Last night’s slate felt and looks on paper like it should have been more friendly to me. One that got away, I guess. With most of the 54 runs that were scored on the night coming from teams we were expecting and that I had gotten significant exposures to, it just comes down to how things snapped together. On the plus side, team Awesemo Slack had another killer day, so a big congrats to all the winners.
The slate last night was high scoring but saw only one team crack the 10-run mark, with the Lions running up 13 on Heroes pitching. Runs were scattered throughout the other games on the slate, the Bears had the second highest total at nine with the Wiz and surprising Eagles putting up eight and nine runs respectively. Several of the Bears bats were keys to unlocking GPP success. The chalky Twins came through to a degree with a six run night as well.
On the pitching end Chang-mo Koo dominated at massive ownership. The starter made it a challenge to get to the right bats given his price tag, but his score was a critical piece of the puzzle for most of the lineups at the top of tournaments again. The key to winning came down to getting the best second starter with Koo who would also allow the combination of some of the important bats. That pitcher turned out to be KT starter Je-seong Bae, which I’ll be the first to say I did not see coming.
KBO DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Hitters
With four games all registering no chance of precipitation and one in a dome we should be good to go coming into lock once again. There have been some lineup shakeups recently and we have a few key players making their way back. One name to watch is Min-woo Park, the Dinos leadoff hitter who has been out since the end of June. We’ll get to him and everyone else and see if we can find a few good angles into tonight’s slate.
The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.
As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.
With lock still hours away (5:30 A.M. EST), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.
KT Wiz @ Kia Tigers – 9.5 run total (5.06/4.64) – Suggested Stack(s): Wiz 2-6
The Tigers got out of the gate early in this one with a first inning two-run homer by Preston Tucker, but that would be the entirety of their scoring. Wiz starter Je-seong Bae went six strong innings striking out nine Tigers along the way, making him mandatory for success last night. The Wiz bats were a big part of winning constructions last night as well, with a lot of the main pieces of the order contributing to their 8-2 victory.
Tonight, the Wiz get Min-woo Lee who is a step down in quality from Ki-young Im, but who has not been pitching too poorly so far this season. Lee is never going to be a great option in your pitching spot, but he’s been good enough at limiting scoring so far this season to appear better than he is. This is a decent spot for bats tonight. The Wiz rank fourth in the stack tool and they’re trending toward going well under-owned. Keep an eye on the backend of the lineup tonight, we could see some movement in and out. For now, we’re projecting a similar lineup to what has been working well lately for the Wiz. Yong-ho Jo ($8/$2,700) remains hot atop the lineup and sets the table well for Jae-gyun Hwang ($11/$5,000) and Mel Rojas Jr. ($17/$6,300). If Sung-woo Jang ($8/$3,200) remains unpopular I like him as an option at catcher on DraftKings, more and more for every spot he climbs up the batting order from the eighth we currently have him hitting.
The Tigers get Odrisamer Despaigne tonight. Despaigne has been exactly the pitcher he looks like in his basic stat-line through 73 innings in 2020. His 4.29 earned run average and 4.32 FIP are right in line, he strikes out around 18% of hitters while walking a moderate 6.4%. The Tigers bats rank near the bottom of stacks on both sites and aren’t really catching the eye tonight. If I’m playing this team I’m honestly probably just going to a straight line approach in the top five or six hitters, or more ideally a three-man. Ji-wan Na ($9/$3,700) popped back onto my home run model’s radar with a strong rating today. If hits from the three spot in the lineup it should help his production. Preston Tucker ($17/$5,800) paid off the chalk chasers who used him as a one-off last night while the rest of this team did nothing, he could do the same solo here or as part of a small stack. Ho-ryeong Kim ($10/$3,900) needs to get things going. Absolutely no one will be on him out of the fifth spot in this lineup, making him exactly what KBO DFS players are looking for if they go to a stack like this.
LG Twins @ Doosan Bears – 10.5 run total (5.29/5.43) – Suggested Stack(s): Twins 1-3-4-5-6 (DraftKings) / Bears 1-4 (FanDuel)
The Bears took the opener of this series last night in a 9-6 victory that only got close after three late runs from the Twins. This one was Bears most of the way and it included big nights from the first two hitters in the order who went a combined 7-8 with six runs scored and an RBI that came on a solo home run by Jose Miguel Fernandez. Additional fantasy scoring was available up and down this lineup for KBO DFS owners, and the Bears were a key part of success.
The Twins were less impressive last night despite their eventual run tally. Eun-sung Chae hasn’t gotten going since coming back to this lineup and it’s having some impact as the reintegrate him. Roberto Ramos is potentially starting to come around however, with another home run last night following an extended swoon after his initial injury. Tonight, the Twins draw part-time starter Jong-gi Park and, while their run total lands in the middle of a group of teams between 5.25 and 5.5 runs, it suggests there should be something to like about this lineup given their quality. The Twins rank near the top of stacks and the ownership on them isn’t as tragic as we’ve seen it. Roberto Ramos ($17/$5,000) appears to finally be getting his timing back at the plate and barreling balls again. He’s the most important bat in this lineup but he’ll be owned like it at a playable 25% on DraftKings and 33% on FanDuel. If the public is getting further away from Eun-sung Chae ($13/$3,000) I want to be more certain I’m getting him into my Twins builds. The quality is there, he’s too good a hitter for his slump to last very long and it is almost definitely related to the injury that had him out from June 21st to June 30th. You’ll want to have Chae in your lineups the night he bounces back, he’s a guy who constantly gets opportunities to drive in runs in this lineup. If the ownership on Kang-nam Yoo ($10/$4,400) slips I want to have him in my catcher spot on DraftKings. He’s currently tracking for only 15% which is a playable mark on that site tonight.
Casey Kelly hasn’t really given the Twins their money’s worth to this point in the season. His 4.75 FIP and 17% strikeout rate are fine for average KBO starters, but Kelly is expected to anchor this rotation. He’s not a guy I love to target with bats, but the Bears are exceptional. They rank third on both sites in the stack tool and are under-owned once again on FanDuel. This is a quality spot to get to for KBO DFS. The entire top of this lineup looks strong in Awesemo’s projections tonight. Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17/$5,900) is doing everything right, including as ESPN’s broadcast was quick and frequent to point out, only striking out a league leading 6.1% of the time. Fernandez has as many doubles this season as strikeouts. Any time a hitter is putting the ball in play that often and with the quality contact that Fernandez puts on the ball, I want him in my lineups. When he’s undervalued like he is on both sites, I want him in a lot of my lineups. The three hitters immediately behind Fernandez in this lineup make great options to mix and match into your Bears stacks. Jae-il Oh ($15/$4,200) is a popular but potent bat, Jae-hwan Kim ($17/$5,500) has a price tag that suppresses his ownership despite 11 home runs on the season and going over 35 home runs in three seasons out of his last four. Joo-hwan Choi ($13/$3,500) might be too popular on DraftKings. Use him in stacks, but make sure to get to other builds as well, and consider getting under the field on him and over on other guys in this lineup.
Lotte Giants @ Hanwha Eagles – 9.0 run total (5.21/4.00) – Suggested Stack(s): Giants 2-3-4
These two teams played a wild back and forth affair that took the full 12 innings that KBO allows before the Eagles walked it off on a twelfth-inning two run home run off the bat of Sun-jin Oh. The total for tonight’s game is the lowest on the slate and the Eagles are implied for the night’s fewest runs, I wouldn’t expect the same outburst from them two days in a row.
The Giants get Warwick Saupold here. Saupold has been fine, if unspectacular in his 12 starts so far in 2020, though he struggled last time out giving up six to the Tigers. The matchup hasn’t scared Vegas and the Giants’ implied total is among the better marks on the board. What I don’t like the looks of is the team’s low ranking in the stack tool, which is also showing them as pulling too much team ownership. It’s not a terrible spot on paper but it seems like KBO DFS players are overvaluing it some, don’t make that mistake. If you go with the Giants do so in moderation, remember everything is big in their world. When playing this team the same rule applies, small deployments of Jun-woo Jeon ($12/$4,200), Ah-seop Son ($13/$4,100), and Dae-ho Lee ($10/$3,900) make a quality three-man, although it gets in the way of a lot of other DraftKings builds. The location of Chi-hong An ($9/$3,300) in this batting order from night to night can have a big impact on how things come together, given his second base eligibility. Dixon Machado ($10/$4,600) is never my favorite guy to recommend but he gets a decent mark in my home run model again today in his now-regular fifth spot. Awesemo’s projections like him slightly less, when in doubt stick with the boss.
I never really want to play the Eagles and I want to even less against Dan Straily. Despite his absurd 1-2 win-loss record, Straily has easily been the KBO’s second best pitcher all season. Most of his marks are second in the league only to the Dinos’ Chang-mo Koo, strikeout percentage is a great example, with only Koo’s 31.1% rate higher than Straily’s 26.2%. Like a deep cavern, this is not the spot for getting to Eagles. If you’re a contrarian madman the names you probably want are Tae-kyun Kim ($7/$3,500), Jin-haeng Choi ($5/$3,300), and Yong-kyu Lee ($8/$3,600), maybe soe Eun-won Jung ($8/$4,000), but I’m not going to try to justify a bad play for you here.
NC Dinos @ SK Wyverns – 10.5 run total (6.19/4.56) – Suggested Stack(s): Dinos 1-5
Chang-mo Koo mostly delivered for KBO DFS owners who paid his huge price tag last night. It wasn’t an extremely high-end start however, so if you didn’t have him with the exact right combination with bats it was difficult to make up any ground in the middle. The game’s final 5-4 score is deceptive after both teams but up three ninth inning runs in a Dinos win.
With Jeon-wook Lee making just his second start of the season this looks like another great spot for the Dinos, where hopefully they will eventually come through. The total is the slate’s highest by nearly three quarters of a run. The Dinos bats are solid and they should get the best leadoff hitter in the league back tonight in Min-woo Park ($12/$5,400). Park is the catalyst for this offense, and they’ve been sluggish while he has been out, making his return a potential jumping off point for another big run by this squad. The best news is that the current ownership share looks way out of proportion with their probability of being the top stack on the night. This is a big opportunity if that holds true going into lock. Park and Sung-bum Na ($18/$6,100) are both under-owned on DraftKings, Na is slightly more popular on FanDuel, but they make a great initial building block for this construction. I like Jin-hyuk No ($9/$4,000) to continue hitting eight here to mix up the lefty-righty in this order a bit, although I’ve seen him projected to hit ninth in other places. He makes a good but different option either way, acting as a wrap-around to the top of the order if he’s hitting nine, and serving better as the final member of a mid-lineup stack with Jin-sung Kang ($15/$4,700), Suk-min Park ($10/$4,900) and the hitters above them.
KBO veteran Hak-ju Lee is another pitcher who gets by allowing contact and relying on his defense. He’s done it successfully over the course of a 10-year career at this point, so we can rely on him being what he appears. The Wyverns bats rank near the bottom of stacks but are well over-exposed on both sites. If that holds true, I really don’t think I like this spot. The Wyverns don’t bring much to the plate beyond Choi ($15/$5,1000) and Romak ($13/$4,500) most nights. The pricing on the top two hitters in the lineup seems workable, Jun-hyeok Oh ($5/$2,300) and Ji-hoon Choi ($5/$2,700) would probably only find their way into some of my lineups based on that.
Samsung Lions @ Kiwoom Heroes – 9.5 run total (4.67/5.03) – Suggested Stack(s): Lions 3-4-6
I have to say it feels good to finally have gotten the Lions right on a night when they went off for one of their wild upside games. This team has demonstrated the ability to score runs in bunches for KBO DFS owners and when the spot is right, they demand our attention. It’s tricky to figure out if tonight is another one of those spots though.
The Lions draw a total in a group among the slate’s lowest against Sung-hyun Moon, who is making his first start of 2020 after seven appearances out of the Heroes bullpen. Moon has made 30 starts in his career but has pitched mostly out of the bullpen to middling results. He missed all but one game in 2019, and while researching why that was, I came across the note that he was nearly involved in a match-fixing scandal a few years ago but reported it and gave up the co-conspirators. So, from any perspective, maybe a guy we don’t want to put too much trust in? The Lions bats land in the middle of the stack tool and of team popularity. They are playable on both sites and present a ton of salary savings up and down the lineup, making them a great team to click together with some of the bigger stacks once again. Won-seok Lee ($8/$3,800) drew a quality mark in my home run model today and looks strong in Awesmo’s projections, hitting in his usual RBI spot, fifth in this lineup. A three man build with Lee, Ja-wook Koo ($10/$4,600) and Dong-yeop Kim ($8/$3,100) isn’t out of the question if Kim’s bat is within reach in the batting order. You can get to Seong-gon Lee ($5/$2,600) to bridge that lineup gap if necessary, but it’s not my preference.
The Heroes just barely scrape over a five run implied team total tonight. They take on Tae-in Won who is still getting away with a lot and still doesn’t strike hitters out to any great degree. This is a guy I still expect to regress as the season rolls along. On the nights that happens you want to be on the opposing bats. The Heroes land among a block of teams near the middle of stack rankings tonight. If you look to them it will be challenging to fit them with the Dinos or Bears on DraftKings, but you can do it on FanDuel where positions are meaningless. The big bat of Byung-ho Park ($14/$4,700) is always in play but he’ll be a very popular option at first base and there’s lot of other quality at the position. Ha-seong Kim ($16/$5,400) is similarly popular on DraftKings but far less so on FanDuel, making him more playable on the blue site. The Heroes have been rolling out an odd duck of a lineup lately, with their backup catcher serving as DH in what baseball experts like to call “terrible strategy.” If this is the case again tonight, sharp DraftKings KBO DFS players might pick off a cheap bonus catcher in Ji-Young Lee ($6/$2,300), although I want to be on the other side of things if more people go to Lee than to starting catcher Dong-won Park ($9/$5,500).
Favorite KBO DFS Stack: NC Dinos (DraftKings) / Doosan Bears (FanDuel)
HR Call: Ji-wan Na (Kia Tigers)
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