A 15-game MLB slate is on tap for Tuesday including aces like Zac Gallen and Shane McClanahan dominating the pitching slate. There is a plethora of MLB DFS value options, and as always, we will use matchups, park factors and weather to identify the best spots. Let’s break down the MLB DFS slate on Tuesday, May 30 and peruse the news and notes that will help us build lineups.
MLB DFS Value and Advice | May 30
Cleveland Guardians (Cal Quantrill) at Baltimore Orioles (Kyle Gibson)
This game is mostly being ignored on tonight’s slate. Neither pitcher is appealing with 26 total options to choose from. Quantrill’s 12.8% strikeout percentage is the lowest of any starting pitcher today, while Gibson’s 16.2% strikeout percentage isn’t much better. The Guardians have been the worst offense in baseball against right-handed pitching so far this season with a 78 wRC+ on their active roster. They rank ninth in stack score; however, they do have some left-handed power that can be aided by Camden Yards.
Baltimore’s lineup is likely to be weaker than usual tonight as Cedric Mullins sustained a groin strain late in yesterday’s game. They do still have plenty of power against Quantrill, however, who has allowed a .173 xISO to lefties and a .229 xISO to righties this season. The Orioles are projected to be slightly underowned with about a four percent chance of being the top stack and only three percent ownership in the Top Stacks tool.
Milwaukee Brewers (Adrian Houser) at Toronto Blue Jays (Yusei Kikuchi)
Houser has the lowest probability of being a top two pitcher in the Top Pitchers tool. He is good at preventing runs but has a below average strikeout percentage and is in a difficult matchup. Kikuchi on the other hand has struck out 21.8% of hitters this season and the Brewers’ active roster has a 25.3 percent strikeout percentage against left-handed pitching since the start of last season. He is reasonably priced at $8,400, so he is pulling about 10 percent ownership on DraftKings. Kikuchi does struggle to limit power, however, so there is upside in the Milwaukee bats. He has allowed a .273 xISO to lefties and a .241 xISO to righties this season.
William Contreras is a strong catching option at just $3,800. Be cautious with some of the value bats if you are stacking the Brewers as it is likely that Darin Ruf and/or Mike Brosseau will be pinch hit for once a right-handed reliever enters the game. Toronto has a 5.2 implied run total despite Houser’s 3.14 FIP this season. He has held righties to a .115 xISO and .298 xwOBA so far this season, but the Blue Jays’ righties are not your average righties. Toronto has about a five percent chance of being the top stack at about five percent ownership.
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Cincinnati Reds (Ben Lively) at Boston Red Sox (Brayan Bello)
Lively has struck out 27.3% of hitters through his first four appearances (two starts), but he projects for about a 20% strikeout rate going forward. There are plenty of better pitchers to target tonight. Bello is a promising young pitcher with very good stuff and the ability to keep the ball on the ground. He has struck out 23.6% of hitters so far this season and he has lowered his walk percentage from 10.1% last season to 7.6% this season. He has an elite 59% groundball rate this season after posting a 55.7% groundball rate last season. Cincinnati’s active roster has a 94 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season with a 23.3% strikeout rate.
At only $7,000 on DraftKings, Bello is a strong MLB DFS value SP2 option. Boston’s seven percent chance of being the top stack is the third highest mark on the slate. We don’t have much information on Lively to this point, but there are a lot of dangerous left-handed bats in the Red Sox lineup against the unproven righty.
Philadelphia Phillies (Ranger Suarez) at New York Mets (Kodai Senga)
Senga’s 28.6% strikeout rate through his first nine Major League starts is impressive. The strikeout percentage is the only number that has been impressive so far, but we know that strikeouts are king in MLB DFS. Senga’s 14.6% BB rate is too high and will need to come down if he is going to be able to consistently string together good starts. Everything else has been close to average as he has a 3.98 xFIP, 4.31 FIP and has allowed 1.13 home runs per nine innings. The Phillies have a 107 wRC+ against right-handed pitching with a 23.3 percent strikeout percentage. Senga is only pulling about 10 percent ownership on DraftKings, making him an interesting GPP pivot away from the more popular pitchers in his price range.
Suarez is dirt cheap at $5,200. He threw 85 pitches in his last start, which was the highest pitch count of his three starts this season. He has been hit hard in all three starts, but he was a solid pitcher last season. His underlying numbers this season also suggest a lot of bad luck as he has allowed a .356 wOBA and .250 ISO to lefties with a .274 xwOBA and .044 xISO. Righties have a .244 ISO and .430 wOBA but just a .133 xISO and .356 xwOBA. The Mets’ active roster has only struck out 19.7 percent of the time against left-handed pitching since last season with a 116 wRC+ so this may not be the spot where Suarez turns things around. Still, he is a viable SP2 punt if you need the savings. Both stacks grade out in the middle of the pack in terms of top stack percentage and both teams are going slightly underowned as well.
Kansas City Royals (Zack Greinke) at St. Louis Cardinals (Miles Mikolas)
Greinke, deservedly, isn’t getting any interest on this slate. Mikolas is projected to be about 10% owned at $7,700 on DraftKings. The Royals’ lineup has a lot of highly regarded prospects, but their active roster overall only has a 92 wRC+ with a 24% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Mikolas has only struck out 17.7% of hitters this season with a mediocre 4.35 xFIP. The price tag makes him a reasonable SP2, however.
The Cardinals are fourth in top stack percentage. Greinke has allowed a .222 xISO to lefties and a .170 xISO to righties this season. There is plenty of power from both sides of the plate that can do damage against Greinke here. It is also supposed to be about 85 degrees in St. Louis which could benefit the offenses as well. Kansas City is in the bottom half of stacks in top stack percentage, but they do offer some value and upside as Salvador Perez and Bobby Witt, Jr. are the only two hitters in the lineup priced above $3,800.
Tampa Bay Rays (Shane McClanahan) at Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks)
We finally have an ace to talk about as McClanahan takes on the Cubs. McClanahan has struck out 29.1% of hitters with a 3.57 xFIP this season. The Cubs’ active roster has been productive against left-handed pitching with a 115 wRC+ since last season, but they have also struck out 23.8% of the time and McClanahan is better than most left-handed pitchers. He is the most expensive pitcher on DraftKings at $11,400 and he is projected for 19% ownership with a 19% chance of being a top two scoring pitcher.
Hendricks was decent in his return from injury, striking out five while allowing three earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Mets. He’s a tough sell tonight in a dangerous matchup against the Rays. Tampa Bay is fifth in top stack percentage. They enter the game with a league leading 130 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season.
Minnesota Twins (Joe Ryan) at Houston Astros (Brandon Bielak)
Ryan is a good pitcher in a tough matchup. He has struck out 28.9% of hitters with a 3.32 xFIP this season. Houston has a 100 wRC+ and 21.8% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season, but we should expect the wRC+ to increase as the sample size increases based on how talented the lineup is. Ryan is an interesting GPP option as he is only projected for six percent ownership at $11,100 compared to 19 percent ownership for McClanahan and 30 percent for Zac Gallen in the same price range.
The Twins’ active roster has a 27.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching so there is upside if you’re feeling dangerous and want to roster Bielak, but Minnesota also has a 112 wRC+ and now has a healthy Max Kepler and, former number one overall pick, Royce Lewis in their lineup as well. Lewis remains $2,000 on DraftKings, making him one of the most obvious value hitters on the board. Bielak has struggled with power to both sides of the plate this season, making the Twins a high upside stack given the amount of power in their lineup.
Los Angeles Angels (Tyler Anderson) at Chicago White Sox (Lucas Giolito)
Anderson is cheap, but not likely to be necessary on this slate. Gioito is a bit more interesting as he is projected for about nine percent ownership at $9,200. Giolito isn’t the same pitcher he was a couple of years ago, but he still has a 23.9% strikeout rate this season. The Angels’ active roster has a 23.4% strikeout rate and 106 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Giolito has been vulnerable against left-handed power, allowing a .244 xISO to lefties this season. Mickey Moniak, Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Matt Thaiss are the likely left-handed bats for the Angels.
New York Yankees (Nestor Cortes) at Seattle Mariners (Logan Gilbert)
We have two solid to excellent pitchers squaring off in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball. Cortes has struggled a bit this season with a 4.78 FIP, but he does still have a respectable 23.2% strikeout rate and he is only $8,600 on a slate where most of the mid-range pitching has some flaws. Gilbert is more expensive at $10,200, but he has been dominant this season with a 29.6% strikeout rate, 4.3% walk rate, 2.79 FIP and 3.03 xFIP. Neither matchup is ideal, but the park helps to mitigate power and feature two of the most popular MLB DFS value offenses.
Colorado Rockies (Kyle Freeland) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Zac Gallen)
Gallen stands out as the top pitching option on the slate. He is one of the most talented pitchers and also has one of the best matchups possible. Colorado’s active roster has a 93 wRC+ and 22.3 percent strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching this season- and that includes games that were played in Coors Field. Gallen has struck out 28.3% of the hitters he has faced with a 2.10 FIP and 3.15 xFIP this season. The Diamondbacks’ active roster has a 106 wRC+ against left-handed pitching since the start of last season and has a 5.4 implied run total tonight against Freeland and the Rockies’ bullpen. Christian Walker in particular looks like a strong play, but there is plenty of upside in the lineup from top to bottom.
Atlanta Braves (Bryce Elder) at Oakland Athletics (JP Sears)
Elder’s 21.5% strikeout rate this season doesn’t quite warrant his $9,300 price tag, but his 3.46 FIP combined with a matchup against the Athletics in the Oakland Coliseum makes up for it. The A’s have a 25% strikeout rate and an 87 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Sears has been good at striking hitters out, but he does give up a lot of power as well. He has allowed a .256 xISO to right-handed hitters this season and will have to contend with an Atlanta lineup that has a ton of right-handed power. Ronald Acuna, Sean Murphy and Austin Riley stand out the most, but don’t sleep on lower owned left-handed bats like Matt Olson or Michael Harris to lower the total ownership of your stacks. Sears has been good against lefties but, ideally, he won’t be in the game long and Olson and Harris can get plenty of swings against Oakland’s terrible bullpen.
Pittsburgh Pirates (Johan Oviedo) at San Francisco Giants (John Brebbia/Sean Manaea)
This looks like one of the least appealing games overall. We do have two cheap pitchers in Oviedo and Manaea that will be pitching in a park that suppresses power so they are viable as punt SP2 options in large field tournaments, but neither one should be relied on too heavily. The Giants have a 4.6 implied run total, but there are plenty of offenses that are more likely to succeed and have more homerun friendly environments.
Washington Nationals (Jake Irvin) at Los Angeles Dodgers (Tony Gonsolin)
This game features the team with the lowest implied run total (Washington) against the team with the highest implied run total (Los Angeles). Gonsolin is a viable mid-range SP2 at $8,000. He typically struggles to work deep into games, completing six innings just once this season, but he has thrown at least 80 pitches in five straight starts. Washington is tied for the second lowest wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season, though they are a difficult team to strikeout.
Irvin doesn’t project as a quality Major League pitcher and he has struggled so far with the Nationals, producing a 5.92 FIP and 6.04 xFIP. The Dodgers have one of the most talented lineups in baseball and this matchup is about as good as it can get.
