Jr. ($15/$6.0k) who are both pricey but almost mandatory parts of the KT stack. Both hitters look good in Awesemo’s projections tonight and only Rojas is drawing significant ownership. While I mostly like the 3 hitters ahead of them for options to fill out the stack, infielder Kyung-soo Park ($10/$3.5k) offers a solid bat from lower in the lineup and will likely be drawing less ownership.
The Twins offense is loaded with professional hitters who know how to put bat on ball. They work counts, foul off pitches, and put the ball in play in play, effectively eroding the opposing pitching staff until they break through. They might not have to wait long tonight against a young starter with ugly numbers on his ledger. The Twins have affordable playable options up and down their lineup in the projections tonight, they rank 3rd in the top stacks tool on both sites and are the highest team without a gigantic ownership number. We discuss the top of this order all the time, and they are a great option again tonight, but they will also be popular. Looking to the bottom of this lineup could be a good way to get different and catch some lightning. We’ve mentioned catcher Kang-nam Yoo ($8/$3.5k) a couple times, he has a more than capable bat in the 25 doubles 15 home runs range. Projected 9-hitter, shortstop Ji-hwan Oh ($7/$3.3k), lacks noteworthy home run power, but has 6 years with more than 20 doubles and the speed to steal a base. Mixing a bit of these two into stacks would be a different way to get to this lineup and doesn’t carry quite as much risk as the bottom of a lot of other KBO lineups.
Hanwha Eagles @ NC Dinos – 9.5 run total (3.9/5.99) – Suggested Stack: Dinos 1-3-4-5
The Eagles offense has started to roll a bit this week, but they draw a low implied team total here tonight against Dinos’ ace Drew Rucinski. The import starter has had a good start to his 2020 after an excellent first year in the KBO and is one of the better pitching options for KBO DFS owners tonight. Rucinski will be popular on both sites tonight so the best way to think about an Eagles stack is as a contrarian leverage play. There’s not a lot to love here, with a 3rd to last ranking in the top stacks tool and some ugly projections. 20-year-old second baseman Eun-won Jung ($8/$4.7k) is projected to lead off and has an interesting price on FanDuel where he is essentially unowned. Stacking from 1 through 4 or 5 is the approach here, no need to get cute with constructions.
The Dinos mashers are going to be an interesting test for young Min-woo Kim tonight. Kim has had a strong start to his year, but the career numbers don’t track to this type of performance necessarily holding up. With nearly a 6-run implied team total it looks as though oddsmakers agree. The Dinos rank 4th on both sites in the top stacks tool, but you won’t be sneaking up on anyone with their key bats. This is another team that projects well through most of the lineup, with quality professional hitters throughout. Awesemo has 7 of the 9 Dinos hitters with a projection over 11FDP/8DKP. Infielder Suk-min Park ($11/$4.3k) broke out of a weeklong drought with a home run last night and now has 4 on the young season. With 248 career homers in the KBO and a .909 career OPS this is a hitter who can drive the ball and produce for KBO DFS owners in any plate appearance. Current ownership projections have him coming up a bit overlooked, don’t make that mistake with your Dinos stacks.
Kia Tigers @ SK Wyverns – 8.5 run total (4.85/3.94) – Suggested Stack: Kia two man 3-4
The Tigers finally quieted down a bit last night just barely squeaking past the Wyverns with a 2-1 victory. They look to get the offense in gear gain here against a converted lefty reliever. Tae-hoon Kim only stands 5’9” on the mound but has been a quality strikeout arm out of the bullpen through his career so far. The suppressed run total in this one suggests that the oddsmakers like him to continue his capable start to 2020. The Tigers rank in the bottom half of the top stacks tool tonight, and Awesemo’s projections are only decent for the top 5 hitters in the lineup. Frequent mention Ji-wan Na ($7/$3.5k) remains too cheap on both sites but is pulling a lot of ownership. The pricier Preston Tucker ($16/$6.2k) and Hyung-woo Choi ($12/$5.4k) are just as good an option with far less ownership. A two-man could be an affordable approach.
The cellar-dwelling Wyverns dropped another one last night and are rapidly becoming irrelevant early in the 2020 season. Taking on import ace Aaron Brooks isn’t going to be a recipe for getting back on track here tonight either. Brooks is atop Awesemo’s pitching projections and will be very popular, making the Wyverns only interesting in the leverage role, but they offer little probability of success. The top stacks tool has the Wyverns dead last on both sites for good reason, but they are drawing next to no ownership on either site. The top of the order is the spot to make your stand if you’re looking for that type of play. There is enough savings in the top 2 bats Kang-min Kim ($8/$3.1k) and Eui-yoon Jeong ($7/$2.3k) that you can stack their expensive teammates with them easily.
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Doosan Bears @ Samsung Lions – 11.5 run total (7.11/4.85) – Suggested Stack: Bears 4-7 (FD) / Dealer’s choice (DK)
This one presents a classic dilemma for KBO DFS owners tonight. Ride the chalk or fade the chalk? The Bears are carrying the KBO’s largest implied team total of the year so far at more than 7 runs. The Lions pitcher is a gas-can of a reliever who has already made 5 appearances to ugly results this year out of the pen. This has all appearances off a punt game by the Samsung pitching staff. On top of that it comes in the KBO’s most favorable hitters park. The Bears most relevant bats are all priced up and carrying over 25% ownership on DraftKings and more than 30% on FanDuel. Despite the quality, despite the spot on paper, given the variance involved in baseball and the overwhelming popularity of this stack, it’s tempting to look elsewhere. I can’t blame you if you want to build your house out of chalk tonight, however. If you’re looking at the Bears you know the obvious choices with the big prices from the top and middle of the lineup. On DraftKings where owners are required to roster certain positions everyone will be popular, but on FanDuel you might find some sneaky builds with the projected 6-hitter, infielder Jae-ho Kim ($9/$2.8k) and 7-hitter, catcher Se-hyuk Park ($7/$3.1k).
The Lions limited offense will try to keep up with the Bears against starter Raul Alcantara. They rank slightly better in the top stacks tool on FanDuel than they do on DraftKings, where they present less value. Leadoff hitting infielder Sang-su Kim ($9/$4.9k) isn’t a very good hitter and barely gets on base above league average, which should make you question why he’s leading off for a modern baseball team. He does offer some speed if he gets on and he hits in front of the only hitter I do like in this lineup tonight, outfielder Ja-wook Koo ($9/$4.2k). A very low-owned two man if you’re feeling particularly bold and don’t care about losing money.
Kiwoom Heroes @ Lotte Giants – 10 run total (6.22/4.19) – Suggested Stack: Heroes 1-2-4-5
The Heroes are in almost as good a spot here against the Giants In-bok Lee as the Bears are in their game. With a total over 6 the oddsmakers like this one but aren’t quite as overwhelmed by it, while the top stacks tool ranks them 2nd on both sites but is forecasting them to be slightly higher owned than their probability of leading the field. Working in a lower-owned piece of this lineup in your Heroes stack is going to be an important approach for KBO DFS owners tonight. While the meaty projections are on the 1-5 hitters in this lineup, it might pay to include projected 6-hitter Ji-young Lee ($6/$3.4k), who is carrying low ownership with a fair projection on both sites.
The Giants just keep on surprising. Every time I think they’ve submitted to regression they’ve bounced back so far this year. Tonight’s implied total reflects their matchup against import starter Eric Jokisch. The Giants rank toward the bottom of the stacks tool on both sites and are filled with red and yellow in our conditional formatting. This is not a good spot on paper. The Giants have thrived in this type of spot on paper so far in 2020, but much like the previous 20 spins on a roulette wheel, that has absolutely no impact on tonight’s likely outcome. If you’re going to the Giants again Jun-woo Jeon ($14/$4.2k) and Dae-ho Lee ($13/4.0k) are a solid two-man or starting point for a full stack, with the top two numbers for the Giants in Awesemo’s projections.
Favorite Stack:
HR Call: Jae-hwan Kim (Doosan)
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