KBO DFS: Spotlight Hitters DraftKings, FanDuel

Well, today wasn’t the day for KBO DFS bullpen rankings either. Honestly it’s a project to compile with the number of guys who have bounced between starts and bullpen action, but we’ll get there for next week or over the weekend.

Last night’s slate played clean despite the questionable looking weather going in. The games gave KBO DFS owners two huge performances from the best offenses in the league. The Dinos went off in their 12-2 rout of the Twins, and the Bears were right behind them scoring 10 in their win over the Giants. The slate’s relatively pricey pitching options largely came through, creating a number of different avenues to success in GPPs.

KBO DFS Picks: DraftKings + FanDuel Hitters

Game totals are up tonight, and the board is mostly clear on the weather front, so we should be in for a good night of baseball. It would be nice if the two DFS sites would cooperate now and keep Friday prize pools large, but we’ll take what we can get. All the projected runs for these teams should give KBO DFS players plenty to choose from on the offensive end of the game tonight and a quick glance at the top stacks tells me there might be some sneaky opportunities available. Don’t forget the start time moves up a half-hour to 5:00 A.M. EST, make sure to set the alarm for the right time (this is me reminding myself at this point, let’s be honest…)

The bulk of this analysis comes directly from reviewing Awesemo’s KBO DFS projections and the top stacks tool. Check out the rest of our KBO content, Awesemo’s projections, rankings, and ownership on the site for all your KBO DFS needs.

As usual, I’m going to look game by game, calling out a hitter or two from each team, and giving some top stacking options as we go. Pricing and popularity will be considered, more so as KBO DFS trends begin to emerge over the coming weeks. The numbers included with Suggested Stack are the projected lineup positions I would target for stacking that team, but do not restrict yourself exclusively to those spots. For example, if it says Wyverns 3-6 it means 3,4,5,6 in the projected lineup. If it says 1-2-3-5 it means those guys. If it means a two-man it will say so.

With lock still hours away (5:00 A.M. EST), official lineups have not been released, so be sure to double-check status before you plug players into your lineup.

NC Dinos @ LG Twins – 9.5 run total (5.51/4.21) – Suggested Stack(s): Dinos Dealer’s Choice

Two big games in a row and the Dinos are off and rolling again. The 12-run outburst last night featured a home run from Aaron Altherr and a 4-5 game from Sung-bum Na with the Dinos cruising to a 12-2 victory that the Twins were never a part of.

The Dinos get 18-year-old rookie first round pick Min-ho Lee who has made two excellent starts against Samsung and SK and two average starts that came against Doosan and KT. His problem in the latter two starts was issuing too many walks, issuing four free passes in one start and five in the next, needing more than 110 pitches to get through just five innings in each. The Dinos bats could feast if they get that version of the kid tonight and Awesemo’s projections and top stacks like what they see. The Dinos rank second in stacks and won’t be impossibly popular. The value numbers are down with the high prices of these bats, however, and it’s very difficult to get them together with another high-end stack. Aaron Altherr ($15/$5,500) looks great in projections and my home run model again tonight. All four hitters between third and sixth in this lineup have terrific looking power metrics in this one in fact. If you can make it work they make a dynamite stack with one more hitter attached on DraftKings. The Dinos seem to like Hee-dong Kwon ($9/$2,900) hitting second now, sending Myung-gi Lee ($9/$3,200) to the nine-spot. Either is a workable option for differentiation purposes. Don’t forget Jin-sung Kang ($15/$4,400) late in this lineup in some shares of your Dinos stacks as well, he’s quietly still among KBO leaders with a .351/.388/.596 slash, despite falling in this lineup.

The Twins get Mike Wright on the hill tonight and odds-makers are keeping their implied run total low. Wright’s 4.77 FIP isn’t exactly stellar and at 10.3% he’s still walking too many hitters. I think there might be a bit of underappreciated opportunity here, but it’s not what I would ever call a good spot. The Twins rank dead last in Awesemo’s stack rankings and no one will be on the full team stacks at under 2.5% on both sites. The team welcomed Hyung-jong Lee ($6/$3,400) back to the lineup last night. If you’re playing Twins stacks this is an under-valued starting point. The ESPN broadcast last night was quoting Twins outfielder Hyun-soo Kim ($15/$4,700) as saying he’d expected Lee to be the team’s best hitter in 2020, before Lee’s hand was broken by a spring training pitch. The pair make a great start to Twins stacks atop this order and there’s nothing wrong with continuing in a straight line through Roberto Ramos ($17/$4,900) and Eun-sung Chae ($13/$3,000) then deciding on another Twins bat to include. It’s not the stack I would choose from this game, but if I were playing Twins that’s the angle with which I would start constructions.

Doosan Bears @ Lotte Giants – 11.5 run total (6.28/5.47) – Suggested Stack(s): Bears 2-6

The Bears smashed this Giants team for 10 runs in a 10-5 win that only looks that close thanks to a 4-run ninth inning slip-up by the Bears mop-up crew out of the bullpen. The big bats in this lineup roared, with contributions up and down including home runs by Jae-il Oh and Jae-won Oh.

Tonight, the Bears are in an even better spot. This game has the largest total on the slate and the Bears get the highest implied team total by nearly three-quarters of a run at 6.28. The Bears are in first with a bullet on both sites in the stack tool tonight and even with team ownership above 20% on both sites tonight I don’t think we can avoid them. The entire top-half of the lineup is in dark green in conditional formatting for projection totals on my screen tonight and you can deploy these guys in any configuration. Even a stack of the bottom of the lineup gives you a reasonably high projected point total here, and bats down there like Kyoung-min Hur ($10/$4,400) and Jae-ho Kim ($8/$3,500) are in play to differentiate constructions with the early hitters. In the middle of the order, it was a coin flip in picking between Jae-il Oh ($15/$4,600) and Jae-hwan Kim ($17/$5,500) for my pick from the home run model for this team today.

The Giants were held to just three hits in a six-strikeout performance by Chris Flexen last night. They get a better matchup tonight with Hui-kwan Yu on the mound for the Bears. Yu is sporting a 6-2 record that is better than his 4.97 FIP and league-worst 8.7% strikeout rate deserve. This Giants offense has had issues staying in gear this season, but they are supremely capable of getting to a pitcher like this. The stack tool has them ranked around the middle tonight and nothing looks exceptional about ownership in either direction. The only hitter in the top six in this lineup who doesn’t project particularly well is Dong-hee Han ($10/$2,500), though as he proved with his two-homer day earlier this week anything can happen, and you shouldn’t leave him out of stacks. The two powerful bats ahead of him in the lineup are always in play, Jun-woo Jeon ($12/$4,200) and Dae-ho Lee ($10/$4,000) make one of the better quality-for-cost pairings in the KBO right now.

SK Wyverns @ Hanwha Eagles – 9.5 run total (5.29/4.43) – Suggested Stack(s): Wyverns 2-5

These two terrible teams did just enough against one another to be relevant for KBO DFS owners who went to them in chalky value spots with a 6-5 Eagles victory that included no home runs and key contributions from the less popular Eagles bats. So, they were frustrating if you did or did not play them, which sounds about right for this team.

The Wyverns did welcome Jeong Choi ($14/$5,400) back to this lineup last night, making them immediately more interesting. The slugger’s positional flexibility between third and shortstop on DraftKings is a critical component to construction tonight. The bats behind him are bolstered by his return as well, Jamie Romak ($13/$4,500) has remained a strong daily projection and player in my home run model, but he gets a bump here as does Tae-in Chae ($5/$2,500) who is now a terrific value at that price. Late value is presenting itself in Awesemo’s projections in the form of Suk-min Yoon ($6/$2,500) from the seventh spot in the lineup as well, so there might be opportunity to explore with these guys tonight.

Manually limiting Eagles exposure last night in an anti-optimizer move turned out to not help or hurt too terribly. The team put up six runs, but the bulk of production came from down-lineup hitters. Tonight, they have another total below 4.5 runs and submarining strikeout artist Jong-hoon Park on the mound against them. This is not a spot to get cocky about Eagles bats and their quality, pricing aside. Awesemo’s projections and stack rankings agree, the Eagles simply don’t look good here. If you want to go this route Ju-suk Ha ($9/$4,300) is projected to hit third and could combine with Eun-won Jung ($8/$4,000) and one of the players on either side of them in the lineup in a stack that picks off both tricky position requirements on DraftKings, but there are certainly better options for KBO DFS players to choose from on this slate.

Samsung Lions @ KT Wiz – 10.5 run total (5.39/5.33) – Suggested Stack(s): Wiz 2-6 (DraftKings) / Lions 2-3-4-6 (FanDuel)

The Lions got Tyler Saladino back in the lineup last night and their bats immediately went pretty quiet in an 8-3 loss to the Wiz. The impressive start by William Cuevas was a critical piece of the pitching puzzle last night, and the Wiz bats made their way into competitive lineups with home runs from Mel Rojas Jr. and Baek-ho Kang.

Tonight, the Lions face Hyeong-jun So who has so far been “sikkeuleoun” (Korean for “shitty,” learning new languages is important) in his 2020 season so far. There should be some opportunity for Lions bats tonight, they rank third in stacks on DraftKings and fourth on FanDuel where there appears to be some ownership edge. Getting Tyler Saladino ($13/$4,700) back should help this lineup, despite their recent hot streak basically coinciding with his absence. Hak-ju Lee ($7/$4,800), Won-seok Lee ($8/$4,000) and Dong-yeop Kim ($8/$3,300) all provide inexpensive quality behind Saladino in this stack. If Seong-gon Lee ($5/$2,900) hits fifth as projected feel free to stick him in there as well. Hae-min Park ($7/$3,000) makes a very high-quality wraparound play as a nine-hitter here.

This game has the night’s second highest total and Vegas has things close, so both teams are pulling decent implied totals, keeping the Wiz’ bats firmly in play here as well. Mel Rojas Jr. ($17/$6,300) and Baek-ho Kang ($16/$5,500) gave anyone who put this column and the HR Options column together two home runs last night as the primary producers for the Wiz. KBO DFS owners can mix and match some of the quality bats around them tonight, and the ownership on some of the team’s other options looks appealing on DraftKings. The bats I want along for the ride include Han-joon Yoo ($11/$3,200), Jeong-dae Bae ($10/$3,300), as well as Jae-gyun Hwang ($11/$6,100) if you can make it all work with pricing.

Kiwoom Heroes @ Kia Tigers – 8.5 run total (3.82/4.87) – Suggested Stack(s): Tigers 2-4

11 innings were needed to decide a 9-8 contest between these two teams last night, with the Heroes ultimately coming out on top. The game provided a wealth of fantasy points for KBO DFS players, with home runs from commonly owned bats on the Heroes side and less popular options delivering for the Tigers as well, getting homers from both Preston Tucker and Ji-wan Na.

The Heroes have the night’s lowest implied team total in their matchup with Aaron Brooks. Brooks has been excellent so far this year in KBO play, with a 2.87 FIP and 22.8% strikeout rate. The Heroes rank near the bottom of the stack tool on both sites tonight, uncharacteristically low, which speaks to the pitcher’s quality. The bats to get to if you’re going this way could once again include Ji-young Lee ($6/$2,300) if he’s in a reasonable spot in the order or starting at all. The backup catcher has been one of the Heroes hottest bats in recent weeks and they’ve been throwing caution to the wind starting him at DH frequently. Hitting between Byung-ho Park ($14/$4,400) and fellow catcher Dong-won Park ($9/$5,100) adds to his appeal, although it is impossible to play both catchers on DraftKings. Ha-seong Kim ($16/$5,600) hit one out last night and looked strong again in my home run model today, keeping the usually very popular shortstop in play at reduced ownership. This isn’t a great spot to get to, but you’ll be on an island with a lot of fantasy points and not many duplicated lineups if you go this way.

The Tigers have the better end of this matchup with Seung-ho Lee on the mound for the Heroes. The 21-year-old doesn’t do anything to stand out. His numbers have been KBO-adequate, but he doesn’t strike fear into the hearts of hitters with his 14% strikeout rate. The Tigers rank toward the bottom of stacks, but their probability of success ultimately isn’t tragic. They’re more of a mix-in option than a focus play tonight, however, so don’t go overboard. They also aren’t totally unpopular, so using them in concert with bats from the most popular stacks like the Dinos and Bears might not be a great bet without some thought on how to make it unique. Chang-jin Lee ($5/$3,000) is a very inexpensive start to this stack leading off and it wouldn’t be criminal to build straight down from one through the fifth spot in this order (Lee, Tucker, Choi, Na, Yoo) if you can make it work. If you’re stepping out of that construction, I like either limiting to three hitters or attaching a wrap-around from the bottom of the lineup, possibly speedster Chan-ho Park ($9/$3,500) if he’s down there. I expect him to be despite him moving up to sixth last night. Joo-wan Na ($5/$2,300) is a capable inexpensive option for positioning and differentiation in the middle of this order as well.