The MLB is offering a small array of games, and once again we are turning to MLB Bet Pro to find the best MLB player props on today’s slate. Note that the props here come from only three of today’s six games — the 2:10 p.m. ET Guardians-White Sox game and the two evening games. Be sure to check out MLB Bet Pro to find props for the three earlier games as well, but remember that first pitch for those will come between 12:35 p.m. ET and 1:10 p.m. Now let’s get into Thursday’s MLB picks.
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Top MLB Player Props & Picks From MLB Bet Pro | May 18
3. Adam Wainwright Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140, BetMGM)
It is probably the end of the road for Wainwright, as his strikeout rate has dropped to just 15.6% and his ERA has rocketed north of 7.00. However, as potent as their lineup can be, the Dodgers are vulnerable to strikeouts. They have done it the fifth most in MLB this season, and four hitters have strikeout rates of at least 28% — two are over 33%. If all four are in the lineup tonight, Wainwright will have his pickings of some free swingers.
Wainwright’s strikeouts per nine are just 6.3, so he will need to get through five whole innings to hit this mark at this rate. He has hit that exactly in both of his starts this season, and since the Dodgers should offer a boost to his average, Wainwright’s over on 3.5 has a 61% expected win rate.
2. Logan Allen Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-141, Caesars)
Don’t forget that this game begins at 2:10 p.m. ET, so you will want to get this bet in soon if tailing.
Allen has been a bit volatile with his strikeout numbers in his four MLB starts. He has two games with eight, one with five and one with three, and his starts have spanned from 4.1 innings to 6.0. That said, he is 3-for-4 on this line in a small sample.
The White Sox are middle of the pack from a strikeout perspective, but they do have two guys in today’s expected lineup that are over 25% in strikeout rate, so there are points for Allen to attack. He is averaging 10.3 strikeouts per nine, and even if Allen matches his shortest outing of the season (4.1 innings), he will exceed this line at that rate. MLB Bet Pro has this over at a solid 62% win expectancy and a 6% ROI.
1. Nestor Cortes Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+104, BetRivers)
It is not really clear why Cortes is getting plus money for his over on 4.5 strikeouts. Yes, his strikeout rate is down to 23.2% this year, and yes, he is taking on a tough Blue Jays lineup, but he has gotten to five strikeouts in five of eight starts this year — including seven-strikeout game in a shelling at the hands of the Rangers.
Cortes is averaging basically a strikeout per inning, so if he gets through five (which he has done in six of eight starts), he has a good shot of hitting this over. MLB Bet Pro gives him a 54% chance to do so — which is not extraordinary, but the plus money pushes this to the top of the EV board at 12% expected ROI. This player prop is by far the best value on the market for the later games.
