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Spotlight Hitters KBO DFS Picks on DraftKings + FanDuel | Thursday July 09

Terry McBride

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KBO

I love baseball, but man it can be frustrating sometimes. The Dinos were a great reminder of the math of baseball for KBO DFS players again last night. No matter how good the spot, sometimes things just don’t work out because of the complexities of the game.

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Big games from popular bats were key, the Twins were the high scoring team on the night, capitalizing on Hyun-soo Kim’s two home runs, and the Wiz and Heroes both came through with seven run games that featured some key pops from big bats. The Lions managed to plate six as our strong value play last night as well.

A lower scoring slate in general still gave KBO DFS players enough to work with on the offensive side of things, and a few stellar pitching performances there were several paths to success in GPPs. The Awesemo Baseball Slack Channel rolls on with another big DraftKings winner last night as well. If you’re not in there with us in the hour or so leading up to lock you’re missing out on a lot of key information as lineups emerge.

KBO DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Hitters

Tonight’s slate sees totals plummet across the board. Runs and fantasy production could be a bit sparse across our five games. The pitching matchups are very strong today, with six of the ten teams starting a foreign pitcher, which is the reason we’re getting low game totals. Everything looks clear on the radar again, so we should be good with weather. Now if we can find some bats we’ll be all set.


The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.

As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so. I’m also going to start trying to include positions more, hopefully it helps speed up the process of finding guys as you build lineups.

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With lock still hours away (5:30 A.M. EST), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.

KT Wiz @ Kia Tigers – 9.0 run total (4.12/5.08) – Suggested Stack(s): Tigers 2-6

The Wiz rolled to a 7-4 victory last night by stringing together another quality performance. Base hit after base hit, taking advantage of driving the ball and quality speed and base-running throughout the game. Tonight’s matchup is a bit of a taller order however, and the low implied total is reflecting it for KT.

The Wiz get Drew Gagnon, a high-quality import starter who has been mostly effective through 2020. His strikeouts are down over the last eight starts from where they were to begin the season, but he has remained a strong option in limiting opportunity. This is a tough spot for the Wiz’ bats, they rank at the top of the bad stacks on the board however, and the ownership is downright favorable. If you wanted to take some swings with these guys to be contrarian, I don’t completely hate it. We have Gagnon projected for over 50% ownership on DraftKings, so if you connect with low-owned bats against him it’s going to be a powerful spot. With ownership this reduced you can confidently go straight to the big names here. Jae-gyun Hwang ($11/$6,000), Mel Rojas Jr. ($17/$6,100), and Baek-ho Kang ($16/$5,300) are an easy high-quality three-man stack, though they’re somewhat price prohibitive. Jeong-dae Bae ($10/$2,900) was a living highlight on the field yesterday, showing off his speed with fantastic plays in center as well as on the bases. He makes a find addition or pivot in this stack.

I expected the matchup against Byung-wook Jo to yield a better look than we’re getting for the Tigers tonight. The starter has only made it 5 innings and change, around 75 pitches, in each of his appearances this season. He doesn’t walk many, but he strikes out just as few while allowing contact. The KT bullpen is also generally terrible, suggesting there will be some opportunity. KBO DFS owners appear to be on it given this lineup’s projected over-exposure, but Awesemo’s projections and the stack tool don’t fully agree. The Tigers rank only “fine” in the stack tool for both sites. They’re not a play to avoid, but I might look to stay under the field if this projection holds. The bats to own are the chalkiest here, particularly on FanDuel, where Hyung-woo Choi ($13/$4,900), Preston Tucker ($16/$5,800) and Min-sang Yoo ($7/$3,100) are pushing 30% ownership each. The less popular bats in this lineup are a severe drop in quality. If you want to add one I would probably just look to the obvious in likely leadoff man Chang-in Lee ($5/$3,00).

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LG Twins @ Doosan Bears – 9.5 run total (4.41/5.30) – Suggested Stack(s): Bears 2-3-4

The Twins got into gear with an 8-run outburst in an 8-5 victory over the Bears last night. Riding a two-homer game from Hyun-soo Kim and a good performance by starter Casey Kelly this was the exact kind of game this team needed to get things turned around.

The implied total is way down tonight for the Twins. They’re going to have to figure out how to contend with Raul Alcantara, who has been having a strong season for Doosan. The Twins drop well down the stack rankings tonight and there doesn’t look to be any advantage in getting to them where others aren’t, so unless you want to get over the top of the public on pricey bats in a bad spot, this probably isn’t the play. If you are going that direction it’s a rare opportunity to get to Roberto Ramos ($17/$4,800) at under 20% public exposure. The rest of the Twins bats are at similar levels of popularity. Eun-sung Chae ($13/$3,000) sat last night but I expect him back in the lineup today and his slump will end soon. Hyun-soo Kim ($15/$4,700) also looks good once again in both my home run model and Awesemo’s projections. The bats below six are challenging in this lineup though. I would avoid Joon-won Jang almost completely, and Ju-hyeon Jung would only get into lineups based on some positional flexibility that could come in handy. KBO DFS owners can find better options than those two in a local high school’s lineup.

The Bears don’t have a terrible implied total tonight at 5.3 against Tyler Wilson, who has had a respectable 2020 of his own in the KBO so far. Wilson doesn’t blow hitters away with a 17% strikeout rate, but that mark is more than acceptable for a KBO starter, and he does pretty much everything well. The Bears have a ton of quality in this lineup, but they land fifth in stacks on both sites. The ownership advantage on FanDuel is appealing, a 10.4% chance of being the best stack and only 4.4% team ownership is the type of play we’re looking for when there’s a group like that from 12% to 10% among the top four or five stacks. Kyoung-min Hur ($10/$3,700) was back atop this lineup last night and makes sense there again today. Putting him together with the guys who will drive him in is the play with that exposure number, so feel free to click on any or all of Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17/$5,900), Jae-il Oh ($15/$4,200) and Jae-hwan Kim ($17/$5,100) as much as you can get them together. Keep an eye on the order between Kun-woo Park ($14/$4,400) and Joo-hwan Choi ($13/$3,400) hitting after that group, my preference would be whichever is directly connected when the lineup is announced. As you move down the lineup the quality of the spot comes more into play, you don’t want to be taking on too much compounded risk by using the worst bats from this kind of play.

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Lotte Giants @ Hanwha Eagles – 9.5 run total (5.51/4.21) – Suggested Stack(s): Giants 1-5

Dan Straily did Dan Straily things to the Eagles last night, keeping them off the board and limited to just four hits during his seven inning seven strikeout performance. The Eagles put up two late runs against the Giants bullpen, but they were never really a factor in the 6-2 Lotte win.

The rolling Giants offense got home runs from both Jun-woo Jeon ($12/$4,500) and Dae-ho Lee ($10/$4,100) last night and the home run model loves them once again here. Awesemo’s projections look solid for most of the hitters in the Giants lineup tonight, and they come up near the top of the stack tool. The popularity is an issue, and this is a team that fits together with other stacks well in optimizers, so keep a close eye on your exposures and make sure you’re where you want to be. The last time this team faced a lefty they moved Dixon Machado ($10/$5,000) down in the lineup, I like him better if they still have him hitting fifth here. If they move Chi-hong An ($9/$3,500) up in Machado’s place, which we’re projecting, it’s a spot I love connecting to the rest of these bats. Hoon Jung ($9/$4,100) is a quality table-setter for this stack as well, his price and position make him an appealing play from the top of the batting order.

Adrian Sampson is not the pitcher that Dan Straily is at the moment, but he doesn’t need to be to take out a team like the Eagles. Their low 4.21 implied team total tells us what Vegas thinks of the matchup, and Awesmo has them ranked near the bottom of stacks on both sites. This is a team that I wouldn’t want to recommend if the other side were playing with just eight men on the field. If you’re feeling it tonight the names are largely the same, and they’re the ones who have produced recently. Tae-kyun Kim ($7/$3,600) drove in the two Eagles runs last night and generally ranks as this team’s best hitter in both projections and my home run model. KBO DFS owners shouldn’t leave him out of their Eagles stacks. You probably shouldn’t incur additional risk by going to the bottom of this order either, so just take Kim and pick two hitters ahead of him in the lineup, Eun-won Jung ($8/$3,900) has been getting on base at a good .373 clip making him one of the better options in that group, and leadoff man Yong-kyu Lee ($8/$3,600) has a .387 on-base percentage for his entire 16-year career. Those are my picks but not my picks, you’re doing you if you want to play these guys.


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NC Dinos @ SK Wyverns – 10.0 run total (5.66/4.57) – Suggested Stack(s): Dinos 1-5

It’s a good thing Unsolved Mysteries is back, because I’m going to need someone on the case of the Dinos’ missing bats. This spot looked primed to go off yesterday and it just didn’t happen, making the Dinos a bust of a play under nearly optimal circumstances for the third or fourth time in the last ten days.

This time out the Dinos get Ricardo Pinto who has managed to keep runs somewhat down in his games, despite not really impressing in many other ways. “Unimpressive” would be an overly generous way to describe his 1.4% (12.8% K / 11.4% BB) strikeout to walk rate. This is another good spot for the Dinos, they have the highest implied total on the board and – stop me if you’ve heard this one – they rank at the top of stacks on both sites tonight. There’s a tiny bit of edge in ownership but they’ll be popular unless KBO DFS owners abandon logic for fear of recent results. If that’s the case we want to buy when they’re selling and get on this lineup once again. Aaron Altherr ($15/$5,400) and Eui-ji Yang ($13/$5,700) are by far the two most popular players on the board for the Dinos tonight. I like both bats but it might make sense to skirt ownership on them by going under the public there but over in other spots in this lineup. Star Sung-bum Na ($18/$5,600) is a near daily mention in this space, but if he’s going to be in just 15% of lineups it’s noteworthy. Everyone else is less popular here. Min-woo Park ($12/$5,200) got right back to work with a walk and a base hit in four plate appearances last night, and Suk-min Park ($10/$4,600) moved up the lineup when Yang was given the day off, showing the team has faith in this bat. Someone mentioned I might have messed up on the name of Dinos infielder Jin-hyuk No ($9/$4,000) last night, but hopefully you guys knew what I was getting at. He’s similar quality again here.

Sung-young Choi is another KBO starter who bounces back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation. He’s posted middling results in both roles through his career, including in his four starts so far in 2020. The Wyverns lost Jeong Choi to injury last night, however, further diminishing the quality of this lineup. With only Jamie Romak ($13/$4,500) looking particularly strong in Awesemo’s projections or my home run model, it’s difficult to recommend this stack. They rank near the bottom on both sites and the ownership situation is unfavorable to put it kindly. I don’t think the spot vs. starter situation is awful, I just don’t trust any of these hitters. If you want to use Eui-yoon Jeung ($7/$2,800) and Tae-in Chae ($5/$2,400) in small deployments it might be the best approach with these guys. Ji-hoon Choi ($5/$2,900) leading off is a fair option as well. The pricing is where you find anything positive to say about this team, with so many min-priced or cheap options you can put the Wyverns together with basically anything else you want. That’s going to make them too popular for my tastes here, however, and it’s something you want to watch out for when you run your optimizers.

Samsung Lions @ Kiwoom Heroes – 9.0 run total (3.60/5.64) – Suggested Stack(s): Heroes – 1-2-3-4-6

These teams dueled to the highest overall game total last night in a 7-6 Heroes victory that featured a clutch pinch-hit home run by Byung-ho Park that did absolutely nothing for KBO DFS owners since he didn’t start.

Tonight’s game has the Lions facing Heroes ace Eric Jokisch. Jokisch has been elite so far in the KBO this year and has two strong starts against the Lions already in 2020. Vegas is expecting a full power outage for the Lions in this matchup and Awesemo seems to agree. The Lions rank dead last in stacks on both sites and look awful in projections and in my home run model. This is not a team I want much of tonight. Which, if you’ve been following along most of the year you know means they’ll probably score 14 runs. Let someone else win with them if that rare case comes through, it’s not a good spot to go to from any perspective tonight. If you’re reading this while suspended by your feet over a shark tank and the only way out is to put three Lions in your lineup tonight, your players are Ja-wook Koo ($10/$4,300), Won-seok Lee ($8/$3,600), and Dong-yeop Kim ($8/$2,900).

Jung-hyun Baek is a KBO-average level veteran starter. He isn’t overly bad or good, he’s mostly just fine. He allows too much opportunity, which is a common theme among the mid-tier KBO starters, and that makes him a good target for these Heroes bats tonight. Byung-ho Park ($14/$4,600) should be back in the lineup and ready to mash. Ha-seong Kim ($16/$5,800) is an expensive but high-end option at shortstop on DraftKings, but that also has him over 35% ownership on that site. Leadoff hitter Keon-chang Seo ($11/$4,700) is more appealing with less exposure and some positional flexibility. Dong-won Park ($9/$5,500) has slid a few spots down this lineup, but don’t make the mistake of leaving him out.


Favorite KBO DFS Stack: NC Dinos (again)

HR Call: Roberto Ramos – LG Twins


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Terry used to do other things, now he writes words on the internet. He hopes his more than 20 years’ experience in season-long and daily fantasy sports and his custom models for MLB, NBA, and NFL don't steer you too wrong when he writes columns and makes picks on Awesemo.com. A lifetime of experience keeping odd hours make Terry ideal to cover KBO baseball overnight until the world returns to normal. Most of those late night hours have been spent on the couch watching sports, T.V., and movies; just try to shut him up about any of the above. You can find his pop-culture ramblings and more on Sideaction.

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